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LSU vs. Arkansas football picks: What the oddsmakers say

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LSU vs. Arkansas football picks: What the oddsmakers say


SEC football returns under the lights this weekend as No. 8 LSU goes on the road against Arkansas in a battle between teams coming off big conference victories. Let’s check in with the early predictions for the game from the nation’s oddsmakers.

LSU moved up in the rankings after a statement overtime victory against Ole Miss, capping off a five-game win streak, and moving to 2-0 in SEC play.

Arkansas is 12 combined points away from being undefeated and coming off the win of its season after knocking off then-No. 4 Tennessee at home, moving to 2-1 in SEC games.

What do the wiseguys expect from this SEC matchup?

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Let’s take a look at the early predictions for LSU vs. Arkansas, according to the oddsmakers.

So far, the books are siding with the road team, but by a slim margin.

LSU is a 3 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for LSU at -150 and for Arkansas at +130 to win outright.

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LSU: -3 (-110)
Arkansas: +3 (-110)

Over 54.5 points: -110
Under 54.5 points: -110

LSU is 2-4 against the spread (33.3%) overall this season …

Arkansas is 5-1 (83.3%) ATS in ‘24 …

The total went over in 15 of LSU’s last 20 games …

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LSU is 4-12-1 against the spread in its last 17 games against Arkansas …

The total went under in 6 of the Hogs’ last 7 games at home against LSU …

LSU is 1-4 against the spread as a 3-point or greater favorite in 2024 …

Arkansas is 3-0 against the spread as 3-point or greater underdogs this season …

LSU’s offense is highly productive when throwing the football, ranking 6th in FBS with 337 yards per game on average, but 100th in rushing production with 123 yards per game.

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Garrett Nussmeier is completing 64.3 percent of his pass attempts with 1,989 yards, averaging 8 yards per attempt, while scoring 18 touchdowns with 6 interceptions. He’s been sacked just twice.

Kyren Lacy leads LSU with 6 of the team’s 18 receiving touchdowns, and is first with 463 yards off 30 grabs for a 15.4 yard per catch average.

Aaron Anderson has 3 touchdown catches off 30 receptions with 452 yards.

Zavion Thomas and Trey’Dez Green each have 2 touchdown catches, while tight end Mason Taylor and wideout Kyle Parker each have one.

LSU averaged 4.7 yards per carry with Caden Durham leading the backfield, rushing for 281 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Josh Williams is right behind with 200 yards and another 3 scores.

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Nussmeier has added 3 rushing touchdowns on 8 carries.

Arkansas is 24th in FBS with 285.3 passing yards per game on average and ranks 34th nationally with 199 rushing yards per game, while scoring 33 points per game, good for 40th in the nation.

Taylen Green is completing 56.6 percent of his pass attempts, throwing 5 touchdowns against 5 interceptions and has been sacked 13 times while covering 1,502 yards in the air.

Green is second on the team with 326 rushing yards and 4 of the Razorbacks’ 20 rushing touchdowns.

Ja’Quinden Jackson has 10 of those scores on the ground, averaging 5.7 yards per carry while running for 586 yards off 99 carries.

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Braylen Russel has scored twice off 24 carries and reserve quarterback Malachi Singleton has 2 rushing touchdowns on 8 carries while hitting 71 percent of his throws in backup work.

Five Arkansas players have caught touchdown passes, and while Andrew Armstrong isn’t one of them, he leads the team with 552 yards off 38 receptions.

Bettors are almost evenly split on how to project this game, according to the spread consensus picks.

But it’s LSU that’s getting majority support, as 51 percent of bets predict it will win the game and cover the spread.

The other 49 percent of wagers suggest that Arkansas will either win in an upset or stay within the line.

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The game’s implied score suggests a narrow win for the Tigers over the Razorbacks.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that LSU will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 29 to 26.

Our early pick: LSU -3 … Nussmeier and the LSU receivers should find angles against a vulnerable Arkansas secondary, but not without the Tigers’ susceptible front seven letting the Hogs break through and gain some momentum on the ground first.

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 6 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

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Arkansas

Arkansas basketball greats make appearance in Pine Bluff for ‘Tip-Off Tour’ practice | Whole Hog Sports

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Arkansas basketball greats make appearance in Pine Bluff for ‘Tip-Off Tour’ practice | 
  Whole Hog Sports


PINE BLUFF — Razorbacks past and present from South Arkansas were brought together Sunday at the Pine Bluff Convention Center.

Before an estimated crowd of 3,500 watched Coach John Calipari’s first Arkansas men’s basketball team hold an open practice, an honorary starting five of U.S. Reed, Andrew Lang, Ken Biley, Chris Walker and Ernie Murry were introduced to the fans.

Todd Day — the Razorbacks’ all-time leading scorer with 2,395 points and a former NBA player — also was introduced as the team’s sixth man.

Those six played for either Eddie Sutton or Nolan Richardson (Lang played for both) at Arkansas. Sutton and Richardson are Naismith Memorial Basketball of Hall of Fame inductees as coaches, as is Calipari.

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Sutton led Arkansas to the 1978 Final Four and NCAA Tournaments appearances in his final 9 of 11 seasons on the job. Richardson led the Razorbacks to their lone national championship in 1994, a runner-up finish in 1995 and the 1990 Final Four.

“This program did not start with me,” Calipari, who was Kentucky’s coach the previous 15 seasons, said after Sunday’s practice. “I just happen to rent the seat.

“What Eddie Sutton did, what Coach Richardson did, what the other coaches did, you want to make sure you’re tying everybody into this.”

More from WholeHogSports: Multiple Arkansas basketball players withheld from Hot Springs practice with focus on season readiness

Reed, a four-year starting guard for Arkansas from Pine Bluff High School, is best-remembered for hitting a last-second, half-court shot that lifted Arkansas to a 74-73 victory over Louisville in the 1981 NCAA Tournament.

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“This is great for the city, great for the state, great for the kids,” Reed said of Arkansas having a practice in his hometown. “As former players, it’s great for us to see this as well.”

The Razorbacks played games annually in the Pine Bluff Convention Center from the 1977-78 through 1992-93 seasons before Walton Arena opened on the Arkansas campus.

“This is a historic place for Razorback basketball,” Reed said. “There are a lot of great memories here. For people in the Delta and this part of the state to see the Razorbacks means a lot.”

Lang, an Arkansas center from 1985-88, was a McDonald’s All-American at Pine Bluff Dollarway High School.

“I remember seeing Arkansas beat North Carolina in this building,” Lang said, referring to the Razorbacks’ 65-64 victory over the No. 1 Tar Heels in 1984. “I remember playing Ohio State in this building.”

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Lang, who played 12 seasons in the NBA, helped the Razorbacks beat the Buckeyes 79-70 in overtime during the 1985-86 season when he was a sophomore.

“I love it that the Razorbacks have come back to Pine Bluff,” said Murry, a guard from nearby Wabbeska who played on the Razorbacks’ 1990 Final Four team. “They haven’t been here in more than 30 years.”

Murry lives in Bryant and is executive director of the nonprofit organization SOAR, which stands for Students Of Achievement and Responsibility and provides students in the Pine Bluff area after-school academic, social and spiritual programs.

“Ernie Murry is my best friend and called and said, ‘Hey, man, the Razorbacks are coming to Pine Bluff. You need to come back,’ ” said Biley, who starred at Pine Bluff High School.

Biley, a district manager for H&R Block in Houston, made the 8 1/2-hour drive to Pine Bluff on Sunday.

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“I left Houston at 4:30 a.m.,” Biley said. “But it was worth it to be here and see the Razorbacks.”

In Biley’s final game at Arkansas, he started against Duke in the 1994 NCAA Tournament championship game, guarded Blue Devils All-American Grant Hill and held him scoreless the first five minutes as the Razorbacks went on to win 76-72.

“Great memories playing here in the Pine Bluff Convention Center,” Biley said. “I played in the King Cotton Classic and then as a Razorback.

“To have the Razorbacks back, this is what a lot of people here in Southeast Arkansas have been waiting for. I had to be here to be a part of this and welcome the Razorbacks and Coach Cal to Pine Bluff, Arkansas.”

Some of the current Razorbacks were held out of Sunday’s practice or did limited work without contact, including senior guard Johnell Davis, senior forward Jonas Aidoo and junior forward Adou Thiero. They also sat out or didn’t go full speed Saturday when the Razorbacks practiced in Hot Springs.

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As Calipari told the crowds at both practices, he’d rather have the players who are banged up ready for the start of the season than risk aggravating injuries now.

A group of nine players went through the entire practices Saturday and Sunday — led by junior forward Trevon Brazile, sophomore guard D.J. Wagner, sophomore forward Zvonimir Ivisic, freshman guard Boogie Fland and freshman forward Karter Knox and Billy Richmond — and worked against the graduate assistants on staff.

“To do this on back-to-back days, to do it a little undermanned where some guys are on the court the whole time, I’m amazed what we’re getting done,” Calipari said.

In addition to driving from Fayetteville to Hot Springs and then to Pine Bluff and going through two practices, the Razorbacks took part in photo and autograph sessions as well as donating 3,000 shoes at two Samaritan’s Feet events.

“I’m kind of proud of them,” Calipari said. “And hopefully it gives the people throughout the state a chance to see who our players are and then what the program is about, which is reaching out into the community.”

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Calipari wore a red pullover for Saturday’s and Sunday’s practices after being in Kentucky blue for so long.

“I’m used to it now,” Reed said of seeing Calipari in Razorback colors. “He looks good in red.”

Lang and Walker — who went to Pine Bluff High School and as an Arkansas senior played on the Razorbacks’ only SEC Tournament championship team in 2000 — traveled from Atlanta to Pine Bluff for Sunday’s event.

“The Razorbacks are coming to my hometown,” said Walker, who works in phone technology. “I can’t help but support that and be a part of it. It’s beautiful for the city of Pine Bluff to have the Razorbacks here.”

Lang retired after 20 years as an ordained minister — including serving as chaplain for the Atlanta Hawks, one of his former NBA teams — and now works in real estate.

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“Meeting Cal, he personally received me with open arms,” Lang said. “I can’t tell you how much that means to me. I wish him nothing but the best. I think the state is very lucky to have him.”

Calipari, hired at Arkansas on April 10, led Kentucky to the Final Four four times and won the 2012 national championship. He also had Final Four teams at Massachusetts and Memphis.

“We’re glad to have Coach Cal as part of Razorback Nation,” said Reed, who lives in Maumelle and works in fund-raising for the University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff. “It’s really a blessing to have him on our side.

“You feel like we’re back on top with the Arkansas name. The national respect is back. It was a blessing to see his team in Pine Bluff.”

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ESPN Predicts Winner of Arkansas, LSU for Battle of Golden Boot

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ESPN Predicts Winner of Arkansas, LSU for Battle of Golden Boot


FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Two weeks after a home upset of then No. 4 Tennessee behind an impressive defensive effort, Arkansas will look to slow down an LSU offense which ranks among the leagues best in productivity.

The Tigers average over 34 points which is good for sixth 6 in the SEC and generates 460 yards per game which is No. 5 in conference. LSU just got some momentum by somehow managing a 29-26 overtime win against the Rebels that kept them from being another two-loss team.

Razorbacks linebacker Xavian Sorey celebrates after a play in a loss to Oklahoma State.

Arkansas Razorbacks linebacker Xavian Sorey celebrates after a play in a loss to Oklahoma State. / Craven Whitlow-Hogs on SI Images

LSU is given a 54% chance to defeat Arkansas inside Razorback Stadium one day after all but ending Ole Miss’ College Football Playoff hopes.

Here’s an ESPN Analytics breakdown between Arkansas and LSU from its Football Power Index table. Both programs have respectable offensive and defensive units but have struggled in the special teams department.

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Arkansas

LSU

ESPN FPI Ranking

No. 25

No. 14

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Overall Efficiency

No. 29 (72.3)

No. 26 (74.8)

Offensive Efficiency

No. 35 (66.5)

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No. 8 (82.7)

Defensive Efficiency

No. 24 (72.5)

No. 49 (60.5)

Special Teams Efficiency

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No. 92 (43.2)

No. 120 (33.7)

Conference Champion %

0.3%

4.2%

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Playoff %

2.4%

26.4%

National Champion Game %

0.1%

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2.1%

Win Playoff %

0%

0.8%

Final Record Prediction

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7-5

8-4

Arkansas has won three of its previous five games with both losses coming by one possession with leads in the fourth quarter. Coach Sam Pittman shared a belief in his team that if turnovers were prevented, his Razorbacks could beat any team in the country.

“The defense ended up keeping us into it and ended up winning it for us,” Pittman told ESPN after the game. “Travis Williams and the [defensive staff] had them ready to play. They played hard the entire night and we didn’t turn the ball over. If we are the same with turnovers, we can beat anybody in the country and we proved that tonight.”

Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman celebrating with fans on the field after a 19-14 win over Tennessee

Arkansas Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman celebrating with fans on the field after a 19-14 win over the Tennessee Volunteers at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. / Michael Morrison-Hogs on SI Images

Last weeks zero in the turnover column helped preserve a home win that took quite a bit of heat off Pittman’s seat. Winning not only a rivalry game but bringing the Golden Boot trophy home against LSU would do well from a recruiting standpoint and program trajectory.

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Before the season, the Razorbacks ranked No. 44 overall but due to the strength of the conference and continued to climb even in a losses at Oklahoma State and Texas A&M in Arlington. If Arkansas can take care of business against LSU Saturday then conversations of the Hogs’ program being back on track will pick up major steam.

• Three storylines for Razorbacks ahead of LSU game

• Pittman’s time to make important quarterback decision running short

• Arkansas can’t afford another field storm, but here’s who should pay if they do

• Former Razorback quarterback benched for true freshman

• Singleton up to task if Arkansas can do one basic thing

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LSU ranked No. 8, setting up first for Arkansas football | Whole Hog Sports

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LSU ranked No. 8, setting up first for Arkansas football | 
  Whole Hog Sports


FAYETTEVILLE — For the first time in 10 years — and the first time ever on campus — the Arkansas Razorbacks will host top-10 football opponents in consecutive games.

LSU will bring the No. 8 ranking in The Associated Press Top 25 poll when the Tigers play at Reynolds Razorback Stadium on Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 6 p.m. and the game will be televised by ESPN. 

Arkansas (4-2, 2-1 SEC) upset then-No. 4 Tennessee 19-14 on Oct. 5. The Razorbacks enter the LSU game coming off of an open week. 

LSU (5-1, 2-0) moved up five places in the AP poll Sunday following its 29-26 victory over then-No. 9 Ole Miss in overtime. 

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Playing back-to-back games against teams in the top 10 is rare for the Razorbacks, and even rarer when it happens at home. This will be only the third instance of consecutive top-10 games in the state of Arkansas, counting games at Reynolds Razorback Stadium or War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock. 

In October 2014, Arkansas lost 14-13 to No. 7 Alabama in Fayetteville and 45-32 to No. 10 Georgia in Little Rock in back-to-back weeks. That was part of a three-game stretch against top-10 opponents, beginning with a 35-28 loss to No. 6 Texas A&M in Arlington, Texas. 

In October 1979, Arkansas defeated No. 2 Texas 17-14 in Little Rock and lost to No. 6 Houston 13-10 in Fayetteville the following week. 

The Razorbacks last played consecutive top-10 opponents in 2021 when they defeated No. 7 Texas A&M 20-10 in Arlington and lost 37-0 the following week at No. 2 Georgia. In 16 previous instances of playing back-to-back games against top-10 teams, the Razorbacks have never won both games, as they will have a chance to do against the Tigers this week. 

LSU is among eight ranked teams in the latest AP poll, which is led by No. 1 Texas for the second week in a row. Also ranked is Georgia (5), Alabama (7), LSU, Tennessee (11), Texas A&M (14), Ole Miss (18) and Missouri (19). 

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There will be two high-profile matchups in the league this week — Georgia at Texas and Alabama at Tennessee. 

Vanderbilt, which has won back-to-back games over Alabama and Kentucky, has the most vote points for any team that is not ranked in the poll. The Commodores were edged by undefeated Navy for the final spot in the poll. 

Arkansas is receiving votes in the poll for the second week in a row. The Razorbacks had the 34th-most points this week, or ninth among unranked teams. 

The Big Ten has six ranked teams, including Nos. 2, 3, 4 — Oregon, Penn State and Ohio State. 

AP Top 25 Football Poll, Oct. 13

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1. Texas (6-0)

2. Oregon (6-0)

3. Penn State (6-0)

4. Ohio State (5-1)

5. Georgia (5-1)

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6. Miami (6-0)

7. Alabama (5-1)

8. LSU (5-1)

9. Iowa State (6-0)

10. Clemson (5-1)

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11. Tennessee (5-1)

12. Notre Dame (5-1)

13. BYU (6-0)

14. Texas A&M (5-1)

15. Boise State (5-1)

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16. Indiana (6-0)

17. Kansas State (5-1)

18. Ole Miss (5-2)

19. Missouri (5-1)

20. Pittsburgh (6-0)

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21. SMU (5-1)

22. Illinois (5-1)

23. Army (6-0)

24. Michigan (4-2)

25. Navy (5-0)

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