Grant Lancaster

Grant Lancaster covers crime, policing and breaking news for the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. A Little Rock native, his articles focus primarily on crime and law enforcement efforts in Pulaski County, although he reports on other parts of the state as well.

Arkansas is one of the tallest and most athletic teams Texas Tech has faced all year, presenting a host of potential challenges. The Red Raiders only have two bigs, so foul trouble is something to keep in mind ahead of Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup.

How to watch No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 Arkansas

• What: West Regional, Sweet 16
• Venue: Chase Center — San Francisco
• Time: 10:09 p.m. ET, Thursday
• TV: TBS/truTV
• Streaming: Max, Mad Madness Live app
• Watching in-person? Get tickets on StubHub.

Dive into March Madness with The Athletic
Projecting the bracket | March Madness 2025 | Sweet 16 power rankings

Arkansas’ road to get here was interesting. The Razorbacks were outplayed by Kansas but won, then benefited from playing a St. John’s team that couldn’t make shots.

Fortunately for Arkansas, the Red Raiders haven’t shot the ball well either this tournament, though they showed against Drake that they are a balanced offense led by JT Toppin and Darrion Williams.

Arkansas is 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Texas Tech is fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency, so something has to give.

The Razorbacks are top 150 in defensive turnover percentage, but the Red Raiders have only turned it over 12 times in two tournament games and haven’t turned it over 10 times or more since Feb. 18 against TCU.

Tech will need to make shots to slow down Arkansas’ physical defense to move to the Elite Eight. It would also make sense to continue to let Williams and Elijah Hawkins operate in the pick-and-roll with Toppin.

There are no Cinderella teams left in the field, but 10-seed Arkansas is hot at the right time and looking to keep rolling.

Texas Tech vs. Arkansas odds

Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Elijah Hawkins and JT Toppin: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

No. 10 seed Arkansas is the lone double digit seed into the second weekend of the 2025 NCAA Tournament after stunning No. 2 seed St. John’s. 

The Razorbacks are in the Sweet 16, set to face No. 3 seed Texas Tech in the West Region semifinals on Thursday night in San Francisco, California. The Red Raiders are paced by an elite offense that has Big 12 Player of the Year J.T. Toppin patrolling the rim on both sides of the floor. 

Can Arkansas pull another upset? Or will Texas Tech continue to emerge as a Final Four threat?

Here’s our betting preview. 

Spread

Moneyline

Total: 147.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Arkansas

DJ Wagner: The Kentucky transfer has given the Razorbacks some on-ball juice in the NCAA Tournament, providing downhill penetration as well as sound shot creation for others as he has 10 assists over the pair of postseason wins. Can Wagner shine again against a formidable Texas Tech defense?

Texas Tech

JT Toppin: The Big 12 Player of the Year has been unstoppable in the NCAA Tournament, averaging more than 18 points per game with nearly 12 rebounds and two blocks. He is an elite finisher around the rim and an imposing threat defending it and cleaning the glass. 

I like Texas Tech to take care of business in the Sweet 16 against an Arkansas team that faced two incredibly limited offenses in the first two rounds. 

The Razorbacks got to the second weekend in close games, two teams that were poor shooting teams, primarily from the perimeter with Kansas ranked 77th in effective field goal percentage and St. John’s ranked 262nd.

Arkansas has been able to lean on its overall talent and pedigree to outlast those teams, but that won’t be the case against a spaced out Texas Tech offense that is 29th in the country in effective field goal percentage. 

Texas Tech is a loaded two-way roster with superior shot making, but also the physicality on the defensive side of the ball around Toppin and veteran forward Darrion Williams that ranks top 100 in the country in defensive rebounding rate. 

The Razorbacks will need to run on the Red Raiders to get easy buckets in transition, but the team is an elite transition denial team and forces teams to operate in the halfcourt, which will shift this game towards the favorite, who is in line to cover the spread.

PICK: Texas Tech -5.5 (-118, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $200 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.