ALABAMA — Forecasters are closely watching a developing weather pattern that could bring impactful winter weather to parts of Alabama this weekend, particularly across the northern half of the state. While confidence is growing that a significant system will affect the Deep South, meteorologists stress it is still too early to pin down the exact impacts.

According to ABC 33/40 Chief Meteorologist James Spann, Alabama will remain dry through Tuesday with sunny skies and cold temperatures. Highs on Monday will range from the 40s in North Alabama to the 50s farther south, with some colder spots in North Alabama dropping into the upper teens early Tuesday morning.

Clouds will begin increasing on Wednesday, with a chance for light rain in northwest Alabama by the afternoon. Showers are possible Thursday and Friday as well, with highs generally in the 50s.

Attention then turns to the weekend.

Global forecast models are indicating a potentially high-impact winter weather setup for Saturday. Cold air is expected to drop south from Canada while a developing low-pressure system forms in the Gulf of Mexico, a combination that often leads to wintry precipitation across the Deep South.

Spann says the highest chance for impactful winter weather Saturday will be across the northern half of Alabama. The main window for possible wintry precipitation in North Alabama currently appears to be from midnight Friday night through midnight Saturday night. Some snow could mix in over the Tennessee Valley, where colder air would be deeper, but freezing rain is a major concern if the system develops as currently projected.

A long duration of freezing rain can lead to an ice storm, which is typically the most disruptive type of winter weather in Alabama due to ice accumulation on roads, trees, and power lines. However, Spann cautions that while model agreement is fairly good this far out, the forecast could still change, and the system could end up producing only cold rain.

The National Weather Service echoes that uncertainty but notes the overall setup is becoming more concerning. Forecasters describe a “textbook winter overrunning pattern,” with cold air at the surface and moisture riding over the top from the Gulf. While there is good agreement on the large-scale pattern, there is still poor consensus on exact timing, temperatures, and precipitation types.

Because the system is still several days away, meteorologists say it is far too early to forecast specific impacts such as road conditions or power outages. More detailed information is expected by Thursday as confidence in the forecast improves.

Regardless of how the weekend system evolves, Sunday is expected to be dry and cold, with highs in the 30s and 40s. Looking ahead, long-range models suggest another surge of very cold air could arrive by the middle of next week, potentially bringing lows in the teens to parts of North Alabama.

Residents are encouraged to stay informed and monitor forecast updates throughout the week as meteorologists continue to track the potential winter weather threat.