DRY DAYS: Alabama’s weather won’t change much through Tuesday — mostly sunny days, fair nights. Highs will be in the low 90s, lows in the 60s. This is clearly the easy part of the forecast.

The challenge begins over the latter part of next week, as our weather will all depend on any potential tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. The weather could be very wet and windy one week from today (Sept. 27), or it could be warm and dry. We will have much better clarity in a few days as the system begins to take shape in the southern Gulf.

TROPICS: A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week. The chance of development is now 50% (based on the new National Hurricane Center outlook this afternoon).

We are beginning to see better agreement in global model trends; the tropical system that forms should ultimately lift northward in the direction of the northern Gulf Coast. It is still way too early to know the final outcome in terms of timing, placement, intensity and impact.

This could be anything from a broad tropical low and rainmaker to a high-impact hurricane. Impact could come anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. Those along the Gulf Coast (and those planning a trip to the coast) need to pay attention to tropical updates in coming days. Once the low actually forms and we get data from hurricane hunter flights, forecasts will become much more specific.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: The sky will be clear for the high school games across the state tonight with temperatures falling into the 70s.

Saturday, Auburn hosts Arkansas (2:30 p.m. kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The sky will be sunny with temperatures in the low 90s at kickoff, falling into the 80s by the fourth quarter.

Jacksonville State hosts Southern Miss (2 p.m. kickoff) at AmFirst Stadium. Expect a sunny sky with a kickoff temperature near 90 degrees.

Troy hosts Florida A&M Saturday (6 p.m. kickoff). The sky will be clear with temperatures about 88 degrees at kickoff and mid 70s by the final whistle.

ON THIS DATE IN 1909: A large, deadly Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana, during the late evening. The states of Louisiana and Mississippi experienced catastrophic damage resulting in 371 deaths.

ON THIS DATE IN 2017: Hurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico as a Category 4 storm. It left the entire island without power and nearly 3,000 people dead over the next several months.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.