Much of the week has been spent pouring over SEC tiebreaker rules and trying to apply them to the season’s remaining regular season games. Before Saturday’s slate of games, one very realistic scenario had an eight-team first place SEC tie going down. Does a five-way tie change much?

Going into today’s action, if every SEC favorite won over the next three weeks and Arkansas beats Missouri, it would be LSU is in the SEC Championship Game vs. the winner of Texas and A&M.

That won’t happen now. LSU laid another huge egg in Gainesville in a 27-16 loss to the Gators. This was LSU’s third loss in a row, third conference loss and fourth loss on the season. The Tigers are out of any consideration for the postseason beyond bowl games.

While LSU’s loss clears up some of the SEC playoff picture, Georgia’s win over Tennessee actually muddles it a little more.

A Tennessee win would have basically eliminated the Georgia Bulldogs and given the Vols a very clear path to the SEC championship game. Instead, Georgia’s 31-17 win over Tennessee leaves the ‘Dawgs alive for the SEC title game. The Vols join the group with two losses.

ATHENS, GEORGIA – NOVEMBER 16: Head coach Josh Heupel of the Tennessee Volunteers shakes hands with head coach Kirby Smart of the Georgia Bulldogs following the game at Sanford Stadium on November 16, 2024 in Athens, Georgia. Georgia defeated Tennessee 31-17. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

The SEC teams with two losses are Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Alabama. There are two teams with only one SEC loss — Texas and Texas A&M.

Obviously, the Horns and Aggies play each other so it is only possible for one team to end the season with one SEC loss. There could be zero one-loss teams since Texas and A&M each have a conference game to play before facing each other Thanksgiving weekend. (Trap game alert!)

None of the two-loss teams play each other over the next couple of weeks in conference. In fact, Georgia is actually done with its conference schedule.

Unless there’s a major upset, there would a single one-loss team and five two-loss teams. The two-loss teams will be subject to the SEC tiebreaker rules to produce a champ.

Since Texas is favored in both of its final two games, let’s assume the Longhorns win out and make it to Atlanta. (Obviously, there is much work to do)

SEC tiebreaker rules:

1. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
2. Record vs. common conference opponents
3. Record against the high-place opponent among the tied teams
4. Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents

SEC common opponents:

There are too many teams to apply head-to-head. For the second tiebreaker, if applied to the five two-loss teams, the records would be Ole Miss (1-0), Alabama (1-1), Tennessee (1-1), Georgia (1-2) and Texas A&M (0-0).

• Alabama: beat Georgia but lost to Tennessee
• Georgia: beat Tennessee but lost to Ole Miss and Alabama
• Ole Miss: beat Georgia
• Tennessee: beat Alabama but lost to Georgia
• Texas A&M: hasn’t played any of the other two-loss tied teams

Future SEC Opponents:

• Alabama: Oklahoma (Away), Auburn (Home)
• Georgia: Done
• Ole Miss: Florida (Away), Mississippi State (Home)
• Tennessee: Vanderbilt (Away)
• Texas A&M: Auburn (Away), Texas (Home)

There is no round robin or common opponent for all five teams.

Cumulative conference winning percentage:

That means the deciding tiebreaker would be cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents for the five tied teams. Alabama currently leads those percentages.

1. Alabama (27-26, .509)
2. Georgia (23-28, .451)
3. Texas A&M (23-29, .442)
4. Ole Miss (22-33, .400)
5. Tennessee (21-32, .396)

Most Likely SEC Championship Matchup:

Under those circumstances, the SEC championship game opponents would be Texas and Alabama.

But the percentages could change. If Mississippi State upsets Mizzou next week it could actually change a lot. And as we’ve seen, upsets do happen. This entire model could be thrown out by next Saturday night.

The best thing that can be said about Alabama’s 52-7 win over Mercer is that the Crimson Tide did what fans and media expected it to do.

Alabama rolled to an easy victory, with its starters watching from the sideline for the final quarter of the game.

It’s the type of performance that Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer likely hoped to see following his teams win over then-No. 1 Georgia in September. Instead, the team went on a stretch in which is dropped two of its next three games.

Alabama seemed far more prepared this time, showing its focus immediately following last week’s road win over then-No. 15 LSU.

“The intensity in practice, it’s not like guys are flying off the wall and things like that, but there’s a focus that they bring and there’s a business-like approach where they know they’ve got to do this,” DeBoer said. “They’ve got to eat right, sleep right, do all those things off the field, take care of their business there and it leads to the success that they’ve had.”

The Crimson Tide scored on its first three offensive possessions and the defense scored its first touchdown of the season to boost Alabama to a 28-0 lead midway through the second quarter. The defense forced turnovers on three of Mercer’s first four possessions first four defensive possessions and now has 12 takeaways in its past four games.

Zabien Browns 68-yard scoop and score in the second quarter broke a nine-game drought by the defense which was finally able to breakthrough. Alabama’s last defensive touchdown came in last season’s win against Tennessee, almost 13 months ago.

“For us to get him in the endzone with that long return it was something that was exciting for the whole team because they’ve gotten the takeaways, we just haven’t ended up with one in the endzone like that. I love the mindset, again, just going back to what the defense is doing, they’re attacking. Three and out is what they’re shooting for, but right now, the position they’re putting our offense in, getting points on the board now too, it’s really good.”

Alabama’s offense also took care of business, scoring points in five of its first six possessions of the game. One of those scores was a 44-yard touchdown catch by senior tight end Robbie Outz, his first score of the season and his second touchdown of his college career.

After the game, DeBoer referred to Outz as a “swiss-army knife” type player that often does the dirty work that can be overlooked by the average fan but is essential for the overall success of the offense.

“For Robbie to haul one in, that was really exciting for our guys, exciting for him. I love to see it,” DeBoer said. “He got a chance as a senior to talk to the team last night. You can just tell the love our team has for him, how much they appreciate the effort that he brings, each and every day, not just each and every week, but he’s got a mindset, a toughness about him that just exudes what Alabama football is all about.”

The Crimson Tide collected 508 yards of total offense in the win, it’s third game with more than 500 yards of offense this season.

Alabama (8-2, 4-2 SEC) will travel to Oklahoma (5-5, 1-5 SEC) next Saturday before finishing the regular season at home against Auburn in the Iron Bowl on Saturday, Nov. 30.

Next weeks game in Norman, Okla. is set for 6:30 PM CST on ABC.



A VERY NICE FALL SATURDAY: After a chilly start with early morning lows in the upper 30s to the mid 40s, daytime highs will top out in the upper 60s to the lower 70s under mostly sunny skies.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Auburn vs. Louisiana-Monroe (11:45 a.m. kickoff, Jordan-Hare Stadium) — Expect a bright, sunny sky throughout the game. Temperatures will start in the mid-60s at kickoff and rise to near 70 degrees by the final whistle.

Alabama vs. Mercer (1 p.m. kickoff, Bryant-Denny Stadium) — Sunny conditions will prevail in Tuscaloosa as well. Temperatures during the game will range from 68 to 71 degrees — perfect football weather.

UAB at Memphis (7 p.m. kickoff, Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium) — For the Blazers’ evening game in Memphis, the sky will be clear with crisp conditions. Temperatures will start in the low 60s at kickoff and drop into the low 50s by the fourth quarter.

SUNDAY: Ridging continues to hang out over the Southeast, keeping our weather very nice. We’ll have mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 60s to the mid 70s.

NEXT WEEK: We’ll get one more nice day on Monday before a cold front moves into the state on Tuesday. Skies will be mostly sunny through the daylight hours, with clouds moving in late. Some locations could see showers around or just after midnight. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s.

The cold front will move through Alabama on Tuesday and into the early morning Wednesday, bringing solid rain chances to the state. We also have the potential of the remnants of Tropical Storm Sarah moving up over the Gulf Coast. If that plays out, we’ll have scattered showers and storms over the northern half, with rain and storms likely over the south. The highest coverage looks to take place during the afternoon and evening. Highs will be in the upper 60s to the mid 70s.

We’ll have another low moving across the northern portions of the state on Wednesday that will bring another chance of showers. Any showers look to stay over the Tennessee Valley and north, while the rest of the state will remain dry with mostly sunny skies. Cold air will begin to be pulled into the state, as highs top out in the lower 60s to the lower 70s.

BIG COOLDOWN TO END THE WORK WEEK: On Thursday, we’ll see daytime highs reach only the 50s, while 30s to lower 40s can be expected before sunrise. Widespread 30s can be expected to start the day Friday, and frost advisories will likely be issued. It will remain cool and dry, with highs in the lower 50s to right around 60.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Sara remains largely unchanged, maintaining deep convection north of its center and a tighter band to the west, with winds holding steady at 50 mph. The storm has stalled but is expected to slowly drift westward before moving toward Belize late Sunday as a ridge strengthens to its north. No significant intensification is forecast due to Sara’s broad structure and possible land interaction, with the system likely weakening into a remnant low near the southern Yucatán Peninsula. The primary concern remains catastrophic flash flooding, with significant rainfall already reported along the north coast and mountainous regions of Honduras. The rest of the tropics are quiet.

For more weather news and information from James Spann, Scott Martin and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.