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Opinion: It's not just hype. AI could revolutionize diagnosis in medicine

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Opinion: It's not just hype. AI could revolutionize diagnosis in medicine

The history of medical diagnosis is a march through painstaking observation. Ancient Egyptian physicians first diagnosed urinary tract infections by observing patterns in patients’ urine. To diagnose diseases of the heart and lungs, medieval doctors added core elements of the physical examination: pulse, palpation and percussion. The 20th century saw the addition of laboratory studies, and the 21st century of sophisticated imaging and genetics.

Despite advances, however, diagnosis has largely remained a human endeavor, with doctors relying on so-called illness scripts — clusters of signs, symptoms and diagnostic findings that are hallmarks of a disease. Medical students spend years memorizing such scripts, training themselves to, for example, identify the sub-millimeter variations in electrocardiogram wave measurements that might alert them to a heart attack.

But human beings, of course, err. Sometimes, misdiagnosis occurs because a doctor overlooks something — when the patterns of illness fit the script, but the script is misread. This happens in an estimated 15% to 20% of medical encounters. Other times, misdiagnosis occurs because the illness has features that do not match known patterns — they do not fit the script, such as when a heart attack occurs without telltale symptoms or EKG findings.

Artificial intelligence can help solve these two fundamental problems — if it’s given enough financial support and deployed correctly.

First, AI is less susceptible to common factors that lead doctors to make diagnostic errors: fatigue, lack of time and cognitive bandwidth when treating many patients, gaps of knowledge and reliance on mental shortcuts. Even when illnesses conform to scripts, computers will sometimes be better than humans at identifying details buried within voluminous healthcare data.

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Using AI to improve the accuracy and timeliness with which doctors recognize illness can mean the difference between life and death. Ischemic stroke, for example, is a life-threatening emergency where a blocked artery impedes blood flow to the brain. Brain imaging clinches the diagnosis, but that imaging must be performed and interpreted by a radiologist quickly and accurately. Studies show that AI, through superhuman pattern matching abilities, can identify strokes seconds after imaging is performed — tens of minutes sooner than by often-busy radiologists. Similar capabilities have been demonstrated in diagnosing sepsis, pneumonia, blood clot in the lungs (pulmonary embolism), acute kidney injury and other conditions.

Second, computers can be useful for illnesses for which we haven’t developed the right scripts. AI can, in fact, diagnose disease using new patterns too subtle for humans to identify. Consider, for example, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, a rare genetic condition in which the heart’s muscle has grown more than it should, leading to eventual heart failure and sometimes death. Experts estimate that only 20% of those affected are diagnosed, a process that requires consultation with a cardiologist, a heart ultrasound and often genetic testing. What, then, of the remaining 80%?

Researchers across the country, including at the Mayo Clinic and UC San Francisco, have demonstrated that AI can detect complex, previously unrecognized patterns to identify patients likely to have hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, meaning AI-driven algorithms will be able to screen for the condition in routine EKGs.

AI was able to recognize these patterns after examining the EKGs of many people with and without the disease. The rapid growth in healthcare data — including detailed electronic health records, imaging, genomic data, biometrics and behavioral data — combined with advancements in artificial intelligence technology has created a major opportunity. Because of its unique ability to identify patterns from the data, AI has helped radiologists to find hidden cancers, pathologists to characterize liver fibrosis and ophthalmologists to detect retinal disease.

One challenge is that AI is expensive, requiring large-scale data to train computer algorithms and the technology to do so. As these resources become more ubiquitous, that can make the associated intellectual property difficult to protect, discouraging private investment in these products. More generally, diagnostics have long been considered unattractive investments. Unlike their therapeutic counterparts, which see around $300 billion in research and development investment a year, diagnostics receive a modest $10 billion in private funding.

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Then there’s the question of who pays for the use of AI-based tools in medicine specifically. Some applications, such as detecting strokes, save insurers money (by preventing costly ICU stays and subsequent rehabilitation). These technologies tend to get reimbursed more quickly. But other AI solutions, such as detecting hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, may lead to increased spending on costly downstream therapies to treat newly identified chronic illness. Although the use of AI may improve quality of care and long-term outcomes in such cases, without financial incentives for insurers, reimbursement and thus adoption may be slow.

Life sciences companies have on rare occasion agreed to subsidize development or reimbursement of AI-based diagnostics. This will help bridge the gap, but the federal government may need to play a greater role. Federal support for COVID diagnostics during the pandemic drove rapid development of critical tests, and the cancer moonshot project has helped drive R&D in screening and new treatments.

It is usually tough to marshal funding at the scale needed for new medical frontiers. But the National Academies of Medicine has estimated that tens of billions of dollars and countless lives could be saved from improving diagnosis in medicine.

Artificial intelligence offers a path toward that. It should complement, rather than replace, the human expertise that already saves so many lives. The future of medical diagnosis doesn’t mean handing over the keys to AI but, rather, making use of what it can do that we can’t. This could be a special moment for diagnosis, if we invest enough and do it right.

Gaurav Singal is a computer scientist and physician at Harvard Medical School and was previously the chief data officer of Foundation Medicine, a cancer diagnostics company. Anupam B. Jena is an economist, physician and professor at Harvard Medical School and co-author of “Random Acts of Medicine: The Hidden Forces That Sway Doctors, Impact Patients, and Shape Our Health” and the Random Acts of Medicine Substack.

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Lyrids Meteor Shower: How to Watch, Peak Time and Weather Forecast

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Lyrids Meteor Shower: How to Watch, Peak Time and Weather Forecast

Our universe might be chock-full of cosmic wonder, but you can observe only a fraction of astronomical phenomena with the naked eye. Meteor showers, natural fireworks that streak brightly across the night sky, are one of them.

The latest observable meteor shower will be the Lyrids, which has been active since April 14 and is forecast to continue through April 30. The shower reaches its peak April 21 to 22, or Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

According to NASA, the Lyrids are one of the oldest known meteor showers, and have been enjoyed by stargazers for nearly 3,000 years. Their bright, speedy streaks are caused by the dusty debris from a comet named Thatcher. They appear to spring from the constellation Lyra, which right now can be seen in the eastern sky at night in the Northern Hemisphere.

The moon will be about 27 percent full tonight, appearing as a thick crescent in the sky, according to the American Meteor Society.

To get a hint at when to best watch for the Lyrids, you can use this tool, which relies on data from the Global Meteor Network. It shows fireball activity levels in real time.

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And while you gaze at the heavens, keep an eye out for other stray meteors streaking across the night sky. Skywatchers are reporting that the amount of fireballs is double what is usually seen by this point in the year.

There is a chance you might see a meteor on any given night, but you are most likely to catch one during a shower. Meteor showers are caused by Earth passing through the rubble trailing a comet or asteroid as it swings around the sun. This debris, which can be as small as a grain of sand, leaves behind a glowing stream of light as it burns up in Earth’s atmosphere.

Meteor showers occur around the same time every year and can last for days or weeks. But there is only a small window when each shower is at its peak, which happens when Earth reaches the densest part of the cosmic debris. The peak is the best time to look for a shower. From our point of view on Earth, the meteors will appear to come from the same point in the sky.

The Perseid meteor shower, for example, peaks in mid-August from the constellation Perseus. The Geminids, which occur every December, radiate from the constellation Gemini.

Michelle Nichols, the director of public observing at the Adler Planetarium in Chicago, recommends forgoing the use of telescopes or binoculars while watching a meteor shower.

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“You just need your eyes and, ideally, a dark sky,” she said.

That’s because meteors can shoot across large swaths of the sky, so observing equipment can limit your field of view.

Some showers are strong enough to produce up to 100 streaks an hour, according to the American Meteor Society, though you probably won’t see that many.

“Almost everybody is under a light-polluted sky,” Ms. Nichols said. “You may think you’re under a dark sky, but in reality, even in a small town, you can have bright lights nearby.”

Planetariums, local astronomy clubs or even maps like this one can help you figure out where to go to escape excessive light. The best conditions for catching a meteor shower are a clear sky with no moon or cloud cover, sometime between midnight and sunrise. (Moonlight affects visibility in the same way as light pollution, washing out fainter sources of light in the sky.) Make sure to give your eyes at least 30 minutes to adjust to seeing in the dark.

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Ms. Nichols also recommends wearing layers, even during the summer. “You’re going to be sitting there for quite a while, watching,” she said. “It’s going to get chilly, even in August.”

Bring a cup of cocoa or tea for even more warmth. Then lie back, scan the sky and enjoy the show.

Storm systems sweep across the country in early spring, and some will be obscuring skies tonight. But there will still be plenty of areas with clear skies, particularly in parts of the central United States.

“The best spot is going to be in the Upper Midwest,” said Rich Bann, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center.

Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa will offer especially good sky-viewing weather and a beach on the Great Lakes could be a nice spot to look up at the stars.

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But don’t expect to view the show from Chicago, as Illinois could see some thunderstorms. The weather will be better in the Northern and Central Plains, particularly the eastern Dakotas.

High, wispy clouds are expected over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. But, Mr. Bann said, “you may be able to see some shooting stars through thin clouds.”

Clouds will be draped across much of the Southeast and the Northeast, though there could be some clearing in Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia. Remember, the meteors could be visible all night long. If you look outside and see clouds, try again later.

Catching the spectacle will be challenging across much of the West, particularly from Washington into Northern California, where a storm system is bringing rain and snow. That system will move east overnight.

There are likely to be some pockets of clear skies at times across southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southwest Utah, Mr. Bann said.

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Amy Graff contributed reporting.

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FBI probes cases of missing or dead scientists, including four from the L.A. area

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FBI probes cases of missing or dead scientists, including four from the L.A. area

Amid growing national security concerns, the FBI said Tuesday that it has launched a broad investigation in the deaths or disappearances of at least 10 scientists and staff connected to highly sensitive research, including four from the Los Angeles area.

“The FBI is spearheading the effort to look for connections into the missing and deceased scientists. We are working with the Department of Energy, Department of War, and with our state and state and local law enforcement partners to find answers,” the agency said in a statement.

The FBI’s announcement comes after the House Oversight Committee announced that it would investigate reports of the disappearance and deaths of the scientists, sending letters seeking information from the agencies involved in the federal inquiry as well as NASA, which owns the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge, where three of the missing or dead scientists worked.

“If the reports are accurate, these deaths and disappearances may represent a grave threat to U.S. national security and to U.S. personnel with access to scientific secrets,” Reps. James Comer (R-Ky.), chairman of the committee, and Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) wrote in the letters.

President Trump told reporters last week that he had been briefed on the missing and dead scientists, which he described as “pretty serious stuff.” He said at the time that he expected answers on whether the deaths were connected “in the next week and a half.”

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Michael David Hicks, who studied comets and asteroids at JPL, was the first of the scientists who disappeared or died. He died on July 30, 2023, at the age of 59. No cause of death was disclosed.

A year later, JPL physicist Frank Maiwald died at 61, with no cause of death disclosed.

Two other Los Angeles scientists are part of the string of deaths and disappearances.

On June 22, 2025, Monica Jacinto Reza, a materials scientist at JPL, disappeared while on a hike near Mt. Waterman in the San Gabriel Mountains.

On Feb. 16, Caltech astrophysicist Carl Grillmair was fatally shot on the porch of his Llano home. The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s department arrested Freddy Snyder, 29, in connection with the shooting. Snyder had been arrested in December on suspicion of trespassing on Grillmair’s property.

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Snyder has been charged with murder.

There is no evidence at this point that the deaths and disappearances, which occurred over a span of four years, are connected.

A spokesperson for NASA, which owns JPL, said in a statement on X that the agency is “coordinating and cooperating with the relevant agencies in relation to the missing scientists.

“At this time, nothing related to NASA indicates a national security threat,” agency spokesperson Bethany Stevens wrote. “The agency is committed to transparency and will provide more information as able.”

Representatives from Caltech, which manages JPL, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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What’s in a Name? For These Snails, Legal Protection

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What’s in a Name? For These Snails, Legal Protection

The sun had barely risen over the Pacific Ocean when a small motorboat carrying a team of Indigenous artisans and Mexican biologists dropped anchor in a rocky cove near Bahías de Huatulco.

Mauro Habacuc Avendaño Luis, one of the craftsmen, was the first to wade to shore. With an agility belying his age, he struck out over the boulders exposed by low tide. Crouching on a slippery ledge pounded by surf, he reached inside a crevice between two rocks. There, lodged among the urchins, was a snail with a knobby gray shell the size of a walnut. The sight might not dazzle tourists who travel here to see humpback whales, but for Mr. Avendaño, 85, these drab little mollusks represent a way of life.

Marine snails in the genus Plicopurpura are sacred to the Mixtec people of Pinotepa de Don Luis, a small town in southwestern Oaxaca. Men like Mr. Avendaño have been sustainably “milking” them for radiant purple dye for at least 1,500 years. The color suffuses Mixtec textiles and spiritual beliefs. Called tixinda, it symbolizes fertility and death, as well as mythic ties between lunar cycles, women and the sea.

The future of these traditions — and the fate of the snails — are uncertain. The mollusks are subject to intense poaching pressure despite federal protections intended to protect them. Fishermen break them (and the other mollusks they eat) open and sell the meat to local restaurants. Tourists who comb the beaches pluck snails off the rocks and toss them aside.

A severe earthquake in 2020 thrust formerly submerged parts of their habitat above sea level, fatally tossing other mollusks in the snail’s food web to the air, and making once inaccessible places more available to poachers.

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Decades ago, dense clusters of snails the size of doorknobs were easy to find, according to Mr. Avendaño. “Full of snails,” he said, sweeping a calloused, violet-stained hand across the coves. Now, most of the snails he finds are small, just over an inch, and yield only a few milliliters of dye.

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