Science
Monster earthquake could sink swath of California, dramatically heightening flood risk, study says
A long-feared monster earthquake off California, Oregon and Washington could cause some coastal areas to sink by more than 6 feet, dramatically heightening the risk of flooding and radically reshaping the region with little to no warning.
Those are the findings of a new study that examined the repercussions of a massive earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone, which stretches from Northern California up to Canada’s Vancouver Island.
The study, published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, concluded that in an earthquake scenario with the highest level of subsidence, or land sink, the area at risk of flooding would expand by 116 square miles, a swath that’s 2½ times the size of San Francisco.
Such a scenario would more than double “the flooding exposure of residents, structures and roads,” and officials would need to contend with a future of “compromised roadways and bridges,” as well as lifelines and infrastructure that are either more frequently flooded or permanently inundated, the study’s authors wrote.
In other words, a powerful earthquake in this area would risk “drastically altering shorelines and causing profound, lasting impacts to coastal populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems,” the study said. Unlike relative sea-level rise that’s driven more gradually by climate change, a rise resulting from a major earthquake “will happen within minutes, leaving no time for adaptation or mitigation.”
The last megaquake on the Cascadia subduction zone, registering a magnitude 9, occurred in 1700. Based on archaeological evidence, villages sank and had to be abandoned, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
This map shows the location of the Cascadia subduction zone.
(FEMA)
From California’s North Coast to Washington state, scientists say, the next great earthquake — magnitude 8 or higher — could cause land to sink by 1.6 to 6.6 feet, the same range seen during the 1700 earthquake.
Currently, more than 8,000 people live in flood plain areas along estuaries in the Cascadia coastal region. But in the event of a high level of subsidence after an earthquake, that figure would nearly triple to more than 22,000, the study calculates.
Nearly 36,000 structures would be threatened by the resulting quake-influenced flood plain, a 168% increase from the current figure of about 13,000.
And an additional 777 miles of roadway would be in the new flood plain, nearly tripling the at-risk total to 1,212 miles of road.
The flood plain is defined as areas that have at least a 1% chance of flooding each year, which is considered to be “high risk,” according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. These are areas that have at least a 1-in-4 chance of flooding during a 30-year mortgage. Flood insurance must be purchased by home and business owners in high-risk areas with mortgages from federally regulated or insured lenders.
Radiocarbon dating suggests there have been more than 11 great earthquakes off the shore of California’s North Coast, Oregon and Washington state over the last 6,000 to 7,000 years — recurring every 200 to 800 years, the study said.
“Gradual climate-driven sea-level rise is not the only inundation threat,” the study said. “Coastal subsidence from the next great [Cascadia subduction zone] earthquake may produce” more than 3 feet of sudden relative sea-level rise sooner than otherwise expected.
When discussing a future megaquake on the Cascadia subduction zone, “We often hear about the tsunami and the shaking. But there’s the subsidence that’s going to persist — for decades to centuries —after the earthquake, and just totally alter the flood plains,” Tina Dura, assistant professor of geosciences at Virginia Tech and the study’s lead author, said in an interview.
One estimate published by FEMA is that a magnitude 9 earthquake along the full length of the 800-mile fault zone would leave 5,800 dead from the earthquake alone. An additional 8,000 would die from the resulting tsunami that could rise as high as 80 feet and offer coastal areas as few as 10 minutes of warning. Total economic losses could hit $134 billion.
In the 1700 Cascadia megaquake, oral histories describe tsunamis more than 50 feet high wiping out coastal villages. In Anacla, a village on what is now called Vancouver Island, only 1 out of more than 600 people survived, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
The tsunami was so strong that it uprooted trees. When it finally receded, treetops were found strewn with trash and victims’ limbs. “Ghost forests” of rot-resistant trees found in tidal marshes and estuaries in the region are evidence that land sank during the quake and drowned the trees, the USGS said.
The results of the latest study should be a wake-up call to residents and government officials considering a postquake response, scientists say. There already are parts of U.S. Route 101 that routinely flood during exceptionally high king tides, Dura said, “and places like that could be kind of a hot spot for seeing flooding right away after the subsidence” following a megaearthquake.
Another factor officials should consider is whether crucial infrastructure, such as airports, would fall within the quake-expanded flood plain, scientists say.
Authorities may also want to consider avoiding building infrastructure such as schools, fire stations and wastewater treatment plants in areas “that we’ve shown are likely to become in the flood plain,” Dura said.
Notable areas at risk of land sinking after a megaquake along the Cascadia subduction zone, according to the study, include:
- California’s Humboldt Bay region, including the area around Eureka and Arcata.
- In Oregon, Waldport and Bayshore along Alsea Bay; Newport and South Beach along Yaquina Bay; and Gearhart and Seaside along the Necanicum River.
- In Washington, the Willapa Bay area, including the communities of Long Beach, Ocean Park, Tokeland and Raymond; and the Grays Harbor area, including Ocean Shores, Westport and Aberdeen.
Traditionally, scientists and government officials have focused on climate-change-driven sea-level rise to calculate the projected increased risk of coastal flooding. But the study suggests that neglecting the role of major earthquakes would be shortsighted.
“Earthquake-driven coastal subsidence following recent historical earthquakes has had severe consequences for communities, leading to permanent land loss, infrastructure damage and forced relocation,” the study said.
One example was the magnitude 9.1 earthquake off Japan’s east coast in 2011, which caused some land to sink by up to 3 feet. In one area of the town of Ishinomaki, the sinking land forced people to contend with regular flooding, according to news reports.
Another magnitude 9.1 earthquake that struck near Sumatra, Indonesia, in 2004 caused land subsidence of up to 3 feet. Areas used for aquaculture have since suffered chronic tidal flooding, leading to oversalinization, and land has been lost, the study said.
The magnitude 9.2 earthquake in Alaska in1964 caused land to sink by more than 6 feet along the coast, “rendering roads, docks and waterfront areas uninhabitable, in some cases necessitating relocation of communities to higher ground or raising waterfront facilities and airstrips above high tide,” the study said. In some places, the subsidence was even more severe.
Before the magnitude 9.2 earthquake of 1964 in Alaska, the sidewalk in front of stores on the right-hand side of this photo from Anchorage were level with those on the left.
And a magnitude 9.5 earthquake in Chile in 1960 caused up to 8 feet of coastal subsidence, “permanently submerging coastal pine forests and farms and converting them to intertidal marshes, and flooding coastal towns and forcing residents to abandon homes,” the study said.
Besides Dura, there are 19 other co-authors to the study, with affiliations including Singhofen Halff Associates of Orlando, Fla.; the University of Oregon; Rowan University; the University of North Carolina Wilmington; Durham University; the USGS; Cal Poly Humboldt; the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries; the University of Hong Kong; and Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
Science
Why new dads shouldn’t panic about low testosterone
Three months after his son was born, Kevin Maguire felt alone.
It was 2019. He had recently moved to Barcelona with his wife and daughter and was working on marketing projects for Fortune 500 companies. The birth of his son, Bodhi, should have been a joyous event. But Maguire, now 43, became sad and irritable, and didn’t want to be around his newborn. He withdrew from family and friends, often playing video games late into the night or finding excuses to get out of the house.
“I would take the dog out for a walk,” Maguire said. “I wanted to get far away enough that I wouldn’t bump into anyone I knew and I would just sit and cry.”
Desperate for answers, he entered his symptoms online. Maguire, author of the recently published book “The New Fatherhood: Why Everything They Told You About Being a Dad Is Wrong, and How Embracing It Will Transform Your Life,” knew to look for signs of the “baby blues” in his wife. But he was surprised by articles that said men could experience postpartum depression too. The diagnosis resonated and he began writing about his condition and the trials of fatherhood on Substack.
New dads face psychological pressures, from sleepless nights to sky-high bills, which can contribute to postpartum depression. So can shifting hormone levels.
“One thing I found in my lab’s research is that when new dads have really low levels of testosterone, they might report more symptoms of postpartum depression,” said Darby Saxbe, a professor of psychology at USC and author of the recently published “Dad Brain: The New Science of Fatherhood and How It Shapes Men’s Lives.”
While hormonal shifts can create challenges, they also help men adapt to fatherhood, Saxbe explained. Several hormones can spike in men when they become dads, including oxytocin, linked to better relationship quality; vasopressin, associated with emotional bonding; and prolactin, which promotes lactation in women and caregiving behavior in guys.
New dads can also experience a decline in testosterone. According to a 2011 paper from University of Notre Dame professor Lee Gettler, part of the largest study on fatherhood and testosterone ever conducted, men averaged around a 25% drop in testosterone after becoming fathers.
While dads have reasons to be concerned by plummeting levels of testosterone, a modest dip isn’t necessarily a disaster — in fact, it can make men better parents and partners.
“We often get invested in the idea that men should always have the highest possible levels of testosterone,” Saxbe said. “What the research tells us is a little more nuanced. You really want flexibility. You want a hormonal system that can adapt to the different demands of your life.”
The prospect of a decline might scare soon-to-be fathers, especially those on TikTok and Instagram, where accounts push the idea that having “high T” is the key to being a “real man,” according to a recent study in the journal Social Science & Medicine.
Influencers stand to profit persuading men there’s a widespread “masculinity crisis,” the researchers found, noting that 72% of the accounts they analyzed had a stake in testosterone supplements and treatments.
But studies show more testosterone isn’t always better. “We found that when dads have higher testosterone, even before birth, they’re less invested [than men with lower testosterone] in co-parenting a few months after birth,” Saxbe said. High T fathers were more stressed from parenting than their lower T counterparts, and had partners who were less satisfied in their romantic relationships.
This jibes with the challenge hypothesis, which says, in multiple species, testosterone levels rise when males battle for attention from potential mates and go down when it’s time to take care of the young.
While a small decline can be adaptive, dads face mental health risks when their testosterone drops too low.
There is no “normal” level of testosterone, said Dr. Jesse Mills, director of the Men’s Clinic at UCLA Health. Experts recommend that men should consider treatment if their levels dip below 300 nanograms per deciliter (ng/dL). But men metabolize testosterone in different ways, meaning a healthy level for one might be low for another.
“If a new dad comes to me and his testosterone is 298 [ng/dL], he’s below the threshold,” Mills said. “But if he has zero symptoms and everything else is going great — he’s over the moon with his new child, he’s so happy — that’s not somebody I’m going to treat with testosterone.”
He notes that the drop in testosterone fathers experience can partly be attributed to the stresses that come with a new kid: less sleep, a poor diet and fewer trips to the gym. That means there are precautions that expectant fathers can take that don’t involve testosterone replacement therapy (TRT).
Still, while some guys with low testosterone levels might not need TRT, others in the “normal” range could benefit from treatment. (Dads who want another kid soon, beware. Mills notes that testosterone replacement therapy can take a man’s sperm count to zero.)
Both Mills and Saxbe stress that men should be paying attention to symptoms of low testosterone — such as depression and low libido — rather than trying to reach or maintain an ideal number. They also agree that tending to mental health concerns is hugely important for new fathers.
Eventually, after Maguire researched his condition, he recovered after time spent meditating, exercising and bonding with his son.
“A lot of new dads don’t realize how much they’re struggling because they feel ashamed or because they don’t realize it’s common shortly after the birth of a baby,” Saxbe said.
When they struggle, fathers can fixate on testosterone because that’s what modern culture tells them will make them feel better. And sometimes testosterone replacement therapy works. But Saxbe stresses a lot of men could use psychotherapy or support groups that bring dads together, as well as more time bonding with loved ones in general.
“The thing that predicts a man’s well-being and longevity is the quality of his relationships with other people,” said Saxbe. “You can be the world’s best weightlifter. You can have a low body-fat percentage. You can be killing it at work. Those things don’t predict how happy you’re going to be at 80.”
Science
Video: NASA Announces Artemis III Crew
new video loaded: NASA Announces Artemis III Crew
transcript
transcript
NASA Announces Artemis III Crew
NASA announced the crew of Artemis III mission, which will fly to low-Earth orbit to test rendezvous and docking maneuvers with one or two lunar landers.
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“I am excited to welcome you as the next crew in the Artemis journey to successfully return to the moon — this time to stay.” “I’m honored by the role that I’ve been given. I’m also very humbled by the task in front of us. But first and foremost, I’m grateful.” “So with that, the Artemis II crew, comrade, hands you the baton. You got the controls.” “As you know, we had a significant anomaly at our Launch Complex 36A on May 28. We’ve redoubled our efforts and are moving forward.”
By Alisa Shodiyev Kaff
June 9, 2026
Science
Santa Monica Mountains’ last steelhead trout survived the Palisades fire — and even had babies
Scientists feared the Santa Monica Mountains’ last remaining steelhead trout were dead, smothered by debris flows unleashed by the Palisades fire.
But the endangered fish surprised them: A team of biologists recently spotted 30 of the rare trout — and 21 babies — in Topanga Creek.
“There was a lot of happy dancing in the creek,” said Rosi Dagit, principal conservation biologist for the Resource Conservation District of the Santa Monica Mountains, which works with public and private landowners to conserve natural resources.
That’s because the steelhead here are endangered, at both the state and federal levels. Once, they swam in most streams of the Santa Monicas, but their numbers plummeted amid overfishing and coastal development. Increasingly frequent wildfire has further stressed their habitat. Topanga Creek, a biodiversity hot spot, is home to their last known population in the mountains that stretch from the Hollywood Hills to Point Mugu in Ventura County.
The trout that were spotted, including this one, are part of a distinct Southern California population that’s listed as endangered at the state and federal levels.
(RCDSMM Stream Team)
The California Department of Fish and Wildlife spearheaded a complex mission to rescue trout threatened by the Palisades fire that sparked in January 2025.
Time was of the essence. The fire hadn’t yet been fully contained. But rain was on the way, which would sweep massive amounts of sediment from the denuded hillsides into the water. Fish are often killed this way.
Crews stunned the fish with electricity, scooped them up in buckets, trucked them to a hatchery and ultimately moved them to Arroyo Hondo Creek in Santa Barbara County.
Within days, Topanga Creek was choked with mud. Some assumed the fish left behind were goners.
But in March, the conservation district’s team found four. The following month, when water conditions were clearer, they saw more.
“These fish continue to amaze me,” said Kyle Evans, environmental program manager for the state Department of Fish and Wildlife, who had seen the damage to the creek. “I had seen populations get wiped out in similar situations. So when I heard, I was thrilled.”
Evans surmises the fish that survived were in an area of the creek where less charred material and sediment were swept in.
“These fish likely hunkered down, were hiding under some rocks or places to try to get away from the main concentration of flow,” he said. “And luckily they weren’t buried.”
The ones that were spotted were fairly small, around 6 to 14 inches. Rainbow trout and steelhead trout are the same species, but with different lifestyles. If the fish remain in freshwater, they’ll be considered rainbows. However, they can migrate to the ocean and become steelhead, where they typically grow larger before returning to their natal waters to spawn.
Topanga Creek hasn’t fully recovered from the damage it sustained, but scientists say it’s looking better. Surveys last year were “so depressing,” Dagit said, with very few animals, and stretches that were essentially transformed into flat roads from all the sediment buildup. Some of the riparian canopy burned right down to the creek.
Then came 32 inches of rain over the last nine months, scouring out and moving sediment, creating deeper pools. Dagit said they recently found newt egg masses for the first time in years, as well as a few adult newts and many frogs. Plants that provide cover are starting to recover.
She provided photos comparing certain pools last year and this year, some dramatically transformed. In September 2025, the Shrine Pool could have been an overgrown hiking trail. This April, it was filled with shallow water.
The Shrine Pool in September 2025, left, and the same location in April 2026, right, with RCDSMM’s Isaac Yelchin donning a wetsuit.
(RCDSMM Stream Team)
Topanga Creek is home to another endangered fish, the small but hardy northern tidewater goby, often described as cute. Not long before the trout operation, Dagit led a rescue of hundreds of these fish too. Many were repatriated to the lagoon at the mouth of the creek in a moving ceremony last June.
There’s still the matter of what to do with the trout that were moved to Santa Barbara County last year. Evans would like to bring them home to the Santa Monicas at some point, but isn’t sure if it will happen. On one hand, they could bolster the small, genetically isolated surviving population. On the other, they might inadvertently bring in a disease or bacteria. There is some time to decide. Evans estimates the creek still needs to recover for two to three more years.
For now, the fish are functioning fine in their adopted creek. Experts worried the trauma wrought by the move would disrupt their spawning process, but they had babies that spring. This year, they spawned again.
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