Science
How bad will Omicron be? Scientists won’t really know for months
In a virus that has already killed 5.2 million individuals throughout the globe, 50 or so new mutations sound like a nightmare for humanity. However within the age-old battle between microbes and mankind, that many genetic modifications can flip the tide in any route.
The following chapter of the pandemic may characteristic an Omicron variant that spreads extra readily than Delta, blows previous the defenses of a totally vaccinated immune system, and, like its coronavirus cousin that causes Center East respiratory syndrome, kills greater than one-third of those that get it. That worst-case state of affairs can be an unfathomable catastrophe, mentioned Dr. Bruce Walker, an immunologist and founding director of the Ragon Institute in Cambridge, Mass.
On the different finish of a large spectrum of potentialities, humanity may catch a break. Omicron may develop into a benign variant that spreads as quick as Delta, is definitely tamed by vaccine, and barely sickens its victims whereas leaving them with some immunity and little threat of growing “lengthy COVID.” In that case, “nature could have created a pure vaccine,” Walker mentioned.
However it’ll take weeks and months — and the work of a legion of scientists throughout the globe — to start to know whether or not the Omicron variant will change the course of the pandemic, and the way.
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Within the waning days of 2021, microbiologists, immunologists and genetic scientists will provide key early insights into the variant’s penchant for unfold and its capability to thwart therapies and vaccines within the confines of a lab.
It would take till early 2022 for contact-tracing groups and epidemiologists to flesh out the rising image with real-world knowledge on whom Omicron sickens, and the extent of their sicknesses. Then mathematical modelers will plug in what’s recognized, fill in what’s not, and forecast a variety of outcomes.
Till these bits and items of proof start to congeal, all we’ve are anecdotes, mentioned infectious-disease specialist Dr. Joshua Schiffer of the Fred Hutchison Most cancers Analysis Middle in Seattle, “and the anecdotes should not useful.”
The influence of the Omicron variant “actually must be assessed in a scientific method, very giant numbers of individuals,” Schiffer mentioned. “That is going to take a little bit of time to parse.”
As soon as once more, the approaching months will present the general public a lesson in each the science of uncertainty and the uncertainty of science. Like a jigsaw puzzle, the whole image of Omicron’s influence will emerge solely in items.
Nearly two years right into a pandemic, scientists must take the measure of the SARS-CoV-2 virus but once more. This time, they’ve a variant modified by an unprecedented variety of mutations with worrisome histories. And they’re assessing its strengths and weaknesses in a various inhabitants of potential hosts that ranges from uninfected-and-entirely-susceptible to vaccinated-and-boosted.
“There are such a lot of shifting components,” mentioned Dr. Jonathan Li, a Harvard infectious-disease specialist who directs the virology laboratory at Brigham and Girls’s Hospital in Boston.
It’s attainable that Omicron’s detection simply occurred to coincide with an remoted outbreak or superspreader occasion that prompted South African scientists to step up their assortment of viral coronavirus specimens.
If Omicron fails to realize extra footholds because it lands in a wider vary of locations, its obvious function in driving South Africa’s newest outbreak could show to have been a case of misattribution, Schiffer mentioned.
Now that the Omicron variant has been detected in a number of nations, its powers of transmission might be examined. If it’s discovered to be gaining floor, the subsequent problem might be for scientists to find out whether or not its elevated unfold is a operate of some innate organic benefit that helps it unfold from individual to individual and whether or not it’s specifically outfitted to evade the defenses of people that gained immunity from a vaccine or previous an infection.
A cursory examine of Omicron’s constellation of mutations raises deep issues on each fronts.
“This variant appears to have a few of the best hits with regards to mutations,” Li mentioned.
A very good a lot of them are closely concentrated alongside a string of genetic code that governs the form and habits of the spike protein, which the virus makes use of to latch onto human cells. Two mutations are at a website the virus makes use of to pry its method into these cells and hijack them for its personal replication. And several other extra have been seen in different variants which might be able to evading antibodies made by the immune system in response to vaccines and former infections.
That’s just the start.
“It’s not solely the sheer variety of mutations” that’s regarding, Li mentioned. It’s how broadly throughout the virus’ genome they’re scattered, and the vary of features they’ve the potential to vary: “It simply has a lot of mutations, in every single place.”
If Omicron does set up itself outdoors southern Africa, scientists might want to gauge the relative contributions of the variant’s elevated transmissibility and its capability to overpower a ready immune system. These findings will assist information the subsequent steps, together with a possible renewal of public well being measures and the reformulation of mRNA vaccines and boosters particularly tailor-made to thwart the brand new variant. Vaccine makers Pfizer and Moderna have mentioned they may prepared such vaccines in just some months’ time.
With lab research to information their hunches, scientists ought to discover the duty of separating elevated transmissibility from so-called immune escape easy sufficient. If new infections linked to Omicron happen primarily in unvaccinated individuals, heightened transmissibility would appear to be at work. If new infections are simply as more likely to happen in individuals who’ve been vaccinated as in those that haven’t, scientists would possibly conclude the variant has discovered its method round antibodies meant to dam it.
However that seemingly simple evaluation might be difficult by a number of components. The COVID-19 vaccines accessible internationally have ranged broadly of their capability to dam reinfection.
The waning of vaccine-induced immunity has thrown one other wild card into the combo. If a vaccinated particular person has a breakthrough case involving Omicron, it gained’t essentially be clear whether or not the variant busted by means of the vaccine’s defenses or these defenses had already fallen on their very own.
If it seems that Omicron isn’t readily stopped by vaccines, the world would discover itself again at sq. one, mentioned Dr. Charles Chiu, an infectious illness specialist at UC San Francisco.
However it might take greater than that for the variant to wreak havoc, he added.
The Beta variant first seen in South Africa and the Gamma variant in Brazil each demonstrated the power to evade vaccine defenses, Chiu mentioned. However once they competed head-to-head towards the extremely transmissible Delta variant in america and elsewhere, they didn’t achieve a lot traction, Chiu mentioned.
The lesson: Even when Omicron is adept at overcoming vaccines, its influence might be blunted if it might’t unseat Delta.
The ultimate take a look at of Omicron’s powers to worsen the pandemic might be to grasp whether or not it might make individuals sicker and trigger extra deaths than the variants which have come earlier than. Whether it is each extra transmissible and extra virulent, the outcome can be disastrous, Walker mentioned.
“That’s the query that’s most necessary to reply,” he mentioned.
However scientists must be affected person. It sometimes takes a minimum of a few weeks of sickness for an contaminated particular person to change into sick sufficient to be positioned below intensive care or to die, Walker mentioned. And scientists must meld scientific knowledge with genetic sequencing to know whether or not Omicron’s mutations are accountable.
Tulio de Oliveira, the South African geneticist who led the group that recognized the Omicron variant, mentioned scientists throughout Africa might be working feverishly to gather that knowledge over the subsequent a number of weeks. He mentioned he suspects that higher powers of each transmission and of immune escape have pushed Omicron into the worldwide highlight. However he’s reluctant to make predictions in regards to the variant’s capability to sicken.
“The following weeks are so essential,” he mentioned.
Science
Cluster of farmworkers diagnosed with rare animal-borne disease in Ventura County
A cluster of workers at Ventura County berry farms have been diagnosed with a rare disease often transmitted through sick animals’ urine, according to a public health advisory distributed to local doctors by county health officials Tuesday.
The bacterial infection, leptospirosis, has resulted in severe symptoms for some workers, including meningitis, an inflammation of the brain lining and spinal cord. Symptoms for mild cases included headaches and fevers.
The disease, which can be fatal, rarely spreads from human to human, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Ventura County Public Health has not given an official case count but said it had not identified any cases outside of the agriculture sector. The county’s agriculture commissioner was aware of 18 cases, the Ventura County Star reported.
The health department said it was first contacted by a local physician in October, who reported an unusual trend in symptoms among hospital patients.
After launching an investigation, the department identified leptospirosis as a probable cause of the illness and found most patients worked on caneberry farms that utilize hoop houses — greenhouse structures to shelter the crops.
As the investigation to identify any additional cases and the exact sources of exposure continues, Ventura County Public Health has asked healthcare providers to consider a leptospirosis diagnosis for sick agricultural workers, particularly berry harvesters.
Rodents are a common source and transmitter of disease, though other mammals — including livestock, cats and dogs — can transmit it as well.
The disease is spread through bodily fluids, such as urine, and is often contracted through cuts and abrasions that contact contaminated water and soil, where the bacteria can survive for months.
Humans can also contract the illness through contaminated food; however, the county health agency has found no known health risks to the general public, including through the contact or consumption of caneberries such as raspberries and blackberries.
Symptom onset typically occurs between two and 30 days after exposure, and symptoms can last for months if untreated, according to the CDC.
The illness often begins with mild symptoms, with fevers, chills, vomiting and headaches. Some cases can then enter a second, more severe phase that can result in kidney or liver failure.
Ventura County Public Health recommends agriculture and berry harvesters regularly rinse any cuts with soap and water and cover them with bandages. They also recommend wearing waterproof clothing and protection while working outdoors, including gloves and long-sleeve shirts and pants.
While there is no evidence of spread to the larger community, according to the department, residents should wash hands frequently and work to control rodents around their property if possible.
Pet owners can consult a veterinarian about leptospirosis vaccinations and should keep pets away from ponds, lakes and other natural bodies of water.
Science
Political stress: Can you stay engaged without sacrificing your mental health?
It’s been two weeks since Donald Trump won the presidential election, but Stacey Lamirand’s brain hasn’t stopped churning.
“I still think about the election all the time,” said the 60-year-old Bay Area resident, who wanted a Kamala Harris victory so badly that she flew to Pennsylvania and knocked on voters’ doors in the final days of the campaign. “I honestly don’t know what to do about that.”
Neither do the psychologists and political scientists who have been tracking the country’s slide toward toxic levels of partisanship.
Fully 69% of U.S. adults found the presidential election a significant source of stress in their lives, the American Psychological Assn. said in its latest Stress in America report.
The distress was present across the political spectrum, with 80% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 73% of independents surveyed saying they were stressed about the country’s future.
That’s unhealthy for the body politic — and for voters themselves. Stress can cause muscle tension, headaches, sleep problems and loss of appetite. Chronic stress can inflict more serious damage to the immune system and make people more vulnerable to heart attacks, strokes, diabetes, infertility, clinical anxiety, depression and other ailments.
In most circumstances, the sound medical advice is to disengage from the source of stress, therapists said. But when stress is coming from politics, that prescription pits the health of the individual against the health of the nation.
“I’m worried about people totally withdrawing from politics because it’s unpleasant,” said Aaron Weinschenk, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin–Green Bay who studies political behavior and elections. “We don’t want them to do that. But we also don’t want them to feel sick.”
Modern life is full of stressors of all kinds: paying bills, pleasing difficult bosses, getting along with frenemies, caring for children or aging parents (or both).
The stress that stems from politics isn’t fundamentally different from other kinds of stress. What’s unique about it is the way it encompasses and enhances other sources of stress, said Brett Ford, a social psychologist at the University of Toronto who studies the link between emotions and political engagement.
For instance, she said, elections have the potential to make everyday stressors like money and health concerns more difficult to manage as candidates debate policies that could raise the price of gas or cut off access to certain kinds of medical care.
Layered on top of that is the fact that political disagreements have morphed into moral conflicts that are perceived as pitting good against evil.
“When someone comes into power who is not on the same page as you morally, that can hit very deeply,” Ford said.
Partisanship and polarization have raised the stakes as well. Voters who feel a strong connection to a political party become more invested in its success. That can make a loss at the ballot box feel like a personal defeat, she said.
There’s also the fact that we have limited control over the outcome of an election. A patient with heart disease can improve their prognosis by taking medicine, changing their diet, getting more exercise or quitting smoking. But a person with political stress is largely at the mercy of others.
“Politics is many forms of stress all rolled into one,” Ford said.
Weinschenk observed this firsthand the day after the election.
“I could feel it when I went into my classroom,” said the professor, whose research has found that people with political anxiety aren’t necessarily anxious in general. “I have a student who’s transgender and a couple of students who are gay. Their emotional state was so closed down.”
That’s almost to be expected in a place like Wisconsin, whose swing-state status caused residents to be bombarded with political messages. The more campaign ads a person is exposed to, the greater the risk of being diagnosed with anxiety, depression or another psychological ailment, according to a 2022 study in the journal PLOS One.
Political messages seem designed to keep voters “emotionally on edge,” said Vaile Wright, a licensed psychologist in Villa Park, Ill., and a member of the APA’s Stress in America team.
“It encourages emotion to drive our decision-making behavior, as opposed to logic,” Wright said. “When we’re really emotionally stimulated, it makes it so much more challenging to have civil conversation. For politicians, I think that’s powerful, because emotions can be very easily manipulated.”
Making voters feel anxious is a tried-and-true way to grab their attention, said Christopher Ojeda, a political scientist at UC Merced who studies mental health and politics.
“Feelings of anxiety can be mobilizing, definitely,” he said. “That’s why politicians make fear appeals — they want people to get engaged.”
On the other hand, “feelings of depression are demobilizing and take you out of the political system,” said Ojeda, author of “The Sad Citizen: How Politics is Depressing and Why it Matters.”
“What [these feelings] can tell you is, ‘Things aren’t going the way I want them to. Maybe I need to step back,’” he said.
Genessa Krasnow has been seeing a lot of that since the election.
The Seattle entrepreneur, who also campaigned for Harris, said it grates on her to see people laughing in restaurants “as if nothing had happened.” At a recent book club meeting, her fellow group members were willing to let her vent about politics for five minutes, but they weren’t interested in discussing ways they could counteract the incoming president.
“They’re in a state of disengagement,” said Krasnow, who is 56. She, meanwhile, is looking for new ways to reach young voters.
“I am exhausted. I am so sad,” she said. “But I don’t believe that disengaging is the answer.”
That’s the fundamental trade-off, Ojeda said, and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution.
“Everyone has to make a decision about how much engagement they can tolerate without undermining their psychological well-being,” he said.
Lamirand took steps to protect her mental health by cutting social media ties with people whose values aren’t aligned with hers. But she will remain politically active and expects to volunteer for phone-banking duty soon.
“Doing something is the only thing that allows me to feel better,” Lamirand said. “It allows me to feel some level of control.”
Ideally, Ford said, people would not have to choose between being politically active and preserving their mental health. She is investigating ways to help people feel hopeful, inspired and compassionate about political challenges, since these emotions can motivate action without triggering stress and anxiety.
“We want to counteract this pattern where the more involved you are, the worse you are,” Ford said.
The benefits would be felt across the political spectrum. In the APA survey, similar shares of Democrats, Republicans and independents agreed with statements like, “It causes me stress that politicians aren’t talking about the things that are most important to me,” and, “The political climate has caused strain between my family members and me.”
“Both sides are very invested in this country, and that is a good thing,” Wright said. “Antipathy and hopelessness really doesn’t serve us in the long run.”
Science
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