Science
How a Melting Glacier in Antarctica Could Affect Tens of Millions Around the Globe
Scientists spent the first weeks of the year on an expedition to Antarctica to study Thwaites Glacier, which is melting at an alarming rate. If it breaks apart entirely, it could push up global sea levels by two feet over the course of several decades, affecting tens of millions worldwide, according to a New York Times analysis.
The maps below show some of the coastal cities at risk and populated, low-lying areas that could be threatened if the glacier were to collapse today.
1.7 million
These are just the minimum effects that Thwaites’s disintegration would be likely to have on the world’s coastlines. As the glacier breaks apart, global warming will raise sea levels even higher by melting the ice from Greenland and causing oceans to expand in volume. And Thwaites acts as a plug, holding back many of the Antarctic glaciers on land around it. If it collapses, they could break apart and spill into the sea as well.
“Eventually it would take out all of the West Antarctic,” said Richard Alley, a professor of geosciences at Penn State.
Seaside cities all over the world are at risk, but the threat is especially acute in Asia, and includes some of the world’s fastest-growing urban areas, as the map below shows:
The costs of guarding against higher storm surges and more frequent flooding would be huge. One proposal from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to protect parts of New York City would cost more than $52 billion, a price tag that would be out of reach for much of the world.
“We’ll defend the highest-value places that are defensible, but there will be other places that we don’t,” said Benjamin Strauss, Chief Scientist at Climate Central, a nonprofit science organization that produced the elevation models used in this article.
In city after city, the Times’s analysis found that heavily populated areas tend to be near the coasts, as opposed to higher, safer areas.
Shanghai, one of the major cities under threat, already has more than 600,000 residents living below sea level. If average sea levels rose two feet, an additional 4.7 million people would be affected.
Shanghai’s population at each elevation
Like many of the most vulnerable places, Shanghai is situated on a soft, marshy delta, a landscape naturally prone to sinking, although humans often speed up the process by building structures and draining the groundwater below. The city has also been adding and reinforcing seawalls, and replacing concrete with wetland parks to absorb stormwater.
For places like Shanghai, the cost of defending the city is relatively modest compared with its value, said Jochen Hinkel, director of the Global Climate Forum, an international research organization based in Germany. “There’s so much capital concentrated on a small piece of land,” he said.
But not all places have the resources to protect themselves. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is expected to swell to over 50 million people by 2050, and will rely extensively on borrowed money to prepare for the worst.
Dhaka’s population at each elevation
Bangladesh, a low-lying delta nation, is experiencing more volatile monsoons and stronger cyclones as the planet warms. Villages have already been erased as the tides rise and rivers in the region change shape. Saltwater tides have ruined farmland, driving rural residents to the already-crowded capital.
The limits to adaptation
In the United States, a two-foot increase in sea levels wouldn’t affect as many people as in parts of Asia, but the price of adaptation would be astronomical. And even in the wealthiest country in the world, flood defenses aren’t bulletproof.
When the network of pumps and levees failed during Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the catastrophe killed 1,400 people and displaced more than a million. Recovery in New Orleans has cost about $140 billion. Dozens of smaller communities along the Gulf Coast may not be so lucky.
120,000 people within 2 feet of high tide
Areas protected
by levees
125,000
Coastal cities elsewhere are bracing for higher sea levels. It would cost $13.6 billion to shield part of the San Francisco waterfront. Farther inland in California, it would take $2 billion to improve protections in Stockton. Across the country, a giant barrier at New York City’s harbor could cost $119 billion.
Yet people and buildings continue to accumulate in harm’s way. Miami’s population and real estate values have exploded in recent years, despite the fact that the city is notoriously difficult to protect.
Clearer answers about if, and when, Thwaites could collapse may make all the difference in how well coastal areas are able to adapt. “The value of the information is grotesquely higher than what we’ve invested in it,” Dr. Alley said.
Under President Trump, the United States has abandoned research that could better forecast the effects of Antarctica’s melting ice. It has also promoted the use and burning of fossil fuels, adding to the greenhouse gas emissions that are dangerously heating the planet. That could speed up the glacier’s collapse.
The fallout from decisions made today may not be felt immediately, Dr. Strauss said, but “this is what we’re signing up the future for.”
Methodology
The Times’s analysis includes cities with 300,000 residents or more and within 100 miles of the coast.
It used elevation data from Climate Central’s CoastalDEM 3.0 to calculate the average high tides at each location. This model reflects local water levels more accurately than global averages. It used data from the European Commission’s Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-UCDB) for city boundaries and Worldpop’s 2026 data for population estimates.
The sea level rise scenarios in this article focus only on the effects from Antarctica. The continent is expected to lose its gravitational pull on ocean water as it loses ice. As that happens, parts of the Northern Hemisphere, including the United States and much of Asia, will experience higher-than-average effects in sea level rise than places closer to Antarctica.
The maps and total population numbers are adjusted to reflect this dynamic, using data from Jerry Mitrovica, professor of geophysics at Harvard. They do not account for similar dynamics from Greenland’s ice loss, or for any other influences that may cause an uneven distribution of sea level rise.
Science
Video: Artemis Astronauts Splash Down After Historic Lunar Flyby
new video loaded: Artemis Astronauts Splash Down After Historic Lunar Flyby
transcript
transcript
Artemis Astronauts Splash Down After Historic Lunar Flyby
The four astronauts aboard Artemis II splashed down at 8:07 p.m. Eastern time in the Pacific Ocean near San Diego on Friday, concluding their historic 10-day mission, the first to send humans to the moon in more than 50 years.
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“Houston, Integrity splashdown. Sending post-landing command now.” “Splashdown confirmed.” “Copy splashdown. Waiting on V.L.D.R.” “Splashdown confirmed at 7:07 p.m. Central time.” “All four crew members now out of Integrity.”
By Jackeline Luna
April 10, 2026
Science
Lead still haunts yards in Exide battery recycler cleanup zone
Homes near a former battery recycler in Southeast Los Angeles County still have excessive lead in their soil, even after the state spent hundreds of millions of dollars over a decade to remove it, according to a new study.
The former Exide Technologies plant in Vernon melted down pallets of lead-acid car batteries in blast furnaces for nearly a century, blanketing up to 10,000 nearby properties with toxic dust, according to state officials. They say the cleanup is the largest of its kind in the country.
The Exide plant was permanently closed in 2015 and later abandoned by the company. The California Department of Toxic Substances Control hired contractors to remove and replace heavily contaminated soil at nearby homes, schools and parks in seven communities, including Boyle Heights and unincorporated East L.A.
Now in a review of the state’s work, a team of university researchers and a local environmental health organization have tested more than 1,100 soil samples from 370 homes within and just outside the state-designated cleanup area. They found nearly three quarters of remediated homes still had lead levels above California’s standard for residential properties in at least one sample. Their study is published in Environmental Science & Technology.
Jill Johnston, lead author and associate professor of environmental and occupational health at UC Irvine, said the results suggest there were deep flaws with the cleanup. This leftover lead has the potential to stunt brain development in young children, leaving them with lifelong deficits if they inhale dust or ingest it playing in their yards.
“The state cleanup plan [said] surface soil was going to be removed or covered,” Johnston said. Instead, there is “potentially ongoing exposures to folks living there now, but also future generations.”
Exide Technologies, a former lead-acid battery recycling plant in Vernon, in October 2020.
(Al Seib/Los Angeles Times)
The cleanup started in 2016 and is ongoing. It aimed to excavate up to 18 inches of contaminated soil from each home and backfill with clean topsoil. So far, more than 6,100 properties have been remediated in Southeast L.A. County. The state has dedicated more than $700 million to the effort.
A 2023 Los Angeles Times investigation, which cited preliminary soil testing results, found that state-hired cleanup crews often did not remove contaminated soil from next to buildings, walkways and trees, where backhoes and other excavators can’t get in — areas that require a shovel.
In some cases, workers mishandled contaminated soil, spreading it onto neighboring properties. The state did not offer soil testing to confirm the properties met state standards after the cleanup, leaving many skeptical their homes were actually clean.
Mark! Lopez, a community organizer with East Yard Communities for Environmental Justice and a co-author of the study, had long heard complaints from residents and raised concerns about the cleanup. The findings, he said, substantiated many of those claims.
“The results are worse than we feared,” said Lopez, who led teams in collecting soil samples from 2021 to 2024.
When they released initial data, he said, “DTSC was trying to deny its validity … Now that can’t be denied.”
A DTSC spokesperson said the agency could not accept the study’s findings without more information.
“It is impossible to evaluate the conclusion of the UC Irvine study without the underlying data and methodology,” the agency spokesperson said. “That information has not been shared after multiple requests.”
No cleanup ever replaces every particle of soil, the agency said. “That said, DTSC has carried out an unprecedented cleanup near the former Exide facility, completing work at more than 6,000 homes, the largest residential cleanup of its kind in the nation. This work confirms DTSC’s commitment to protecting the health of residents.”
After the team shared results with state officials, DTSC committed to perform soil testing at 100 homes that had their work done early in the process, before procedures underwent an overhaul. The agency also has paid for post-cleanup testing at the most recently cleaned homes. None of that data has been published, and it’s unclear if DTSC intends to order crews to return to homes that have lead contamination above state standards.
In addition, DTSC now has third-party supervisors monitoring cleanup work.
Johnston and fellow researchers also tested more than 620 samples from 200 homes outside the official 1.7-mile cleanup area. Almost all, 89%, had lead levels above state standards, suggesting Exide’s pollution may have traveled farther than the cleanup zone designated by the state.
Some level of lead blankets many urban areas, because of lead paint, leaded jet fuel and tailpipe exhaust from leaded gasoline. But the researchers believe much of this pollution was attributable to Exide.
That’s because at the direction of state regulators, Exide sampled homes in Long Beach, about 14 miles south, in a similar neighborhood close to freeways, a rail yard and older homes — but without a lead smelter. Lead concentrations were far lower than in Southeast L.A. County.
“We essentially saw lead level patterns that mimicked lead levels in the community — before cleanup,” Johnston said. “So the vast majority of homes exceeded state thresholds.”
DTSC officials have said lead contamination also could have been from older homes with lead paint or leaded gasoline in cars.
Community leaders have pushed for extending the cleanup area to remove hidden threats in those areas, even as many still worry about residents whose properties already have been cleared. They don’t want residents to have a false sense of security that their property is clean when many still are laced with lead.
Johnston said some of the risks could’ve been avoided if the state committed to proper safeguards, such as post-cleanup sampling, sooner.
“If that process started early on and is done in a way where residents and the broader community had transparency to that data, we could have addressed” hot spots of contamination and other neighborhood concerns, she said.
Science
Did you feel it? As Artemis II nears reentry, scientists want to know how far the sonic boom travels
Southern Californians may hear a distinct “boom” around 5 p.m. Friday as NASA’s Artemis II moon flyby mission makes its energetic reentry off the coast of San Diego, the U.S. Geological Survey said.
USGS does not know how far up and down the coast — or how far inland — Californians will be able to hear this sonic boom, produced as the capsule breaks the sound barrier as it slows down, said John Bellini, a geophysicist with the agency.
For this reason, USGS is asking for the public’s help: Californians can report whether or not they heard the boom to the agency’s “Did You Feel It” survey.
This information, Bellini said, will help scientists better predict sonic booms in the future, which are dependent on a variety of atmospheric conditions.
“Since this is a known source with a relatively known location and time of occurrence, people reporting this can help us in the future to better characterize unknown sources of a similar type,” he said.
NASA astronaut and Artemis II Pilot Victor Glover in the Orion spacecraft during the Artemis II lunar flyby.
(NASA via Getty Images)
For example, meteorites and space debris piercing the atmosphere can produce sonic booms — as can supersonic tests from the military and private aerospace companies.
While Southern Californians might hear the intense reentry, NASA isn’t so confident they’ll be able to see it.
However, Aaron Rosengren, assistant professor of space systems at UC San Diego, is more optimistic.
“The weather is quite nice today,” he said. “If you have any view along the Southern Coast and you’re looking westward along the horizon, you should be able to see a faint light in the sky as it reenters.”
Rosengren expects that streak in the sky to last less than a minute.
The Artemis II crew, the first to reach the moon in a half-century, will slam into the atmosphere at 30 times the speed of sound, generating a fireball of nearly 5,000 degrees Fahrenheit around the capsule.
When Artemis II pilot and SoCal native Victor Glover was asked Wednesday evening about the moments from this mission he’ll carry with him for the rest of his life, he joked: “We’ve still got two more days, and riding a fireball through the atmosphere is profound as well.”
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