Science
Fresh look at earliest COVID cases points to live-animal market as most likely source
Conspiracy theorists want little greater than suspicion, some cherry-picked details and vibrant imaginations to spin tales concerning the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. However for the scientists working to determine the details, the trail to the reality is rather more plodding.
Their search will take them via a trove of medical information whose quotidian particulars will probably be essential guideposts to the time and circumstances of the coronavirus’ start as a human pathogen. Sufferers’ recall of their whereabouts and contacts will matter too.
However even when the Chinese language authorities had been keen to open all its affected person information to worldwide investigators — it at present will not be — symptom studies and sufferers’ recollections may be fallible and complicated. Researchers must verify each truth as they ferret out the story, piece by piece.
College of Arizona evolutionary biologist Michael Worobey provides a down fee on such sleuthing on this week’s version of the journal Science. Drawn from medical journal articles, the work of World Well being Group investigators, media studies and on-line accounts, Worobey’s reconstruction leaves many questions unanswered. But it surely supplies a street map for additional investigation.
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Worobey has performed an influential position. He was considered one of 18 scientists whose objections to a WHO report on the coronavirus’ origins reignited investigation into the likelihood that it might need leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Their letter was printed in Science after the WHO declared it “more likely to very probably” that the virus jumped to people from animals, and “extraordinarily unlikely” that it escaped from the federal government lab. Noting that the 2 theories “weren’t given balanced consideration,” the group referred to as for “a correct investigation” to resolve the problem.
Worobey stated on the time that “each” explanations “stay on the desk for me.” However his new work leans closely to the “animal spillover” rationalization.
Worobey’s effort is assembly with combined evaluations.
“I don’t assume this advances in a serious approach our collective understanding of what actually occurred,” stated Dr. David Relman, the Stanford microbiologist who organized the Science letter. Since Worobey’s new narrative is constructed primarily of “third- and fourth-hand data,” it’s fragmentary, inconsistent and probably unreliable, Relman stated.
However Scripps Establishment microbiologist Kristian Andersen, who has lengthy argued that an animal spillover was extra probably than a lab leak, lauded Worobey’s analysis for “uncovering a number of new key insights.”
The collective proof “clearly factors to the Huanan Market as a really probably supply of the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic,” Andersen stated.
Worobey’s account calls into query the date and placement of the earliest reported case of the mysterious sort of pneumonia that was later acknowledged as COVID-19. His analysis suggests it was not — as has been extensively reported — a 41-year-old accountant with no connection to the Huanan Market, however a seafood vendor who labored there. (A Chinese language investigative reporter would uncover that the accountant’s Dec. 8 fever was as a consequence of an an infection after dental surgical procedure to take away retained child tooth. The accountant would go on to develop one other fever eight days later that was an indication of COVID-19.)
A full 11 days earlier than Chinese language authorities centered their consideration on the Huanan Market because the widespread hyperlink within the mysterious infections, medical doctors at two Wuhan hospitals had already recognized 14 instances of the unexplained pneumonia. Eight of these sufferers had frolicked on the market, the place reside raccoon canines, a species recognized to hold SARS-like coronaviruses, had been offered.
The importance of such minute particulars wouldn’t be evident to informal followers of the origin debate. However they matter enormously.
These arguing that China has coated up an unintentional lab leak or the intentional launch of an engineered pathogen have seized upon this discovering within the WHO report: Solely 33% of 168 sufferers who developed the unexplained pneumonia early within the outbreak had a direct hyperlink to the Huanan Market. They add that even that quantity is probably going inflated by medical doctors who went on the lookout for hyperlinks to the market after Chinese language authorities designated the positioning because the probably supply.
They’ve additionally made a lot of the now-disputed report that the earliest recognized affected person (the 41-year-old accountant) lived practically 20 miles south of the Huanan Market and had by no means been there, but he confirmed up sick in a hospital near the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Dr. Marc Suchard, a UCLA researcher who makes use of genetic sequences to check the unfold of illness, stated Worobey’s reconstruction makes clear that “most early instances happen close to the market, figuring out it as an early epicenter.” Suchard stated he expects to work with Worobey on the following section of this analysis.
China insists the SARS-CoV-2 virus arose from a spillover occasion. Authorities there stated they responded promptly to studies of an unexplained sickness in Wuhan, shortly tracing it to the Huanan Market and activating a nationwide warning system.
They dismiss the likelihood that the virus escaped from the Wuhan virology lab. However they’ve been unwilling to share their information with WHO investigators. And since the federal government has coated up missteps in previous disasters, skepticism of its claims has been widespread.
Worobey didn’t acknowledge the politically charged debate over the virus’ origins. However he made clear his reconstruction of occasions factors strongly towards a spillover rationalization.
For example, by his accounting, 10 of the 19 earliest instances recognized — 53% — had a hyperlink to the market. That quantity couldn’t have been inflated by medical doctors’ following the federal government’s lead, he stated, as a result of they had been all recognized earlier than authorities made any announcement.
“There was a real preponderance of early COVID-19 instances related to Huanan Market,” Worobey wrote.
He additionally wrote that, given what’s now recognized concerning the SARS-CoV-2 virus, it needs to be no shock that lots of the early sufferers had no connection to the Huanan Market. The virus is well unfold by individuals with few or no signs. It takes shut to 2 weeks for an an infection to progress to extreme sickness, and not more than 7% of these contaminated find yourself hospitalized.
Which means by the point individuals started to land in Wuhan’s hospitals, the virus had in all probability been circulating regionally for weeks — and a minimum of 93% of contaminated individuals had been out and about, capable of unfold it in a metropolis of 11 million.
Amongst sufferers with no direct hyperlink to the market, most lived shut by. That “is notable and supplies compelling proof that neighborhood transmission began on the market,” Worobey wrote.
These details additionally recommend that the pandemic’s “affected person zero” will probably by no means be discovered.
Someday in late November or early December, that individual might need been consuming lunch subsequent to contaminated raccoon canines of their cages on the Huanan Market. She or he might need been one of many practically 50% of people that don’t really feel very sick however are nonetheless fairly efficient at passing SARS-CoV-2 on.
The animal that incubated the virus is even much less more likely to be discovered. Chinese language researchers informed WHO investigators they took samples from 188 animals from 18 species on the market, and all examined unfavorable. And for the reason that market was closed and disinfected on Jan. 1, 2020, there’s no solution to look additional.
So researchers should preserve amassing epidemiological information and sorting via the telling particulars to create the fullest image potential of the virus’ start.
Genetic sequencing information also can assist, Worobey stated. Because the virus strikes from individual to individual, its genetic signature modifications simply sufficient to disclose the order by which infections occurred. When epidemiologists and geneticists pool their information, they’re higher capable of create a household tree of infections.
As they cross-check genetic signatures with sufferers’ accounts of their contacts and whereabouts, they can time-stamp some infections and discern the spatial patterns of the virus’s earliest transmissions. That ought to get them nearer to the basis of the household tree — perhaps not affected person zero, however shut.
“Conclusive proof of a Huanan Market origin from contaminated wildlife could nonetheless be obtainable,” Worobey wrote. “Stopping future pandemics is dependent upon this effort.”
Science
Cluster of farmworkers diagnosed with rare animal-borne disease in Ventura County
A cluster of workers at Ventura County berry farms have been diagnosed with a rare disease often transmitted through sick animals’ urine, according to a public health advisory distributed to local doctors by county health officials Tuesday.
The bacterial infection, leptospirosis, has resulted in severe symptoms for some workers, including meningitis, an inflammation of the brain lining and spinal cord. Symptoms for mild cases included headaches and fevers.
The disease, which can be fatal, rarely spreads from human to human, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Ventura County Public Health has not given an official case count but said it had not identified any cases outside of the agriculture sector. The county’s agriculture commissioner was aware of 18 cases, the Ventura County Star reported.
The health department said it was first contacted by a local physician in October, who reported an unusual trend in symptoms among hospital patients.
After launching an investigation, the department identified leptospirosis as a probable cause of the illness and found most patients worked on caneberry farms that utilize hoop houses — greenhouse structures to shelter the crops.
As the investigation to identify any additional cases and the exact sources of exposure continues, Ventura County Public Health has asked healthcare providers to consider a leptospirosis diagnosis for sick agricultural workers, particularly berry harvesters.
Rodents are a common source and transmitter of disease, though other mammals — including livestock, cats and dogs — can transmit it as well.
The disease is spread through bodily fluids, such as urine, and is often contracted through cuts and abrasions that contact contaminated water and soil, where the bacteria can survive for months.
Humans can also contract the illness through contaminated food; however, the county health agency has found no known health risks to the general public, including through the contact or consumption of caneberries such as raspberries and blackberries.
Symptom onset typically occurs between two and 30 days after exposure, and symptoms can last for months if untreated, according to the CDC.
The illness often begins with mild symptoms, with fevers, chills, vomiting and headaches. Some cases can then enter a second, more severe phase that can result in kidney or liver failure.
Ventura County Public Health recommends agriculture and berry harvesters regularly rinse any cuts with soap and water and cover them with bandages. They also recommend wearing waterproof clothing and protection while working outdoors, including gloves and long-sleeve shirts and pants.
While there is no evidence of spread to the larger community, according to the department, residents should wash hands frequently and work to control rodents around their property if possible.
Pet owners can consult a veterinarian about leptospirosis vaccinations and should keep pets away from ponds, lakes and other natural bodies of water.
Science
Political stress: Can you stay engaged without sacrificing your mental health?
It’s been two weeks since Donald Trump won the presidential election, but Stacey Lamirand’s brain hasn’t stopped churning.
“I still think about the election all the time,” said the 60-year-old Bay Area resident, who wanted a Kamala Harris victory so badly that she flew to Pennsylvania and knocked on voters’ doors in the final days of the campaign. “I honestly don’t know what to do about that.”
Neither do the psychologists and political scientists who have been tracking the country’s slide toward toxic levels of partisanship.
Fully 69% of U.S. adults found the presidential election a significant source of stress in their lives, the American Psychological Assn. said in its latest Stress in America report.
The distress was present across the political spectrum, with 80% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 73% of independents surveyed saying they were stressed about the country’s future.
That’s unhealthy for the body politic — and for voters themselves. Stress can cause muscle tension, headaches, sleep problems and loss of appetite. Chronic stress can inflict more serious damage to the immune system and make people more vulnerable to heart attacks, strokes, diabetes, infertility, clinical anxiety, depression and other ailments.
In most circumstances, the sound medical advice is to disengage from the source of stress, therapists said. But when stress is coming from politics, that prescription pits the health of the individual against the health of the nation.
“I’m worried about people totally withdrawing from politics because it’s unpleasant,” said Aaron Weinschenk, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin–Green Bay who studies political behavior and elections. “We don’t want them to do that. But we also don’t want them to feel sick.”
Modern life is full of stressors of all kinds: paying bills, pleasing difficult bosses, getting along with frenemies, caring for children or aging parents (or both).
The stress that stems from politics isn’t fundamentally different from other kinds of stress. What’s unique about it is the way it encompasses and enhances other sources of stress, said Brett Ford, a social psychologist at the University of Toronto who studies the link between emotions and political engagement.
For instance, she said, elections have the potential to make everyday stressors like money and health concerns more difficult to manage as candidates debate policies that could raise the price of gas or cut off access to certain kinds of medical care.
Layered on top of that is the fact that political disagreements have morphed into moral conflicts that are perceived as pitting good against evil.
“When someone comes into power who is not on the same page as you morally, that can hit very deeply,” Ford said.
Partisanship and polarization have raised the stakes as well. Voters who feel a strong connection to a political party become more invested in its success. That can make a loss at the ballot box feel like a personal defeat, she said.
There’s also the fact that we have limited control over the outcome of an election. A patient with heart disease can improve their prognosis by taking medicine, changing their diet, getting more exercise or quitting smoking. But a person with political stress is largely at the mercy of others.
“Politics is many forms of stress all rolled into one,” Ford said.
Weinschenk observed this firsthand the day after the election.
“I could feel it when I went into my classroom,” said the professor, whose research has found that people with political anxiety aren’t necessarily anxious in general. “I have a student who’s transgender and a couple of students who are gay. Their emotional state was so closed down.”
That’s almost to be expected in a place like Wisconsin, whose swing-state status caused residents to be bombarded with political messages. The more campaign ads a person is exposed to, the greater the risk of being diagnosed with anxiety, depression or another psychological ailment, according to a 2022 study in the journal PLOS One.
Political messages seem designed to keep voters “emotionally on edge,” said Vaile Wright, a licensed psychologist in Villa Park, Ill., and a member of the APA’s Stress in America team.
“It encourages emotion to drive our decision-making behavior, as opposed to logic,” Wright said. “When we’re really emotionally stimulated, it makes it so much more challenging to have civil conversation. For politicians, I think that’s powerful, because emotions can be very easily manipulated.”
Making voters feel anxious is a tried-and-true way to grab their attention, said Christopher Ojeda, a political scientist at UC Merced who studies mental health and politics.
“Feelings of anxiety can be mobilizing, definitely,” he said. “That’s why politicians make fear appeals — they want people to get engaged.”
On the other hand, “feelings of depression are demobilizing and take you out of the political system,” said Ojeda, author of “The Sad Citizen: How Politics is Depressing and Why it Matters.”
“What [these feelings] can tell you is, ‘Things aren’t going the way I want them to. Maybe I need to step back,’” he said.
Genessa Krasnow has been seeing a lot of that since the election.
The Seattle entrepreneur, who also campaigned for Harris, said it grates on her to see people laughing in restaurants “as if nothing had happened.” At a recent book club meeting, her fellow group members were willing to let her vent about politics for five minutes, but they weren’t interested in discussing ways they could counteract the incoming president.
“They’re in a state of disengagement,” said Krasnow, who is 56. She, meanwhile, is looking for new ways to reach young voters.
“I am exhausted. I am so sad,” she said. “But I don’t believe that disengaging is the answer.”
That’s the fundamental trade-off, Ojeda said, and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution.
“Everyone has to make a decision about how much engagement they can tolerate without undermining their psychological well-being,” he said.
Lamirand took steps to protect her mental health by cutting social media ties with people whose values aren’t aligned with hers. But she will remain politically active and expects to volunteer for phone-banking duty soon.
“Doing something is the only thing that allows me to feel better,” Lamirand said. “It allows me to feel some level of control.”
Ideally, Ford said, people would not have to choose between being politically active and preserving their mental health. She is investigating ways to help people feel hopeful, inspired and compassionate about political challenges, since these emotions can motivate action without triggering stress and anxiety.
“We want to counteract this pattern where the more involved you are, the worse you are,” Ford said.
The benefits would be felt across the political spectrum. In the APA survey, similar shares of Democrats, Republicans and independents agreed with statements like, “It causes me stress that politicians aren’t talking about the things that are most important to me,” and, “The political climate has caused strain between my family members and me.”
“Both sides are very invested in this country, and that is a good thing,” Wright said. “Antipathy and hopelessness really doesn’t serve us in the long run.”
Science
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