Science
Could humanity catch a break with Omicron?
Within the weeks because the Omicron variant made its presence recognized, scientists have braced themselves for yet one more nasty shock from a virus that has killed greater than 5.3 million and sickened tons of of hundreds of thousands extra. However as they kind by preliminary knowledge on the pressure, they’re cautiously contemplating an surprising chance: that with Omicron, the coronavirus could lastly be reducing humanity a bit of slack.
There’s nonetheless loads of cause to fret: Omicron has unfold to a minimum of 77 nations, discovered its strategy to a minimum of 35 U.S. states, and is on observe to grow to be the dominant pressure in Europe by mid-January.
In keeping with a raft of lab assessments and inhabitants research in South Africa, the place Omicron is surging, the variant has minimize deeply into the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine’s potential to forestall new infections. And in contrast with Delta and different variants, it’s more likely to reinfect individuals who have already recovered from a bout with COVID-19.
On the similar time, there are intriguing indicators that with Omicron, the coronavirus has taken a flip for the milder.
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South African adults contaminated in the course of the Omicron surge have been 29% much less prone to be hospitalized for COVID-19 in contrast with their countrymen who have been sickened in the course of the first wave of circumstances there in the summertime of 2020. And in contrast with previous waves, adults hospitalized with Omicron have been much less prone to be admitted to the intensive care unit, or to wish pricey and intrusive ranges of hospital care.
All of that implies that in a world dominated by Omicron, the proportion of contaminated individuals who die may fall effectively beneath the 1% to 2% loss of life charge that’s prevailed throughout a lot of the pandemic. Likewise, the surges in hospitalizations which have strained healthcare programs and exhausted medical professionals might be dampened.
If circumstances tended to be extra delicate and COVID-19 vaccines may nonetheless defend essentially the most weak folks from dying, a kinder, gentler Omicron — even a extremely contagious one — might be the break well being officers and scientists have been ready for.
“Is that this the top of the pandemic?” Pieter Streicher, a coronavirus analyst on the College of Johannesburg, asked on Twitter.
Within the South African province of Gauteng, the place the primary main run-up of Omicron infections was seen, new infections linked to the variant peaked at a degree beforehand solely achieved by Delta — and it received there a lot quicker. But hospitalizations there are projected to be 25 instances decrease than could be anticipated with such a excessive an infection charge, Streicher famous.
COVID-19 loss of life charges throughout South Africa even have fallen precipitously regardless of the Omicron wave. If there is no such thing as a large surge in hospitalizations or deaths within the subsequent two to a few weeks, that “could effectively mark [a] turning level in [the] pandemic,” Dr. Shabir Madhi, an infectious-disease professional on the College of the Witwatersrand, wrote on Twitter.
A variant that mixes excessive transmissibility with drastically diminished virulence could be welcomed by many scientists. If an an infection with Omicron is unlikely to make a affected person severely unwell however leaves some immunity in its wake, it may act as a “pure vaccine,” stated Dr. Bruce Walker, an immunologist and founding director of the Ragon Institute in Cambridge, Mass.
It might be the start of the top.
For now, it’s merely a glimmer of hope, and shut to 2 years of expertise have made scientists and well being officers cautious of assuming excellent news. However among the many microbiologists, epidemiologists and evolutionary biologists who’ve contemplated how the pandemic will finish, a cluster of mutations that defang the virus’ potential to sicken whereas boosting its transmissibility has lengthy been a favourite situation.
Beneath these circumstances, the virus turns into an endemic “nuisance virus,” becoming a member of 4 different coronaviruses which have settled in amongst people and are key causes of the frequent chilly. They’ve assured their survival by producing delicate sickness and leaving just a bit immunity of their wake. As soon as lodged within the higher airways of the respiratory system, the sniffles and coughs they generate be sure that infectious particles get spewed into the air and left behind on surfaces. However the mildness of these signs permits contaminated hosts to go to high school, work, supermarkets, gyms and film theaters, the higher to unfold their germs.
Individuals uncovered to those viruses over a lifetime construct some pure immunity. However the restricted immunity of many of the inhabitants ensures the viruses have a bounty of potential hosts 12 months in and 12 months out. The battle between pathogens and humanity reaches a state of stalemate.
“That’s what all of us hope,” stated Dr. Stanley Perlman, a College of Iowa virologist who has studied coronaviruses for many years.
However he stated it’s manner too early to know whether or not that hopeful situation will pan out with Omicron.
“There have been so many twists and turns” throughout SARS-CoV-2’s two-year romp amongst people, Perlman stated. “We thought Delta was the top. We stated to ourselves, ‘That is going to be the one which’s going to stick with us,’ and now that doesn’t appear to be true. However all of us are hopeful.”
Others have been faster to specific doubt than acknowledge hope.
There are stark variations between South Africa and the US that make it dangerous to rely an excessive amount of on the early knowledge. Delicate COVID-19 is the overwhelming norm in South Africa as a result of 73% of South Africans are youthful than 40 (in contrast with 52% within the U.S.), an age group by which dangers of extreme illness are low. Simply 16% of South Africans are older than 60 (in contrast with 23% right here).
As well as, South Africa’s three waves of infections and its delayed entry to vaccines have produced a inhabitants that’s been contaminated and reinfected many instances. The ensuing immunity is prone to make for milder circumstances extra usually.
If Omicron does trigger extra delicate illness, that’s solely an enchancment of diploma. If the brand new variant makes solely 10% of these contaminated severely unwell with COVID-19 — reducing its virulence in half — that may appear to be an enormous win for people.
However that reward might be erased by a large enough leap within the variant’s potential to unfold. If Omicron is twice as transmissible as Delta, even a 50% discount in virulence will probably be a wash. And if it’s greater than twice as contagious, hospitals will start to refill quick.
“Even whether it is milder — and I wouldn’t rule it out — the expansion charge of Omicron, the sheer numbers of infections it’s inflicting and how briskly it’s rising imply that we’re a great distance” from the pandemic’s endgame, stated William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s College of Public Well being.
If Omicron additionally erodes the safety of vaccines and readily reinfects COVID-19 survivors, that might be an additional level within the virus’ favor.
The very preliminary experiences from South Africa recommend that within the Omicron period, two doses of the Pfizer vaccine offered simply 33% safety in opposition to an infection and 70% safety in opposition to hospitalization — down from 80% and 93% in earlier months.
Even with diminished virulence, numbers like these may return million of vaccinated folks to the pool of these weak to changing into severely unwell. That will give the virus the chance to claw again any benefit it might have yielded to people.
Whereas scientists cling to hope, they’re keenly conscious of the genetic curveballs the coronavirus may nonetheless throw. Even when it curbs its lethal methods and settles in for an extended keep, its error-prone replication equipment is sure to maintain producing mutations. And if Omicron is as transmissible as seems to be the case, it would get loads of possibilities to take action.
The virus may dispense humanity a small genetic favor right this moment and take it again tomorrow. Hanage isn’t respiration a sigh of reduction simply but.
“Solely a idiot would guess in opposition to Mom Nature,” he stated.
Science
Cluster of farmworkers diagnosed with rare animal-borne disease in Ventura County
A cluster of workers at Ventura County berry farms have been diagnosed with a rare disease often transmitted through sick animals’ urine, according to a public health advisory distributed to local doctors by county health officials Tuesday.
The bacterial infection, leptospirosis, has resulted in severe symptoms for some workers, including meningitis, an inflammation of the brain lining and spinal cord. Symptoms for mild cases included headaches and fevers.
The disease, which can be fatal, rarely spreads from human to human, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Ventura County Public Health has not given an official case count but said it had not identified any cases outside of the agriculture sector. The county’s agriculture commissioner was aware of 18 cases, the Ventura County Star reported.
The health department said it was first contacted by a local physician in October, who reported an unusual trend in symptoms among hospital patients.
After launching an investigation, the department identified leptospirosis as a probable cause of the illness and found most patients worked on caneberry farms that utilize hoop houses — greenhouse structures to shelter the crops.
As the investigation to identify any additional cases and the exact sources of exposure continues, Ventura County Public Health has asked healthcare providers to consider a leptospirosis diagnosis for sick agricultural workers, particularly berry harvesters.
Rodents are a common source and transmitter of disease, though other mammals — including livestock, cats and dogs — can transmit it as well.
The disease is spread through bodily fluids, such as urine, and is often contracted through cuts and abrasions that contact contaminated water and soil, where the bacteria can survive for months.
Humans can also contract the illness through contaminated food; however, the county health agency has found no known health risks to the general public, including through the contact or consumption of caneberries such as raspberries and blackberries.
Symptom onset typically occurs between two and 30 days after exposure, and symptoms can last for months if untreated, according to the CDC.
The illness often begins with mild symptoms, with fevers, chills, vomiting and headaches. Some cases can then enter a second, more severe phase that can result in kidney or liver failure.
Ventura County Public Health recommends agriculture and berry harvesters regularly rinse any cuts with soap and water and cover them with bandages. They also recommend wearing waterproof clothing and protection while working outdoors, including gloves and long-sleeve shirts and pants.
While there is no evidence of spread to the larger community, according to the department, residents should wash hands frequently and work to control rodents around their property if possible.
Pet owners can consult a veterinarian about leptospirosis vaccinations and should keep pets away from ponds, lakes and other natural bodies of water.
Science
Political stress: Can you stay engaged without sacrificing your mental health?
It’s been two weeks since Donald Trump won the presidential election, but Stacey Lamirand’s brain hasn’t stopped churning.
“I still think about the election all the time,” said the 60-year-old Bay Area resident, who wanted a Kamala Harris victory so badly that she flew to Pennsylvania and knocked on voters’ doors in the final days of the campaign. “I honestly don’t know what to do about that.”
Neither do the psychologists and political scientists who have been tracking the country’s slide toward toxic levels of partisanship.
Fully 69% of U.S. adults found the presidential election a significant source of stress in their lives, the American Psychological Assn. said in its latest Stress in America report.
The distress was present across the political spectrum, with 80% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 73% of independents surveyed saying they were stressed about the country’s future.
That’s unhealthy for the body politic — and for voters themselves. Stress can cause muscle tension, headaches, sleep problems and loss of appetite. Chronic stress can inflict more serious damage to the immune system and make people more vulnerable to heart attacks, strokes, diabetes, infertility, clinical anxiety, depression and other ailments.
In most circumstances, the sound medical advice is to disengage from the source of stress, therapists said. But when stress is coming from politics, that prescription pits the health of the individual against the health of the nation.
“I’m worried about people totally withdrawing from politics because it’s unpleasant,” said Aaron Weinschenk, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin–Green Bay who studies political behavior and elections. “We don’t want them to do that. But we also don’t want them to feel sick.”
Modern life is full of stressors of all kinds: paying bills, pleasing difficult bosses, getting along with frenemies, caring for children or aging parents (or both).
The stress that stems from politics isn’t fundamentally different from other kinds of stress. What’s unique about it is the way it encompasses and enhances other sources of stress, said Brett Ford, a social psychologist at the University of Toronto who studies the link between emotions and political engagement.
For instance, she said, elections have the potential to make everyday stressors like money and health concerns more difficult to manage as candidates debate policies that could raise the price of gas or cut off access to certain kinds of medical care.
Layered on top of that is the fact that political disagreements have morphed into moral conflicts that are perceived as pitting good against evil.
“When someone comes into power who is not on the same page as you morally, that can hit very deeply,” Ford said.
Partisanship and polarization have raised the stakes as well. Voters who feel a strong connection to a political party become more invested in its success. That can make a loss at the ballot box feel like a personal defeat, she said.
There’s also the fact that we have limited control over the outcome of an election. A patient with heart disease can improve their prognosis by taking medicine, changing their diet, getting more exercise or quitting smoking. But a person with political stress is largely at the mercy of others.
“Politics is many forms of stress all rolled into one,” Ford said.
Weinschenk observed this firsthand the day after the election.
“I could feel it when I went into my classroom,” said the professor, whose research has found that people with political anxiety aren’t necessarily anxious in general. “I have a student who’s transgender and a couple of students who are gay. Their emotional state was so closed down.”
That’s almost to be expected in a place like Wisconsin, whose swing-state status caused residents to be bombarded with political messages. The more campaign ads a person is exposed to, the greater the risk of being diagnosed with anxiety, depression or another psychological ailment, according to a 2022 study in the journal PLOS One.
Political messages seem designed to keep voters “emotionally on edge,” said Vaile Wright, a licensed psychologist in Villa Park, Ill., and a member of the APA’s Stress in America team.
“It encourages emotion to drive our decision-making behavior, as opposed to logic,” Wright said. “When we’re really emotionally stimulated, it makes it so much more challenging to have civil conversation. For politicians, I think that’s powerful, because emotions can be very easily manipulated.”
Making voters feel anxious is a tried-and-true way to grab their attention, said Christopher Ojeda, a political scientist at UC Merced who studies mental health and politics.
“Feelings of anxiety can be mobilizing, definitely,” he said. “That’s why politicians make fear appeals — they want people to get engaged.”
On the other hand, “feelings of depression are demobilizing and take you out of the political system,” said Ojeda, author of “The Sad Citizen: How Politics is Depressing and Why it Matters.”
“What [these feelings] can tell you is, ‘Things aren’t going the way I want them to. Maybe I need to step back,’” he said.
Genessa Krasnow has been seeing a lot of that since the election.
The Seattle entrepreneur, who also campaigned for Harris, said it grates on her to see people laughing in restaurants “as if nothing had happened.” At a recent book club meeting, her fellow group members were willing to let her vent about politics for five minutes, but they weren’t interested in discussing ways they could counteract the incoming president.
“They’re in a state of disengagement,” said Krasnow, who is 56. She, meanwhile, is looking for new ways to reach young voters.
“I am exhausted. I am so sad,” she said. “But I don’t believe that disengaging is the answer.”
That’s the fundamental trade-off, Ojeda said, and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution.
“Everyone has to make a decision about how much engagement they can tolerate without undermining their psychological well-being,” he said.
Lamirand took steps to protect her mental health by cutting social media ties with people whose values aren’t aligned with hers. But she will remain politically active and expects to volunteer for phone-banking duty soon.
“Doing something is the only thing that allows me to feel better,” Lamirand said. “It allows me to feel some level of control.”
Ideally, Ford said, people would not have to choose between being politically active and preserving their mental health. She is investigating ways to help people feel hopeful, inspired and compassionate about political challenges, since these emotions can motivate action without triggering stress and anxiety.
“We want to counteract this pattern where the more involved you are, the worse you are,” Ford said.
The benefits would be felt across the political spectrum. In the APA survey, similar shares of Democrats, Republicans and independents agreed with statements like, “It causes me stress that politicians aren’t talking about the things that are most important to me,” and, “The political climate has caused strain between my family members and me.”
“Both sides are very invested in this country, and that is a good thing,” Wright said. “Antipathy and hopelessness really doesn’t serve us in the long run.”
Science
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