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Could humanity catch a break with Omicron?

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Could humanity catch a break with Omicron?

Within the weeks because the Omicron variant made its presence recognized, scientists have braced themselves for yet one more nasty shock from a virus that has killed greater than 5.3 million and sickened tons of of hundreds of thousands extra. However as they kind by preliminary knowledge on the pressure, they’re cautiously contemplating an surprising chance: that with Omicron, the coronavirus could lastly be reducing humanity a bit of slack.

There’s nonetheless loads of cause to fret: Omicron has unfold to a minimum of 77 nations, discovered its strategy to a minimum of 35 U.S. states, and is on observe to grow to be the dominant pressure in Europe by mid-January.

In keeping with a raft of lab assessments and inhabitants research in South Africa, the place Omicron is surging, the variant has minimize deeply into the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine’s potential to forestall new infections. And in contrast with Delta and different variants, it’s more likely to reinfect individuals who have already recovered from a bout with COVID-19.

On the similar time, there are intriguing indicators that with Omicron, the coronavirus has taken a flip for the milder.

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South African adults contaminated in the course of the Omicron surge have been 29% much less prone to be hospitalized for COVID-19 in contrast with their countrymen who have been sickened in the course of the first wave of circumstances there in the summertime of 2020. And in contrast with previous waves, adults hospitalized with Omicron have been much less prone to be admitted to the intensive care unit, or to wish pricey and intrusive ranges of hospital care.

All of that implies that in a world dominated by Omicron, the proportion of contaminated individuals who die may fall effectively beneath the 1% to 2% loss of life charge that’s prevailed throughout a lot of the pandemic. Likewise, the surges in hospitalizations which have strained healthcare programs and exhausted medical professionals might be dampened.

If circumstances tended to be extra delicate and COVID-19 vaccines may nonetheless defend essentially the most weak folks from dying, a kinder, gentler Omicron — even a extremely contagious one — might be the break well being officers and scientists have been ready for.

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“Is that this the top of the pandemic?” Pieter Streicher, a coronavirus analyst on the College of Johannesburg, asked on Twitter.

Within the South African province of Gauteng, the place the primary main run-up of Omicron infections was seen, new infections linked to the variant peaked at a degree beforehand solely achieved by Delta — and it received there a lot quicker. But hospitalizations there are projected to be 25 instances decrease than could be anticipated with such a excessive an infection charge, Streicher famous.

COVID-19 loss of life charges throughout South Africa even have fallen precipitously regardless of the Omicron wave. If there is no such thing as a large surge in hospitalizations or deaths within the subsequent two to a few weeks, that “could effectively mark [a] turning level in [the] pandemic,” Dr. Shabir Madhi, an infectious-disease professional on the College of the Witwatersrand, wrote on Twitter.

A variant that mixes excessive transmissibility with drastically diminished virulence could be welcomed by many scientists. If an an infection with Omicron is unlikely to make a affected person severely unwell however leaves some immunity in its wake, it may act as a “pure vaccine,” stated Dr. Bruce Walker, an immunologist and founding director of the Ragon Institute in Cambridge, Mass.

It might be the start of the top.

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For now, it’s merely a glimmer of hope, and shut to 2 years of expertise have made scientists and well being officers cautious of assuming excellent news. However among the many microbiologists, epidemiologists and evolutionary biologists who’ve contemplated how the pandemic will finish, a cluster of mutations that defang the virus’ potential to sicken whereas boosting its transmissibility has lengthy been a favourite situation.

Beneath these circumstances, the virus turns into an endemic “nuisance virus,” becoming a member of 4 different coronaviruses which have settled in amongst people and are key causes of the frequent chilly. They’ve assured their survival by producing delicate sickness and leaving just a bit immunity of their wake. As soon as lodged within the higher airways of the respiratory system, the sniffles and coughs they generate be sure that infectious particles get spewed into the air and left behind on surfaces. However the mildness of these signs permits contaminated hosts to go to high school, work, supermarkets, gyms and film theaters, the higher to unfold their germs.

Individuals uncovered to those viruses over a lifetime construct some pure immunity. However the restricted immunity of many of the inhabitants ensures the viruses have a bounty of potential hosts 12 months in and 12 months out. The battle between pathogens and humanity reaches a state of stalemate.

“That’s what all of us hope,” stated Dr. Stanley Perlman, a College of Iowa virologist who has studied coronaviruses for many years.

However he stated it’s manner too early to know whether or not that hopeful situation will pan out with Omicron.

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“There have been so many twists and turns” throughout SARS-CoV-2’s two-year romp amongst people, Perlman stated. “We thought Delta was the top. We stated to ourselves, ‘That is going to be the one which’s going to stick with us,’ and now that doesn’t appear to be true. However all of us are hopeful.”

Others have been faster to specific doubt than acknowledge hope.

There are stark variations between South Africa and the US that make it dangerous to rely an excessive amount of on the early knowledge. Delicate COVID-19 is the overwhelming norm in South Africa as a result of 73% of South Africans are youthful than 40 (in contrast with 52% within the U.S.), an age group by which dangers of extreme illness are low. Simply 16% of South Africans are older than 60 (in contrast with 23% right here).

As well as, South Africa’s three waves of infections and its delayed entry to vaccines have produced a inhabitants that’s been contaminated and reinfected many instances. The ensuing immunity is prone to make for milder circumstances extra usually.

If Omicron does trigger extra delicate illness, that’s solely an enchancment of diploma. If the brand new variant makes solely 10% of these contaminated severely unwell with COVID-19 — reducing its virulence in half — that may appear to be an enormous win for people.

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However that reward might be erased by a large enough leap within the variant’s potential to unfold. If Omicron is twice as transmissible as Delta, even a 50% discount in virulence will probably be a wash. And if it’s greater than twice as contagious, hospitals will start to refill quick.

“Even whether it is milder — and I wouldn’t rule it out — the expansion charge of Omicron, the sheer numbers of infections it’s inflicting and how briskly it’s rising imply that we’re a great distance” from the pandemic’s endgame, stated William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s College of Public Well being.

If Omicron additionally erodes the safety of vaccines and readily reinfects COVID-19 survivors, that might be an additional level within the virus’ favor.

The very preliminary experiences from South Africa recommend that within the Omicron period, two doses of the Pfizer vaccine offered simply 33% safety in opposition to an infection and 70% safety in opposition to hospitalization — down from 80% and 93% in earlier months.

Even with diminished virulence, numbers like these may return million of vaccinated folks to the pool of these weak to changing into severely unwell. That will give the virus the chance to claw again any benefit it might have yielded to people.

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Whereas scientists cling to hope, they’re keenly conscious of the genetic curveballs the coronavirus may nonetheless throw. Even when it curbs its lethal methods and settles in for an extended keep, its error-prone replication equipment is sure to maintain producing mutations. And if Omicron is as transmissible as seems to be the case, it would get loads of possibilities to take action.

The virus may dispense humanity a small genetic favor right this moment and take it again tomorrow. Hanage isn’t respiration a sigh of reduction simply but.

“Solely a idiot would guess in opposition to Mom Nature,” he stated.

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Panama Canal’s Expansion Opened Routes for Fish to Relocate

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Panama Canal’s Expansion Opened Routes for Fish to Relocate

Night fell as the two scientists got to work, unfurling long nets off the end of their boat. The jungle struck up its evening symphony: the sweet chittering of insects, the distant bellowing of monkeys, the occasional screech of a kite. Crocodiles lounged in the shallows, their eyes glinting when headlamps were shined their way.

Across the water, cargo ships made dark shapes as they slid between the seas.

The Panama Canal has for more than a century connected far-flung peoples and economies, making it an essential artery for global trade — and, in recent weeks, a target of President-elect Donald J. Trump’s expansionist designs.

But of late the canal has been linking something else, too: the immense ecosystems of the Atlantic and the Pacific.

The two oceans have been separated for some three million years, ever since the isthmus of Panama rose out of the water and split them. The canal cut a path through the continent, yet for decades only a handful of marine fish species managed to migrate through the waterway and the freshwater reservoir, Lake Gatún, that feeds its locks.

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Then, in 2016, Panama expanded the canal to allow supersize ships, and all that started to change.

In less than a decade, fish from both oceans — snooks, jacks, snappers and more — have almost entirely displaced the freshwater species that were in the canal system before, scientists with the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama have found. Fishermen around Lake Gatún who rely on those species, chiefly peacock bass and tilapia, say their catches are growing scarce.

Researchers now worry that more fish could start making their way through from one ocean to the other. And no potential invader causes more concern than the venomous, candy-striped lionfish. They are known to inhabit Panama’s Caribbean coast, but not the eastern Pacific. If they made it there through the canal, they could ravage the defenseless local fish, just as they’ve done in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

Already, marine species are more than occasional visitors in Lake Gatún, said Phillip Sanchez, a fisheries ecologist with the Smithsonian. They’re “becoming the dominant community,” he said. They’re “pushing everything else out.”

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Sitting hurts. Train for your desk job with these 5 easy exercises for your head and neck

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Sitting hurts. Train for your desk job with these 5 easy exercises for your head and neck

It’s Monday morning, the start of your work week. You’ve put the finishing touches on that big report, prepared for that imminent presentation. But it’s likely that there’s one aspect of the job you’re not ready for: the marathon of sitting at your desk all day.

Time to start training. Because while it might not be earthshaking news, it bears repeating: Prolonged desk work can lead to a host of musculoskeletal issues, from annoying aches and pains to injuries.

Even if your work space is ergonomically correct — and even if you exercise regularly in your free time — excessive desk work (considered three or four continuous hours) can lead to weakened, tight muscles, joint stiffness, inflammation in the muscles and tendons and tight fascia (connective tissue). Add it all up, and the result is typically some level of discomfort.

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Left untreated, muscles that are stressed and deconditioned can lead to painful soft tissue problems, such as tendonitis and carpal tunnel syndrome, as well as chronic lower back pain. You can also become at risk for bulging or herniated discs, pinched nerves and other issues.

Desk work can also lead to biomechanical imbalances. Weakened glutes from sitting, for example, can lead to stress on the knees and lower back; tired hip flexors can alter pelvic movement, leading to lower back pain.

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Which is concerning seeing as sitting for work is both on the rise and can put us at risk for other serious health issues, says Stella Volpe, president of the American College of Sports Medicine.

“We know that there are more Americans now that have sedentary jobs than ever in the past,” Volpe says. “The more we sit, the greater risk we have of diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular disease.”

Blame our sitting-related woes on the advent of furniture, says David Raichlen, a USC evolutionary biologist who studies sedentary behavior and exercise.

Before chairs with a back and arm rests debuted as a status symbol among ancient Egyptians about 5,000 years ago, he says that humans mostly kneeled or squatted for about 2 million years. Those resting postures require light muscle activity, but when the body is fully supported by a chair or a couch, it turns off that activity in the body parts being supported by the furniture, Raichlen says. Prolonged inactivity can then lead to muscle atrophy and other problems.

“From an evolutionary standpoint, the human body hasn’t yet adapted to furniture,” Raichlen says. “It never had to deal with completely inactive muscles for long periods of time until very recently.”

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But the good news is you can train for long-distance sessions at your desk by working out your neck, your wrists, your lower back, even your feet and toes. These “exercise snacks,” as trainers call them, don’t require a trip to the gym, or equipment, or even much time.

They’re not meant to replace regular exercise, but they will — if done regularly — prepare your body for the challenge that is desk work by stretching and strengthening your muscles, taking pressure off your joints and reducing stiffness and inflammation in the area — all of which may alleviate pain and prevent new injuries.

“We’re designed to be hunter-gatherers, not to wiggle our fingers on a keyboard for eight hours straight,” says Dr. Joshua T. Goldman, a UCLA sports medicine physician. “We need to build up strength, for endurance purposes, to help those body parts tolerate that activity.”

“The human body hasn’t yet adapted to furniture. It never had to deal with completely inactive muscles for long periods of time until very recently.”

— David Raichlen, USC evolutionary biologist

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We spoke to exercise physiologists, sports medicine physicians, personal trainers, physical therapists and others to devise a short, five-minute exercise routine for six key regions of the body. We’ll roll out one routine a week — starting with the head and neck area — for six weeks, until you have a complete full-body workout.

Each exercise is purposefully simple, meant to take 30-60 seconds. And each routine lasts about five minutes or less in total. They’re ideally done throughout the day, so as to promote mobility and circulation, bringing blood flow and nutrients to the muscles and tendons, and increasing lubrication in the joints. Set a timer. Take a five-minute break to execute one routine. Then get back to work.

Still too busy? Do just one exercise, for 30-60 seconds, then continue working. If you get through one routine by day’s end, consider it a win. Focus on a different routine the next day.

“It all adds up,” Volpe says. “Our society often thinks that if you’re not running a marathon, you’re not doing enough. But the additive effect is still good for you.”

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A routine for your head and neck

The neck is a common area in which to develop pain from desk work. Looking at a computer monitor, we often jut our neck forward rather than tucking in our chin, as we should. That pushes our cervical column out of alignment and creates excess stress on the bones and discs of the cervical spine. It shortens and tightens muscles in the neck, which can lead to pain and cause tension headaches.

Do these exercises to help stretch and strengthen the muscles that support your head and neck. They’re demonstrated by trainer Melissa Gunn, of Pure Strength LA, whose team trains desk workers on how to protect their bodies through exercise.

  1. Clasp your hands behind your head and gently tuck your chin down toward your chest. Hold 10 seconds. Do five times.
  1. Slowly tilt your head to the left, bringing your ear toward your shoulder. Hold for 10 seconds, then raise it slowly back up to the starting point. Switch sides. Do three times on each side. To increase the stretch, after bringing your ear to your shoulder and holding, turn your head and look down toward your armpit on the same side, then return to starting position.
  1. Place your back flat against a wall and stand with your feet about eight inches from the wall, with knees slightly bent. Your arms should be flush against the wall, with palms facing outward. Tuck your chin slightly and push your head gently against the wall. Slide your arms up the wall, as if doing a snow angel. Go as far as you can with your arms and hands flush against wall. Stop when they begin to pull away from the wall — typically when palms are between shoulder height and head height. Do 10 times.
  1. Stand up straight and align your head, shoulders, hips and ankles — most people jut their neck forward without knowing it, creating static tension there, so consciously move your head back so it’s above your shoulders. Slowly roll your head in a circle, first to the left, clockwise, all the way around; then to the right, counter-clockwise. Do 3 times on each side.
  1. Stand up straight and align your head, shoulders, hips and ankles. Your arms should be beside you and your palms facing outward. Then pull your arms back but no further than the back pockets of your pants — without lifting your shoulders — and draw your shoulder blades together. Hold for 2-5 seconds. Do 5-10 times.

(Exercises came from Dr. Joshua T. Goldman, UCLA sports medicine; Melissa Gunn, Pure Strength LA; Tom Hendrickx, Pivot Physical Therapy; Vanessa Martinez Kercher, Indiana University-Bloomington, School of Public Health; Nico Pronk, Health Partners Institute; Niki Saccareccia, Light Inside Yoga.)

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Lead Poisoning May Have Made Ancient Romans a Bit Less Intelligent

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Lead Poisoning May Have Made Ancient Romans a Bit Less Intelligent

Roughly 2,000 years ago, the Roman Empire was flourishing. But something sinister was in the air. Literally.

Widespread pollution in the form of airborne lead was taking a toll on health and intelligence, researchers reported on Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

During the roughly two centuries starting in 27 B.C., a period of relative stability and prosperity known as the Pax Romana, the empire extended throughout Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. Its economy relied on silver coinage, which required huge mining operations.

But extracting silver from the Earth creates a whole lot of lead, said Joseph McConnell, an environmental scientist at the Desert Research Institute, a nonprofit group based in Nevada, and the lead author of the new research. “If you produce an ounce of silver, you’d have produced something like 10,000 ounces of lead.”

And lead has a host of negative effects on the human body. “There is no such thing as any safe level of lead exposure,” said Deborah Cory-Slechta, a neurotoxicologist at the University of Rochester Medical Center who was not involved in the research.

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Dr. McConnell and his colleagues have now detected lead in layers of ice collected in Russia and Greenland that date to the time of the Roman Empire. Lead entered the atmosphere from Roman mining operations, hitched a ride on air currents and eventually fell out of the atmosphere as snow in the Arctic, the team surmised.

The levels of lead that Dr. McConnell and his collaborators measured were extremely low, roughly one lead-containing molecule per trillion molecules of water. But the ice samples were collected thousands of miles from southern Europe, and lead concentrations would have been highly dispersed after such a long journey.

In order to estimate the amount of lead originally emitted by Roman mining operations, the researchers worked backward: Using powerful computer models of the planet’s atmosphere and making assumptions about the location of the mining sites, the team varied the amount of lead emitted to match the concentrations they measured in the ice. In one case, they assumed that all silver production took place at a historically important mining site in southwestern Spain known as Rio Tinto. In another case, they presumed that silver mining was equally spread out across dozens of sites.

The team calculated that anywhere from 3,300 to 4,600 tons of lead were being emitted into the atmosphere each year by Roman silver-mining operations. The researchers then estimated how all that lead would be scattered across the Roman Empire.

“We ran the model in the forward direction to see how those emissions would be distributed,” Dr. McConnell said.

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With those atmospheric-lead concentrations in hand, the researchers next used modern-day data to estimate how much lead would have entered the bloodstreams of people in ancient Rome.

Dr. McConnell and his colleagues focused on infants and children. Young people are particularly susceptible to taking up lead from their environment via ingestion and inhalation, said Dr. Bruce Lanphear, a public heath physician at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia who was not involved in the research. “Pound for pound, children, particularly infants, eat more and breathe more.”

In recent decades, lead levels in children’s blood have been correlated with a slew of physical and mental health metrics, including I.Q., Dr. Cory-Slechta said. “We have actual data on I.Q. scores in kids with different blood-lead concentrations.”

Using those modern-day relationships, Dr. McConnell and his team estimated that children across much of the Roman Empire would have had around 2 to 5 additional micrograms of lead, per deciliter of blood. Such levels correspond to I.Q. declines of roughly 2 or 3 points.

For comparison, American children in the 1970s had average blood-lead-level enhancements of around 15 micrograms more lead per deciliter of blood before the phasing out of leaded gasoline and leaded paints. Their corresponding average I.Q. decline was about 9 points.

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But lead exposure would have had other negative effects on Romans as well. Higher levels of lead in the blood have also been linked to higher incidences of preterm births and reduced cognitive functioning in old age. “It follows you throughout life,” Dr. Lanphear said.

Some scholars have hypothesized that lead poisoning played an important role in the decline of the Roman Empire. But that idea has been called into question, at least when it comes to water contaminated by lead pipes. A 2014 study showed that, while the pipes used to distribute water in Rome increased lead levels, the water was unlikely to be truly harmful.

These new findings make sense, said Hugo Delile, a geoarchaeologist at the French National Centre for Scientific Research, who was not involved in the research. “They confirm the extent of lead pollution resulting from Roman mining and metallurgical activities.”

According to Dr. McConnell, the research also confers a dubious honor on Roman mining. “To my knowledge, it’s the earliest example of widespread industrial pollution,” he said.

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