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Could humanity catch a break with Omicron?

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Could humanity catch a break with Omicron?

Within the weeks because the Omicron variant made its presence recognized, scientists have braced themselves for yet one more nasty shock from a virus that has killed greater than 5.3 million and sickened tons of of hundreds of thousands extra. However as they kind by preliminary knowledge on the pressure, they’re cautiously contemplating an surprising chance: that with Omicron, the coronavirus could lastly be reducing humanity a bit of slack.

There’s nonetheless loads of cause to fret: Omicron has unfold to a minimum of 77 nations, discovered its strategy to a minimum of 35 U.S. states, and is on observe to grow to be the dominant pressure in Europe by mid-January.

In keeping with a raft of lab assessments and inhabitants research in South Africa, the place Omicron is surging, the variant has minimize deeply into the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine’s potential to forestall new infections. And in contrast with Delta and different variants, it’s more likely to reinfect individuals who have already recovered from a bout with COVID-19.

On the similar time, there are intriguing indicators that with Omicron, the coronavirus has taken a flip for the milder.

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South African adults contaminated in the course of the Omicron surge have been 29% much less prone to be hospitalized for COVID-19 in contrast with their countrymen who have been sickened in the course of the first wave of circumstances there in the summertime of 2020. And in contrast with previous waves, adults hospitalized with Omicron have been much less prone to be admitted to the intensive care unit, or to wish pricey and intrusive ranges of hospital care.

All of that implies that in a world dominated by Omicron, the proportion of contaminated individuals who die may fall effectively beneath the 1% to 2% loss of life charge that’s prevailed throughout a lot of the pandemic. Likewise, the surges in hospitalizations which have strained healthcare programs and exhausted medical professionals might be dampened.

If circumstances tended to be extra delicate and COVID-19 vaccines may nonetheless defend essentially the most weak folks from dying, a kinder, gentler Omicron — even a extremely contagious one — might be the break well being officers and scientists have been ready for.

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“Is that this the top of the pandemic?” Pieter Streicher, a coronavirus analyst on the College of Johannesburg, asked on Twitter.

Within the South African province of Gauteng, the place the primary main run-up of Omicron infections was seen, new infections linked to the variant peaked at a degree beforehand solely achieved by Delta — and it received there a lot quicker. But hospitalizations there are projected to be 25 instances decrease than could be anticipated with such a excessive an infection charge, Streicher famous.

COVID-19 loss of life charges throughout South Africa even have fallen precipitously regardless of the Omicron wave. If there is no such thing as a large surge in hospitalizations or deaths within the subsequent two to a few weeks, that “could effectively mark [a] turning level in [the] pandemic,” Dr. Shabir Madhi, an infectious-disease professional on the College of the Witwatersrand, wrote on Twitter.

A variant that mixes excessive transmissibility with drastically diminished virulence could be welcomed by many scientists. If an an infection with Omicron is unlikely to make a affected person severely unwell however leaves some immunity in its wake, it may act as a “pure vaccine,” stated Dr. Bruce Walker, an immunologist and founding director of the Ragon Institute in Cambridge, Mass.

It might be the start of the top.

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For now, it’s merely a glimmer of hope, and shut to 2 years of expertise have made scientists and well being officers cautious of assuming excellent news. However among the many microbiologists, epidemiologists and evolutionary biologists who’ve contemplated how the pandemic will finish, a cluster of mutations that defang the virus’ potential to sicken whereas boosting its transmissibility has lengthy been a favourite situation.

Beneath these circumstances, the virus turns into an endemic “nuisance virus,” becoming a member of 4 different coronaviruses which have settled in amongst people and are key causes of the frequent chilly. They’ve assured their survival by producing delicate sickness and leaving just a bit immunity of their wake. As soon as lodged within the higher airways of the respiratory system, the sniffles and coughs they generate be sure that infectious particles get spewed into the air and left behind on surfaces. However the mildness of these signs permits contaminated hosts to go to high school, work, supermarkets, gyms and film theaters, the higher to unfold their germs.

Individuals uncovered to those viruses over a lifetime construct some pure immunity. However the restricted immunity of many of the inhabitants ensures the viruses have a bounty of potential hosts 12 months in and 12 months out. The battle between pathogens and humanity reaches a state of stalemate.

“That’s what all of us hope,” stated Dr. Stanley Perlman, a College of Iowa virologist who has studied coronaviruses for many years.

However he stated it’s manner too early to know whether or not that hopeful situation will pan out with Omicron.

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“There have been so many twists and turns” throughout SARS-CoV-2’s two-year romp amongst people, Perlman stated. “We thought Delta was the top. We stated to ourselves, ‘That is going to be the one which’s going to stick with us,’ and now that doesn’t appear to be true. However all of us are hopeful.”

Others have been faster to specific doubt than acknowledge hope.

There are stark variations between South Africa and the US that make it dangerous to rely an excessive amount of on the early knowledge. Delicate COVID-19 is the overwhelming norm in South Africa as a result of 73% of South Africans are youthful than 40 (in contrast with 52% within the U.S.), an age group by which dangers of extreme illness are low. Simply 16% of South Africans are older than 60 (in contrast with 23% right here).

As well as, South Africa’s three waves of infections and its delayed entry to vaccines have produced a inhabitants that’s been contaminated and reinfected many instances. The ensuing immunity is prone to make for milder circumstances extra usually.

If Omicron does trigger extra delicate illness, that’s solely an enchancment of diploma. If the brand new variant makes solely 10% of these contaminated severely unwell with COVID-19 — reducing its virulence in half — that may appear to be an enormous win for people.

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However that reward might be erased by a large enough leap within the variant’s potential to unfold. If Omicron is twice as transmissible as Delta, even a 50% discount in virulence will probably be a wash. And if it’s greater than twice as contagious, hospitals will start to refill quick.

“Even whether it is milder — and I wouldn’t rule it out — the expansion charge of Omicron, the sheer numbers of infections it’s inflicting and how briskly it’s rising imply that we’re a great distance” from the pandemic’s endgame, stated William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s College of Public Well being.

If Omicron additionally erodes the safety of vaccines and readily reinfects COVID-19 survivors, that might be an additional level within the virus’ favor.

The very preliminary experiences from South Africa recommend that within the Omicron period, two doses of the Pfizer vaccine offered simply 33% safety in opposition to an infection and 70% safety in opposition to hospitalization — down from 80% and 93% in earlier months.

Even with diminished virulence, numbers like these may return million of vaccinated folks to the pool of these weak to changing into severely unwell. That will give the virus the chance to claw again any benefit it might have yielded to people.

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Whereas scientists cling to hope, they’re keenly conscious of the genetic curveballs the coronavirus may nonetheless throw. Even when it curbs its lethal methods and settles in for an extended keep, its error-prone replication equipment is sure to maintain producing mutations. And if Omicron is as transmissible as seems to be the case, it would get loads of possibilities to take action.

The virus may dispense humanity a small genetic favor right this moment and take it again tomorrow. Hanage isn’t respiration a sigh of reduction simply but.

“Solely a idiot would guess in opposition to Mom Nature,” he stated.

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Racing to Save California’s Elephant Seals From Bird Flu

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Racing to Save California’s Elephant Seals From Bird Flu
During the breeding season, the center sees a lot of underweight, malnourished elephant seal pups, many of which are still too young to fend for themselves or even swim. Sometimes, they also see elephant seals with parasites or traumatic injuries, such as dog bites or blunt force trauma from boat propellers.

For the last few years, the Marine Mammal Center has been testing any patients with bird-flu-like symptoms, which include respiratory and neurological problems, for the virus.

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Lawmakers ask Newsom and waste agency to follow the law on plastic legislation

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Lawmakers ask Newsom and waste agency to follow the law on plastic legislation

California lawmakers are taking aim at proposed rules to implement a state law aimed at curbing plastic waste, saying the draft regulations proposed by CalRecycle undermine the letter and intent of the legislation.

In a letter to Gov. Gavin Newsom and two of his top administrators, the lawmakers said CalRecycle exceeded its authority by drafting regulations that don’t abide by the terms set out by the law, Senate Bill 54.

“While we support many changes in the current draft regulations, we have identified several provisions that are inconsistent with the governing statute … and where CalRecycle has exceeded its authority under the law,” the lawmakers wrote in the letter to Newsom, California Environmental Protection agency chief Yana Garcia, and Zoe Heller, director of the state’s Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery, or CalRecycle.

The letter, which was written by Sen. Catherine Blakespear (D-Encinitas) and Sen. Benjamin Allen (D-Santa Monica), was signed by 21 other lawmakers, including Sen. John Laird (D-Santa Cruz) and Assemblymembers Al Muratsuchi (D-Rolling Hills Estates) and Monique Limón (D-Goleta).

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CalRecycle submitted informal draft regulations two weeks ago that are designed to implement the law, which was authored by Allen, and signed into law by Newsom in 2022.

The lawmakers’ concerns are directed at the draft regulations’ potential approval of polluting recycling technologies — which the language of the law expressly prohibits — as well as the document’s expansive exemption for products and packaging that fall under the purview of the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration.

The inclusion of such blanket exemptions is “not only contrary to the statute but also risks significantly increasing the program’s costs,” the lawmakers wrote. They said the new regulations allow “producers to unilaterally determine which products are subject to the law, without a requirement or process to back up such a claim.”

Daniel Villaseñor, a spokesman for the governor, said in an email that Newsom “was clear when he asked CalRecycle to restart these regulations that they should work to minimize costs for small businesses and families, and these rules are a step in the right direction …”

At a workshop held at the agency’s headquarters in Sacramento this week, CalRecycle staff responded to similar criticisms, and underscored that these are informal draft regulations, which means they can be changed.

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“I know from comments we’ve already been receiving that some of the provisions, as we have written them … don’t quite come across in the way that we intended,” said Karen Kayfetz, chief of CalRecycle’s Product Stewardship branch, adding that she was hopeful “a robust conversation” could help highlight areas where interpretations of the regulations’ language differs from the agency’s intent.

“It was not our intent, of course, to ever go outside of the statute, and so to the extent that it may be interpreted in the language that we’ve provided, that there are provisions that extend beyond … it’s our wish to narrow that back down,” she said.

These new draft regulations are the expedited result of the agency’s attempt to satisfy Newsom’s concerns about the law, which he said could increase costs to California households if not properly implemented.

Newsom rejected the agency’s first attempt at drafting regulations — the result of nearly three years of negotiations by scores of stakeholders, including plastic producers, package developers, agricultural interests, environmental groups, municipalities, recycling companies and waste haulers — and ordered the waste agency to start the process over.

Critics say the new draft regulations cater to industry and could result in even higher costs to both California households, which have seen large increases in their residential waste hauling fees, as well as to the state’s various jurisdictions, which are taxed with cleaning up plastic waste and debris clogging the state’s rivers, highways, beaches and parks.

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The law is molded on a series of legislative efforts described as Extended Producer Responsibility laws, which are designed to shift the cost of waste removal and disposal from the state’s jurisdictions and taxpayers to the industries that produce the waste — theoretically incentivizing a circular economy, in which product and packaging producers develop materials that can be reused, recycled or composted.

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U.S. just radically changed its COVID vaccine recommendations: How will it affect you?

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U.S. just radically changed its COVID vaccine recommendations: How will it affect you?

As promised, federal health officials have dropped longstanding recommendations that healthy children and healthy pregnant women should get the COVID-19 vaccines.

“The COVID-19 vaccine schedule is very clear. The vaccine is not recommended for pregnant women. The vaccine is not recommended for healthy children,” the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said in a post on X on Friday.

In formal documents, health officials offer “no guidance” on whether pregnant women should get the vaccine, and ask that parents talk with a healthcare provider before getting the vaccine for their children.

The decision was done in a way that is still expected to require insurers to pay for COVID-19 vaccines for children should their parents still want the shots for them.

The new vaccine guidelines were posted to the website of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention late Thursday.

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The insurance question

It wasn’t immediately clear whether insurers will still be required under federal law to pay for vaccinations for pregnant women.

The Trump administration’s decision came amid criticism from officials at the nation’s leading organizations for pediatricians and obstetricians. Some doctors said there is no new evidence to support removing the recommendation that healthy pregnant women and healthy children should get the COVID vaccine.

“This situation continues to make things unclear and creates confusion for patients, providers and payers,” the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists said in a statement Friday.

Earlier in the week, the group’s president, Dr. Steven Fleischman, said the science hasn’t changed, and that the COVID-19 vaccine is safe during pregnancy, and protects both the mom-to-be and their infants after birth.

“It is very clear that COVID-19 infection during pregnancy can be catastrophic,” Fleischman said in a statement.

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Dr. Susan Kressly, president of the American Academy of Pediatrics, criticized the recommendation change as being rolled out in a “conflicting, confusing” manner, with “no explanation of the evidence used to reach their conclusions.”

“For many families, the COVID vaccine will remain an important way they protect their child and family from this disease and its complications, including long COVID,” Kressly said in a statement.

Some experts said the Trump administration should have waited to hear recommendations from a committee of doctors and scientists that typically advises the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on immunization recommendations, which is set to meet in late June.

California’s view

The California Department of Public Health on Thursday said it supported the longstanding recommendation that “COVID-19 vaccines be available for all persons aged 6 months and older who wish to be vaccinated.”

The changes come as the CDC has faced an exodus of senior leaders and has lacked an acting director. Typically, as was the case during the first Trump administration and in the Biden administration, it is the CDC director who makes final decisions on vaccine recommendations. The CDC director has traditionally accepted the consensus viewpoint of the CDC’s panel of doctors and scientists serving on the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.

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Even with the longstanding recommendations, vaccination rates were relatively low for children and pregnant women. As of late April, 13% of children, and 14.4% of pregnant women, had received the latest updated COVID-19 vaccine, according to the CDC. About 23% of adults overall received the updated vaccine, as did 27.8% of seniors age 65 and over.

The CDC estimates that since October, there have been 31,000 to 50,000 COVID deaths and between 270,000 and 430,000 COVID hospitalizations.

Here are some key points about the CDC’s decision:

New vaccination guidance for healthy children

Previously, the CDC’s guidance was simple: everyone ages 6 months and up should get an updated COVID vaccination. The most recent version was unveiled in September, and is officially known as the 2024-25 COVID-19 vaccine.

As of Thursday, the CDC, on its pediatric immunization schedule page, says that for healthy children — those age 6 months to 17 years — decisions about COVID vaccination should come from “shared clinical decision-making,” which is “informed by a decision process between the healthcare provider and the patient or parent/guardian.”

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“Where the parent presents with a desire for their child to be vaccinated, children 6 months and older may receive COVID-19 vaccination, informed by the clinical judgment of a healthcare provider and personal preference and circumstances,” the CDC says.

The vaccine-skeptic secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., contended in a video posted on Tuesday there was a “lack of any clinical data to support the repeat booster strategy in children.”

However, an earlier presentation by CDC staff said that, in general, getting an updated vaccine provides both children and adults additional protection from COVID-related emergency room and urgent care visits.

Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UC San Francisco infectious diseases expert, said he would have preferred the CDC retain its broader recommendation that everyone age 6 months and up get the updated vaccine.

“It’s simpler,” Chin-Hong said. He added there’s no new data out there that to him suggests children shouldn’t be getting the updated COVID vaccine.

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A guideline that involves “shared decision-making,” Chin-Hong said, “is a very nebulous recommendation, and it doesn’t result in a lot of people getting vaccines.”

Kressly, of the American Academy of Pediatrics, said the shared clinical decision-making model is challenging to implement “because it lacks clear guidance for the conversations between a doctor and a family. Doctors and families need straightforward, evidence-based guidance, not vague, impractical frameworks.”

Some experts had been worried that the CDC would make a decision that would’ve ended the federal requirement that insurers cover the cost of COVID-19 vaccines for children. The out-of-pocket cost for a COVID-19 vaccine can reach around $200.

New vaccine guidance for pregnant women

In its adult immunization schedule for people who have medical conditions, the CDC now says it has “no guidance” on whether pregnant women should get the COVID-19 vaccine.

In his 58-second video on Tuesday, Kennedy did not explain why he thought pregnant women should not be recommended to get vaccinated against COVID-19.

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Chin-Hong, of UCSF, called the decision to drop the vaccination recommendation for pregnant women “100%” wrong.

Pregnancy brings with it a relatively compromised immune system. Pregnant women have “a high chance of getting infections, and they get more serious disease — including COVID,” Chin-Hong said.

A pregnant woman getting vaccinated also protects the newborn. “You really need the antibodies in the pregnant person to go across the placenta to protect the newborn,” Chin-Hong said.

It’s especially important, Chin-Hong and others say, because infants under 6 months of age can’t be vaccinated against COVID-19, and they have as high a risk of severe complications as do seniors age 65 and over.

Not the worst-case scenario for vaccine proponents

Earlier in the week, some experts worried the new rules would allow insurers to stop covering the cost of the COVID vaccine for healthy children.

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Their worries were sparked by the video message on Tuesday, in which Kennedy said that “the COVID vaccine for healthy children and healthy pregnant women has been removed from the CDC recommended immunization schedule.”

By late Thursday, the CDC came out with its formal decision — the agency dropped the recommendation for healthy children, but still left the shot on the pediatric immunization schedule.

Leaving the COVID-19 vaccine on the immunization schedule “means the vaccine will be covered by insurance” for healthy children, the American Academy of Pediatrics said in a statement.

How pharmacies and insurers are responding

There are some questions that don’t have immediate answers. Will some vaccine providers start requiring doctor’s notes in order for healthy children and healthy pregnant women to get vaccinated? Will it be harder for children and pregnant women to get vaccinated at a pharmacy?

In a statement, CVS Pharmacy said it “follows federal guidance and state law regarding vaccine administration and are monitoring any changes that the government may make regarding vaccine eligibility.” The insurer Aetna, which is owned by CVS, is also monitoring any changes federal officials make to COVID-19 vaccine eligibility “and will evaluate whether coverage adjustments are needed.”

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Blue Shield of California said it will not change its practices on covering COVID-19 vaccines.

“Despite the recent federal policy change on COVID-19 vaccinations for healthy children and pregnant women, Blue Shield of California will continue to cover COVID-19 vaccines for all eligible members,” the insurer said in a statement. “The decision on whether to receive a COVID-19 vaccine is between our member and their provider. Blue Shield does not require prior authorization for COVID-19 vaccines.”

Under California law, health plans regulated by the state Department of Managed Health Care must cover COVID-19 vaccines without requiring prior authorization, the agency said Friday. “If consumers access these services from a provider in their health plan’s network, they will not need to pay anything for these services,” the statement said.

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