Politics
Why replacing Biden with Newsom or some ‘mythical perfect Democrat’ is unlikely
Anyone hoping California Gov. Gavin Newsom or some other Democrat will take Joe Biden’s place on the 2024 presidential ballot is likely to be disappointed.
Despite renewed anxiety over the president’s age, party officials and pollsters say swapping him out is a bad idea, and nearly impossible without Biden’s sign-off.
“No one who’s done this at this level thinks that removing the sitting president of the United States, who’s a Democrat, from your ballot is remotely plausible,” said Cornell Belcher, one of former President Obama’s pollsters. “It’s completely absurd.”
A special counsel questioned Biden’s mental acuity last week in a report that explained why criminal charges were not warranted for possession of classified documents, offering fresh fodder to critics of the president and fueling concerns about his ability to serve another four years in office.
Hosts of ABC’s “The View” kindled the conversation on Friday in an on-air debate over Biden’s candidacy and whether Vice President Kamala Harris or Newsom would be better options for the party. Republican Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor and former presidential candidate, and other political pundits have suggested Democrats should trade Biden for another candidate.
Here are five reasons why Biden — and not Newsom — is all but certain to remain the Democratic presidential nominee:
1) The days of smoke-filled rooms are over
Biden, like most incumbent presidents, is in control of the party, meaning people who work for the Democratic National Committee and other party organs are aligned with his campaign operation. The deadline for challenging him in a Democratic primary has expired in most states, including California, and he faces only scant opposition. He could be replaced if he chose to step aside and free his delegates at the party’s national convention in Chicago this August, the type of scenario that hasn’t happened in decades.
“I’m sure there are a lot of people who might think of themselves as plan B,” said David Axelrod, Obama’s chief strategist. “But plan A seems to be pretty determined to stay in the race.”
Even under the remote scenario in which Biden pulls out and leaves an open convention, chaos would be more likely than consensus.
“There is this mythology that we’re living in the 1940s and a bunch of party leaders come together and say, ‘That’s our guy,’” Axelrod said. “That’s not the way it works anymore. There would be a number of people who would surface. I rate the odds of that exigency very, very low.”
Another Democratic operative who has connections to top donors in California and major East Coast hubs said there has been lingering chatter about seeking a replacement since last year, but no serious discussion. Most people recognize the need to move on from the replacement fantasy, said the operative, who requested anonymity to avoid antagonizing party officials.
Belcher said the loudest intraparty talk has been fueled by progressives, the same people he said made a similar argument ahead of Obama’s second term.
But even some of the most liberal in the Democratic Party pushed back on the idea.
R.L. Miller, a DNC delegate from California and founder of Climate Hawks Vote, described the possibility that Biden steps out of the race as “an extraordinarily unlikely scenario” and the odds that the party would tap Newsom to replace him as even more remote.
“You might as well write about the possibility of asteroids crashing out of the sky and wiping out all light west of the Hudson where ‘The View’ is filmed,” Miller said.
2) The time has passed
Hans Noel, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University, said if Biden steps down today, Democrats seeking to replace him could scramble to run in the handful of states where primary ballot access deadlines have not passed. The decision to select a replacement would still be kicked to the Democratic National Convention this summer.
Delegates would probably elect Biden on the first ballot. Biden would have to turn it down. Delegates would vote for a replacement on a second ballot and so on until a nominee was chosen.
If Biden announced his plans in advance, replacement candidates would have a little time to campaign. If he decides to turn down the nomination at the convention, it would be even messier.
“All of the people who are delegates now are free to vote for whoever they think is the right candidate,” Noel said of that scenerio.
The process could look similar to the 1968 Democratic National Convention, which was also held in Chicago. Months before the convention, then President Lyndon B. Johnson announced that he would not seek reelection and candidate Robert Kennedy was killed after winning the Democratic primary in California.
Amid protests, violence and an effort to nominate an actual pig, delegates chose Hubert Humphrey, Johnson’s vice president, as the Democratic nominee.
Biden withdrawing after the convention could trigger an even more uncertain and unprecedented process.
3) Newsom remains on Team Biden, too
“A gazillion percent,” said Sean Clegg, a senior political advisor to Newsom. “If President Biden asks this guy to do anything, he’s going to do it and give everything he has to support the ticket.”
Clegg said Newsom’s camp isn’t discussing the possibility of replacing Biden because it isn’t happening.
That might seem hard to believe from a governor who appears to relish the national spotlight, is actively attempting to boost his profile with voters across the country and successfully prodded his Republican rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, to debate him on Fox News late last year.
At an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco in November, Biden commended Newsom’s performance as governor and, perhaps inadvertently, stoked the speculation.
“Matter of fact, he could be anything he wants,” Biden joked. “He could have the job I’m looking for.”
Newsom, who repeatedly denies having presidential ambitions, has been careful to answer questions about his candidacy with praise for Biden.
“I’ll go to the ends of the earth for this guy,” Newsom said in an MSNBC interview.
4) What about the sitting vice president?
Among Democratic politicians, Miller mentioned Harris, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Newsom as people she would expect to try out for the job if Biden suffered a serious health problem.
“Of the four names I mentioned, I would put Newsom dead last,” she said.
Harris, she said, is best positioned for the job as Biden’s vice president. Whitmer and Pritzker would have a shot at winning swing states.
Harris has her own problems, though. Only 40% of voters view her favorably, compared with 55% who hold a negative view, according to the Los Angeles Times polling tracker. That’s roughly the same as Biden’s polling average.
Her first campaign for president in 2020 flamed out before the primaries and she’s been targeted relentlessly by conservatives, who have tried to cast her as a dangerous heir apparent if Biden drops out or falters during a second term.
5) Newsom symbolizes California liberalism
A recent Los Angeles Times-Leger poll found 50% of American adults — including 30% of Democrats — believe the state is too liberal. The poll found sharp differences between how Californians and people outside the state view issues such as climate, race and gender. Nearly half of Californians say abortion should be legal in all cases, compared with a quarter of adults nationwide.
The same poll found Newsom was viewed positively by about a third of Americans, negatively by another third and and unknown by everyone else. Those numbers are decent in a sharply polarized environment. But any Democrat who became the nominee would have to withstand a new onslaught of criticism.
“If you put up a choice of Joe Biden against some mythical perfect Democrat, the mythical perfect Democrat wins,” said one operative with ties to the DNC. “But there’s no actual Democrat that voters can agree on as an alternative.”
Politics
Trump admin sues Illinois Gov. Pritzker over laws shielding migrants from courthouse arrests
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The U.S. Justice Department filed a lawsuit against Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker over new laws that aim to protect migrants from arrest at key locations, including courthouses, hospitals and day cares.
The lawsuit was filed on Monday, arguing that the new protective measures prohibiting immigration agents from detaining migrants going about daily business at specific locations are unconstitutional and “threaten the safety of federal officers,” the DOJ said in a statement.
The governor signed laws earlier this month that ban civil arrests at and around courthouses across the state. The measures also require hospitals, day care centers and public universities to have procedures in place for addressing civil immigration operations and protecting personal information.
The laws, which took effect immediately, also provide legal steps for people whose constitutional rights were violated during the federal immigration raids in the Chicago area, including $10,000 in damages for a person unlawfully arrested while attempting to attend a court proceeding.
PRITZKER SIGNS BILL TO FURTHER SHIELD ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS IN ILLINOIS FROM DEPORTATIONS
The Trump administration filed a lawsuit against Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker over new laws that aim to protect migrants from arrest at key locations. (Getty Images)
Pritzker, a Democrat, has led the fight against the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown in Illinois, particularly over the indiscriminate and sometimes violent nature in which they are detained.
But the governor’s office reaffirmed that he is not against arresting illegal migrants who commit violent crimes.
“However, the Trump administration’s masked agents are not targeting the ‘worst of the worst’ — they are harassing and detaining law-abiding U.S. citizens and Black and brown people at daycares, hospitals and courthouses,” spokesperson Jillian Kaehler said in a statement.
Earlier this year, the federal government reversed a Biden administration policy prohibiting immigration arrests in sensitive locations such as hospitals, schools and churches.
The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s “Operation Midway Blitz,” which began in September in the Chicago area but appears to have since largely wound down for now, led to more than 4,000 arrests. But data on people arrested from early September through mid-October showed only 15% had criminal records, with the vast majority of offenses being traffic violations, misdemeanors or nonviolent felonies.
Gov. JB Pritzker has led the fight against the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown in Illinois. (Kamil Krazaczynski/AFP via Getty Images)
Immigration and legal advocates have praised the new laws protecting migrants in Illinois, saying many immigrants were avoiding courthouses, hospitals and schools out of fear of arrest amid the president’s mass deportation agenda.
The laws are “a brave choice” in opposing ICE and U.S. Customs and Border Protection, according to Lawrence Benito, executive director of the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights.
“Our collective resistance to ICE and CBP’s violent attacks on our communities goes beyond community-led rapid response — it includes legislative solutions as well,” he said.
The DOJ claims Pritzker and state Attorney General Kwame Raoul, also a Democrat, violated the U.S. Constitution’s Supremacy Clause, which establishes that federal law is the “supreme Law of the Land.”
ILLINOIS LAWMAKERS PASS BILL BANNING ICE IMMIGRATION ARRESTS NEAR COURTHOUSES
Border Patrol Commander Gregory Bovino leaves the Dirksen U.S. Courthouse in Chicago. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
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Raoul and his staff are reviewing the DOJ’s complaint.
“This new law reflects our belief that no one is above the law, regardless of their position or authority,” Pritzker’s office said. “Unlike the Trump administration, Illinois is protecting constitutional rights in our state.”
The lawsuit is part of an initiative by U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi to block state and local laws the DOJ argues impede federal immigration operations, as other states have also made efforts to protect migrants against federal raids at sensitive locations.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Politics
Supreme Court rules against Trump, bars National Guard deployment in Chicago
WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court ruled against President Trump on Tuesday and said he did not have legal authority to deploy the National Guard in Chicago to protect federal immigration agents.
Acting on a 6-3 vote, the justices denied Trump’s appeal and upheld orders from a federal district judge and the U.S. 7th Circuit Court of Appeals that said the president had exaggerated the threat and overstepped his authority.
The decision is a major defeat for Trump and his broad claim that he had the power to deploy militia troops in U.S. cities.
In an unsigned order, the court said the Militia Act allows the president to deploy the National Guard only if the regular U.S. armed forces were unable to quell violence.
The law dating to 1903 says the president may call up and deploy the National Guard if he faces the threat of an invasion or a rebellion or is “unable with the regular forces to execute the laws of the United States.”
That phrase turned out to be crucial.
Trump’s lawyers assumed it referred to the police and federal agents. But after taking a close look, the justices concluded it referred to the regular U.S. military, not civilian law enforcement or the National Guard.
“To call the Guard into active federal service under the [Militia Act], the President must be ‘unable’ with the regular military ‘to execute the laws of the United States,’” the court said in Trump vs. Illinois.
That standard will rarely be met, the court added.
“Under the Posse Comitatus Act, the military is prohibited from execut[ing] the laws except in cases and under circumstances expressly authorized by the Constitution or Act of Congress,” the court said. “So before the President can federalize the Guard … he likely must have statutory or constitutional authority to execute the laws with the regular military and must be ‘unable’ with those forces to perform that function.
“At this preliminary stage, the Government has failed to identify a source of authority that would allow the military to execute the laws in Illinois,” the court said.
Although the court was acting on an emergency appeal, its decision is a significant defeat for Trump and is not likely to be reversed on appeal. Often, the court issues one-sentence emergency orders. But in this case, the justices wrote a three-page opinion to spell out the law and limit the president’s authority.
Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who oversees appeals from Illinois, and Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. cast the deciding votes. Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh agreed with the outcome, but said he preferred a narrow and more limited ruling.
Conservative Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel A. Alito Jr. and Neil M. Gorsuch dissented.
Alito, in dissent, said the “court fails to explain why the President’s inherent constitutional authority to protect federal officers and property is not sufficient to justify the use of National Guard members in the relevant area for precisely that purpose.”
California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta filed a brief in the Chicago case that warned of the danger of the president using the military in American cities.
“Today, Americans can breathe a huge sigh of relief,” Bonta said Tuesday. “While this is not necessarily the end of the road, it is a significant, deeply gratifying step in the right direction. We plan to ask the lower courts to reach the same result in our cases — and we are hopeful they will do so quickly.”
The U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals had allowed the deployments in Los Angeles and Portland, Ore., after ruling that judges must defer to the president.
But U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer ruled Dec. 10 that the federalized National Guard troops in Los Angeles must be returned to Newsom’s control.
Trump’s lawyers had not claimed in their appeal that the president had the authority to deploy the military for ordinary law enforcement in the city. Instead, they said the Guard troops would be deployed “to protect federal officers and federal property.”
The two sides in the Chicago case, like in Portland, told dramatically different stories about the circumstances leading to Trump’s order.
Democratic officials in Illinois said small groups of protesters objected to the aggressive enforcement tactics used by federal immigration agents. They said police were able to contain the protests, clear the entrances and prevent violence.
By contrast, administration officials described repeated instances of disruption, confrontation and violence in Chicago. They said immigration agents were harassed and blocked from doing their jobs, and they needed the protection the National Guard could supply.
Trump Solicitor Gen. D. John Sauer said the president had the authority to deploy the Guard if agents could not enforce the immigration laws.
“Confronted with intolerable risks of harm to federal agents and coordinated, violent opposition to the enforcement of federal law,” Trump called up the National Guard “to defend federal personnel, property, and functions in the face of ongoing violence,” Sauer told the court in an emergency appeal filed in mid-October.
Illinois state lawyers disputed the administration’s account.
“The evidence shows that federal facilities in Illinois remain open, the individuals who have violated the law by attacking federal authorities have been arrested, and enforcement of immigration law in Illinois has only increased in recent weeks,” state Solicitor Gen. Jane Elinor Notz said in response to the administration’s appeal.
The Constitution gives Congress the power “to provide for calling forth the militia to execute the laws of the union, suppress insurrections and repel invasions.”
But on Oct. 29, the justices asked both sides to explain what the law meant when it referred to the “regular forces.”
Until then, both sides had assumed it referred to federal agents and police, not the standing U.S. armed forces.
A few days before, Georgetown law professor and former Justice Department lawyer Martin Lederman had filed a friend-of-the-court brief asserting that the “regular forces” cited in the 1903 law were the standing U.S. Army.
His brief prompted the court to ask both sides to explain their view of the disputed provision.
Trump’s lawyers stuck to their position. They said the law referred to the “civilian forces that regularly execute the laws,” not the standing army.
If those civilians cannot enforce the law, “there is a strong tradition in this country of favoring the use” of the National Guard, not the standing military, to quell domestic disturbances, they said.
State attorneys for Illinois said the “regular forces” are the “full-time, professional military.” And they said the president could not “even plausibly argue” that the U.S. Guard members were needed to enforce the law in Chicago.
Politics
Video: Trump Announces Construction of New Warships
new video loaded: Trump Announces Construction of New Warships
transcript
transcript
Trump Announces Construction of New Warships
President Trump announced on Monday the construction of new warships for the U.S. Navy he called a “golden fleet.” Navy officials said the vessels would notionally have the ability to launch hypersonic and nuclear-armed cruise missiles.
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We’re calling it the golden fleet, that we’re building for the United States Navy. As you know, we’re desperately in need of ships. Our ships are, some of them have gotten old and tired and obsolete, and we’re going to go the exact opposite direction. They’ll help maintain American military supremacy, revive the American shipbuilding industry, and inspire fear in America’s enemies all over the world. We want respect.
By Nailah Morgan
December 23, 2025
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