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Why replacing Biden with Newsom or some ‘mythical perfect Democrat’ is unlikely

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Why replacing Biden with Newsom or some ‘mythical perfect Democrat’ is unlikely

Anyone hoping California Gov. Gavin Newsom or some other Democrat will take Joe Biden’s place on the 2024 presidential ballot is likely to be disappointed.

Despite renewed anxiety over the president’s age, party officials and pollsters say swapping him out is a bad idea, and nearly impossible without Biden’s sign-off.

“No one who’s done this at this level thinks that removing the sitting president of the United States, who’s a Democrat, from your ballot is remotely plausible,” said Cornell Belcher, one of former President Obama’s pollsters. “It’s completely absurd.”

A special counsel questioned Biden’s mental acuity last week in a report that explained why criminal charges were not warranted for possession of classified documents, offering fresh fodder to critics of the president and fueling concerns about his ability to serve another four years in office.

Hosts of ABC’s “The View” kindled the conversation on Friday in an on-air debate over Biden’s candidacy and whether Vice President Kamala Harris or Newsom would be better options for the party. Republican Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor and former presidential candidate, and other political pundits have suggested Democrats should trade Biden for another candidate.

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Here are five reasons why Biden — and not Newsom — is all but certain to remain the Democratic presidential nominee:

1) The days of smoke-filled rooms are over

Biden, like most incumbent presidents, is in control of the party, meaning people who work for the Democratic National Committee and other party organs are aligned with his campaign operation. The deadline for challenging him in a Democratic primary has expired in most states, including California, and he faces only scant opposition. He could be replaced if he chose to step aside and free his delegates at the party’s national convention in Chicago this August, the type of scenario that hasn’t happened in decades.

“I’m sure there are a lot of people who might think of themselves as plan B,” said David Axelrod, Obama’s chief strategist. “But plan A seems to be pretty determined to stay in the race.”

Even under the remote scenario in which Biden pulls out and leaves an open convention, chaos would be more likely than consensus.

“There is this mythology that we’re living in the 1940s and a bunch of party leaders come together and say, ‘That’s our guy,’” Axelrod said. “That’s not the way it works anymore. There would be a number of people who would surface. I rate the odds of that exigency very, very low.”

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Another Democratic operative who has connections to top donors in California and major East Coast hubs said there has been lingering chatter about seeking a replacement since last year, but no serious discussion. Most people recognize the need to move on from the replacement fantasy, said the operative, who requested anonymity to avoid antagonizing party officials.

Belcher said the loudest intraparty talk has been fueled by progressives, the same people he said made a similar argument ahead of Obama’s second term.

But even some of the most liberal in the Democratic Party pushed back on the idea.

R.L. Miller, a DNC delegate from California and founder of Climate Hawks Vote, described the possibility that Biden steps out of the race as “an extraordinarily unlikely scenario” and the odds that the party would tap Newsom to replace him as even more remote.

“You might as well write about the possibility of asteroids crashing out of the sky and wiping out all light west of the Hudson where ‘The View’ is filmed,” Miller said.

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2) The time has passed

Hans Noel, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University, said if Biden steps down today, Democrats seeking to replace him could scramble to run in the handful of states where primary ballot access deadlines have not passed. The decision to select a replacement would still be kicked to the Democratic National Convention this summer.

Delegates would probably elect Biden on the first ballot. Biden would have to turn it down. Delegates would vote for a replacement on a second ballot and so on until a nominee was chosen.

If Biden announced his plans in advance, replacement candidates would have a little time to campaign. If he decides to turn down the nomination at the convention, it would be even messier.

“All of the people who are delegates now are free to vote for whoever they think is the right candidate,” Noel said of that scenerio.

The process could look similar to the 1968 Democratic National Convention, which was also held in Chicago. Months before the convention, then President Lyndon B. Johnson announced that he would not seek reelection and candidate Robert Kennedy was killed after winning the Democratic primary in California.

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Amid protests, violence and an effort to nominate an actual pig, delegates chose Hubert Humphrey, Johnson’s vice president, as the Democratic nominee.

Biden withdrawing after the convention could trigger an even more uncertain and unprecedented process.

3) Newsom remains on Team Biden, too

“A gazillion percent,” said Sean Clegg, a senior political advisor to Newsom. “If President Biden asks this guy to do anything, he’s going to do it and give everything he has to support the ticket.”

Clegg said Newsom’s camp isn’t discussing the possibility of replacing Biden because it isn’t happening.

That might seem hard to believe from a governor who appears to relish the national spotlight, is actively attempting to boost his profile with voters across the country and successfully prodded his Republican rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, to debate him on Fox News late last year.

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At an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco in November, Biden commended Newsom’s performance as governor and, perhaps inadvertently, stoked the speculation.

“Matter of fact, he could be anything he wants,” Biden joked. “He could have the job I’m looking for.”

Newsom, who repeatedly denies having presidential ambitions, has been careful to answer questions about his candidacy with praise for Biden.

“I’ll go to the ends of the earth for this guy,” Newsom said in an MSNBC interview.

4) What about the sitting vice president?

Among Democratic politicians, Miller mentioned Harris, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Newsom as people she would expect to try out for the job if Biden suffered a serious health problem.

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“Of the four names I mentioned, I would put Newsom dead last,” she said.

Harris, she said, is best positioned for the job as Biden’s vice president. Whitmer and Pritzker would have a shot at winning swing states.

Harris has her own problems, though. Only 40% of voters view her favorably, compared with 55% who hold a negative view, according to the Los Angeles Times polling tracker. That’s roughly the same as Biden’s polling average.

Her first campaign for president in 2020 flamed out before the primaries and she’s been targeted relentlessly by conservatives, who have tried to cast her as a dangerous heir apparent if Biden drops out or falters during a second term.

5) Newsom symbolizes California liberalism

A recent Los Angeles Times-Leger poll found 50% of American adults — including 30% of Democrats — believe the state is too liberal. The poll found sharp differences between how Californians and people outside the state view issues such as climate, race and gender. Nearly half of Californians say abortion should be legal in all cases, compared with a quarter of adults nationwide.

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The same poll found Newsom was viewed positively by about a third of Americans, negatively by another third and and unknown by everyone else. Those numbers are decent in a sharply polarized environment. But any Democrat who became the nominee would have to withstand a new onslaught of criticism.

“If you put up a choice of Joe Biden against some mythical perfect Democrat, the mythical perfect Democrat wins,” said one operative with ties to the DNC. “But there’s no actual Democrat that voters can agree on as an alternative.”

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Graham pushes back on Tillis’ criticism of Noem, Miller for labeling man killed by Border Patrol a ‘terrorist’

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Graham pushes back on Tillis’ criticism of Noem, Miller for labeling man killed by Border Patrol a ‘terrorist’

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Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., on Tuesday defended Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller after Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., criticized the pair for labeling the U.S. citizen killed by Border Patrol agents in Minneapolis as a “domestic terrorist.”

Tillis was the first Senate Republican to call for Noem to be fired after the killing of Alex Pretti, 37, who was shot by federal agents as he was recording immigration enforcement operations in Minneapolis over the weekend.

“What she’s done in Minnesota should be disqualifying. She should be out of a job,” Tillis told reporters earlier on Tuesday. “It’s just amateur-ish. It’s terrible. It’s making the president look bad on policy that he won on. [President Donald Trump] won on a strong message on immigration. Now, nobody’s talking about that. … They’re talking about the incompetence of the leader of Homeland Security.”

Noem and Miller “told the president before they even had an incident report whatsoever that the person who died was a terrorist. That is amateur hour at its worst,” Tillis added.

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SENATE GOP CRITICS SAY NOEM ‘NEEDS TO GO’ AMID FALLOUT FROM MINNEAPOLIS SHOOTINGS

Sen. Lindsey Graham defended Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller on Tuesday. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

Responding to Tillis, Graham said someone “must have a very high opinion of themselves” if they believe they can get President Donald Trump to distance himself from Miller.

“I’ve known Stephen Miller for a very long time. We have our differences, but we have more in common. When the clock strikes midnight for President Trump, there will be very few by his side. One will be Stephen Miller. If you don’t get that, you’ve missed a lot. No one has helped Trump more than Stephen Miller,” Graham told Fox News’ Chad Pergram.

“To convince yourself that you can get Trump to distance himself from Stephen Miller, you must have a very high opinion of themselves,” he continued.

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The South Carolina lawmaker added: “To my Republican colleagues, you need to understand that the President’s confidence in Stephen Miller has been rock solid and unshakable. And Miller is part of that group.”

Sen. Thom Tillis was the first Senate Republican to call for DHS Secretary Kristi Noem to be fired after the killing of Alex Pretti. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Alex Pretti, 37, was shot and killed on Saturday by Border Patrol agents while recording federal immigration operations in Minneapolis. An ICU nurse, Pretti appeared to be attempting to attend to a woman agents knocked down when he was sprayed with an irritant, pushed to the ground and beaten. An agent was seen pulling Pretti’s lawfully owned gun from his waistband before other agents fired several shots and killed him.

Noem was quick to label Pretti a “domestic terrorist,” and Miller characterized him as things such as a “would-be assassin,” both of which are unsubstantiated claims that sparked bipartisan pushback.

The White House has sought to distance itself from the comments by Noem and Miller, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt saying she has “not heard the president characterize” Pretti that way.

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But despite calls from Democrat and Republican lawmakers to oust Noem over her response to Pretti’s killing, Trump expressed confidence in the secretary to continue leading DHS.

NY POST, WSJ, NY TIMES AND WASHINGTON POST ALIGN AGAINST TRUMP ADMIN OVER ICE OPERATION IN MINNEAPOLIS

President Donald Trump expressed confidence in DHS Secretary Kristi Noem to continue leading the department. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

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“I think she’s doing a very good job. The border is totally secure. You know, you forget we had a border that I inherited where millions of people were coming through. Now we have a border where no one is coming through. They come into our country only legally,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday.

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Asked if he agreed with Noem and Miller labeling Pretti as a “domestic terrorist” and an “assassin,” the president said he had not heard those remarks.

“Well, I haven’t heard that. He shouldn’t have been carrying a gun,” Trump said.

Trump also said the shooting was a “very sad situation” and he wants a “very honorable and honest investigation” that he wants to see for himself.

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Charter Reform Commission, L.A. City Council look to impose transparency rules

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Charter Reform Commission, L.A. City Council look to impose transparency rules

The Los Angeles City Council voted Tuesday to approve a law aimed at boosting transparency at the Charter Reform Commission, by requiring that members of that panel disclose any private talks they have with the city’s elected officials.

The vote comes about two months before the commission, which began its work in July, is scheduled to finish its deliberations and deliver a list of recommendations to the council.

Councilmember Monica Rodriguez, who proposed the ordinance, said she has been trying since August to pass a measure requiring the disclosure of such private conversations, known as “ex parte” communications. That effort was greeted with “nearly six months of stonewalling,” she said.

“While this is an important victory for oversight and transparency, government accountability shouldn’t be this hard to secure,” she said.

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The ordinance, which also applies to communications between commissioners and elected officials’ staff, is expected to go into effect in about a month. Meanwhile, the 13-member Charter Reform Commission approved its own policy a week ago requiring the disclosure of private conversations between its members and city elected officials.

Some government watchdogs say the disclosures are needed to prevent council members and other city elected officials from seeking to dictate the details of the recommendations that are ultimately issued by the commission. The volunteer citizens panel is currently looking at such ideas as increasing the size of the council and potentially changing the duties of citywide elected officials.

“If the public is going to trust the outcomes of our charter reform process, it has to be transparent and credible,” Commissioner Carla Fuentes, who pushed for the new disclosure policy at its Jan. 21 meeting.

The commission has not yet voted on a proposal to also require disclosure of communications with elected officials’ staff.

It is also looking at the idea of adopting ranked choice voting, where voters list all of the candidates in order of preference, and switching the city to a multi-year budget process.

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Councilmember Bob Blumenfield raised warnings about the council’s vote on Tuesday, saying charter reform is substantively different from the 2021 redistricting process. Council members should be engaging in conversations with its volunteer commissioners, to help them better understand how the city is run, Blumenfield said.

Those communications will ensure the commissioners make an informed decision what to recommend for the ballot later this year.

“I don’t want this message to be that it’s somehow bad for council members and the mayor and elected officials to be engaging in this process,” he said. “To the contrary, I think we need to double down our engagement. We need to speak to those commissioners. They need to learn a lot more about how this city really works for this thing to be effective.”

The commission is scheduled to take up the motion to disclose staffer conversations at its next meeting on Feb. 7.

Rob Quan, an organizer with the group Unrig LA, said he doesn’t want to see a repeat of 2021, when members of the citizens commission on redistricting were regularly contacted by council members’ aides. Those ex parte communications were not disclosed, he said.

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“If it didn’t apply to staff, we would simply be reinforcing the power of the staff, which have from Day One been the most problematic aspect of this commission,” said Quan, whose group focuses on government oversight.

He and a group of other transparency activists have proposed a total ban on ex parte communication, which hasn’t been considered by the current commission.

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Democrats demand Kristi Noem be fired or warn impeachment will follow

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Democrats demand Kristi Noem be fired or warn impeachment will follow

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House Democrats ramped up pressure on Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem on Tuesday, calling for her firing and warning that impeachment proceedings would follow if she remains in office, citing deadly actions by federal agents in Minnesota.

The calls came from both House Democratic leadership and Judiciary Committee Democrats, marking a coordinated escalation from public condemnation to formal impeachment threats.

In a joint statement, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democratic Whip Katherine Clark and Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar accused the Trump administration of using federal law enforcement to carry out deadly violence.

“Taxpayer dollars are being weaponized by the Trump administration to kill American citizens, brutalize communities and violently target law-abiding immigrant families,” the leaders said. “The country is disgusted by what the Department of Homeland Security has done.”

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NOEM SAYS SHE GRIEVES FOR FAMILY AFTER CBP-RELATED SHOOTING IN MINNEAPOLIS, VOWS THOROUGH INVESTIGATION

House Democrats ramped up pressure on DHS Secretary Kristi Noem on Tuesday. ( Al Drago/Getty Images)

The leaders warned that unless Noem is removed, impeachment proceedings would follow.

“Kristi Noem should be fired immediately, or we will commence impeachment proceedings in the House of Representatives,” the statement said.

“We can do this the easy way or the hard way.”

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The demands come as Noem faces widespread criticism after federal agents killed two U.S. citizens in Minnesota this month.

Separately, Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, the ranking Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, called on Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, to immediately begin impeachment proceedings if Noem is not fired or forced to resign.

“Unless Secretary Noem resigns or is fired, the Judiciary Committee’s Chairman, Jim Jordan, should immediately commence House Judiciary Committee impeachment proceedings to remove her from office,” Raskin said.

BORDER PATROL COMMANDER GREGORY BOVINO TO LEAVE MINNESOTA, AS TOM HOMAN TAKES OVER

Federal agents try to clear demonstrators near a hotel, using tear gas during a noise demonstration protest in response to federal immigration enforcement operations in Minneapolis. (Adam Gray/AP Photo)

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Raskin accused Noem of overseeing what he described as unlawful killings and a subsequent cover-up.

“Far from condemning these unlawful and savage killings in cold blood, Secretary Noem immediately labeled Renée Good and Alex Pretti ‘domestic terrorists,’ blatantly lied about the circumstances of the shootings that took their lives, and attempted to cover up and blockade any legitimate investigation into their deaths,” he said.

Separately, Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., called on Trump to fire Noem directly on Tuesday.

In a post on X, the senator accused Noem of “betraying” the department’s central mission.

In a joint statement with other Democratic leaders, Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., accused the Trump administration of using federal law enforcement to carry out deadly violence. (Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)

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However, President Donald Trump confirmed on Tuesday that he has no plans to ask Noem to step down from her role.

Trump was asked about Noem’s status during a gaggle with reporters outside the White House. He told the press that he still thinks Noem is doing a “great job.”

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“Is Kristi Noem going to step down?” a reporter asked.

“No,” Trump responded bluntly.

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He later said he believes she is doing a “very good job,” citing her role in closing down the border.

Fox News’ Anders Hagstrom contributed to this report.

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