Politics
Who needs Trump or Harris? In hotly contested states, it was time for football
PHILADELPHIA and GREEN BAY, WIS. — A bird beak perched on his nose, a Philadelphia Eagles’ fan expressed his disdain for the day’s opponent by dragging a Jacksonville Jaguars helmet on the ground by a leash.
Nearly 1,000 miles northwest, green and yellow Green Bay Packers flags punctured the otherwise dreary, rainy gray skies, as the Wisconsin faithful replaced their trademark cheesehead hats with ponchos and tried to stay dry under pop-up tents before their contest with the Detroit Lions.
On Sunday, two days before the election, in two of the nation’s most closely divided states that will determine control of the White House, football took center stage for fans who also happen to be voters.
Over cheesesteaks and Yuengling beer in Philadelphia and an inordinate variety of sausages and Miller Lite cans in Green Bay, fans were trying to put their election anxiety on hold for a few hours of tailgating and four quarters of football.
Watching the game in person meant they could escape the nonstop attack ads that have blanketed battleground states for months with increasing intensity ahead of election day on Tuesday.
“I stopped watching TV, and it’s almost impossible to listen to the radio, because you want to try to try to get a moment of peace, and you just can’t get it,” said Tim Ellsworth, 63, who lives in a suburb of Green Bay and was tailgating across from Lambeau Field.
The retiree, who previously ran paper mills, is a supporter of former President Trump, but he’s sick of the politicking by politicians on both sides of the aisle.
“It’s just who can lie more? You can’t believe any of it from either side. It’s just pathetic on either side,” he said.
A friend and fellow Packers-Trump fan whom he had been tailgating with since 10 a.m. unsteadily waved a bottle of beer and showed off rounds of spent shotgun shells to a reporter before asking Ellsworth what Trump had lied about.
“It’s all the way through,” Ellsworth replied. “All the way. At the Senate level, down to the local, state levels. They’re lying. So I just look forward to Tuesday.”
Dave Schofield, who wore the Eagle beak on his nose outside Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, said he is anxious that Trump is blowing the election because “he can’t keep his mouth shut.”
“Some of the things he says, it’s all right to say it at a bar with your buddies, but you don’t say that stuff out loud,” said Schofield, a 63-year-old chemical salesman.
But Schofield and his friends weren’t stewing or scanning the latest polling averages on Sunday.
“Everybody’s worried more about the game today,” said his friend Everett Terry, a 65-year-old police officer who posted a “Trump Safety/Kamala Crime” placard on his truck. On Monday, he said, they can get wound up about politics again, then wait like everyone else for Tuesday’s results.
Despite the country’s political polarization, many people in these tailgate groups weren’t even sure who their football friends were supporting.
“We’re here to talk about the Eagles,” said Mike Warren, a 67–year old supporter of Vice President Kamala Harris in the same tailgate group as Schofield and Terry.
Warren was more eager to show off the green illustrations on the van he bought this year with his brother, with images of LeSean McCoy and other Eagles legends making spectacular catches.
But underneath, Warren is also scared.
Trump “will go against whatever the rules say that he should do,” said Warren, who works in human resources. “The majority says one thing, he disagrees. He finds a way to get around it. That’s what scares me.”
Steve Rostloch, a 41-year-old carpet installer from Mequon near Milwaukee, is a Harris supporter and said he expected to her to win.
“She’s a woman. Women always win,” he said. “I ain’t voting for that idiot.”
But if Eagle and Packers fans shared anything, it’s the recognition that Trump and Harris remain neck and neck.
“I’m hoping Trump wins, but I don’t know. This is tough to say. I mean, it seems like it’s very close in so many places,” Cyle Wanek, 42, said outside Lambeau Field.
Wanek grew up so close to Lambeau that he could hear the crowds roaring as a child. His dad entered the family into the season-ticket lottery more than two decades ago. They finally got their season tickets last year.
Grilling cheddar wieners from Konop Meats near Stangelville — “Go there for meat!” Wanek advised — the aluminum foundry worker said he predicted the Packers would win by 20 but was uncertain who is going to prevail on Tuesday. (His prediction would prove as suspect as some polls.)
Camaraderie among fans of rival teams was also on display Sunday, though with a sharp dose of ribbing.
Mike Kleczka, 60, and his wife, Debbie, a nurse, grew up in Wisconsin. They live in Kansas, but said it was nice to take their mind of politics for a few hours as they tailgated with their daughter Rachel and her husband before the game.
“It is, because we’ll be back at it tomorrow, right?” Kleczka, a direct marketer, said.
While the family largely agrees on politics, the bigger rift is sports. Rachel, 23, married Josh Forgie, 26, a Michigan native who was wearing a blue Lions jersey in the sea of Packer green and yellow. They have had some interesting conversations around the dinner table, they chuckled.
“The Lions have kind of been easy to make fun of,” Kleczka said.
Forgie smiled as he shot back, “The five games we played you guys? We won.”
(This was a few hours before the Lions once again beat the Packers 24-14.)
In Philadelphia and Green Bay, overt political displays were rare, though
Tim Biegalski, a 26-year-old contractor from King of Prussia, Pa., wore the closest thing to a political jersey, a green shirt with a “Hurts/Barkley ’24” logo. For the uninitiated, that’s the team’s quarterback and running back, Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley.
He’s voting for Trump, after supporting President Biden four years ago and Trump in 2016, but calls this year’s election “a no-win situation.”
Biegalski hopes Trump wins. But unlike most fans asked whether they would prefer a White House or a Super Bowl victory, Biegalski said if he had to choose — in a city so passionate about sports that it was home to the first NFL stadium to have a jail built into in its bowels — he’d rather have another Eagles championship.
“Super Bowl all day,” he said. “That will bring more joy than the election.”
Bierman reported from Philadelphia, Mehta from Green Bay.
Politics
Trump camp confident based on early voting, while Black leaders say Harris is struggling
At a time when we’re all deluged with conflicting polls and statistical ties, Donald Trump’s campaign is unusually confident.
The Kamala Harris operation also sees reason for optimism, with news that late deciders are breaking her way by more than 10%. But she still casts herself as the underdog. Her “SNL” appearance doesn’t change that; nor does Trump saying that RFK’s plan to remove fluoride from the water, a major public health advance, “sounds okay to me.”
Most media folks, either publicly or privately, believe Trump will win, even as the anti-Trumpers beg their followers to turn out for the VP – such as MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace asking her ex-boss George W. Bush to publicly back Harris.
The climax of the campaign seems built around a gaping gender gap–with Kamala doing far better among women and Trump much better among men.
THE ‘GARBAGE’ CAMPAIGN: WHY MISTAKES AND DISTRACTIONS COULD TILT THE OUTCOME
The view from the Trump camp is that registration figures favor Republicans, based on mail-in voting, in the battleground states that will decide the race. Nearly half the country has already voted.
Take the crucial commonwealth of Pennsylvania. In 2020, Democrats had a 7.5% advantage, and that’s now shrunk to a 3-point edge.
What’s more, just 39% of Democrats who have voted there so far are men, compared to 49% among Republicans.
Democratic strategist Tom Bonier, who appears on MSNBC, says the Pennsylvania electorate is much more Republican, and much more male, than last time.
Harris needs a huge turnout in Philadelphia to carry the state, and numerous news reports say she’s still struggling to win over some Black men.
In Wisconsin, the view from Trump World is that in-person voting (which tends to favor the former president) is outnumbering mail ballots (which lean Democratic). Trump’s strength is among male, white and rural voters. So, as in the case of Philly, Harris must do very well in Milwaukee and Madison to carry the state.
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Michigan, which Rep. Debbie Dingell recently told me is a toss-up, remains an enigma, because it doesn’t track party registration. So the ballgame there may turn on how well Harris does in Detroit.
The Trump camp sees similar advantages in such swing states as Georgia and North Carolina, where public polling is close but would be a bigger stretch for a Harris win. The election really turns on the three Blue Wall states.
Maybe Harris should have picked Josh Shapiro?
In one key state after another, local Black leaders are quoted on the record as saying they’re worried about warning signs in their community:
Politico: “The city of Milwaukee is trailing the rest of the state by about 7 percent both in its mail-in return rate and in overall registered voter turnout. It’s a warning sign, even some Democrats privately say, for Harris as her campaign looks to run up the score with urban and suburban voters to overcome Wisconsin’s rural counties.”
Capital B, Atlanta: The turnout of Black voters in Georgia “has dropped from more than 29 percent” on the first day of early voting “to about 25 percent…That’s the bad news for Harris…
TRUMP IS ‘SURGING’ WHILE KAMALA HARRIS IS ‘COLLAPSING’: CLAY TRAVIS
“Elected leaders and political observers say Democrats looking for a guaranteed win in statewide office races in Georgia usually need to hit a 30 percent Black turnout rate.”
Charlotte Observer: “As of Wednesday, Black voters had cast 207,000 fewer ballots compared with four years ago — a drop of almost 40 percent.”
“I am worried about turnout in Detroit. I think it’s real,” said Jamal Simmons, a former Harris aide, told ABC.
A sunnier view is offered by this Politico piece, which says that public polls appear to be undercounting Harris’ support.
The story says that “shy Trump voters” – who don’t want to tell pollsters who they’re supporting–are a thing of the past, given the aggressive nature of his campaign.
Instead, many “forgotten” Harris voters are missed by the polls, especially Republicans frustrated with their own party: Nikki Haley voters.
SUBSCRIBE TO HOWIE’S MEDIA BUZZMETER PODCAST, A RIFF ON THE DAY’S HOTTEST STORIES
Citing a national survey, Politico says 66% of those voting for Haley in the primaries backed Trump in 2016, dropping to 59% four years ago and an estimated 45% this time. “Meanwhile, their support for the Democratic presidential nominee has nearly tripled from only 13 percent supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 36 percent indicating an intent to vote for Kamala Harris.”
To which I say: Who the hell knows?
We’re at the point now before tomorrow’s election that pollsters are analyzing the polls to figure out which ones are off. And–here comes the cliché – it all depends on turnout. Despite raising a billion bucks, if some of Harris’ potential supporters stay home, that sinks her candidacy.
The scenarios favored by the Trump team rest largely on party registration, not polls that have missed the mark in the last two cycles.
That explains why the former president is more confident, even as he asks his advisers whether they really believe he’s going to win.
Politics
Editorial: Election results may take time. That's a fact, not grounds for conspiracy theories
Election day is almost here, and the end of this tumultuous campaign season cannot come soon enough. But it may not come Tuesday night.
Given that the race for president is expected to be close, it’s quite possible that Americans will have to wait days to learn whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Trump will be the next commander in chief. Vote counting may take a while, and — despite what bad-faith actors might suggest — that’s OK. A healthy democracy can afford to be meticulous in counting every vote and patient in waiting for accurate results.
In 2020, Trump cynically and dangerously claimed that legitimate delays to count a record number of mailed ballots were evidence of fraud and asserted that Democrats were “trying to steal the election.” Trump’s lies were debunked and rejected by judges in numerous court cases, but his misinformation campaign persuaded thousands of people to show up to his “Stop the Steal” rally on Jan. 6, 2021, and storm the Capitol in an effort to prevent Congress from certifying the election results.
This year, election officials (both Republicans and Democrats among them) have been trying to reset expectations of how quickly votes can be counted in an attempt to tamp down conspiracy theories.
Here are the facts:
- More states, including California, have expanded the use of mail-in ballots and ballot drop boxes, which are more convenient for voters. These ballots take longer to count because election personnel verify signatures on ballot envelopes against state records.
- States have different rules that may affect the speed of their counts. Pennsylvania, for example, does not allow election workers to begin processing mail ballots until election day. North Carolina is requiring a photo ID to vote this year, which is expected to increase the number of provisional ballots that have to be researched to determine eligibility, which takes time.
- In 2020, Trump made the absurd and laughably ignorant assertion that ballots counted after election day aren’t legitimate. Election officials do not — and should not — stop tallying votes after 11:59 p.m. on Tuesday. That would be impractical and unfair. And no election has ever been certified on election day.
- Some politicians, pundits and even media outlets may choose to “call” a race based on early returns, but that’s often irresponsible. The results can shift as ballots are counted. In the 2018 midterm election, early returns had Republican candidates leading in some key California congressional races. That turned out to be a “red mirage”: When all the ballots were counted, Democrats won the seats and control of the House. At the time, some Republicans suggested that the reversal of fortune was an indication of some type of election misconduct. It wasn’t. Election officials were simply doing their jobs and ensuring that every vote was counted.
This is a politically fraught moment. Foreign powers and opportunists have already been spreading disinformation to undermine confidence in the election. Last week, U.S. intelligence agencies blamed Russia for a viral video purporting to show a Haitian immigrant with multiple Georgia IDs claiming to have voted multiple times. Russia is also allegedly responsible for a fake video that purports to show someone destroying ballots marked for Trump in Pennsylvania.
That’s why it’s so important to rely on facts, verifiable information and reliable sources such as the National Assn. of Secretaries of State, whose members run elections, and to be a discerning consumer of social media, where so many false claims circulate.
This year’s election will test Americans and our democratic institutions. Let’s do everything possible to ensure we pass.
Politics
How Red and Blue America Shop, Eat and Live
There are thousands of golf courses in the United States. You can find them in every state, in nearly every county; there’s probably one near you.
Take all those data points, and you can see that there are more golf courses for every 100,000 voters in redder neighborhoods than in blue ones.
There are also thousands of breweries in the U.S., but they’re much more concentrated on the coasts and in urban areas.
The brewery-to-voter ratio is much higher in some of the country’s bluest precincts, where Joe Biden won the vote in 2020.
You can’t tell how people vote just by whether they enjoy a drink at a brewery or a round of golf. But the geographic distribution of these two places shows how much our surroundings differ, often unintentionally, along political lines.
It’s not just golf and brewing: People in America’s reddest neighborhoods see a different landscape of stores, restaurants and venues when they step outside their homes than those in more politically even precincts or the very bluest areas.
We wanted to look at this relationship between politics and the places around us. So, using data from the Overture Maps Foundation, we took the location of millions of different stores, restaurants, churches, parks and more and lined them up with the 2020 election results, down to the precinct.
We don’t know who goes to each place. But we know how the neighborhoods surrounding each locale vote.
The results are sometimes obvious: Yoga studios and cocktail bars skew toward deeply blue spaces, and gun stores and farms toward redder precincts. But they show how our politics, geography and lives intersect, not always in obvious ways.
In many cases, these graphs look the way they do largely because of the urban-rural divide. Certain activities, like golf, need space, and the more rural parts of the country tend to vote for Republicans. Meanwhile, a small, Democratic-leaning urban area might be a commercial hub for a redder county, with a brewery, coffee shop and bookstore; those businesses would look blue in our data set even if they were frequented equally by Republicans and Democrats.
“The placement of businesses is probably motivated primarily by income level and population density,” said Nick Rogers, a sociology professor at the University of Pittsburgh. “It just so happens that an area’s political ideology is highly correlated with these things.”
Some places, of course, are just everywhere:
And some kinds of places don’t fit easily into one bucket or the other.
Consider Baptist churches: A majority of the tens of thousands of these churches in the U.S. are in the South. That means they’re heavily concentrated in both Republican neighborhoods and largely Black, heavily Democratic areas. The resulting distribution looks like this:
Wineries, too, show a double hump. You can see that in California alone — with wine production clustered along both its bluer coastline and the redder Central Valley.
For many brands, the partisan map emerges from the regional footprint of the business. Piggly Wiggly mostly serves redder states in the South, while Food Lion is spread across a more politically varied area in the Southeast.
But the maps cut across people and places in different ways. A liberal voter in Los Angeles may have never heard of Piggly Wiggly. But it’s also possible that person has never heard of Stop & Shop, a supermarket in the bluer Northeast.
Other brands that aren’t so regionally clustered have expanded in pursuit of the clientele they already know. For example, Whole Foods, Peet’s Coffee and the upscale sportswear brand Lululemon have a high-earning urban customer base.
The Overture data in this analysis reflects businesses and places that have logged their locations on either Meta or Microsoft platforms; the data is imperfect and includes mislabeled locations and closed stores. But this is the best publicly available data set of its kind, and it lets us see patterns in the data that aren’t captured by surveys of consumer preference.
Here’s a roundup of them.
Fast food
One fast food chain in many deep blue precincts is Popeyes. The chicken purveyor is found in many Southern cities but also across the West Coast and up and down I-95.
Its competitor Chick-fil-A — despite an early 2010s controversy over gay rights — is also in many blue areas.
Among the chains found in redder places are Tennessee-based Hardee’s and Oklahoma-based Sonic.
And Burger King, like McDonald’s, is everywhere.
Coffee shops
Starbucks is by far the nation’s largest coffee chain, and while it might feel as if it’s everywhere, it hews toward slightly denser locations.
Some smaller coffee chains have a more significant skew. West Coast chains like Blue Bottle and Peet’s Coffee are common in some of the bluest areas; the largest chain in our data with a strong presence in redder areas is Scooter’s Coffee.
Breakfast spots
IHOP neighborhoods are bluer than those around the largely Midwestern restaurant Bob Evans. Huddle House is the major breakfast chain with the highest frequency in red areas in our data.
Convenience stores
7-Eleven started in Texas, but it has since spread across many blue places.
Regional convenience store chains in redder areas include Casey’s General Store and Allsup’s.
Religious institutions
The headquarters of the Mormon Church are in blue Salt Lake City. But it has many temples in rural parts of the Mountain West.
First Congregational Church, on the other hand, is a common name for a church in the United Church of Christ, a socially liberal Protestant denomination common in New England.
First United Methodist churches are in redder areas:
Hindu and Buddhist temples are both typically in more liberal areas.
Professionals
Occupations also have recognizable patterns in our data, probably in large part because of the rural-urban political divide.
Some professions lend themselves to cities:
Others, to the countryside:
And yet others can find business just about anywhere:
Leisure
A lot of the activities we do for fun also map across politics.
Services
Even basic services follow similar patterns. Fire departments skew red because they have to be everywhere, regardless of how many people live there. Even a small, rural area needs a fire department. When you consider population density, you get this:
Elementary schools, meanwhile, are more population dependent.
Train stations, including those with subway stops, tend to be in more urban areas.
And propane suppliers, though everywhere, typically have more business in rural areas, farther from natural gas pipelines.
Taken together, the patterns are a reminder of how big and varied the country is — in its places and its politics.
You can explore the distribution of 100 large coffee chains, grocery stores, shops and other places below.
See More: Political Geography of 100 Large American Businesses
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