Connect with us

Politics

Which Battleground State Voters Could Sway the Election?

Published

on

Which Battleground State Voters Could Sway the Election?

It’s no secret that the political sentiments of Americans follow lines of race and ethnicity, education and age. But what makes presidential elections so competitive is how these demographic groups often balance each other out.

Voters in key states in 2020

In 2024, this delicate equilibrium is key to understanding the seven battleground states where, according to the polls, the presidential race is closest. Last election, several of these states were decided by fewer than 40,000 votes. Since then, together they’ve added about 1.3 million potential voters, and the smallest shifts in sentiment or turnout among certain groups could be enough to alter the outcome of this election.

To better understand the demographic forces at play in the battlegrounds, The New York Times conducted a granular review of the 2020 contest and compared precinct-level results with census data to estimate who cast ballots and how they voted. We examined race and ethnicity, age, education and geography to identify trends and key groups in each state. (Gender is another growing factor in partisanship but was not part of this analysis.)

2020 result: Biden won by 10,000 votes

Advertisement

Key groups: Latino voters, young voters

What to watch President Biden’s winning coalition relied heavily on Latino voters, who made up nearly a quarter of those who voted in 2020, a figure that will likely rise in this election. But while Latino voters in the state have typically favored Democrats, no group is a monolith.

Experts say Latinos have weaker party attachment than other nonwhite groups and could be persuaded to change their votes. Moreover, a significant share of this group is made up of U.S.-born, young Latinos who will vote for the first time, and their sentiment is less predictable. Recent surveys have shown former President Donald J. Trump making inroads with young people and voters of color.

Mr. Trump’s biggest support in 2020 came from white voters aged 35 and older. This group accounted for half of the ballots cast, due in part to the outsize number of white retirees in the state.

For Democrats, there are potentially more votes to gain. In 2020, there were more ballots cast for the Democratic Senate candidate than for Mr. Biden. “Those voters who voted for Mark Kelly but decided not to vote for Biden or Trump could have decided the outcome of the race,” said Samara Klara, a political science professor at the University of Arizona.

Advertisement

2020 result: Biden won by 12,000 votes

Key groups: Black voters, white voters with a college degree

What to watch Democrats in Georgia have long been guided by the “30/30 rule,” a term made popular by the University of Georgia political scientist Charles S. Bullock III. It says that in order for Democrats to win, Black voters must make up 30 percent of all voters and at least 30 percent of white voters must vote Democratic.

Black voters, who cast nearly a third of the ballots in 2020, overwhelmingly favored Mr. Biden — by almost 90 percent. But that reliable base of support appeared to be slipping earlier this year, and it’s a group that experts say Vice President Kamala Harris must energize and excite. About 850,000 Black Georgia residents did not vote in 2020.

“If you have anemic turnout among Black voters, that will spell doom for the Democratic ticket,” said Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University.

Advertisement

Georgia voters, by race and education

Both parties will also be looking to appeal to a growing share of white voters with a bachelor’s degree, a group whose votes were split nearly evenly between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump in 2020.

2020 result: Biden won by 154,000 votes

Key groups: Suburban voters, Black voters, Arab American voters

What to watch In 2020, Mr. Biden won Michigan handily — at least by the standards of a battleground state.

Advertisement

But Mr. Trump performed very well with white residents in suburban and rural communities, who made up nearly two-thirds of the voters in the 2020 election.

Michigan voters by geography

Democrats’ strong performance among nonwhite voters and in the suburbs of Detroit helped erase Republicans’ advantage in the suburbs around smaller cities in 2020. But even though Black voters overwhelmingly supported Mr. Biden, they were a relatively small group — just 14 percent of those who cast ballots. And experts say that Black support for Democrats could be waning in Michigan.

“There’s definitely an attitude that they aren’t represented, in comparison to their population and their outsize role in the Democratic party,” said Matt Grossmann, a political science professor at Michigan State University. He pointed to Detroit, a majority-Black city that does not have any Black representation in Congress. “The feeling is, how much attention are you paying to us? And how much are you taking us for granted?”

Disillusionment among the estimated 3 percent of Michigan voters who are Muslim and Arab American — a traditionally strong Democratic constituency — could also make a difference this year. Many of these voters have voiced their anger and frustration with the Biden administration’s support for Israel in the war in Gaza, and some have said they may choose to sit out this election or cast ballots in favor of a third-party candidate.

Advertisement

2020 result: Biden won by 34,000 votes

Key groups: Nonwhite voters, voters without a college degree

What to watch Nationally, education is a major political fault line, with college-educated voters far more likely to support the Democratic Party and less-educated voters favoring Republicans. But Nevada is the major exception to this rule: Democrats have won there in the past four elections, despite the state having a relatively low share of college-educated voters.

That’s because educational attainment divides mostly white voters, and many of Nevada’s less-educated voters are not white. Mr. Biden won half of the vote among voters without a four-year degree in Nevada, atypical for the nation as a whole.

Nevada voters by race and education

Advertisement

Over the last several years, inflation has hurt working-class voters, and concerns about the economy could make it easier for the Trump campaign to eat into the Democratic advantage with blue-collar voters of color.

“Nevada is a little bit of a different animal,” said David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, pointing to the state’s low voter turnout, high diversity and more transient population. “This all means that there are a lot of potential untapped voters that could be mobilized.”

2020 result: Trump won by 74,000 votes

Key groups: Rural voters, suburban voters

What to watch In 2020, North Carolina gave Mr. Trump the narrowest lead of any state he won. Voters in rural areas, who accounted for nearly a fifth of the total, helped deliver Mr. Trump his victory.

Advertisement

North Carolina voters by geography

But North Carolina also has many small cities with a strong partisan divide between city-dwellers, who favor Democrats, and suburbanites, who favor Republicans.

For Democrats to flip the state, they must lose fewer votes in rural areas and increase voter turnout in smaller cities, like Greensboro and Asheville, said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University.

“If we see a marginal movement away from Trump in rural areas, that’s really important,” he said. “The map will still show these places as red, but those differences can be the difference between winning and losing.”

2020 result: Biden won by 82,000 votes

Advertisement

Key groups: Voters without a four-year college degree, suburban voters

What to watch As it does in other states, education plays a big role in the partisan divide in Pennsylvania. White voters without a bachelor’s degree made up nearly half the total, and they favored Mr. Trump three to one in 2020. Even so, that wasn’t enough for him to overcome the coalition of white voters with a college degree and voters of color who delivered Mr. Biden a victory.

The other big factor is geography.

Pennsylvania voters by geography

Mr. Trump dominated the state’s rural areas and small towns, as well as the Pittsburgh suburbs. But Mr. Biden had a strong showing in Pennsylvania’s cities and in the Philadelphia suburbs, areas that accounted for more than 40 percent of the votes in 2020.

Advertisement

2020 result: Biden won by 21,000 votes

Key groups: Rural voters, young voters

Wisconsin saw a similar geographic divide among voters. The bulk of Mr. Trump’s support came from the state’s more than 1,000 small towns and the outer suburbs of Milwaukee.

But the fastest-growing part of the state is an area that increasingly favors Democrats: the suburbs of Madison, home to the main campus of the University of Wisconsin.

Wisconsin voters by geography

Advertisement

In 2020, turnout in Dane County, which includes Madison, was 89 percent.

“It is among the highest turnout counties in the country,” said Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Law School Poll. “The question for Democrats here is, is it even possible to squeeze more votes out of Dane County?”

Politics

Democrats demand Kristi Noem be fired or warn impeachment will follow

Published

on

Democrats demand Kristi Noem be fired or warn impeachment will follow

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

House Democrats ramped up pressure on Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem on Tuesday, calling for her firing and warning that impeachment proceedings would follow if she remains in office, citing deadly actions by federal agents in Minnesota.

The calls came from both House Democratic leadership and Judiciary Committee Democrats, marking a coordinated escalation from public condemnation to formal impeachment threats.

In a joint statement, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democratic Whip Katherine Clark and Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar accused the Trump administration of using federal law enforcement to carry out deadly violence.

“Taxpayer dollars are being weaponized by the Trump administration to kill American citizens, brutalize communities and violently target law-abiding immigrant families,” the leaders said. “The country is disgusted by what the Department of Homeland Security has done.”

Advertisement

NOEM SAYS SHE GRIEVES FOR FAMILY AFTER CBP-RELATED SHOOTING IN MINNEAPOLIS, VOWS THOROUGH INVESTIGATION

House Democrats ramped up pressure on DHS Secretary Kristi Noem on Tuesday. ( Al Drago/Getty Images)

The leaders warned that unless Noem is removed, impeachment proceedings would follow.

“Kristi Noem should be fired immediately, or we will commence impeachment proceedings in the House of Representatives,” the statement said.

“We can do this the easy way or the hard way.”

Advertisement

The demands come as Noem faces widespread criticism after federal agents killed two U.S. citizens in Minnesota this month.

Separately, Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, the ranking Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, called on Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, to immediately begin impeachment proceedings if Noem is not fired or forced to resign.

“Unless Secretary Noem resigns or is fired, the Judiciary Committee’s Chairman, Jim Jordan, should immediately commence House Judiciary Committee impeachment proceedings to remove her from office,” Raskin said.

BORDER PATROL COMMANDER GREGORY BOVINO TO LEAVE MINNESOTA, AS TOM HOMAN TAKES OVER

Federal agents try to clear demonstrators near a hotel, using tear gas during a noise demonstration protest in response to federal immigration enforcement operations in Minneapolis. (Adam Gray/AP Photo)

Advertisement

Raskin accused Noem of overseeing what he described as unlawful killings and a subsequent cover-up.

“Far from condemning these unlawful and savage killings in cold blood, Secretary Noem immediately labeled Renée Good and Alex Pretti ‘domestic terrorists,’ blatantly lied about the circumstances of the shootings that took their lives, and attempted to cover up and blockade any legitimate investigation into their deaths,” he said.

Separately, Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., called on Trump to fire Noem directly on Tuesday.

In a post on X, the senator accused Noem of “betraying” the department’s central mission.

In a joint statement with other Democratic leaders, Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., accused the Trump administration of using federal law enforcement to carry out deadly violence. (Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)

Advertisement

However, President Donald Trump confirmed on Tuesday that he has no plans to ask Noem to step down from her role.

Trump was asked about Noem’s status during a gaggle with reporters outside the White House. He told the press that he still thinks Noem is doing a “great job.”

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

“Is Kristi Noem going to step down?” a reporter asked.

“No,” Trump responded bluntly.

Advertisement

He later said he believes she is doing a “very good job,” citing her role in closing down the border.

Fox News’ Anders Hagstrom contributed to this report.

Continue Reading

Politics

Trump signs executive order to ‘preempt’ permitting process for fire-destroyed homes in L.A.

Published

on

Trump signs executive order to ‘preempt’ permitting process for fire-destroyed homes in L.A.

President Trump has announced an executive order to allow victims of the Los Angeles wildfires to rebuild without dealing with “unnecessary, dupicative, or obstructive” permitting requirements.

The order, which is likely to be challenged by the city and state, claimed that local governments have failed to adequately process permits and were slowing down residents who are desperate to rebuild in the Palisades and Altadena.

“American families and small businesses affected by the wildfires have been forced to continue living in a nightmare of delay, uncertainty, and bureaucratic malaise as they remain displaced from their homes, often without a source of income, while state and local governments delay or prevent reconstruction by approving only a fraction of the permits needed to rebuild,” Trump wrote in the executive order, which he signed Friday.

The order called on the Secretary of Homeland Security and the Federal Emergency Management Agency to “preempt” state and local permitting authorities.

Advertisement

Instead of going through the usual approval process, residents using federal emergency funds to rebuild would need to self-certify to federal authorities that they have complied with local health and safety standards.

The order comes as the city and county approach 3,000 permits issued for rebuilding. A December review by The Times found that the permitting process in Altadena and Pacific Palisades was moving at a moderate rate compared to other major fires in California. As of Dec. 14, the county had issued rebuilding permits for about 16% of the homes destroyed in the Eaton fire and the city had issued just under 14% for those destroyed in the Palisades fire.

While Mayor Karen Bass did not immediately provide comment, the executive order drew intense pushback from Gov. Gavin Newsom.

A spokesperson for Newsom, Tara Gallegos, called Trump a “clueless idiot” for believing the federal government could issue local rebuilding permits.

“With 1625+ home permits issued, hundreds of homes under construction, and permitting timelines at least 2x faster than before the fires, an executive order to rebuild Mars would do just as useful,” Gov. Gavin Newsom wrote in a post on X, citing the number of permits issued solely by the city of Los Angeles.

Advertisement

Newsom said that the federal government needed to release funding, not take over control of the permitting process. The governor said that what communities really lack is money, not permits.

“Please actually help us. We are begging you,” Newsom wrote.

Instead of descending into the permitting process, Newsom called on the president to send a recovery package to congress to help families rebuild, citing a letter from a bipartisan delegation of California legislators that called for federal funding.

“As the recovery process continues, additional federal support is needed, and our entire delegation looks forward to working cooperatively with your administration to ensure the communities of Southern California receive their fair share of federal disaster assistance,” wrote the California legislators on Jan 7.

Los Angeles City Councilwoman Traci Park, who represents Pacific Palisades, responded in a statement that read: “If the federal government is interested in expediting recovery from the most expensive disaster in this country’s history, they can start by committing to real financial support — to close insurance gaps, to repair critical infrastructure damaged in both the fire and the debris removal process, to help this region rebuild two entire communities from the ground up.”

Advertisement

Park also said that “dangling SBA loans and hazard mitigation funding in front of victims while summarily denying FEMA claim and other support to municipalities behind the scenes is subterfuge, not support. The City can only approve permits that have been submitted and the reality is that many disaster victims are still not ready to move forward with their rebuilds. This federal government can fix that by allowing desperately needed financial assistance to flow down to the Los Angeles region and let us get to work.”

Los Angeles County Supervisor Kathryn Barger, who represents Altadena, said she would “welcome any effort to responsibly accelerate rebuilding.”

Barger said permits take 30 days to move through the county’s plan check, but often encounter delays due to “complex multi-party work of architects, engineers, and builders.”

She also called for more federal funding and long-term disaster aid.

“The most urgent need in the Altadena region is financially driven,” she said in a statement to The Times.

Advertisement

Some in the Palisades agreed that money was a bigger issue than permitting.

“When I talk to people it seems to have more to do with their insurance payout or whether they have enough money to complete construction,” said Maryam Zar, a Palisades resident who runs the Palisades Recovery Coalition.

Zar called the executive order “interesting” and said that it was fair of the president to call the recovery pace slow and unacceptable.

Jonathan Zasloff, a UCLA Law professor who focuses on land use, called the executive order “childish and irresponsible policy.”

Zasloff, who lost his Palisades home in the fire, said that the president does not have the authority to get rid of state and local law just because he doesn’t like them. Instead, Zasloff said, the president should focus on fully funding disaster recovery so that the city and county can have adequate staff to process permit applications.

Advertisement

“My house burned down in the Palisades. Getting rid of the building codes would make it easier to rebuild something, but it could also make things a lot more dangerous,” he said.

Continue Reading

Politics

Mamdani’s early moves as mayor clash with affordability pledge: ‘Ripple effects are significant’

Published

on

Mamdani’s early moves as mayor clash with affordability pledge: ‘Ripple effects are significant’

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani ran on a message of making the Big Apple more affordable for everyday Americans, but some of his actions in the first few weeks of his tenure have served to undercut that reality.

In the early days of his time as mayor, Mamdani has already shown a penchant for vehemently defending low-wage, unskilled delivery-app workers in a manner that industry executives and business experts think will hit consumers’ pocketbooks. He sued a delivery app startup earlier this month for allegedly violating the city’s worker-rights laws, and warned the broader range of delivery app companies operating in the city to abide by ramped up worker rights being imposed at the end of the month, or else.

At a press conference announcing the lawsuit and accompanying demand letters issued to delivery app companies warning them to follow the updated worker protections, Mamdani also accused the delivery-app startup, MotoClick, of stealing workers’ tips. Among the reforms Mamdani has signaled he plans to vigorously enforce is a mandated tipping framework that estimates show could push more than half-a-billion in additional costs on consumers annually. 

The updated protections will also add more delivery-app companies, such as those that deliver groceries, to the list that must follow the delivery-app worker rights laws, including a mandated minimum wage higher than what some emergency medical services (EMS) personnel in the city make.

Advertisement

‘ZOHRANOMICS’: NYC MAYOR ZOHRAN MAMDANI’S SOCIALIST MATH DOESN’T ADD UP 

Zesty is now in beta in San Francisco and New York as DoorDash tests and refines its personalized matching experience. (iStock)

“We know affordability is not just about the cost of goods — it’s about the dignity of work,” Mamdani’s Commissioner of the Department of Consumer and Worker Protection (DCWP) Sam Levine told companies including DoorDash, GrubHub and Uber. “Today’s lawsuit against Motoclick is not just an action against one company, it’s a warning to every app-based company from this Administration. You cannot treat workers like they are expendable and get away with it. We will seek full back pay and damages. We will seek full accountability.”

Mamdani pointed to a recent report put out by Levine, which showed disobeying city mandates going into effect later this month, requiring apps to give the opportunity for customers to tip before or at the same time that an order has been placed, significantly impacts the amount of incoming tip revenue. Levine’s report that Mamdani touted estimates alternative tipping frameworks, such as only allowing tips upon completion of a delivery, have altered tipping revenue by an estimated $550 million per year.

Mamdani also stood by in tacit agreement during the press conference as delivery-app worker advocates called for an increase to their already mandated minimum wage they have that is approximately $4.50 higher for delivery-app drivers than the city’s base minimum wage of $17 per hour. The workers said they wanted a mandate that they get paid $35 per hour, to which Mamdani replied: “closed mouths don’t get fed.”

Advertisement

Mamdani campaigned on raising the base minimum wage to $30 per hour for all New Yorkers by 2030.

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani at a press conference defending worker rights for delivery-app drivers on Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Meanwhile, his eager enforcement to protect delivery-app drivers will include making sure a wider breadth of delivery-app companies, such as those who deliver groceries like InstaCart and Shipt, abide by New York City’s extended minimum wage laws for their workers – plus the other mandates related to the tipping structure and more.

DCWP has indicated plans to set a minimum pay rate for all delivery apps by early 2027.

HOURS AFTER TAKING OFFICE, NYC MAYOR MAMDANI TARGETS LANDLORDS, MOVES TO INTERVENE IN PRIVATE BANKRUPTCY CASE    

Advertisement

“The challenges facing delivery workers, small businesses, and consumers are real, and deeply interconnected. That’s why this issue cannot be reduced to a single policy lever or viewed in isolation,” a spokesperson for the Bronx Chamber of Commerce told Fox News Digital. “Small businesses across the Bronx and throughout New York City are already under extraordinary pressure. When additional costs are layered on without a full economic analysis, those costs are predictably passed down to consumers or absorbed through reduced hours, reduced staffing, or closures. When businesses close, communities lose jobs, services, and economic anchors, and the ripple effects are significant.”

The Chamber of Commerce spokesperson added that Mamdani has an opportunity “to lead by tackling affordability in a holistic way,” which they said would require “comprehensive cost analysis and coordinated solutions that support workers while ensuring the small business ecosystem and consumer affordability are not unintentionally harmed.”

Signage reading ‘Days of a New Era’ is juxtaposed behind New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani during a press conference he attended about reining in ‘junk fees.’ (Adam Gray/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

When reached for comment about the discrepancy between Mamdani’s message of making New York City more affordable for everyone, versus his push to protect delivery-app worker rights that could impact consumer pricing, a New York City Hall spokesperson argued that “the insinuation that putting more money in the pockets of delivery workers undercuts affordability is absurd.”

“Delivery Workers are important members of our city’s economy, and deserve to be paid fairly – anything less is unacceptable,” the spokesperson added. “As Mayor Mamdani continues to stand up for everyday New Yorkers and actualize his ambitious agenda to make New York City truly livable for families. Affordability has been, and will continue to be, a guiding light.”

Advertisement

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

But DoorDash’s head of public policy for North America, John Horton, said that ensuring delivery-app workers “earn double what many first responders in the city make” is not a policy solution they believe will make New York City more affordable. Currently, a local fire technician and emergency medical services union in the city is in the midst of a public awareness campaign to raise their wages because they make less than delivery-app drivers at $18.94 per hour.

Delivery-app workers in New York City must be paid $21.44 per hour according to local worker protection mandates.  (iStock)

“A thriving New York will take a partnership between elected officials, the business community and workers to ensure we are all working in the best interests of New Yorkers in the midst of the city’s affordability crisis,” Horton added. 

Fox News Digital followed up with Mamdani’s campaign to inquire about the complaint that EMS and some firemen in the city are making less than delivery-app workers, but did not receive a response in time for publication.

Advertisement

Continue Reading

Trending