Politics
Which Battleground State Voters Could Sway the Election?
It’s no secret that the political sentiments of Americans follow lines of race and ethnicity, education and age. But what makes presidential elections so competitive is how these demographic groups often balance each other out.
Voters in key states in 2020
In 2024, this delicate equilibrium is key to understanding the seven battleground states where, according to the polls, the presidential race is closest. Last election, several of these states were decided by fewer than 40,000 votes. Since then, together they’ve added about 1.3 million potential voters, and the smallest shifts in sentiment or turnout among certain groups could be enough to alter the outcome of this election.
To better understand the demographic forces at play in the battlegrounds, The New York Times conducted a granular review of the 2020 contest and compared precinct-level results with census data to estimate who cast ballots and how they voted. We examined race and ethnicity, age, education and geography to identify trends and key groups in each state. (Gender is another growing factor in partisanship but was not part of this analysis.)
2020 result: Biden won by 10,000 votes Key groups: Latino voters, young voters
The 2020 Electorate
3.4 million people voted
1.7 million people did not vote
What to watch President Biden’s winning coalition relied heavily on Latino voters, who made up nearly a quarter of those who voted in 2020, a figure that will likely rise in this election. But while Latino voters in the state have typically favored Democrats, no group is a monolith.
Experts say Latinos have weaker party attachment than other nonwhite groups and could be persuaded to change their votes. Moreover, a significant share of this group is made up of U.S.-born, young Latinos who will vote for the first time, and their sentiment is less predictable. Recent surveys have shown former President Donald J. Trump making inroads with young people and voters of color.
Mr. Trump’s biggest support in 2020 came from white voters aged 35 and older. This group accounted for half of the ballots cast, due in part to the outsize number of white retirees in the state.
For Democrats, there are potentially more votes to gain. In 2020, there were more ballots cast for the Democratic Senate candidate than for Mr. Biden. “Those voters who voted for Mark Kelly but decided not to vote for Biden or Trump could have decided the outcome of the race,” said Samara Klara, a political science professor at the University of Arizona.
2020 result: Biden won by 12,000 votes
Key groups: Black voters, white voters with a college degree
The 2020 Electorate
5 million people voted
2.5 million people did not vote
What to watch Democrats in Georgia have long been guided by the “30/30 rule,” a term made popular by the University of Georgia political scientist Charles S. Bullock III. It says that in order for Democrats to win, Black voters must make up 30 percent of all voters and at least 30 percent of white voters must vote Democratic.
Black voters, who cast nearly a third of the ballots in 2020, overwhelmingly favored Mr. Biden — by almost 90 percent. But that reliable base of support appeared to be slipping earlier this year, and it’s a group that experts say Vice President Kamala Harris must energize and excite. About 850,000 Black Georgia residents did not vote in 2020.
“If you have anemic turnout among Black voters, that will spell doom for the Democratic ticket,” said Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University.
Georgia voters, by race and education
Both parties will also be looking to appeal to a growing share of white voters with a bachelor’s degree, a group whose votes were split nearly evenly between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump in 2020.
2020 result: Biden won by 154,000 votes
Key groups: Suburban voters, Black voters, Arab American voters
The 2020 Electorate 5.5 million people voted
2 million people did not vote
What to watch In 2020, Mr. Biden won Michigan handily — at least by the standards of a battleground state.
But Mr. Trump performed very well with white residents in suburban and rural communities, who made up nearly two-thirds of the voters in the 2020 election.
Michigan voters by geography
Democrats’ strong performance among nonwhite voters and in the suburbs of Detroit helped erase Republicans’ advantage in the suburbs around smaller cities in 2020. But even though Black voters overwhelmingly supported Mr. Biden, they were a relatively small group — just 14 percent of those who cast ballots. And experts say that Black support for Democrats could be waning in Michigan.
“There’s definitely an attitude that they aren’t represented, in comparison to their population and their outsize role in the Democratic party,” said Matt Grossmann, a political science professor at Michigan State University. He pointed to Detroit, a majority-Black city that does not have any Black representation in Congress. “The feeling is, how much attention are you paying to us? And how much are you taking us for granted?”
Disillusionment among the estimated 3 percent of Michigan voters who are Muslim and Arab American — a traditionally strong Democratic constituency — could also make a difference this year. Many of these voters have voiced their anger and frustration with the Biden administration’s support for Israel in the war in Gaza, and some have said they may choose to sit out this election or cast ballots in favor of a third-party candidate.
2020 result: Biden won by 34,000 votes
Key groups: Nonwhite voters, voters without a college degree
The 2020 Electorate
1.4 million people voted
783,000 people did not vote
What to watch Nationally, education is a major political fault line, with college-educated voters far more likely to support the Democratic Party and less-educated voters favoring Republicans. But Nevada is the major exception to this rule: Democrats have won there in the past four elections, despite the state having a relatively low share of college-educated voters.
That’s because educational attainment divides mostly white voters, and many of Nevada’s less-educated voters are not white. Mr. Biden won half of the vote among voters without a four-year degree in Nevada, atypical for the nation as a whole.
Nevada voters by race and education
Over the last several years, inflation has hurt working-class voters, and concerns about the economy could make it easier for the Trump campaign to eat into the Democratic advantage with blue-collar voters of color.
“Nevada is a little bit of a different animal,” said David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, pointing to the state’s low voter turnout, high diversity and more transient population. “This all means that there are a lot of potential untapped voters that could be mobilized.”
2020 result: Trump won by 74,000 votes
Key groups: Rural voters, suburban voters
The 2020 Electorate 5.5 million people voted
2.3 million people did not vote
What to watch In 2020, North Carolina gave Mr. Trump the narrowest lead of any state he won. Voters in rural areas, who accounted for nearly a fifth of the total, helped deliver Mr. Trump his victory.
North Carolina voters by geography
But North Carolina also has many small cities with a strong partisan divide between city-dwellers, who favor Democrats, and suburbanites, who favor Republicans.
For Democrats to flip the state, they must lose fewer votes in rural areas and increase voter turnout in smaller cities, like Greensboro and Asheville, said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University.
“If we see a marginal movement away from Trump in rural areas, that’s really important,” he said. “The map will still show these places as red, but those differences can be the difference between winning and losing.”
2020 result: Biden won by 82,000 votes Key groups: Voters without a four-year college degree, suburban voters
The 2020 Electorate
6.9 million people voted
3 million people did not vote
What to watch As it does in other states, education plays a big role in the partisan divide in Pennsylvania. White voters without a bachelor’s degree made up nearly half the total, and they favored Mr. Trump three to one in 2020. Even so, that wasn’t enough for him to overcome the coalition of white voters with a college degree and voters of color who delivered Mr. Biden a victory.
The other big factor is geography.
Pennsylvania voters by geography
Mr. Trump dominated the state’s rural areas and small towns, as well as the Pittsburgh suburbs. But Mr. Biden had a strong showing in Pennsylvania’s cities and in the Philadelphia suburbs, areas that accounted for more than 40 percent of the votes in 2020.
2020 result: Biden won by 21,000 votes
Key groups: Rural voters, young voters
The 2020 Electorate
3.3 million people voted
1.1 million people did not vote
Wisconsin saw a similar geographic divide among voters. The bulk of Mr. Trump’s support came from the state’s more than 1,000 small towns and the outer suburbs of Milwaukee.
But the fastest-growing part of the state is an area that increasingly favors Democrats: the suburbs of Madison, home to the main campus of the University of Wisconsin.
Wisconsin voters by geography
In 2020, turnout in Dane County, which includes Madison, was 89 percent.
“It is among the highest turnout counties in the country,” said Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Law School Poll. “The question for Democrats here is, is it even possible to squeeze more votes out of Dane County?”
Politics
The Biggest Moments of Trump’s 2025: Mass Deportations, Tariffs and More
When Mr. Trump signed an executive order in March that promised to restore the Smithsonian Museum “to its rightful place as a symbol of inspiration and American greatness,” historians and other observers were anxious about what he meant.
Months later, the president confirmed their worst fears.
“The Smithsonian is OUT OF CONTROL, where everything discussed is how horrible our Country is, how bad Slavery was, and how unaccomplished the downtrodden have been,” he wrote in a social media post in August.
The post, which came a week after the White House ordered a review of the museum’s exhibitions, offered the most candid look to date at what many of Mr. Trump’s executive actions on diversity have targeted: the history and experience of Black people in the United States.
High-profile Black leaders have been fired as the president builds an overwhelmingly white administration. Federal websites have been scrubbed to sanitize the country’s history of slavery and discrimination. And other government agencies, like the National Park Service, have also removed exhibits on slavery. At the same time, Mr. Trump has reinstalled statues that glorify Confederate soldiers.
In his first year, Mr. Trump has set out to rewrite the nation’s history by erasing the scars of its original sin.
Photographs by Al Drago, Doug Mills, Maansi Srivastava and Bettmann Archive, via Getty Images.
Politics
Nonprofit uses underwater technology to search for missing service members
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More than 80,000 service members who went missing in action in previous conflicts are still unaccounted for. However, through research and new technology, the Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency estimates the remains of 38,000 fallen veterans could be recoverable. Nonprofit organization Project Recover is working with the agency to bring some of those service members home through complex underwater missions.
“This is a great American story here,” former Navy Rear Admiral Tim Gallaudet said. “Our work is to use technology, like underwater drones and scuba diving gear, to find the platforms that these members perished on and then do the DNA analysis of detecting and recovering their remains and matching them to those that are missing.”
Project Recover members stand with folded American flags during a ceremony honoring fallen World War II aviators. (Project Recover)
Gallaudet also serves as a Project Recover advisory council member. The group was founded by Dr. Patrick Scannon. He came up with the idea in 1993 when he was touring the Palau islands with his wife and discovered a downed plane from World War II.
“That 65-foot wing essentially changed my life,” Scannon said in an interview with GoPro.
NEWLY RELEASED AMELIA EARHART DOCUMENTS REVEAL VIVID DETAILS OF JAPAN’S ROLE IN SEARCH FOR DOOMED AVIATOR
Project Recover teams have located dozens of aircraft sites around the Palau islands associated with nearly 100 service members who went missing in action.
“The recovery is difficult. We first have to find the aircraft or ships,” Gallaudet said. “And then we’ve got to go determine if there are any remains there and then ID them, match them to the service members. “
In 1944, U.S. officials determined the Palau islands were a crucial part of a larger mission to liberate the Philippines. The effort to capture the island of Peleliu ended up being a costly effort for the U.S. Located around 500 miles away from the Philippines, the island held an airfield, which U.S. officials believed could be used to launch an attack during their larger mission. More than 10,000 Japanese troops were stationed on Peleliu at the time.
U.S. Air Force B-52 bombers are parked on a military airfield. (B-52 Bomber Down)
The battle was expected to last just a few days but ended up going on for 74. The U.S. began its bombardment by dropping more than 600 tons of bombs, but the Marines had little intelligence on enemy positions. Japanese troops hid in coral caves and mine shafts around the islands. The initial aerial attacks had little impact unless pilots flew dangerously close to the island.
SEARCH FOR MISSING MALAYSIA AIRLINES FLIGHT 370 TO RESUME AFTER MORE THAN A DECADE
On Peleliu, 1,800 Americans were killed in action and more than 8,000 were wounded or missing. Nearly all the 10,000 Japanese troops were killed in action. Across the Palau islands, the U.S. had carried out nine major air campaigns in which around 200 aircraft were lost.
Now Project Recover is working to bring some of those service members home.
“There were three service members on the aircraft that perished, a lieutenant and then two enlisted crew members. And over the last few years, we were able to recover the remains of all three. And we didn’t identify them all at the same time. It took forensic analysis and DNA. Technology. But the last one was finally identified,” Gallaudet said.
Lt. Jay Manown, AOM1c Anthony Di Petta and ARM1c Wilbur Mitts took off for a bombing mission in September 1944. They were conducting pre-invasion strikes in preparation for the invasion of Peleliu when their plane spun out of control and crashed into surrounding waters.
“The plane was hit by enemy fire, and it burst into flames,” Di Petta’s niece, Suzanne Nakamura, said in an interview with Media Evolve.
Project Recover located the plane in 2015. After more than a dozen dives to investigate the wreckage, teams began removing the remains of the three service members. Lt. Manown was the last to be repatriated.
“We held the ceremony in his hometown in West Virginia, and the relatives of all three service members came to that final ceremony,” Gallaudet said.
The three nieces of the men have become especially close.
A diver examines a wreck during an underwater mission to locate and recover missing U.S. service members. (Project Recover)
WWII HERO’S REMAINS FINALLY COMING HOME AFTER 80-YEAR MYSTERY IS SOLVED THROUGH MILITARY DEDICATION
“We’ve communicated beautifully and become friends through this experience and almost a sisterhood of type,” Manown’s niece, Rebecca Sheets, said in an interview with Media Evolve.
“We’ve talked so much by phone and feel so close,” Mitt’s niece, Diana Ward, told Media Evolve. “This is just a joy to meet each other in person, and we’re just sharing the emotion we’ve felt about bringing our uncles home.”
The three women have also connected over how their grandmothers, or the mothers of Manown, Di Petta and Mitts, may have felt about their sons finally coming home.
“We have a connection because our uncles were involved in not only defending the freedom of the United States, but as human beings who fought together and died together,” Nakamura said.
AMELIA EARHART MYSTERY EXPEDITION HALTED AS RESEARCHERS SEEK ANSWERS ON MISSING PLANE
Including their work in Palau, Project Recover has completed more than 100 missions across 25 countries. They have repatriated 24 missing Americans and have located more than 200 missing in action awaiting further recovery efforts. The group is raising money for a mission it hopes to complete in 2026 — the search for a B-52 aircraft that disappeared during a training accident.
“It’s off the coast of Texas. We’ve not yet found the aircraft. And of those eight service members, they all had families,” Gallaudet said. “There are about 32 of those family members still alive today who want the answers to know what happened to their loved ones.”
In addition to the more than 80,000 missing-in-action service members, 20,000 are missing from training accidents. The Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency is not permitted to allocate funds toward a search effort for the eight men who disappeared along with their B-52 because the crash occurred during a non-conflict training accident.
“Not having found the wreck yet, we don’t know what the cause of the failure was. And so it’s our goal to find that wreckage and then take the remains and repatriate them to the families,” Gallaudet said.
U.S. Air Force B-52 crew members pose for a group photo. (B-52 Bomber Down)
The Air Force Bomber was on a routine training mission in February 1968 when it disappeared from radar and radio contact. The Air Force immediately conducted an extensive nine-day search of the flight path but found no trace of the bomber. As the military concluded its search, determining it went down in an unknown location, three pieces of debris washed ashore in Corpus Christi, Texas.
“This B-52 off the Texas coast hasn’t been located yet, but we think we know where the area is. We’re going to find it,” Gallaudet said.
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More than $300,000 has been raised for the mission so far. Project Recover estimates another $200,000 is needed to search for the eight men. If the organization can locate the remains, the Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency will be able to allocate resources for a recovery effort.
You can learn more about Project Recover and the missing B-52 and donate to help with the search on Project Recover’s website.
Politics
Federal judge blocks ICE from arresting immigrants who show up for court appointments in Northern California
A federal judge in San Francisco on Wednesday barred Immigration and Customs Enforcement and its Justice Department counterpart from “sweeping” civil arrests at immigration courthouses across Northern California, teeing up an appellate challenge to one of the Trump administration’s most controversial deportation tactics.
“This circumstance presents noncitizens in removal proceedings with a Hobson’s choice between two irreparable harms,” Judge P. Casey Pitts wrote in his Christmas Eve decision.
“First, they may appear in immigration court and face likely arrest and detention,” the judge wrote. “Alternatively, noncitizens may choose not to appear and instead to forego their opportunity to pursue their claims for asylum or other relief from removal.”
Wednesday’s decision blocks ICE and the Department of Justice’s Executive Office for Immigration Review from lying in wait for asylum seekers and other noncitizens at routine hearings throughout the region — a move that would effectively restore pre-Trump prohibition on such arrests.
“Here, ICE and EOIR’s prior policies governing courthouse arrests and detention in holding facilities provide a standard,” the judge said.
Authorities have long curbed arrests at “sensitive locations”— such as hospitals, houses of worship and schools — putting them out of reach of most civil immigration enforcement.
The designation was first established decades ago under ICE’s predecessor agency, Immigration and Naturalization Services. ICE absorbed the prohibitions when the agency was formed in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks.
Courts were added to the list under President Obama. The policy prohibiting most courthouse arrests was suspended during the first Trump administration and reinstated by President Biden.
Internal ICE guidance from the Biden era found “[e]xecuting civil immigration enforcement actions in or near a courthouse may chill individuals’ access to courthouses and, as a result, impair the fair administration of justice.”
Nevertheless, the agency’s courthouse policy was reversed again earlier this year, leading to a surge in arrests, and a staggering drop in court appearances, court records show.
Most who do not show up are ordered removed in absentia.
Monthly removal in absentia orders more than doubled this year, to 4,177 from fewer than 1,600 in 2024, justice department data show.
More than 50,000 asylum seekers have been ordered removed after failing to appear in court hearings since January — more than were ordered removed in absentia in the previous five years combined.
“ICE cannot choose to ignore the ‘costs’ of its new policies—chilling the participation of noncitizens in their removal proceedings —and consider only the policies’ purported ‘benefits’ for immigration enforcement,” Pitts wrote in his stay order.
That ruling likely sets the San Francisco case on a collision course with other lawsuits seeking to curb ICE’s incursions into spaces previously considered off-limits. This suit was brought by a group of asylum seekers who braved the risk and were detained when they showed up to court.
One, a 24-year-old Guatemalan asylum seeker named Yulisa Alvarado Ambrocio, was spared detention only because her breastfeeding 11-month-old was with her in court, records show. Administration lawyers told the court ICE would almost certainly pick her up at her next hearing.
Such arrests appear arbitrary and capricious, and are unlikely to survive scrutiny by the courts, Judge Pitts ruled Wednesday.
“That widespread civil arrests at immigration courts could have a chilling effect on noncitizens’ attendance at removal proceedings (as common sense, the prior guidance, and the actual experience in immigration court since May 2025 make clear) and thereby undermine this central purpose is thus ‘an important aspect of the problem’ that ICE was required, but failed, to consider,” Pitts wrote.
A district judge in Manhattan ruled the opposite way on a similar case this fall, setting up a possible circuit split and even a Supreme Court challenge to courthouse arrests in 2026.
For now, the Christmas Eve decision only applies to ICE’s San Francisco Area of Responsibility, a region encompassing all of Northern and Central California, as far south as Bakersfield.
The geographic limit comes in response to the Supreme Court’s emergency decision earlier this year stripping district judges of the power to block federal policies outside narrowly-tailored circumstances.
The administration told the court it intends to appeal to the 9th Circuit, where Trump-appointed judges have swung the bench far to the right of its longtime liberal reputation.
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