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What Past Polling Misses Can Tell Us About the 2024 Election

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What Past Polling Misses Can Tell Us About the 2024 Election

Note: Arrows show the weighted national polling average margin compared with the final national popular vote margin.

Every cycle, the polls diverge from the election results to some extent. It’s inevitable when pollsters can only make estimates about who will show up to vote, some people only make up their minds in the voting booth, and bombshells may drop late in the race.

Data from the past four decades shows that the polls do not always bias one party over the other, and that past performance can’t predict how the polls will do the next time around. The polls in the 2022 midterms, for example, were some of the most accurate in years.

To judge the accuracy of presidential polls, the charts in this article show averages that combine many polls into one estimate for each election. Between 1988 and 2020, the final national polling average was off by an average of 2.3 percentage points.

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Some years were better than others: In 2008, the national polling average missed the final result for Barack Obama by less than one percentage point on average; in 1996, it overestimated the support for Bill Clinton by almost four points.

State-level polls haven’t performed quite as well. Since 2000, polls in close states have been off by an average of 3.1 points. In 2016 and 2020, nearly all of the state-level polling averages underestimated support for Mr. Trump, sometimes by a wide margin.

State polling misses in presidential elections with Trump

Wisconsin had one of the biggest polling misses in recent cycles, overstating Mr. Biden’s support by 9 points.

Several states that Mr. Trump ultimately won had polling averages showing Mrs. Clinton in the lead.

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The state polling misses have been magnified in the last two presidential elections — two very close races that heightened the importance of the Electoral College. But the polls’ performance in those two years was not entirely unusual. A look at state polling misses since 2000 shows that polls of older elections did about as well as today’s polls.

State polling misses in presidential elections

State polls underestimated Mr. Obama, with the exception of South Carolina, which Mitt Romney won.

Polls showed John McCain leading in Indiana, but Mr. Obama won the state.

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Polls were more of a mixed bag, with some underestimating George W. Bush, and others John Kerry.

Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the election. Polls showed Mr. Bush leading in Florida, but the results were razor thin.

State polls have missed in both directions over the years. But if pollsters underestimated Mr. Trump in the last two elections, are they doomed to do so again this year? Should you, as some poll watchers claim to do, mentally add a boost for Mr. Trump to any poll numbers you see?

Pollsters believe they have largely identified what caused the polling misses in 2016. A major culprit was the failure to account for voters’ education levels, according to a report from a professional organization of public pollsters. State level polls in particular that year overrepresented college-educated respondents and undercounted respondents without a college degree.

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This was less of a problem in past elections, when vote choice did not cleave so sharply along educational lines. But in 2016 and thereafter, non-college-educated voters have largely supported Republicans, especially Mr. Trump.

By 2020, nearly all pollsters had begun accounting for education. But polls still underestimated Mr. Trump. This time, the cause of the error was less clear-cut. One theory, presented by a report evaluating 2020 polls, is that Trump supporters were less likely to respond to surveys. As a result, “even if you control for white non-college male, the ones that answer the survey are more Democratic than the ones who don’t,” said Chris Jackson, who heads U.S. public opinion research for Ipsos. Others have posited that Biden voters were more likely to stay at home during the pandemic, giving them more time and opportunity to respond to polls.

Yet another challenge that year: the record turnout. About a quarter of voters in 2020 had not voted in 2016, according to estimates by the Pew Research Center. And polling had indicated that any new 2020 voters would mostly be Biden supporters. In fact, they were divided between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, according to the Pew study.

So, what about this year? Polling in seven swing states is extremely close — in most of these states, Mr. Trump and Kamala Harris are essentially tied. While the polls in these states underestimated Mr. Trump’s support in the last two cycles, historically, they have a mixed track record, with misses on both the left and right, and some years better than others.

Past polling misses in presidential elections for battleground states

Years in bold indicate those in which the polling leader lost in that state.

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Coalition of 25 states sues Trump admin over Medicaid work rule designed to prevent fraud

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Coalition of 25 states sues Trump admin over Medicaid work rule designed to prevent fraud

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A coalition of blue states and jurisdictions is suing the Trump administration over new Medicaid work requirements designed to prevent fraud, arguing the policy unlawfully restricts access to health care coverage.

The lawsuit, filed by at least 25 states and the District of Columbia, alleges the newly implemented Interim Final Rule (IFR) — issued by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) — violates federal law and departs from Congress’ original intent and early CMS guidance. 

The IFR requires certain individuals to provide documentation proving they are exempt from Medicaid rules requiring enrollees to work, volunteer or attend school due to severe medical conditions. 

Before the rule was issued in early June, highly vulnerable Medicaid recipients were set to be automatically exempt from such requirements. Agencies would have granted those exemptions by reviewing existing health records, without requiring individuals to complete additional paperwork ahead of the requirements taking effect in January 2027.

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DR. OZ UNVEILS MEDICAID OVERHAUL, CLAMPS DOWN ON $2B FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS AND MANDATES WORK FOR ABLE-BODIED

Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, discussed a number of healthcare topics during a news conference with reporters on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. (Aaron Schwartz/CNP/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The lawsuit names Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), which issued the IFR, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), as defendants.

Oz previously argued that such guardrails are designed to prevent programs from being “defrauded into a turmoil,” adding that able-bodied enrollees receiving American tax dollars should contribute to society. 

“If you can work, you should get up and work,” Oz said. 

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“If we put guardrails around these programs, we’ll allow them to thrive. I’m here because I love Medicaid. The president has already said he loves and cherishes Medicaid and Medicare. … We cannot allow these programs to be defrauded into a turmoil that they cannot pull up from. If we love these programs, we will make the difficult decisions.”

The new rule would require able-bodied individuals to work 20 hours a week, volunteer, or pursue education while enrolled in free healthcare coverage.

Fox News reached out to the White House and HHS for comment. 

FED AUDIT, EMERGENCY MEDICAID UNDERCUT DEMS ON ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT HEALTH COVERAGE

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks during an interview. ((Photo by Jason Mendez/Getty Images))

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The plaintiffs involve California, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin and Kentucky. 

“People with disabilities, patients in the middle of cancer treatment, or those struggling with another serious or complex health condition, shouldn’t be at risk of losing the care that helps maintain their health,” the suit stated. 

REPUBLICANS PRAISE ‘BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL’S’ WORK REQUIREMENT FOR MEDICAID: ‘WE’VE GOT TO GET BACK TO WORK’

According to the suit, CMS’s own projections estimate that 2.3 million enrollees will lose Medicaid coverage in the first year alone. 

The agency also estimates that 7% of enrollees who are working or qualify for an exemption will lose coverage due to confusing paperwork requirements, strict deadlines or missing documentation, according to the document. 

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Beginning in 2028, enrollees who do not have immediate medical records on file would be limited to a single opportunity to submit a “self-attestation” form declaring, under penalty of perjury, that they are too sick to work.

Under previous guidance, enrollees were allowed to use self-attestation multiple times as their medical needs evolved.

An examination bed sits inside a medical clinic. (AP Photo/Matt York)

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In addition, plaintiffs said the new rules would force states to abandon automated systems they have already invested in and instead build more complex and costly manual review processes. 

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As the Aug. 31 deadline to mail notices to Medicaid enrollees approaches, the plaintiffs are seeking a temporary stay and a preliminary injunction to block CMS and HHS from enforcing the rules. 

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Bill to ban sex offenders from running for office fails in California senate committee

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Bill to ban sex offenders from running for office fails in California senate committee

California Democratic senators failed to advance a proposal Tuesday that would have barred registered sex offenders from running for office.

State Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) voted against Assembly Bill 2753, while fellow Sens. Tom Umberg (D-Santa Ana) and Ben Allen (D-Santa Monica) abstained from a vote that ultimately failed 2-1-2 in the Senate Elections and Constitutional Committee.

The committee’s lone Republican, Steve Choi (R-Irvine), and Sen. Sabrina Cervantes (D-Riverside) voted in favor of the bill, which is likely dead because it failed to get support from a majority of the five-member panel.

AB 2753 could be reviewed in a floor session Thursday, but staff from the office of Assemblywoman Esmeralda Soria (D-Fresno), who authored the bill, are conceding that’s unlikely.

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The defeat comes on the heels of unanimous support, including a 60-0 vote in favor on the Assembly Floor on May 7.

“I am deeply disappointed and disheartened after the Senate Elections Committee has failed to advance AB 2753, a bill that would have prohibited any registered sex offender in the State of California from running for local or state public office,” Soria said in a statement.

The bill’s wording said the legislation would “prohibit a person from being a candidate for, or elected to, any state or local elective office if the person has ever been required to register as a sex offender.”

Inquiries to the offices of Sens. Wiener, Umberg and Allen were not immediately returned.

Sex offenses in California are broken up into three tiers. First-tier offenses call for a minimum of 10 years placement on the sex offender registry. Second-tier offenses call for a minimum of 20 years and third tier crimes could result in a lifetime on the registry.

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The types of offenses for each tier vary. Tier 1 offenses range from indecent exposure to misdemeanor child pornography and sexual battery. Tier 2 includes incest and penetration with a foreign object, and Tier 3 includes felony possession of child pornography, rape and pimping and pandering of a minor.

Wiener asked for amendments to the bill during the bill’s review and in the committee meeting, including that the lifetime ban only be applied to Tier 3 members.

He pointed to committee analysis of the bill that could affect so-called “Romeo and Juliet” couples — those close in age, for instance with one partner being 19 and the other being 17. If the younger partner sent sexually explicit digital content to the older partner (a misdemeanor), this law could ban the older partner from public office for life.

There were also concerns listed in the analysis that the registry, which dates back to 1947, could include LGBTQ+ offenders from decades ago who were convicted of offenses that are no longer crimes.

Wiener mentioned in the committee meeting civil rights strategist and fighter Bayard Rustin being placed on the California sex offender’s registry list after being arrested by Pasadena Police for having consensual sex with another man in 1953.

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“Without the amendment contained in the analysis, I will be voting ‘no’ on this bill and recommending that the committee vote ‘no,’” Wiener said at the committee hearing.

He added that the sex offender list was “not punishment,” but instead “a tool for law enforcement to monitor who may potentially cause a risk.”

While Soria agreed to one bill amendment, she did not accept other provisions, including the elimination of lifetime bans on Tier 1 or 2 offenses.

“The bottom line is this: I was not willing to make additional amendments to this bill,” she said. “I made a promise to my community that I would do everything in my power to ensure they would never have to go through something like this again. Accepting additional amendments to this bill would have jeopardized that promise.”

Some of the impetus behind her bill revolved around the June 2 Fresno City Council election. Registered sex offender Rene Campos fell short of the necessary votes in his bid to run for Central Valley Council.

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He was charged with possession of child pornography in 2018 and hosted his campaign kickoff in front of an elementary school.

Nelson Esparza, Fresno City Council President, spoke at the Senate Elections and Constitutional Committee meeting in favor of AB 2753.

“My office received dozens of calls from our residents asking how this could be allowed,” Esparza said of Campos’ candidacy. “AB 2753 closes this loophole.”

It’s unclear if this bill will be reintroduced next year at least at the Assembly level, as Soria is running for the state senate in November.

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Mamdani ripped for claiming victory over capitalism after NYC’s multi-billion dollar taxpayer funded bailout

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Mamdani ripped for claiming victory over capitalism after NYC’s multi-billion dollar taxpayer funded bailout

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New York City’s mayor is again under fire after spewing outlandish claims that his socialist policies are to credit for a balanced budget in the Big Apple, just after the city received a multi-billion dollar bailout from the state.

“In January, our administration inherited a $12 billion budget deficit — a fiscal crisis greater than the Great Recession,” Mayor Zohran Mamdani said in a Tuesday post on X announcing that the debt had been cleared.

“We balanced the budget by taxing the rich and making government more efficient,” Mamdani continued. “We did not balance this budget on the backs of working people, and we never will.”

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani speaks during a primary-night watch party for NYC Congressional candidate Claire Valdez at 99 Scott Studio on June 23, 2026 in the East Williamsburg neighborhood of the Brooklyn borough in New York City. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

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MAMDANI ALLOCATES $500K FOR REPARATIONS TALKS AS NYC FACES $5.4B DEFICIT

But the real reason the budget it balanced is because the city was handed $1.5 billion by the state of New York in January — funded by working class taxpayers across the state — as part of a multi-year plan to bail out the fiscally-challenged city. In late May, the city received another $4 billion.

Of the combined $8 billion provided to the city’s bailout fund under former Mayor Eric Adams’ tenure and now Mamdani’s mayorship, $5 billion was directly earmarked for the city to address fiscal measures. This includes allowing city government to defer pension contributions to close the budgetary gap.

Mamdani’s claims about socialist policies producing results — and his failure to mention the massive bailouts provided by taxpayer dollars — did not fly on social media.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul holds media availability press conference and makes an announcement on abortion rights at the office on 633 3rd Avenue. (Lev Radin/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images)

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MAMDANI ALLOCATES $500K FOR REPARATIONS TALKS AS NYC FACES $5.4B DEFICIT

“This is a lie,” independent journalist Nick Shirley said in a reply to the mayor.

“You balanced the budget by borrowing billions from the NY state government which pushed back pension payments, so you literally took money from ‘the backs of hardworking people.’ Don’t get it twisted,” he added.

Commentator and journalist Nick Sortor also flamed the mayor over the loan and his classification of the bailout.

“Are you saying New Yorkers can ‘balance their budgets’ by taking out massive credit card loans?” he asked sarcastically.

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Independent journalist Nick Shirley sat down for an interview with Riley Gaines as part of the launch of Outkick’s “The Riley Gaines Show.” (OutKick)

BROADCAST NETWORKS TOUT MAMDANI’S VICTORIES, PROCLAIM SOCIALISM IS ‘RESONATING’

“Mamdani balanced the budget by taking money from Albany, who in turn taxed Rochester and Buffalo” another social media user said. “That’s who is paying for all of Mamdani’s free crap.”

In a press conference earlier in the day, Mamdani claimed victory over capitalism.

“Throughout this process I have been reminded of the words of the Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek: ‘if socialists understood economics, they wouldn’t be socialists.’”

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A man sleeps on the E train, one of the subway lines most utilized by homeless New Yorkers for shelter, in Queens, New York, on Monday, April 7, 2025. (Victor J. Blue for The Washington Post/Getty Images)

After the Republican National Convention (RNC) posted that clip, Mamdani also faced ridicule for that.

“It always looks good at first until the chickens come home to roost,” one person replied.

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“He’ll soon ‘deliver’ bread lines instead,” said another.

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Mamdani’s office did not return Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

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