Politics
What Past Polling Misses Can Tell Us About the 2024 Election
Note: Arrows show the weighted national polling average margin compared with the final national popular vote margin.
Every cycle, the polls diverge from the election results to some extent. It’s inevitable when pollsters can only make estimates about who will show up to vote, some people only make up their minds in the voting booth, and bombshells may drop late in the race.
Data from the past four decades shows that the polls do not always bias one party over the other, and that past performance can’t predict how the polls will do the next time around. The polls in the 2022 midterms, for example, were some of the most accurate in years.
To judge the accuracy of presidential polls, the charts in this article show averages that combine many polls into one estimate for each election. Between 1988 and 2020, the final national polling average was off by an average of 2.3 percentage points.
Some years were better than others: In 2008, the national polling average missed the final result for Barack Obama by less than one percentage point on average; in 1996, it overestimated the support for Bill Clinton by almost four points.
State-level polls haven’t performed quite as well. Since 2000, polls in close states have been off by an average of 3.1 points. In 2016 and 2020, nearly all of the state-level polling averages underestimated support for Mr. Trump, sometimes by a wide margin.
Wisconsin had one of the biggest polling misses in recent cycles, overstating Mr. Biden’s support by 9 points.
Several states that Mr. Trump ultimately won had polling averages showing Mrs. Clinton in the lead. State polling misses in presidential elections with Trump
The state polling misses have been magnified in the last two presidential elections — two very close races that heightened the importance of the Electoral College. But the polls’ performance in those two years was not entirely unusual. A look at state polling misses since 2000 shows that polls of older elections did about as well as today’s polls.
State polls underestimated Mr. Obama, with the exception of South Carolina, which Mitt Romney won.
Polls showed John McCain leading in Indiana, but Mr. Obama won the state. Polls were more of a mixed bag, with some underestimating George W. Bush, and others John Kerry.
Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the election. Polls showed Mr. Bush leading in Florida, but the results were razor thin.
State polling misses in presidential elections
State polls have missed in both directions over the years. But if pollsters underestimated Mr. Trump in the last two elections, are they doomed to do so again this year? Should you, as some poll watchers claim to do, mentally add a boost for Mr. Trump to any poll numbers you see?
Pollsters believe they have largely identified what caused the polling misses in 2016. A major culprit was the failure to account for voters’ education levels, according to a report from a professional organization of public pollsters. State level polls in particular that year overrepresented college-educated respondents and undercounted respondents without a college degree.
This was less of a problem in past elections, when vote choice did not cleave so sharply along educational lines. But in 2016 and thereafter, non-college-educated voters have largely supported Republicans, especially Mr. Trump.
By 2020, nearly all pollsters had begun accounting for education. But polls still underestimated Mr. Trump. This time, the cause of the error was less clear-cut. One theory, presented by a report evaluating 2020 polls, is that Trump supporters were less likely to respond to surveys. As a result, “even if you control for white non-college male, the ones that answer the survey are more Democratic than the ones who don’t,” said Chris Jackson, who heads U.S. public opinion research for Ipsos. Others have posited that Biden voters were more likely to stay at home during the pandemic, giving them more time and opportunity to respond to polls.
Yet another challenge that year: the record turnout. About a quarter of voters in 2020 had not voted in 2016, according to estimates by the Pew Research Center. And polling had indicated that any new 2020 voters would mostly be Biden supporters. In fact, they were divided between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, according to the Pew study.
So, what about this year? Polling in seven swing states is extremely close — in most of these states, Mr. Trump and Kamala Harris are essentially tied. While the polls in these states underestimated Mr. Trump’s support in the last two cycles, historically, they have a mixed track record, with misses on both the left and right, and some years better than others.
Years in bold indicate those in which the polling leader lost in that state. Note: Averages not available for some states in some years.
Most pollsters have made some changes to their methodology, partly in response to the 2020 misses, and the accurate 2022 midterm polls gave pollsters some optimism.
But one key difference between the midterms and the last two presidential elections is that Mr. Trump was not on the ballot. Ultimately, there may be something about Mr. Trump’s supporters that makes them especially difficult to measure in polls. “There’s a real possibility that having Trump on the ballot makes it hard to poll for whatever reason,” said Berwood Yost, the director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll of Pennsylvania.
“But the other possibility is that we’ve made all these adjustments to correct the error. And perhaps we’ve overcorrected,” he added. “I don’t know which it is.”
Past polling misses in presidential elections for battleground states
Politics
House Republicans push Johnson to go to war with Senate over SAVE Act
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Several House Republicans are pushing Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to go to war with the Senate GOP over an election security bill that has little chance of passing the upper chamber under current circumstances.
House GOP leaders convened a lawmaker-only call on Sunday in the wake of a massive military operation against Iran launched by the U.S. and Israel.
After leaders briefed House Republicans on how the chamber would respond to the ongoing conflict — including a vote on ending Democrats’ weeks-long government shutdown targeting the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) — Fox News Digital was told that several lawmakers raised concerns about the Senate not yet taking up the Safeguarding American Voter Eligiblity (SAVE America) Act. Among other provisions, the act would require voters in federal elections to produce valid ID and proof of citizenship.
Rep. Derrick Van Orden, R-Wis., was among those pushing the House to reject any bills from the Senate until the measure was taken up, telling Johnson according to multiple sources on the call, “If we don’t get this done, or at least show that we’ve got some backbone, we’re done. The midterms are over.”
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., pauses for questions from reporters as he arrives for an early closed-door Republican Conference meeting at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)
At least three other House Republicans shared similar concerns. Sources on the call said Rep. Brandon Gill, R-Texas, argued that GOP voters were “not enthused” heading into November and that “the single biggest thing” to turn that around would be forcing the Senate to pass the SAVE America Act.
The SAVE America Act passed the House last month with support from all Republicans and just one Democrat, Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas.
JEFFRIES ACCUSES REPUBLICANS OF ‘VOTER SUPPRESSION’ OVER BILL REQUIRING VOTER ID, PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP
Republicans have pointed out on multiple occasions that voter ID measures have bipartisan support across multiple public polls and surveys. But Democrats have dismissed the legislation as an attempt at voter suppression ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune speaks at a press conference with other members of Senate Republican leadership following a policy luncheon in Washington, D.C. on Oct. 28, 2025. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The legislation would require 60 votes in the Senate to break filibuster, which it’s likely not to get given Democrats’ near-uniform opposition. But House Republicans have pressured Senate Majority Leader John Thune to use a mechanism known as a standing filibuster to circumvent that — which Thune has signaled opposition to, given the vast amount of time it would take up in the Senate and potential unintended consequences in the amendment process.
It also comes as Congress grapples with the fallout from the strikes on Iran and the need to ensure safety for the U.S. domestically and for service members abroad, both of which will require close coordination between the two chambers.
Johnson told Republicans several times on the Sunday call that he was privately pressuring Thune on the bill but was wary of creating a public rift with his fellow GOP leader, sources said.
HARDLINE CONSERVATIVES DOUBLE DOWN TO SAVE THE SAVE ACT
“If we’re going to go to war against our own party in the Senate, there may be implications to that,” Johnson said at one point, according to people on the call. “So we want to be thoughtful and careful.”
Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, talks with a guest during a “Only Citizens Vote Bus Tour” rally in Upper Senate Park to urge Congress to pass the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act on Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
At another point in the call, sources said Rep. Andrew Clyde, R-Ga., suggested pairing a coming vote on DHS funding with the SAVE America Act in order to force the Senate to take it up.
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But both Johnson and House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Andrew Garbarino, R-N.Y., were hesitant about such a move given the enhanced threat environment in the wake of the U.S. operation in Iran.
Both spoke out in favor of the SAVE America Act, people told Fox News Digital, but warned the current situation merited leaving the DHS funding bill on its own in a bid to end the partial shutdown, so the department could fully function as a national security shield.
Politics
Trump justifies Iran attack as Congress and others raise objections
According to President Trump, the United States attacked Iran because the Islamic Republic posed “imminent threats” to the U.S. and its allies, including through its use of terrorist proxies and continued pursuit of nuclear weapons.
“Its menacing activities directly endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas and our allies throughout the world,” he said in a recorded statement Saturday.
According to leading Democrats in Congress, Trump’s justification is questionable, especially given his claims of having “completely obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities in separate U.S. bombings last June.
“Everything I have heard from the administration before and after these strikes on Iran confirms this is a war of choice with no strategic endgame,” said Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee and part of a small group of congressional leaders — the Gang of Eight — who were briefed on the operation by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
That divide is bound to remain an issue politically heading into this year’s midterm elections, and could be a liability for Republicans — especially considering that some in the “America First” wing of the MAGA base were raising their own objections, citing Trump’s 2024 campaign pledges to extricate the U.S. from foreign wars, not start new ones.
The debate echoed a similar if less immediate one around President George W. Bush’s decision to go to war in Iraq following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, also based on claims that “weapons of mass destruction” posed an immediate threat. Those claims were later disproved by multiple findings that Iraq had no such arsenal, fueling recriminations from both political parties for years.
The latest divide also intensified unease over Congress ceding its wartime powers to the White House, which for years has assumed sweeping authority to attack foreign adversaries without direct congressional input in the name of addressing terrorism or preventing immediate harm to the nation or its troops.
Even prior to the weekend bombings, Democrats including Sen. Adam Schiff of California were pushing Congress to pass a resolution barring the Trump administration from attacking Iran without explicit congressional authorization.
“President Trump must come to Congress before using military force unless absolutely necessary to defend the United States from an imminent attack,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), a member of the armed services and foreign relations committees, said in a statement Thursday.
In justifying the daylight strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei just two days later, Trump accused the Iranian government of having “waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder” for nearly half a century — including through attacks on U.S. military assets and commercial shipping vessels abroad — and of having “armed, trained and funded terrorist militias” in multiple countries, including Hezbollah and Hamas.
Trump said that after the U.S. bombed Iran last summer, it had warned Tehran “never to resume” its pursuit of nuclear weapons. “Instead, they attempted to rebuild their nuclear program and to continue developing long-range missiles that can now threaten our very good friends and allies in Europe, our troops stationed overseas, and could soon reach the American homeland,” he said.
Other Republican leaders largely backed the president.
“The United States did not start this conflict, but we will finish it. If you kill or threaten Americans anywhere in the world — as Iran has — then we will hunt you down, and we will kill you,” said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
“Every president has talked about the threat posed by the Iranian regime. President Trump is the one with the courage to take bold, decisive action,” said Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi.
While Iran’s coordination with and sponsorship of groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas are well known, Trump’s claims about Tehran’s ongoing development of nuclear weapons systems are less established — and the administration has provided little evidence to back them up.
Democrats seized on that lack of fresh intelligence in their responses to the attacks, contrasting Trump’s latest statements about imminent threats with his assertion after last year’s bombings that the U.S. had all but eliminated Iran’s nuclear aspirations.
“Let’s be clear: The Iranian regime is horrible. But I have seen no imminent threat to the United States that would justify putting American troops in harm’s way,” said Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee and a member of the Gang of Eight. “What is the motivation here? Is it Iran’s nuclear program? Their missiles? Regime change?”
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a statement that the Trump administration “has not provided Congress and the American people with critical details about the scope and immediacy of the threat,” and must do so.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said the Trump administration needs congressional authority to wage such attacks barring “exigent circumstances,” and didn’t have it.
“The Trump administration must explain itself to the American people and Congress immediately, provide an ironclad justification for this act of war, clearly define the national security objective and articulate a plan to avoid another costly, prolonged military quagmire in the Middle East,” he said.
After the U.S. military announced Sunday that three U.S. service personnel were killed and five others seriously wounded in the attacks, the demands for a clearer justification and new constraints on Trump only increased.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) said Sunday he is optimistic that Democrats will be unified in trying to pass the war powers resolution, and also that some Republicans will join them, given that the strikes have been unpopular among a portion of the MAGA base.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who partnered with Khanna to force the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, has said he will work with him again to push a congressional vote on war with Iran, which he said was “not ‘America First.’”
Benjamin Radd, a political scientist and senior fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations, said that whether or not Iran represented an “imminent” threat to the U.S. depends not just on its nuclear capabilities, but on its broader desire and ability to inflict pain on the U.S. and its allies — as was made clear to both the U.S. and Israel after the Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, which Iran praised.
“If you are Israel or the United States, that’s imminent,” he said.
What happens next, Radd said, will largely depend on whether remaining Iranian leaders stick to Khamenei’s hard-line policies, or decide to negotiate anew with the U.S. He expects they might do the latter, because “it’s a fundamentalist regime, it’s not a suicidal regime,” and it’s now clear that the U.S. and Israel have the capabilities to take out Iranian leaders, Iran has little ability to defend itself, and China and Russia are not rushing to its aid.
How the strikes are viewed moving forward may also depend on what those leaders decide to do next, said Kevan Harris, an associate professor of sociology who teaches courses on Iran and Middle East politics at the UCLA International Institute.
If the conflict remains relatively contained, it could become a political win for Trump, with questions about the justification falling away. But if it spirals out of control, such questions are likely to only grow, as occurred in Iraq when things started to deteriorate there, he said.
Israel and the U.S. are betting that the conflict will remain manageable, which could turn out to be true, Harris said, but “the problem with war is you never really know what might happen.”
On Sunday, Iran launched retaliatory attacks on Israel and the wider Gulf region. Trump said the campaign against Iran continued “unabated,” though he may be willing to negotiate with the nation’s new leaders. It was unclear when Congress might take up the war powers measure.
Politics
Video: Trump’s War of Choice With Iran
new video loaded: Trump’s War of Choice With Iran
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