Politics
What Past Polling Misses Can Tell Us About the 2024 Election
Every cycle, the polls diverge from the election results to some extent. It’s inevitable when pollsters can only make estimates about who will show up to vote, some people only make up their minds in the voting booth, and bombshells may drop late in the race.
Data from the past four decades shows that the polls do not always bias one party over the other, and that past performance can’t predict how the polls will do the next time around. The polls in the 2022 midterms, for example, were some of the most accurate in years.
To judge the accuracy of presidential polls, the charts in this article show averages that combine many polls into one estimate for each election. Between 1988 and 2020, the final national polling average was off by an average of 2.3 percentage points.
Some years were better than others: In 2008, the national polling average missed the final result for Barack Obama by less than one percentage point on average; in 1996, it overestimated the support for Bill Clinton by almost four points.
State-level polls haven’t performed quite as well. Since 2000, polls in close states have been off by an average of 3.1 points. In 2016 and 2020, nearly all of the state-level polling averages underestimated support for Mr. Trump, sometimes by a wide margin.
The state polling misses have been magnified in the last two presidential elections — two very close races that heightened the importance of the Electoral College. But the polls’ performance in those two years was not entirely unusual. A look at state polling misses since 2000 shows that polls of older elections did about as well as today’s polls.
State polls have missed in both directions over the years. But if pollsters underestimated Mr. Trump in the last two elections, are they doomed to do so again this year? Should you, as some poll watchers claim to do, mentally add a boost for Mr. Trump to any poll numbers you see?
Pollsters believe they have largely identified what caused the polling misses in 2016. A major culprit was the failure to account for voters’ education levels, according to a report from a professional organization of public pollsters. State level polls in particular that year overrepresented college-educated respondents and undercounted respondents without a college degree.
This was less of a problem in past elections, when vote choice did not cleave so sharply along educational lines. But in 2016 and thereafter, non-college-educated voters have largely supported Republicans, especially Mr. Trump.
By 2020, nearly all pollsters had begun accounting for education. But polls still underestimated Mr. Trump. This time, the cause of the error was less clear-cut. One theory, presented by a report evaluating 2020 polls, is that Trump supporters were less likely to respond to surveys. As a result, “even if you control for white non-college male, the ones that answer the survey are more Democratic than the ones who don’t,” said Chris Jackson, who heads U.S. public opinion research for Ipsos. Others have posited that Biden voters were more likely to stay at home during the pandemic, giving them more time and opportunity to respond to polls.
Yet another challenge that year: the record turnout. About a quarter of voters in 2020 had not voted in 2016, according to estimates by the Pew Research Center. And polling had indicated that any new 2020 voters would mostly be Biden supporters. In fact, they were divided between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, according to the Pew study.
So, what about this year? Polling in seven swing states is extremely close — in most of these states, Mr. Trump and Kamala Harris are essentially tied. While the polls in these states underestimated Mr. Trump’s support in the last two cycles, historically, they have a mixed track record, with misses on both the left and right, and some years better than others.
Politics
Marjorie Taylor Greene wants death penalty for migrant who allegedly set woman on fire on subway: 'Finish him'
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., is calling for the swift trial, conviction, and execution of the man charged in connection with the gruesome murder of a woman burned alive on a New York City subway.
The outspoken Republican took to social media on Tuesday to address the incident, in which Guatemalan national Sebastian Zapeta, 33, is accused of setting a woman on fire while on a train in Brooklyn.
“Death penalty, don’t waste money on a lengthy trial. Convict him and finish him. What he did is so incredibly evil,” Greene declared in a post on X. “I can’t watch the video anymore. And how it seems like no one tried to save her is beyond me. Maybe they did but it doesn’t seem like it.”
Zapeta faces charges of first- and second-degree murder, and first-degree arson, with a maximum sentence of life imprisonment with no parole.
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Greene is not the only member of Congress to weigh in on the case.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., also called for capital punishment.
“Death penalty,” she tweeted.
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Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., declared in a post on X, “A woman was intentionally lit on fire on the subway today. Democrats’ soft-on-crime policies do not work.”
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New York City Police Department Commissioner Jessica Tisch noted during remarks on Sunday that Zapeta allegedly “used what we believe to be a lighter to ignite the victim’s clothing, which became fully engulfed in a matter of seconds.” Assistant District Attorney Ari Rottenberg alleged in court on Tuesday that the suspect fanned the fire with a shirt.
Zapeta’s next court appearance is scheduled for December 27, according to online records.
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A U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) spokesperson said in a statement that Zapeta had been removed from the U.S. in 2018 and then re-entered the country illegally at some point “on an unknown date and location.”
Fox News’ Bill Melugin and the Associated Press contributed to this report
Politics
Editorial: Immigrants are California's lifeblood. They need support now more than ever
The United States has always been a nation of immigrants. And nowhere is that more true today than in California, where first-generation immigrants make up more than one-quarter of the population, more than in any other state.
More than half of California, and 62% of L.A. County, is either foreign-born or has at least one immigrant parent, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census data.
Immigrant communities are understandably scared and bracing for the worst when Donald Trump takes office next month. Deporting immigrants is at the very top of the president-elect’s 20-point agenda, which promises to “1. Seal the border and stop the migrant invasion” and “2. Carry out the largest deportation operation in American history.”
The incoming administration has pledged to use the military and mass detention camps to deport millions of immigrants in the country illegally along with U.S. citizens in their families, to remove the temporary legal status for millions of immigrants, to reinstate Trump’s Muslim ban and to end birthright citizenship. These and other policies, if carried out, would tear apart families and communities and harm the economy.
With these clouds on the horizon, it’s critically important to recognize the role immigrants play in our communities.
Immigrants have always been the lifeblood of the nation and a source of growth, diversity and innovation. There are more than 11 million first-generation immigrants in California from all backgrounds and walks of life, from the working and middle classes to the highest echelons of society. That includes powerful figures like L.A. Archbishop José Gomez, L.A. Unified Superintendent Alberto Carvalho, labor leader Ada Briceño and some of the world’s most influential business executives, such as Google’s Sundar Pichai and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, who are all immigrants.
As the state with the world’s fifth-largest economy, California would be among the hardest hit by the proposed policies. The people who could be swept up by mass deportation plans include teachers and coaches, child-care providers and home health and long-term care workers. California’s farms, which provide more than one-third of the nation’s vegetables and three-quarters of its fruits and nuts, are sustained largely by immigrant labor — at least half of the state’s farmworkers are undocumented — as are many other parts of the state’s economy such as construction and service work.
Aside from the economic damage, the suffering inflicted on immigrant families and their children from draconian policies would be immeasurable. Immigrant rights groups are now reactivating many of the assistance programs they put in place to deal with deportations during the first Trump and Obama administrations, including “know your rights” workshops that assist immigrants with legal responses and support. Some are creating programs that help parents make contingency plans for their children in case they are detained. Some are planning marches to rally support.
Local leaders, including the Los Angeles school board and the City Council and Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, have taken steps to reaffirm sanctuary policies, which restrict cooperation with federal officials on immigration enforcement. Local governments have boosted funding for legal services and made other commitments to defend immigrants and their families from the Trump administration’s proposed plans. But they may well have to do more to fight back against anti-immigration excesses and use their power to protect children and families.
Everyday people can also make a difference, even in small ways, by supporting immigrants’ rights groups, volunteering to help permanent residents apply for citizenship and calling their members of Congress to demand action to protect immigrants. They can show up at rallies, protests and local government meetings to stand up for immigrants and their families in the face of dehumanizing attacks.
If the incoming administration turns its plans into a reality, it will become clear to all — including to those who were drawn to the campaign promise of a crackdown on immigration — that what hurts immigrant communities will injure everyone. At that point, the responsibility will rest with all of us to speak up and defend the most American ideal of all: That this country was built by immigrants seeking better lives and they have made America stronger in every way.
Politics
It's official: Biden signs new law, designates bald eagle as 'national bird'
The White House announced on Christmas Eve President Joe Biden signed a bill officially designating the bald eagle as the national bird.
The bill, signed Monday after being passed unanimously by Congress, amends Title 36 of the United States Code, officially appointing the predator one of the country’s national symbols.
Congress passed the bill unanimously.
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The bald eagle, which has been featured on the Great Seal of the United States since 1782 and has its own holiday and protection act, was never technically assigned the title of “national bird.”
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It was, however, designated as the national emblem by the U.S. Congress in 1782, according to USA.gov. In addition to its appearance on the Great Seal, it is featured on official documents, the presidential flag, military insignia, and currency.
A document previously published by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to VA.gov improperly noted the bird as the national bird.
“Thank you to Senators Klobuchar, Lummis, Mullin and Smith, and Representatives Finstad, Craig and Emmer for their leadership,” the White House wrote in a statement Tuesday announcing the signing of the bill.
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