Politics

Polls say a conviction could cost Trump a fifth of his support. Should we believe them?

Published

8 months ago

May 30, 2024

Polls say a conviction could cost Trump a fifth of his support. Should we believe them?

WASHINGTON —

Polls have suggested for months that former President Trump could lose support among some Republicans if he is convicted of a crime. But if history is any guide, many of those supporters will stick with him.

A Manhattan jury on Wednesday began deliberating 34 counts of falsifying business records related to his attempt to influence the 2016 campaign by concealing a payment to porn actress Stormy Daniels.

What do the polls say?

An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted this month found that 16% of Trump’s supporters would reconsider their support while 4% would leave him altogether if he is convicted of a felony.

A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of seven swing states in January found 9% of Republican-leaning voters would be somewhat unwilling to vote for Trump if he is convicted of a crime, while 14% of those voters said they would be very unwilling to vote for him.

Will those numbers hold up?

Potential defectors in the ABC poll left themselves wiggle room by saying they would “reconsider” support rather than rule it out completely. And time usually helps Trump recapture his base after a scandal as he and other Republicans argue that the process is rigged or the alternative to Trump is worse.

Notice that, although the questions differed, his numbers look better in the May ABC poll than they did in the January Bloomberg poll, when 14% of Republicans were more willing to cast Trump off, saying they would be “very unwilling” to back him in the case of a conviction.

Will people who leave Trump switch to President Biden?

A USA Today/Suffolk poll in March found 14% of Trump supporters said they would leave him if he is convicted. But less than 1% would move to Biden. The biggest chunk, 7.5%, said they would move to a third party.

That could still help Biden indirectly because it would erode Trump’s margins if it holds up, according to David Paleologos, who directs the Suffolk poll.

How has Trump prepared his supporters for a conviction?

Trump has been seeding the ground with his supporters for a possible conviction for months, using two primary tools. First, he has summoned a chorus of party bigwigs to the courtroom, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, to parrot his protestations and signal loyalty at the highest reaches of the Republican Party, a technique he has used with prior scandals. Second, he has continually criticized the judge and prosecutor and, briefly, even the jury to undermine the process and manage expectations that he might be convicted.

“Mother Teresa could not beat these charges,” Trump said Wednesday.

The approach has helped Trump politically. Just 7% of Republicans think he is getting a fair trial, compared with 76% of Democrats, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll conducted this month.

Haven’t we seen this movie before?

Yes. Trump looked doomed after the “Access Hollywood” tape became public in October 2016, so much so that he is now being accused of concealing the payment to keep Daniels quiet about an alleged affair.

But party leaders and voters in his base were able to move on by concluding that it was locker room talk or that the alternative, Hillary Clinton, was a worse choice.

A similar dynamic played out after the Jan. 6 insurrection. Party leaders blamed Trump for what they characterized as a dark day in history in the immediate aftermath. But he escaped conviction in the Senate, with help from Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, and his support among GOP voters eventually rebounded.

More than half of Republicans (51%) disapproved strongly of the actions of those who forced their way into the Capitol in a January 2021 CBS/YouGov poll. Three years later, only 32% strongly disapproved of their actions, according to another CBS poll. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans also supported pardons for those convicted of crimes related to the insurrection in the 2024 poll.

So could a conviction affect the election?

Maybe. If Trump loses in court, Biden and the rest of the country can call him a convicted felon from now until November.

And even a small number of Republicans and undecided voters can swing an election that is expected to be extremely close. The USA Today/Suffolk poll found independent voters were divided evenly, 37% to 37%, on whether Trump’s trial is fair or not, leaving more room for at least some voters to be swayed by a verdict.

“In a vacuum, this verdict could continue right through the election because it will be a conviction. It will be historical,” said Paleologos.

But at some point, other issues like the economy could crowd it out and it could feel to some voters like old news, he said.

Politics

'Lying to the nation': Trump orbit slams Biden for taking credit for ceasefire deal

Published

37 minutes ago

January 16, 2025

Press Room

'Lying to the nation': Trump orbit slams Biden for taking credit for ceasefire deal

President Biden is ending his tenure in the White House on a “sad” note after “lying to the nation” and taking credit for a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas during his farewell address on Wednesday evening, a Trump transition official said.

“Joe Biden is going out sad. Lying to the nation trying to take credit for a deal that all parties credit President Trump for making happen. Biden has had well over a year to secure the release of these hostages and peace. He failed. Trump succeeded,” a Trump transition official told Fox News Digital on Wednesday evening.

War has raged in the Middle East since October of 2023, with Israel and Hamas coming to a ceasefire agreement on Wednesday that also ensured the release of hostages.

Biden delivered his final address to the nation on Wednesday evening, where he took a victory lap for the cease fire in his opening remarks.

BIDEN TAKES SOLE CREDIT FOR ISRAEL-HAMAS DEAL, WARNS OF ‘OLIGARCHY’ THREATENING DEMOCRACY IN FAREWELL SPEECH

Left: President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the latest developments in Syria from the Roosevelt Room of the White House on Dec. 8, 2024 in Washington, D.C.; Right: President-Elect Donald Trump reacts during his meeting with Prince William, Prince of Wales at the Embassy of the United Kingdom’s Residence on December 7, 2024 in Paris, France. (Left: Pete Marovich/Getty Images; Right: Oleg Nikishin/Getty Images)

“My fellow Americans, I’m speaking to you tonight from the Oval Office. Before I begin, let me speak to important news from earlier today. After eight months of nonstop negotiation, my administration – by my administration – a cease-fire and hostage deal has been reached by Israel and Hamas. The elements of which I laid out in great detail in May of this year,” Biden said.

President Joe Biden speaks from the Oval Office of the White House as he gives his farewell address Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2025, in Washington. (Mandel Ngan/Pool via AP)

“This plan was developed and negotiated by my team, and will be largely implemented by the incoming administration. That’s why I told my team to keep the incoming administration fully informed, because that’s how it should be, working together as Americans,” he continued.

PRESIDENT BIDEN RELEASES FAREWELL LETTER, SAYS IT’S BEEN ‘PRIVILEGE OF MY LIFE TO SERVE THIS NATION’

Donald Trump shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

Former US President Donald Trump (L) shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) as they pose for a photo during their meeting at Mar-a-Lago estate, in Palm Beach, Florida, United States on July 26, 2024. (Amos Ben-Gershom (GPO) / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Credit for reaching the agreement, however, was bolstered by the incoming Trump administration, according to sources who told Fox Digital that a recent meeting between Trump’s incoming Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly played a pivotal role in the deal.

FOX NEWS GETS AN INSIDE LOOK AT IDF’S WAR AGAINST HAMAS

Netanyahu also thanked Trump on Wednesday for “his assistance in advancing the release of the hostages.”

“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke this evening with US President-elect Donald Trump and thanked him for his assistance in advancing the release of the hostages and for helping Israel bring an end to the suffering of dozens of hostages and their families,” the official Prime Minister of Israel X account posted.

Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel, October 1, 2024. (REUTERS/Amir Cohen)

“The Prime Minister made it clear that he is committed to returning all of the hostages however he can, and commended the US President-elect for his remarks that the US would work with Israel to ensure that Gaza will never be a haven for terrorism.”

The X account added later: “Prime Minister Netanyahu then spoke with US President Joe Biden and thanked him as well for his assistance in advancing the hostages deal.”

ISRAEL-HAMAS CEASE-FIRE, HOSTAGE RELEASE DEAL REACHED: ‘AMERICANS WILL BE PART OF THAT’

When asked who the history books would remember for championing the ceasefire deal earlier Wednesday, Biden balked at the suggestion Trump and his team spearheaded the effort.

“Who in the history books gets credit for this, Mr. President, you or Trump?” Fox News’ Jacqui Heinrich asked Biden at Wednesday afternoon’s White House news conference.

“Is that a joke?” the president responded.

“Oh. Thank you,” Biden responded when Heinrich said it was not a joke, and then walked away.

Politics

Sen. Marco Rubio appears set to win confirmation as secretary of State

Published

1 hour ago

January 16, 2025

Press Room

Sen. Marco Rubio appears set to win confirmation as secretary of State

WASHINGTON — Once a bitter critic of President-elect Donald Trump, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida headed into his first Senate hearing Wednesday as nominee for secretary of State.

Rubio, with extensive experience on Capitol Hill and in foreign policy circles, appears to be the least controversial in Trump’s list of Cabinet picks, many of whom lack the credentials or background usually associated with their nominated jobs.

A foreign policy hawk — especially on China — Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, seemed likely to win easy bipartisan approval. On Wednesday, he faced the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on which he has served for 14 years.

If confirmed as expected, Rubio will be the first Latino to serve as America’s top diplomat.

In the past, Rubio largely hewed to long-standing Republican views on a multi-lateral approach to the world, embracing allies and united action. On Wednesday, he echoed Trump’s “America first” philosophy.

His State Department, Rubio testified, will be guided by a singular objective “to promote peace abroad, and security and prosperity here at home.”

“Placing our core national interests above all else is not isolationism,” Rubio said. “The postwar global order is not just obsolete; it is now a weapon being used against us.”

China, he said, is the “most potent” enemy the United States has ever faced, its “near peer” on many fronts, including technology, economy and diplomatic muscle.

“We’ve allowed them to get away with things …. and now we are dealing with the ramifications of that,” he said, advocating the U.S. must fortify its own industrial and supply chain capabilities to prevent “total dependence … from our security to our health” on the communist-led nation.

Rubio, who recently voted against an aid package for Ukraine, echoed Trump in saying Kyiv’s war with Russia had to come to an end. “There will have to be concessions made” by both Russia and Ukraine, he said. Many observers worry that Trump’s affinity for Russian President Vladimir Putin will lead to him demanding more sacrifice from Ukraine in any peace negotiation.

The hearing was interrupted by protesters; Rubio quipped that at least he gets bilingual demonstrators.

But overall, the mood among the senators was friendly and lacked the confrontations of the previous day’s hearing of Fox TV commentator Pete Hegseth, whom Trump has nominated to be secretary of Defense. Senators questioned Hegseth about his experience, drinking, position on women in combat roles and allegations of sexual assault, which he has denied.

Politics

How the Gaza Cease-Fire Deal United Teams Biden and Trump

Published

8 hours ago

January 15, 2025

Press Room

How the Gaza Cease-Fire Deal United Teams Biden and Trump

When President-elect Donald J. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Saturday to pressure him on a cease-fire deal in Gaza, there was someone on the speakerphone: Brett H. McGurk, President Biden’s longtime Mideast negotiator.

It was a vivid example of cooperation between two men representing bitter political rivals whose relationship has been best described as poisonous. Rarely if ever have teams of current and new presidents of different parties worked together at such a high-stakes moment, with the fate of American lives and the future of a devastating war hanging in the balance.

Both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden publicly claimed credit for the breakthrough.

“This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November,” Mr. Trump wrote on his social media site even before the deal was formally announced in the Middle East.

At the White House, Mr. Biden told reporters that his administration had worked tirelessly for months to convince the two sides to halt the fighting. He called it “one of the toughest negotiations I’ve ever experienced” and gave credit to “an extraordinary team of American diplomats who have worked nonstop for months to get this done.”

As he left the room, a reporter asked Mr. Biden, “Who gets credit for this, Mr. President, you or Trump?” Mr. Biden stopped, turned around and smiled.

“Is that a joke?” he asked.

But despite the tension between the current president and the next one, their representatives in the Middle East described a cooperative working relationship in the weeks since Election Day.

“Brett is in the lead,” Mr. Witkoff said last week at Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump’s club in Florida, describing the working relationship. That description was accurate by all accounts, even if it did not match what Mr. Trump had said moments before in one of several statements describing his negotiators as critical players.

In fact, Mr. Trump’s threat that “all hell” would break loose if no deal was reached before his inauguration on Monday might have helped motivate Hamas’s leadership to make final decisions. But people familiar with the negotiations said the announcement on Wednesday of a deal to temporarily end hostilities in Gaza was the result of months of work by Mr. McGurk in the Middle East, capped off by several weeks of carefully coordinated efforts by Mr. Witkoff.

Mr. Witkoff, 67, a blunt real estate investor from the Bronx, has largely planted himself in Qatar for the negotiations, knowing that whatever Mr. McGurk negotiated, he would have to execute. In fact, the 33 hostages who will be released under the cease-fire deal may not see freedom until Inauguration Day or after. The cease-fire would expire six weeks later, unless Phase 2 of the agreement kicks in.

By design, the goal was to send a unified message that the fighting must end and the hostages held by Hamas must be released. One person familiar with the negotiations, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the discussions, said Mr. McGurk was more involved in hammering out details of the agreement, while Mr. Witkoff’s role was to make clear that Mr. Trump wanted a deal by the time he is inaugurated.

The president-elect has also been setting some early parameters in his dealings with Mr. Netanyahu — who, for all his support of Mr. Trump in the election, was perceived by the Trump camp as dragging his feet on a deal. Mr. Witkoff flew to to Israel from Doha on Saturday — despite the Sabbath — to underscore the message that Mr. Netanyahu had to get on board.

Mr. Witkoff’s work, including the meeting with Mr. Netanyahu, helped Mr. McGurk and the Biden administration to put pressure on both sides during the negotiation, according to the person familiar with the talks.

It was not at all clear that such an arrangement would work in the days immediately after Mr. Trump won a second term.

He and Mr. Biden have barely talked in recent weeks, their already acrimonious relationship weighed down by the Trump team’s determination to clean out the White House career staff and the Biden team issuing last-minute orders to box in the new administration.

In his remarks on Wednesday, Mr. Biden acknowledged some level of cooperation and respect between their aides.

“This deal was developed and negotiated under my administration, but its terms will be implemented for the most part by the next administration,” Mr. Biden told reporters. “In these past few days, we’ve been speaking as one team.”

But he did not give any more credit to Mr. Trump for helping the effort. For his part, the president-elect said he was “thrilled” that the American hostages would be released, but he did not mention Mr. Biden or the work of the current administration.

“We have achieved so much without even being in the White House,” Mr. Trump wrote. “Just imagine all of the wonderful things that will happen when I return to the White House, and my Administration is fully confirmed, so they can secure more Victories for the United States!”

Both leaders left it to staff members to describe the way they had worked together on the Gaza negotiations.

A person familiar with that effort said a close partnership between Mr. McGurk and Mr. Witkoff was part of an “incredibly effective” process by which the Biden administration finalized a deal that the Trump administration would have to oversee.

That cooperation began soon after Mr. Trump won the election and named Mr. Witkoff to be his envoy to the region. Biden administration officials have said they believe the momentum for a deal began before that, when Mr. Biden helped broker a separate agreement to end fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. That isolated Hamas and helped persuade the group that a cease-fire was in its interests, according to Biden officials.