Politics
Over one month into government shutdown and no end in sight – but predictions run rampant
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It is said that everyone’s a critic.
But when it comes to the government shutdown, everyone’s an oracle.
Especially when trying to determine when it might end.
“[Democrats] are waiting to elect [Zohran] Mamdani, the communist, soon-to-be mayor of New York. And then I believe things will go back into business as normal,” said Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., on FOX Business. “If we don’t reopen this week, then I believe it’ll happen at some time shortly before Thanksgiving.”
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN KNOWLEDGE: GAMING OUT ITS POTENTIAL END
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., also offered her own prediction.
“I believe that this week could be the week,” said Capito on FOX Business.
But Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, wasn’t so sure.
“I don’t know what the predictions are based on,” said Cornyn on Fox. “We keep looking for some rational behavior on the part of the Democrats who shut down the government. But it was a dumb idea to start with. And it hasn’t gotten any better since.”
Everyone is now searching for a flicker of hope. A glimmer of reason as to why the government shutdown won’t deepen.
The Statue of Freedom atop the U.S. Capitol is seen on day 23 of the government shutdown, Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)
But all this week represents is another opportunity. There have been multiple inflection points along the way, but nothing has quite yielded the same opportunity to end the shutdown as this week.
Yes, emergency food aid for the nation’s neediest expired on Saturday. Air traffic is growing worse by the hour. Healthcare premiums formally spiked on Saturday – which is why Democrats balked at funding the government in the first place.
But none of those developments have truly forced the sides back to the negotiating table. That’s why some have settled on Tuesday’s elections as a potential turning point.
SHUTDOWN SEEN FROM THE PULPIT: INCHING ALONG ON A WING AND A PRAYER
Mamdani is the odds-on favorite to become the next mayor of New York City. Republicans are now projecting that the election is why the Democrats haven’t folded on government funding. They believe that certain election results – a win by the progressive Mamdani in New York coupled with what Republicans hope are losses by the moderate former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., running for Virginia governor and Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., running for New Jersey governor – will prod Democrats into action. Republicans believe such results will compel Democrats to see their party as out of touch.
“I hope the election tomorrow is a change. A sea change in all this,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. “I hope that after everybody votes and they go in their room and they make the calculation that, well, ‘maybe, maybe we won’t have to hold that line anymore.’”
Republicans know the shutdown will end eventually. But if it ends soon, they want to shape the narrative that “Democrats caved because of the election results.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., expressed hope that Tuesday’s elections will be “a change.” (Eric Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Consider that Republicans have been forecasting the shutdown’s end for five weeks now.
“The cracks started to appear in the Democrat base,” proclaimed Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., on October 1.
Republicans believed Democrats would cave in a matter of days once the shutdown started.
It never happened.
SENATE REPUBLICANS PLOT LONGER-TERM FUNDING BILL AS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN CONTINUES
The GOP then argued that Democrats were merely holding out until the “No Kings” rallies on October 19 concluded — that Democrats would have “shown they were fighting” by then.
“They won’t be able to reopen the government until after that rally,” forecast Johnson on Fox on October 10.
There was nothing of the sort.
Then the GOP amended its argument that Democrats were on the verge of giving in because federal workers were missing paychecks. Especially air traffic controllers.
“We’re getting to where the consequences of this are very real,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., on Fox on October 23.
That theory also fizzled.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., noted that “we’re getting to where the consequences of this are very real.” (Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images)
Republicans then pinned their hopes on the next missed paycheck, coupled with flight delays, expiring SNAP benefits, and spiking health premiums on November 1.
“The Democrats will collapse entirely,” predicted Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, on Fox over the weekend.
But nothing changed.
“We will not support a partisan, Republican spending bill that continues to gut the healthcare of the American people,” proclaimed House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. “That’s been our position. Week after week after week – and it will continue to be our position.”
Say what you will about the Democrats’ strategy. But they haven’t folded.
TRUMP’S ‘NUCLEAR’ DEMAND NOT LANDING FOR SENATE REPUBLICANS AMID SHUTDOWN
Keep in mind that Republicans have tried in vain to convince Senate Democrats since mid-September to accept a GOP spending plan which would only fund the government through November 21.
“It is now becoming close to a moot issue,” said Cornyn. “What are they going to do after, I don’t know.”
Thune proclaimed that the 21st is now a date which is “lost.”
Yours truly asked House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., what was the “drop-dead date” for Republicans to make another play call.
“With November 21st out there, it’s not a lot [of] time to resolve differences,” replied Scalise.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., was asked about the “drop-dead date” for another play call by his party. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
There’s now chatter about Republicans crafting another short-term spending bill through January.
“The longer sort of runway, the better,” said Thune. “I’m certainly listening to our colleagues and trying to figure out kind of where that landing spot would be.”
But there’s no guarantee either chamber could pass such a measure — especially if Democrats’ core demands remain unaddressed.
In his daily prayer to open the Senate session, Senate Chaplain Barry Black implied that the lawmakers needed help solving the crisis – simply because they were no closer to a resolution than they were in late September.
“Inspire our lawmakers to unite in putting out the fire of this government shutdown that has already burned far more than anticipated,” prayed Black.
It’s too unpredictable to make a sound prediction about when the shutdown will end. But if you predict enough things, you’ll eventually get something right.
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So how about this prediction:
The shutdown will end.
Eventually.
And that’s truly the only safe prediction anyone can make right now.
Politics
House Republicans push Johnson to go to war with Senate over SAVE Act
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Several House Republicans are pushing Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to go to war with the Senate GOP over an election security bill that has little chance of passing the upper chamber under current circumstances.
House GOP leaders convened a lawmaker-only call on Sunday in the wake of a massive military operation against Iran launched by the U.S. and Israel.
After leaders briefed House Republicans on how the chamber would respond to the ongoing conflict — including a vote on ending Democrats’ weeks-long government shutdown targeting the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) — Fox News Digital was told that several lawmakers raised concerns about the Senate not yet taking up the Safeguarding American Voter Eligiblity (SAVE America) Act. Among other provisions, the act would require voters in federal elections to produce valid ID and proof of citizenship.
Rep. Derrick Van Orden, R-Wis., was among those pushing the House to reject any bills from the Senate until the measure was taken up, telling Johnson according to multiple sources on the call, “If we don’t get this done, or at least show that we’ve got some backbone, we’re done. The midterms are over.”
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., pauses for questions from reporters as he arrives for an early closed-door Republican Conference meeting at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)
At least three other House Republicans shared similar concerns. Sources on the call said Rep. Brandon Gill, R-Texas, argued that GOP voters were “not enthused” heading into November and that “the single biggest thing” to turn that around would be forcing the Senate to pass the SAVE America Act.
The SAVE America Act passed the House last month with support from all Republicans and just one Democrat, Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas.
JEFFRIES ACCUSES REPUBLICANS OF ‘VOTER SUPPRESSION’ OVER BILL REQUIRING VOTER ID, PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP
Republicans have pointed out on multiple occasions that voter ID measures have bipartisan support across multiple public polls and surveys. But Democrats have dismissed the legislation as an attempt at voter suppression ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune speaks at a press conference with other members of Senate Republican leadership following a policy luncheon in Washington, D.C. on Oct. 28, 2025. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The legislation would require 60 votes in the Senate to break filibuster, which it’s likely not to get given Democrats’ near-uniform opposition. But House Republicans have pressured Senate Majority Leader John Thune to use a mechanism known as a standing filibuster to circumvent that — which Thune has signaled opposition to, given the vast amount of time it would take up in the Senate and potential unintended consequences in the amendment process.
It also comes as Congress grapples with the fallout from the strikes on Iran and the need to ensure safety for the U.S. domestically and for service members abroad, both of which will require close coordination between the two chambers.
Johnson told Republicans several times on the Sunday call that he was privately pressuring Thune on the bill but was wary of creating a public rift with his fellow GOP leader, sources said.
HARDLINE CONSERVATIVES DOUBLE DOWN TO SAVE THE SAVE ACT
“If we’re going to go to war against our own party in the Senate, there may be implications to that,” Johnson said at one point, according to people on the call. “So we want to be thoughtful and careful.”
Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, talks with a guest during a “Only Citizens Vote Bus Tour” rally in Upper Senate Park to urge Congress to pass the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act on Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
At another point in the call, sources said Rep. Andrew Clyde, R-Ga., suggested pairing a coming vote on DHS funding with the SAVE America Act in order to force the Senate to take it up.
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But both Johnson and House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Andrew Garbarino, R-N.Y., were hesitant about such a move given the enhanced threat environment in the wake of the U.S. operation in Iran.
Both spoke out in favor of the SAVE America Act, people told Fox News Digital, but warned the current situation merited leaving the DHS funding bill on its own in a bid to end the partial shutdown, so the department could fully function as a national security shield.
Politics
Trump justifies Iran attack as Congress and others raise objections
According to President Trump, the United States attacked Iran because the Islamic Republic posed “imminent threats” to the U.S. and its allies, including through its use of terrorist proxies and continued pursuit of nuclear weapons.
“Its menacing activities directly endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas and our allies throughout the world,” he said in a recorded statement Saturday.
According to leading Democrats in Congress, Trump’s justification is questionable, especially given his claims of having “completely obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities in separate U.S. bombings last June.
“Everything I have heard from the administration before and after these strikes on Iran confirms this is a war of choice with no strategic endgame,” said Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee and part of a small group of congressional leaders — the Gang of Eight — who were briefed on the operation by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
That divide is bound to remain an issue politically heading into this year’s midterm elections, and could be a liability for Republicans — especially considering that some in the “America First” wing of the MAGA base were raising their own objections, citing Trump’s 2024 campaign pledges to extricate the U.S. from foreign wars, not start new ones.
The debate echoed a similar if less immediate one around President George W. Bush’s decision to go to war in Iraq following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, also based on claims that “weapons of mass destruction” posed an immediate threat. Those claims were later disproved by multiple findings that Iraq had no such arsenal, fueling recriminations from both political parties for years.
The latest divide also intensified unease over Congress ceding its wartime powers to the White House, which for years has assumed sweeping authority to attack foreign adversaries without direct congressional input in the name of addressing terrorism or preventing immediate harm to the nation or its troops.
Even prior to the weekend bombings, Democrats including Sen. Adam Schiff of California were pushing Congress to pass a resolution barring the Trump administration from attacking Iran without explicit congressional authorization.
“President Trump must come to Congress before using military force unless absolutely necessary to defend the United States from an imminent attack,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), a member of the armed services and foreign relations committees, said in a statement Thursday.
In justifying the daylight strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei just two days later, Trump accused the Iranian government of having “waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder” for nearly half a century — including through attacks on U.S. military assets and commercial shipping vessels abroad — and of having “armed, trained and funded terrorist militias” in multiple countries, including Hezbollah and Hamas.
Trump said that after the U.S. bombed Iran last summer, it had warned Tehran “never to resume” its pursuit of nuclear weapons. “Instead, they attempted to rebuild their nuclear program and to continue developing long-range missiles that can now threaten our very good friends and allies in Europe, our troops stationed overseas, and could soon reach the American homeland,” he said.
Other Republican leaders largely backed the president.
“The United States did not start this conflict, but we will finish it. If you kill or threaten Americans anywhere in the world — as Iran has — then we will hunt you down, and we will kill you,” said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
“Every president has talked about the threat posed by the Iranian regime. President Trump is the one with the courage to take bold, decisive action,” said Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi.
While Iran’s coordination with and sponsorship of groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas are well known, Trump’s claims about Tehran’s ongoing development of nuclear weapons systems are less established — and the administration has provided little evidence to back them up.
Democrats seized on that lack of fresh intelligence in their responses to the attacks, contrasting Trump’s latest statements about imminent threats with his assertion after last year’s bombings that the U.S. had all but eliminated Iran’s nuclear aspirations.
“Let’s be clear: The Iranian regime is horrible. But I have seen no imminent threat to the United States that would justify putting American troops in harm’s way,” said Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee and a member of the Gang of Eight. “What is the motivation here? Is it Iran’s nuclear program? Their missiles? Regime change?”
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a statement that the Trump administration “has not provided Congress and the American people with critical details about the scope and immediacy of the threat,” and must do so.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said the Trump administration needs congressional authority to wage such attacks barring “exigent circumstances,” and didn’t have it.
“The Trump administration must explain itself to the American people and Congress immediately, provide an ironclad justification for this act of war, clearly define the national security objective and articulate a plan to avoid another costly, prolonged military quagmire in the Middle East,” he said.
After the U.S. military announced Sunday that three U.S. service personnel were killed and five others seriously wounded in the attacks, the demands for a clearer justification and new constraints on Trump only increased.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) said Sunday he is optimistic that Democrats will be unified in trying to pass the war powers resolution, and also that some Republicans will join them, given that the strikes have been unpopular among a portion of the MAGA base.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who partnered with Khanna to force the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, has said he will work with him again to push a congressional vote on war with Iran, which he said was “not ‘America First.’”
Benjamin Radd, a political scientist and senior fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations, said that whether or not Iran represented an “imminent” threat to the U.S. depends not just on its nuclear capabilities, but on its broader desire and ability to inflict pain on the U.S. and its allies — as was made clear to both the U.S. and Israel after the Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, which Iran praised.
“If you are Israel or the United States, that’s imminent,” he said.
What happens next, Radd said, will largely depend on whether remaining Iranian leaders stick to Khamenei’s hard-line policies, or decide to negotiate anew with the U.S. He expects they might do the latter, because “it’s a fundamentalist regime, it’s not a suicidal regime,” and it’s now clear that the U.S. and Israel have the capabilities to take out Iranian leaders, Iran has little ability to defend itself, and China and Russia are not rushing to its aid.
How the strikes are viewed moving forward may also depend on what those leaders decide to do next, said Kevan Harris, an associate professor of sociology who teaches courses on Iran and Middle East politics at the UCLA International Institute.
If the conflict remains relatively contained, it could become a political win for Trump, with questions about the justification falling away. But if it spirals out of control, such questions are likely to only grow, as occurred in Iraq when things started to deteriorate there, he said.
Israel and the U.S. are betting that the conflict will remain manageable, which could turn out to be true, Harris said, but “the problem with war is you never really know what might happen.”
On Sunday, Iran launched retaliatory attacks on Israel and the wider Gulf region. Trump said the campaign against Iran continued “unabated,” though he may be willing to negotiate with the nation’s new leaders. It was unclear when Congress might take up the war powers measure.
Politics
Video: Trump’s War of Choice With Iran
new video loaded: Trump’s War of Choice With Iran
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