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Over one month into government shutdown and no end in sight – but predictions run rampant

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Over one month into government shutdown and no end in sight – but predictions run rampant

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It is said that everyone’s a critic.

But when it comes to the government shutdown, everyone’s an oracle.

Especially when trying to determine when it might end.

“[Democrats] are waiting to elect [Zohran] Mamdani, the communist, soon-to-be mayor of New York. And then I believe things will go back into business as normal,” said Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., on FOX Business. “If we don’t reopen this week, then I believe it’ll happen at some time shortly before Thanksgiving.”

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GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN KNOWLEDGE: GAMING OUT ITS POTENTIAL END

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., also offered her own prediction.

“I believe that this week could be the week,” said Capito on FOX Business.

But Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, wasn’t so sure.

“I don’t know what the predictions are based on,” said Cornyn on Fox. “We keep looking for some rational behavior on the part of the Democrats who shut down the government. But it was a dumb idea to start with. And it hasn’t gotten any better since.”

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Everyone is now searching for a flicker of hope. A glimmer of reason as to why the government shutdown won’t deepen.

The Statue of Freedom atop the U.S. Capitol is seen on day 23 of the government shutdown, Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)

But all this week represents is another opportunity. There have been multiple inflection points along the way, but nothing has quite yielded the same opportunity to end the shutdown as this week.

Yes, emergency food aid for the nation’s neediest expired on Saturday. Air traffic is growing worse by the hour. Healthcare premiums formally spiked on Saturday – which is why Democrats balked at funding the government in the first place.

But none of those developments have truly forced the sides back to the negotiating table. That’s why some have settled on Tuesday’s elections as a potential turning point.

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SHUTDOWN SEEN FROM THE PULPIT: INCHING ALONG ON A WING AND A PRAYER

Mamdani is the odds-on favorite to become the next mayor of New York City. Republicans are now projecting that the election is why the Democrats haven’t folded on government funding. They believe that certain election results – a win by the progressive Mamdani in New York coupled with what Republicans hope are losses by the moderate former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., running for Virginia governor and Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., running for New Jersey governor – will prod Democrats into action. Republicans believe such results will compel Democrats to see their party as out of touch.

“I hope the election tomorrow is a change. A sea change in all this,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. “I hope that after everybody votes and they go in their room and they make the calculation that, well, ‘maybe, maybe we won’t have to hold that line anymore.’”

Republicans know the shutdown will end eventually. But if it ends soon, they want to shape the narrative that “Democrats caved because of the election results.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., expressed hope that Tuesday’s elections will be “a change.” (Eric Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

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Consider that Republicans have been forecasting the shutdown’s end for five weeks now.

“The cracks started to appear in the Democrat base,” proclaimed Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., on October 1.

Republicans believed Democrats would cave in a matter of days once the shutdown started.

It never happened.

SENATE REPUBLICANS PLOT LONGER-TERM FUNDING BILL AS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN CONTINUES

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The GOP then argued that Democrats were merely holding out until the “No Kings” rallies on October 19 concluded — that Democrats would have “shown they were fighting” by then.

“They won’t be able to reopen the government until after that rally,” forecast Johnson on Fox on October 10.

There was nothing of the sort.

Then the GOP amended its argument that Democrats were on the verge of giving in because federal workers were missing paychecks. Especially air traffic controllers.

“We’re getting to where the consequences of this are very real,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., on Fox on October 23.

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That theory also fizzled.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., noted that “we’re getting to where the consequences of this are very real.” (Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images)

Republicans then pinned their hopes on the next missed paycheck, coupled with flight delays, expiring SNAP benefits, and spiking health premiums on November 1.

“The Democrats will collapse entirely,” predicted Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, on Fox over the weekend.

But nothing changed.

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“We will not support a partisan, Republican spending bill that continues to gut the healthcare of the American people,” proclaimed House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. “That’s been our position. Week after week after week – and it will continue to be our position.” 

Say what you will about the Democrats’ strategy. But they haven’t folded.

TRUMP’S ‘NUCLEAR’ DEMAND NOT LANDING FOR SENATE REPUBLICANS AMID SHUTDOWN

Keep in mind that Republicans have tried in vain to convince Senate Democrats since mid-September to accept a GOP spending plan which would only fund the government through November 21.

“It is now becoming close to a moot issue,” said Cornyn. “What are they going to do after, I don’t know.”

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Thune proclaimed that the 21st is now a date which is “lost.”

Yours truly asked House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., what was the “drop-dead date” for Republicans to make another play call.

“With November 21st out there, it’s not a lot [of] time to resolve differences,” replied Scalise.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., was asked about the “drop-dead date” for another play call by his party. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

There’s now chatter about Republicans crafting another short-term spending bill through January.

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“The longer sort of runway, the better,” said Thune. “I’m certainly listening to our colleagues and trying to figure out kind of where that landing spot would be.”

But there’s no guarantee either chamber could pass such a measure — especially if Democrats’ core demands remain unaddressed.

In his daily prayer to open the Senate session, Senate Chaplain Barry Black implied that the lawmakers needed help solving the crisis – simply because they were no closer to a resolution than they were in late September.

“Inspire our lawmakers to unite in putting out the fire of this government shutdown that has already burned far more than anticipated,” prayed Black.

It’s too unpredictable to make a sound prediction about when the shutdown will end. But if you predict enough things, you’ll eventually get something right.

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So how about this prediction:

The shutdown will end.

Eventually.

And that’s truly the only safe prediction anyone can make right now.

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Trump, Sheinbaum extend mutual invitations for visits after Washington meeting

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Trump, Sheinbaum extend mutual invitations for visits after Washington meeting

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Friday that she and President Trump had a “cordial” hourlong meeting in Washington that ended with both leaders extending invitations to visit each other’s country.

“We’ll arrange a date later,” Sheinbaum told reporters outside the Mexican Cultural Institute.

The meeting was the first time the two had met face to face and followed months of clashes between the United States and Mexico over contentious issues such as trade, immigration and how to combat drug trafficking.

But on Friday, the two world leaders were brought together by soccer.

Sheinbaum was in Washington to attend the FIFA World Cup 2026 draw at the Kennedy Center, alongside Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. The U.S., Mexico and Canada are co-hosting the soccer tournament, which begins in June.

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In a social media post, Sheinbaum said the three leaders talked about “the great opportunity that the 2026 FIFA World Cup represents for the three countries and about the good relationships we have.”

“We agreed to continue working together on trade issue with our teams,” she added.

She later reiterated to reporters that the meeting had been “very positive,” and that she impressed upon Trump that Mexico is “extraordinary” country. She said she personally invited him to visit Mexico, and that he extended an invitation to come back to Washington.

Asked if Trump asked anything of her, she said he had “nothing in particular.”

After months of friction between the two countries, the meeting on Friday could break the ice and set the stage for policy negotiations as both presidents navigate pressures from their constituencies.

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Since the start of his second term in January, Trump has threatened to impose large trade tariffs on Mexico, the United States’ largest trade partner — but so far, Sheinbaum has been able to stave off many tariffs.

Trump and his team have also been floating the prospect of U.S. strikes on suspected criminals and drug laboratories in Mexico. But Sheinbaum has insisted she would not allow the U.S. military to fight drug cartels within its nation’s borders.

The ongoing negotiations come as Mexicans’ attitudes toward Trump and the United States have continued to sour. In contrast, Mexicans continue to see their own government’s management of the border positively, according to a Pew Research Center report published in July.

The upbeat aftermath of Friday’s meeting belied profound differences of opinion between the leaders of two nations that have an almost 2,000-mile border and share deep economic, security and cultural ties.

The two North American presidents could hardly be more different: Sheinbaum is a scientist and life-long leftist activist who maintains a low-key demeanor; Trump is a real-estate scion who embraces right-wing talking points and craves being the center of attention.

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Sheinbaum has had to walk a thin line as she has fought off Trump’s repeated threats to impose punishing tariffs on imports from Mexico, a nation heavily dependent on cross-border trade with the United States.

She has also rejected Trump’s suggestions that U.S. forces may intervene unilaterally in Mexico to attack drug cartels. She has maintained her mantra of “cooperation, not subordination,” even as Trump has mused about striking gangs in Mexico.

In various remarks, Trump has lauded Sheinbaum as “wonderful” and “brave,” while also declaring that she rejected U.S. military aid to fight Mexican cartels because she is is “scared to death” of the cartels.

Sheinbaum has assailed U.S. strikes on alleged drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean and Pacific that have left dozens dead. She has also declared Mexico’s opposition to U.S. military intervention in Venezuela or anywhere else in Latin America.

Repeatedly, the Mexican president has insisted that her country would be “nobody’s piñata.”

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In his career, Trump has long used Mexico and Mexicans as a political punching bag, catering to anti-immigrant sentiment in the United States. Trump kicked off his 2016 presidential campaign declaring that Mexican immigrants were criminals, drug-runners and and “rapists” — though he acknowledged there were some “good people” among them — and repeatedly pledged to build “a big beautiful wall” along the U.S.-Mexico border that Mexico would pay for. It didn’t.

After Friday’s meeting, Ronald Johnson, the U.S. ambassador to Mexico, said on X that the encounter “reaffirmed a historic partnership based on results,” adding: “Their dialogue advances a high-level agenda focused on cooperation, security, and prosperity.”

Staff Writers Ceballos reported from Washington and McDonnell from Mexico City.

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Video: The Impact of Trump’s Slipping Approval Rating

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Video: The Impact of Trump’s Slipping Approval Rating

new video loaded: The Impact of Trump’s Slipping Approval Rating

After months of holding steady, President Trump‘s approval rating has dipped over the past several weeks, according to a New York Times analysis of public polling.

By Tyler Pager, Claire Hogan, Whitney Shefte and Stephanie Swart

December 7, 2025

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Politics

Congress faces holiday crunch as health care fix collides with shrinking calendar

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Congress faces holiday crunch as health care fix collides with shrinking calendar

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Congress has been back after the week-plus Thanksgiving Day break. And days are slipping off the calendar as lawmakers struggle to assemble a plan to address health care or defray the cost of spiking premiums.

The deadline is the end of the calendar year. But Fox is told that the insurance companies just need action by Jan. 15.

Still, that doesn’t give Congress much time to act. And, depending on the metric, the House is only scheduled to meet for nine days for the rest of 2025.

 The Senate is not as clear, but, unofficially, the Senate will only meet for nine more days as well.

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GOP WRESTLES WITH OBAMACARE FIX AS TRUMP LOOMS OVER SUBSIDY FIGHT

The House is scheduled to be in Tuesday through Friday. Then Dec. 15 through Dec. 19.

The Senate meets Monday. But it’s unclear if the Senate would meet Friday.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) speaks during a press conference on healthcare with other House Democrats, on the East steps of the U.S. Capitol on the 15th day of the government shutdown in Washington, Oct. 15, 2025.  (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The Senate also meets Dec. 15 through at least Dec. 18. But anything beyond that is a little sketchy.

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CONGRESS RACES AGAINST 3-WEEK DEADLINE TO TACKLE MASSIVE YEAR-END LEGISLATIVE AGENDA

However, this is where things get interesting.

The House originally was not scheduled to meet Dec. 19. But that date was added to the schedule a few weeks ago.

Some would interpret that added date as “code” for the possibility that the House may need to be in town the weekend of Dec. 20 to Dec. 21, and perhaps beyond. There is a possibility that the House could add days to the calendar around that period because Christmas Day isn’t until that Thursday.

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So, in theory, the House has a few extra days at its disposal to address issues before Dec.25. It would be a different matter if Christmas itself fell on say a Monday or Tuesday. 

So let me fillet the meaning of this.

Developing a coalition to support such a package — without bipartisan support and full-throated support from President Donald Trump — likely stymies any health care package. (Alex Brandon/AP)

House Republicans are aiming to release a health care plan in the coming days. But developing a coalition to support such a package — without bipartisan support and full-throated support from President Donald Trump — likely stymies any health care package.

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Keep in mind, Republicans have talked about an alternative plan to Obamacare since 2009, but have never passed anything. So, it’s truly hard to believe they can pass anything in the next 26 days.

The Senate is expected to take votes related to competing health care plans late next week. The GOP offering is still unclear.

Senate Democrats just unveiled a three-year extension of the current Obamacare subsidies. Any bill needs 60 yeas. So expect the Democrats’ plan to die immediately.

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Frankly, it’s likely that the failure of both plans in the Senate makes everyone get serious. Often in the Senate, something must first fail until the sides get serious about a compromise and begin to hustle.

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That takes us back to the calendar.

Thus, with the deadline of skyrocketing health care premiums, it’s possible that Congress races up to and/or through the holidays to pass some sort of a health care fix before the end of 2025. 

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That’s why that weekend and days between Dec. 20 and Dec. 23, which are not on the congressional calendar, could be prime targets for Congress to work to pass something.

HOUSE GOP SPLITS OVER OBAMACARE FIX AS COSTS POISED TO SPIKE FOR MILLIONS

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That’s to say nothing of Congress returning after Christmas and trying to approve something before or around the New Year.

 Both bodies are technically slated to return to session Jan. 5.

And don’t forget, that the Senate passed its version of the original Obamacare plan just after dawn on Christmas Eve morning, 2009.

Discussions around rising costs for healthcare, primarily surrounding Obamacare, have divided Republicans and they contemplate whether to reform or replace the system. (By Lea Suzuki/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images; Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

BIPARTISAN DEAL ON OBAMACARE SUBSIDIES FADES AS REPUBLICANS PUSH HSA PLAN

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Also lurking in the background: spending bills to fund the government.

Government funding expires at 11:59:59 p.m. Eastern Time on January 30. Nine of the 12 annual spending bills for Fiscal Year 2026 remain unfinished. The House expects to tackle a few bills before the end of the year.

But if Congress fails to address anything on health care before the end of January, the probability of another government shutdown increases exponentially.

So, I bid you “tidings of comfort and joy.”

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