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Opinion: Economists see a 'spectacular' economy. Most voters don't. Can Biden turn that around?

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Opinion: Economists see a 'spectacular' economy. Most voters don't. Can Biden turn that around?

If President Biden’s reelection hinged on the state of the economy, he’d be a good bet, or at least a better one. Instead, it’s voters’ perception of the economy that matters. Which is a big reason the president is struggling as his campaign against presumptive rival Donald Trump gets underway.

Rarely if ever in the modern history of polling has there been such a disconnect between how the economy is faring and how many Americans think it’s doing. That’s partly because of our political polarization. Media coverage of the economy, and of the Republicans who falsely blather about it unchallenged, isn’t helping. We journalists have to do better: Stop letting South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, for instance, get away unchecked with saying Biden “has destroyed our economy,” as happened on a recent Sunday talk show.

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Jackie Calmes

Jackie Calmes brings a critical eye to the national political scene. She has decades of experience covering the White House and Congress.

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But the real onus is on Biden. He must persuade the persuadables among skeptical voters. He’s trying, but he needs help from the Democratic bench, and fast.

Separate news late last week — about two government reports, a stock market record and a national poll — underscored how divorced economic reality and perception have become.

On Thursday came the report that the economy had grown 3.1% in 2023 — faster than the gross domestic product’s average growth in the three pre-pandemic years under Trump. Word followed on Friday that inflation continued to cool in December, to levels last seen before the pandemic. The inflation report stoked investors’ confidence that the Federal Reserve would indeed cut interest rates; the S&P 500 surged for yet another record trading day.

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Economic growth. Back-to-normal inflation. Lower interest rates. A bull market. It all confirms a trend that’s been apparent for months, along with low unemployment, more job creation than under Trump and real wage increases outpacing inflation. Meanwhile, talk of an imminent recession is so 2022.

The superlatives from giddy economists read like the promo blurbs on movie ads: “Just a perfect report” — Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics. “Stunning and spectacular” — Diane Swonk, KPMG. “Hard to imagine how things could look better” — UBS’ Brian Rose. “This year has been like Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots” — Dan North, Allianz Trade Americas.

Responding to Biden’s celebratory statement — “Wages, wealth, and employment are higher now than they were before the pandemic” (read: when Trump was president) — even Trump’s former economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, conceded on his Fox Business show, “I would be bragging about it, too.”

From most Americans, however, all you get is a Bronx cheer.

Amid the good economic reports came poll results from the Pew Research Center and the headline said it all: “Americans More Upbeat on the Economy; Biden’s Job Rating Remains Low.” And “upbeat”? That’s relative. Yes, Pew found a 9-point increase since last April in the percentage of adults who rate the economy as excellent or good — up to a whopping 28%. The increase came among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Still, less than half of Democrats, 44%, had positive views of the economy. And just 13% of Republicans said it was excellent or good.

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Many Americans’ views of the economy have long tended to be colored by whether the White House occupant is someone of their favored party. But that bias is more evident than ever in these more polarized times.

It’s become so pronounced among Republicans, two Stanford University economists found in November, that traditional models to gauge consumers’ sentiment using fundamental economic data (inflation, stocks, unemployment, consumption) “have broken down” since 2020. Consumer sentiment should be about 13 points higher on the feel-good scale, economics professor Neale Mahoney and doctoral candidate Ryan Cummings concluded.

With the oft-lying Trump calling the economy “so fragile,” and wishing for “a crash,” many in his party will never be convinced the economy is actually in good shape, no matter their own financial comfort. (“Things were better with [Trump] in office,” a Republican caucus-goer in Iowa told the New York Times, adding, “I have been pretty lucky, though.”)

But demoralized Democrats and the swing voters who decide elections in battleground states can be swayed. Granted, you can’t convince voters that the economy is good if they aren’t feeling it, but to some degree most Americans are, polls and data show. The early signs of rosier — and more realistic — consumer sentiment, are reflected in this month’s double-digit rise tracked by the much-followed University of Michigan index. And the effect of Bidenomics’ long-term public investments, like the bridge-replacement project the president visited on the Wisconsin-Minnesota border Thursday, has yet to be realized.

The president has to hope the gains stick, as many economists predict, and that voters give him props.

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President Obama, facing reelection in 2012, told people privately that he was determined to win because “I’ll be damned” if someone else was going to take credit for the growth his administration had set in motion after the Great Recession. Surely Obama’s vice president remembers such talk. Maybe that helps explain why Biden is similarly driven to run again, even when many Democrats wish he’d retire: He’ll be damned if he’s going to let Trump, or anyone else, reap the rewards at all the ribbon-cuttings ahead.

But first Biden and his fellow Democrats have to convince more voters that his policies actually are working — that the U.S. economy really is as good as the data show.

@jackiekcalmes

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Video: President Fires Noem as Homeland Security Secretary

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Video: President Fires Noem as Homeland Security Secretary

new video loaded: President Fires Noem as Homeland Security Secretary

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President Fires Noem as Homeland Security Secretary

President Trump fired Kristi Noem, his embattled homeland security secretary, on Thursday and announced his plans to replace her with Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma.

“The fact that you can’t admit to a mistake which looks like under investigation is going to prove that Ms. Good and Mr. Pretti probably should not have been shot in the face and in the back. Law enforcement needs to learn from that. You don’t protect them by not looking after the facts.” “Our greatness calls people to us for a chance to prosper, to live how they choose, to become part of something special. Anyone who searches for freedom can always find a home here. But that freedom is a precious thing, and we defend it vigorously. You crossed the border illegally — we’ll find you. Break our laws — we’ll punish you.” “Did you bid out those service contracts?” “Yes they did. They went out to a competitive bid.” “I’m asking you — sorry to interrupt — but the president approved ahead of time you spending $220 million running TV ads across the country in which you are featured prominently?” “Yes, sir. We went through the legal processes. Did it correctly —” Did the president know you were going to do this?” “Yes.” “I’m more excited about just ready to get started. There’s a lot of work we can do to get the Department of Homeland Security working for the American people.”

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President Trump fired Kristi Noem, his embattled homeland security secretary, on Thursday and announced his plans to replace her with Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma.

By Jackeline Luna

March 5, 2026

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DOJ continues Biden autopen probe despite former president unlikely to face charges

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DOJ continues Biden autopen probe despite former president unlikely to face charges

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The Department of Justice (DOJ) is continuing its investigation into former President Joe Biden’s use of an autopen in the final months of his administration — focusing on pardons and commutations — though a senior official said Biden is unlikely to face criminal exposure.

A senior DOJ official told Fox News the autopen investigation is ongoing and not closed, adding investigators are reviewing clemency actions taken in the final months of the Biden administration.

The official also pointed out, however, that the use of an autopen by a sitting president is “established law.”

The issue under review is whether the autopen was used in violation of the law, specifically, whether Biden personally approved each name included on pardon and commutation lists.

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A framed portrait shows former President Joe Biden’s signature and an autopen along “The Presidential Walk of Fame” outside the Oval Office of the White House.  (Andrew Harnick/Getty Images)

“These types of cases are tough. Executive privilege issues come into play,” the official said.

What is also clear, the official indicated, is that the target of any potential prosecution would not likely be Biden.

“It’s hard to imagine how [Biden] could be criminally liable for pardon power,” the senior DOJ official said.

BIDEN’S AUTOPEN PARDONS DISTURBED DOJ BRASS, DOCS SHOW, RAISING QUESTIONS WHETHER THEY ARE LEGALLY BINDING

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The use of the autopen by former President Joe Biden remains under investigation. (AP Photo)

The official noted that one reason the former president would be unlikely to face charges stems from a 2024 Supreme Court ruling that originally involved current President Donald Trump but would also apply to Biden.

“We conclude that under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of Presidential power requires that a former President have some immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts during his tenure in office,” the Supreme Court ruled in Trump v. United States in 2024. 

“At least with respect to the President’s exercise of his core constitutional powers, this immunity must be absolute.”

Sources familiar with the matter told Fox News Digital that U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s team continues to review the Biden White House’s reliance on an autopen, contradicting a recent New York Times report that indicated the investigation had been paused.

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DOJ SIGNALS IT’S STILL DIGGING INTO BIDEN AUTOPEN USE DESPITE REPORTS PROBE FIZZLED

President Donald Trump has pushed for consequences for former President Joe Biden’s alleged use of the autopen. (Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP Photo)

Trump has pushed for consequences over the autopen controversy, alleging on social media that aides acted unlawfully in its use and raising the prospect of perjury charges against Biden.

Biden has rejected those claims, saying in a statement last year he personally directed the decisions in question.

“Let me be clear: I made the decisions during my presidency,” Biden said. “I made the decisions about the pardons, executive orders, legislation and proclamations. Any suggestion that I didn’t is ridiculous and false.”

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The House Oversight Committee has homed in on Biden’s clemency actions, including five controversial pardons for family members in the final days of his presidency, citing what it described as a lack of “contemporaneous documentation” confirming that Biden directly ordered the pardons.

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The committee asked the DOJ to investigate “all of former President Biden’s executive actions, particularly clemency actions, to assess whether legal action must be taken to void any action that the former president did not, in fact, take himself.”

Fox News Digital’s Ashley Oliver contributed to this report.

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Top Biden officials questioned and criticized how his team issued pardons, used autopen: report
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Anxiety grows among California Democrats as gubernatorial candidates rebuff calls to drop out

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Anxiety grows among California Democrats as gubernatorial candidates rebuff calls to drop out

Despite a plea from the head of the California Democratic Party for underperforming candidates to drop out of the governor’s race, all but one of the party’s top hopefuls spurned the request.

Party leaders fear the growing possibility that the crowded field will split the Democratic electorate in the state’s June top-two primary election and result in two Republicans advancing to the November ballot, ensuring a Republican governor being elected for the first time since 2006.

His advice largely unheeded, state party Chairman Rusty Hicks on Thursday said the fate of a Democratic victory now rests squarely on the gubernatorial candidates who flouted him.

“The candidates for Governor now have a chance to showcase a viable path to win,” Hicks said in a statement Thursday.

Eight top Democratic candidates filed the official paperwork to appear on the June ballot after Hicks released a letter on Tuesday urging those “who cannot show meaningful progress towards winning” to drop out. Friday is the deadline to file to appear on the primary election ballot. On March 21, the secretary of state’s office will formally announce who will appear on the June ballot.

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“It sounded like someone who has his head in the sand,” former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said of Hicks’ open letter. “[Most] of us filed within 24 hours of getting that letter. It created some press but not much else. It didn’t impact [most] of the candidates and it certainly didn’t impact my candidacy.”

Democratic strategist Elizabeth Ashford said it was appropriate for Hicks and other Democratic leaders to make a public plea as opposed to keeping such discussions solely behind closed doors.

But the response showed the limited power of the modern-day party bosses.

“It’s definitely not Tammany Hall,” said Ashford, referring to the storied Democratic political machine that had a grip on New York City politics for nearly a century. “The party and Rusty are influential and they are helpful and that is their role. I don’t think anyone would be comfortable with outright public strong-arming of specific candidates.”

Ashford, who worked for former Govs. Jerry Brown and Arnold Schwarzenegger, along with former Vice President Kamala Harris when she served as state attorney general, added that the minimal power of the state GOP is likely a factor in the dynamics of Democrats’ decision to stay in the race. Democratic registered voters outnumber Republicans by almost a 2-to-1 margin in the state, and Democrats control every statewide elected office and hold supermajorities in both chambers of the California Legislature.

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“If there were a strong viable opposition that existed, if the Republican Party was actually relevant in California, I think that would sort of force greater unity amongst Democrats,” she said.

Just one of the nine major Democrats did heed the party chair’s message. Ian Calderon, a former Los Angeles-area Assemblyman who consistently polled near the bottom of the field, withdrew from the race and endorsed Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Dublin) on Thursday.

Candidates cannot withdraw their name from the ballot once they officially file to run for office, leading to some fears that even if other candidates drop out of the race, a crowded primary ballot could still split California’s liberal votes.

“I’m disappointed most of them will be on the ballot,” said Lorena Gonzalez, the head of the California Federation of Labor Unions, which will announce whether it endorses in the governor’s race on March 16. But “I do still think you can have people drop out of the race or become viable. I think that there are candidates who know viability is a real thing they have to show in coming weeks” before ballots start being mailed to voters.

Jodi Hicks, chief executive and president of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, said she is “still worried” about the prospect of two Republicans winning the top two spots in the June primary, shutting Democrats out of any chance of winning the governor’s office in November.

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“I didn’t have any specifics of who I wanted to do what,” she said. “I’m just very, very concerned and the stakes are really high right now and seem to be getting worse by the day.”

Republican candidate Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, said he is “confident that I’ll be in the top two” along with a Democratic candidate. “I find it very difficult to believe that the Democratic Party will just surrender California and allow two Republicans to be in the top two.”

Hilton made the comments Thursday after a gubernatorial forum in Sacramento hosted by the California Assn. of Realtors focused on housing and homeownership. Villaraigosa, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former Rep. Katie Porter also attended. Swalwell, who is currently in Washington, joined the panel virtually.

During the panel, candidates were in broad agreement about the need to reduce barriers and costs in order to build more housing in California, where the median single-family home costs more than $820,000. Many also endorsed proposals to disincentivize private investment firms from buying up homes as well as a $25-billion bond proposed by former Sen. Bob Hertzberg to help first-time homebuyers afford a down payment.

“This really isn’t a debate because we’re agreeing so much with each other,” Hilton said at one point during the event.

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That political alignment on one of the most pressing issues facing California may explain why voters are having such a difficult time deciding who to support.

A recent poll of the Public Policy Institute of California found that the five candidates topping the crowded field were within 4 percentage points of one another: Porter, Swalwell, Hilton, Democratic hedge fund founder Tom Steyer and Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Earlier polls had Hilton and Bianco leading the field, though many voters remained undecided.

Some candidates took issue with Hicks’ push to cull the field, noting that most of the lower-polling candidates he asked to drop out are people of color.

“Our political system is rigged, corrupted by the political elites, the wealthy and well connected,” state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, who is Black and Latino, said in a video posted on social media in response to the open letter. “The California Democratic Party is essentially telling every person of color in the race for Governor to drop out.”

Villaraigosa argued that enough voters remain undecided that it was too early for quality candidates to call it quits.

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“Most people don’t even know who’s in the race,” said Villaraigosa. “It’s premature to be thinking about getting out of the race. I certainly am not considering it and I feel no pressure.”

Aside from the opinion polls, other indicators on who may emerge from the pack a candidates are slowly emerging.

Though it wasn’t enough to win the party’s endorsement, Swalwell won support from 24% of delegates at the state Democratic convention last month, the most of any party candidate.

While spending is no guarantee of success, Steyer has donated $47.4 million of his own wealth to his campaign. Mahan, who recently entered the race and is supported by Silicon Valley leaders, has quickly raised millions of dollars, as have two independent expenditures committees backing his bid.

Ashford said part of candidates’ decisions to remain in the race could have been driven by their lengthy political careers, as well as Democrats’ crushing November redistricting victory.

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“In several cases, these are people who have won statewide office,” she said. “It’s tough to feel like there may not be a sequel to that.”

Nixon reported from Sacramento and Mehta from Los Angeles.

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