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Montana Senate race, which could determine majority, seeing 'intense ground game operation': NRSC Chairman

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Montana Senate race, which could determine majority, seeing 'intense ground game operation': NRSC Chairman

EXCLUSIVE: Montana’s U.S. Senate race has one of the most “intense” ground games of the 2024 cycle with the chamber majority hanging in the balance, according to the chairman of the Republican campaign arm. 

Sen. Steve Daines is spearheading Republican efforts to take control of the Senate as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), with a heightened emphasis on ousting a three-term Democrat in red state Montana.

Daines exclusively told Fox News Digital the Montana Senate race pitting Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy against three-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester features one of the strongest ground game efforts from the GOP he has witnessed in the state.

“I’ve watched a lot of Montana Senate races, House races, governor races over the years. This is the most intense ground game operation and the most far-reaching that I’ve seen in many election cycles,” Daines told Fox News Digital. “It’s a door-to-door type of persuasion, as well as a lot of phoning, a lot of digital. So, it’s a really strong ground game, knowing that I think well-run ground games win elections.”

COLLEGE ATHLETES ARE BEING OFFERED THOUSANDS TO ENDORSE MONTANA SENATOR’S RE-ELECTION BID THROUGH NIL DEALS

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Montana Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy, left, and Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., listen as former President Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, speaks at the Brick Breeden Fieldhouse at Montana State University Aug. 9, 2024, in Bozeman, Mont. (Michael Ciaglo)

The New York Times recently reported that Sheehy is leading Tester by eight percentage points, but Daines emphasized that while the Republican candidate remains ahead in several polls, they are going to continue energizing their get-out-the-vote efforts until Election Day.

“It’s a very aggressive, active time with just a little over 2½ weeks until the election focused on voter turnout and ground game operations, as well as continuing to have the sufficient resources,” Daines said. “Get the message out to those few undecided voters that are left, whether it’s through television, radio, digital mail. So, we’re not letting up. You keep working hard all the way until Election Day.”

The Montana race figures to be the most expensive Senate race on a per-vote basis, which Daines attributes to its high stakes.

“This is what secures the majority for the Republicans and takes the gavel out of Chuck Schumer’s hands,” he told Fox. “And that’s why there’s so much focused attention on this race.”

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Senators Jon Tester, D-Mont., left, and Steve Daines, R-Mont., film a message outside Dirksen Building on the importance of getting a COVID-19 vaccine April 27, 2021.  (Tom Williams)

In early September, two political forecasters shifted the Montana race from a toss-up to “leans Republican,” along with AARP and the NYT surveys showing the Republican leading the race against the three-term Democrat.

A visit to Bozeman by former President Trump in August, who endorsed Sheehy earlier this year, contributed to the recent polling shift in the Republican candidate’s favor, according to the chairman.

KEY SENATOR REPORTEDLY BEHIND HARRIS’ RISE IN POWER WITHHOLDS HIS ENDORSEMENT FOR PRESIDENT

The electorate in Montana has shifted toward the GOP over the years, and Tester remains the only Democrat to hold a statewide office in the state.

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“I think what’s happened is Montana, in terms of their voting and their thinking, has moved a bit more. But the biggest problem for the Democrats is they’ve moved so far left. This is not the same Democrat Party that I grew up with here in Montana,” Daines said of the red wave in the state.

Tim Sheehy, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senator, speaks at a rally supporting former President Trump, the Republican presidential candidate in Bozeman, Mont., Aug. 9, 2024.  (Natalie Behring)

Daines also highlighted the national implications of the Big Sky Senate race.

“This race is bigger than Montana, because this race indeed will decide the future of the United States Supreme Court, the future of the circuit courts,” Daines said. “There’s also the Trump tax cuts that expire in ’25, which would be a massive tax increase for Montana’s small businesses. 

“Jon Tester voted against that tax bill. I voted for it. Tim Sheehy would vote for that. So, there’s just a lot at stake, not only for Montana but for the nation. And, so, we here in Montana will probably be able to flip the majority control of the U.S. Senate with Tim Sheehy’s victory. And that has significant implications, not only for the great state of Montana, but for our great country.” 

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There are 34 Senate seats up for grabs this cycle, and Democrats are protecting 23 of them. The Senate majority stands at 51-50 with Democrats in the majority, meaning just a one seat flip could shift the majority to the Republican Party.

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Appeals court declares DC ban on certain gun magazines unconstitutional

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Appeals court declares DC ban on certain gun magazines unconstitutional

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An appeals court struck down a local law in the District of Columbia that banned gun magazines containing more than 10 bullets, describing the measure as unconstitutional. 

The ruling Thursday from the District of Columbia Court of Appeals also reversed the conviction of Tyree Benson, who was taken into custody in 2022 for being in possession of a handgun with a magazine that could contain 30 bullets, according to The New York Times. 

“Magazines capable of holding more than 10 rounds of ammunition are ubiquitous in our country, numbering in the hundreds of millions, accounting for about half of the magazines in the hands of our citizenry, and they come standard with the most popular firearms sold in America today,” Judge Joshua Deahl wrote on behalf of the two-judge majority in the three-judge panel.   

“Because these magazines are arms in common and ubiquitous use by law-abiding citizens across this country, we agree with Benson and the United States that the District’s outright ban on them violates the Second Amendment,” he added.

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A salesperson holds a high capacity magazine for an AR-15 rifle at a store in Orem, Utah, in March 2021.  (George Frey/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

“This appeal presents a Second Amendment challenge to the District’s ban on firearm magazines capable of holding ‘more than 10 rounds of ammunition.’ Appellant Tyree Benson argues that ban contravenes the Second Amendment so that his conviction for violating it should be vacated,” Deahl also wrote. “The United States, which prosecuted Benson in the underlying case and defended the ban’s constitutionality in the initial round of appellate briefing, now concedes that this ban violates the Second Amendment. The District of Columbia, which is also a party to this appeal, continues to defend the constitutionality of its ban.” 

“We therefore reverse Benson’s conviction for violating the District’s magazine capacity ban. And because Benson could not have registered, procured a license to carry, or lawfully possessed ammunition for his firearm given that it was equipped with a magazine capable of holding more than 10 rounds, we likewise reverse his convictions for possession of an unregistered firearm, carrying a pistol without a license, and unlawful possession of ammunition,” Deahl said.

Chief Judge Anna Blackburne-Rigsby, the judge who dissented, wrote that, “The majority bases its common usage analysis on ownership statistics that show only that magazines holding 11, 15, or 17 rounds of ammunition are in common use.” 

GUN RIGHTS ON PRIVATE PROPERTY DEBATED AT SUPREME COURT

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Magazines at Norm’s Gun & Ammo shop in Biddeford, Maine, in April 2013. From left, the first two are high capacity magazines for handguns, an AK-47 magazine, an AR-15 magazine and an SKS magazine.   (Shawn Patrick Ouellette/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images)

“The majority, however, fails to contend with the reality that these statistics do not support the conclusion that the particularly lethal 30-round magazine, such as the one Mr. Benson possessed here, is in common use for self-defense. It simply is not,” she added.

The District of Columbia can now appeal the decision to the Supreme Court, or ask the local appeals court to take another look at the ruling with a larger panel of judges, according to the Times. 

High-capacity rifle magazines are removed from a display at Freddie Bear Sports in January 2023 in Tinley Park, Illinois. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

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The newspaper also reported that in a previous case, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia upheld the constitutionality of the local law surrounding gun magazine sizes. It’s unclear how the two rulings will interact. 

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Contributor: The stars align for Democrats in Texas. Trump is helping them

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Contributor: The stars align for Democrats in Texas. Trump is helping them

If Democrats expect to flip a U.S. Senate seat in Texas, they’ll need all the stars to align. This almost never happens, because politics has a way of scrambling the constellations. But on Tuesday, the first star blinked on.

I’m referring to state Rep. James Talarico’s victory over Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary. Most political prognosticators agree that Talarico, an eloquent young Democrat who speaks openly about his Christian faith, is their best hope in a red state that Donald Trump won by 14 points.

The second star was Crockett’s conciliatory concession — far from a foregone conclusion after a nasty primary — in which she pledged to “do my part,” adding that “Texas is primed to turn blue, and we must remain united because this is bigger than any one person.”

The third star — a vulnerable Republican opponent — has not yet appeared over the Texas sky, although forecasters say it might.

Most observers agree that scandal-plagued Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton would be beatable in the general election, while incumbent Sen. John Cornyn would present a much tougher challenge. Cornyn is the kind of steady, conventional politician who tends to win elections, and so, of course, modern voters are extremely suspicious of him.

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In the GOP primary on Tuesday, Cornyn’s 42% share of the vote edged out Paxton by about a point. Unfortunately for Republicans, neither candidate garnered enough votes to avoid a May 26 runoff election.

Conventional wisdom suggests that when a majority of Republican voters choose someone other than the incumbent in the first round of voting, an even greater majority will inevitably break toward the challenger in the runoff. If that happens, Paxton would become the nominee, and Democrats would get their third star to align.

Even better for Democrats — a fourth star, so to speak — would be for this protracted runoff to become a “knife fight,” as one Texas Republican predicted, in which Paxton staggers out of the fight as the battered GOP nominee.

The only problem is that Republicans can see these stars aligning, too.

And while the Texas Senate seat matters a lot on its own, it matters even more in the context of nationwide midterm elections, in which a Texas win would help Democrats take back the Senate.

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Enter the cavalry — or, more accurately, President Trump, who is now entering a second war in the span of a week, this one a civil war in the Lone Star State.

The day after the primary, Trump announced that he would be “making my Endorsement soon, and will be asking the candidate that I don’t Endorse to immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE!”

Reports suggest Trump may endorse Cornyn in order to save the seat for Republicans. But who knows? Trump is famously unpredictable. And it’s likely he admires Paxton’s ability to survive scandals that would have caused most normal politicians to curl up in the fetal position. As they say, “game recognizes game.”

Whomever he backs, conventional wisdom also says Trump should make his endorsement “soon,” as he promised. That would save Republicans a lot of time and money. But Trump currently has enormous leverage. Right now, people are coming to him, pleading for his support.

Do you think he wants to resolve that situation quickly?

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Me neither.

With Trump, you never know what you’re going to get. In 2021, he helped torpedo Republican Senate candidates David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler in Georgia, handing Democrats control of the Senate. The following year he backed football legend Herschel Walker in another Georgia Senate race, which did not exactly work out great. Democrat Raphael Warnock won and holds that seat, though Walker is now ambassador to the Bahamas so that’s something.

This is to say: Trump’s political assistance does not always assist.

It’s unclear whether Trump’s endorsement would be dispositive — and whether he could muscle the other Republican out of the primary race.

Paxton, for example, initially vowed to stay in the race, no matter what. (He later suggested he would “consider” dropping out if the Senate passes the SAVE America Act, a bill to require proof of citizenship to vote.)

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There’s also this: Trump’s endorsements tend to either be made out of vengeance or to pad the totals of an already inevitable winner, so his track record is probably overrated.

Case in point: While most of his endorsed candidates won their Texas elections, his endorsed candidate for agriculture commissioner lost reelection. And according to the Texas Tribune, “at least three Trump-endorsed candidates for Congress were headed to runoffs, one of them in a distant second place.”

Another issue is that Cornyn needs more than a perfunctory endorsement: He needs a clear, full-throated endorsement.

In a 2022 Missouri Senate race, Trump endorsed “ERIC,” which was awkward because two candidates named Eric were running.

More recently, he endorsed two rival candidates in the same 2026 Arizona gubernatorial race — like betting on both teams in the Super Bowl.

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This is all to say that the only thing standing between Texas Democrats and a rare celestial alignment may be the whims of the Republican Party’s one and only star.

Sure, establishment Republicans can beg Trump to quickly step in and settle the race, and maybe he will. But it’s entirely possible the president will find a way to blow up his party’s chances for holding the U.S. Senate — and there’s nothing they can do to stop him.

When you’re a star, they let you do it.

Matt K. Lewis is the author of “Filthy Rich Politicians” and “Too Dumb to Fail.”

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Video: President Fires Noem as Homeland Security Secretary

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Video: President Fires Noem as Homeland Security Secretary

new video loaded: President Fires Noem as Homeland Security Secretary

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President Fires Noem as Homeland Security Secretary

President Trump fired Kristi Noem, his embattled homeland security secretary, on Thursday and announced his plans to replace her with Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma.

“The fact that you can’t admit to a mistake which looks like under investigation is going to prove that Ms. Good and Mr. Pretti probably should not have been shot in the face and in the back. Law enforcement needs to learn from that. You don’t protect them by not looking after the facts.” “Our greatness calls people to us for a chance to prosper, to live how they choose, to become part of something special. Anyone who searches for freedom can always find a home here. But that freedom is a precious thing, and we defend it vigorously. You crossed the border illegally — we’ll find you. Break our laws — we’ll punish you.” “Did you bid out those service contracts?” “Yes they did. They went out to a competitive bid.” “I’m asking you — sorry to interrupt — but the president approved ahead of time you spending $220 million running TV ads across the country in which you are featured prominently?” “Yes, sir. We went through the legal processes. Did it correctly —” Did the president know you were going to do this?” “Yes.” “I’m more excited about just ready to get started. There’s a lot of work we can do to get the Department of Homeland Security working for the American people.”

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President Trump fired Kristi Noem, his embattled homeland security secretary, on Thursday and announced his plans to replace her with Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma.

By Jackeline Luna

March 5, 2026

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