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Michigan becomes a top GOP Senate target as Mike Rogers ties with Dem opponent among older voters

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Michigan becomes a top GOP Senate target as Mike Rogers ties with Dem opponent among older voters

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The Senate race in Michigan has emerged as a much bigger Republican pickup opportunity than originally imagined as former Rep. Mike Rogers recently tied his Democrat opponent with a key group, according to a new poll. 

Michigan Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe was not initially expecting the Republican traction that Rogers is now seeing in the state due to Michigan’s recent history of electing primarily Democrat senators. 

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GOP operatives have agreed that the Michigan race’s status has come as a welcome surprise. 

“It seems like Michigan may be a little bit more competitive than Ohio,” a senior Republican strategist told Fox News Digital, remarking that races in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio have been traditionally understood as the best Republican opportunities this cycle. 

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The Michigan Senate race between Elissa Slotkin and Mike Rogers is more competitive than initially predicted. (Associated Press)

“What I’ve seen shows that Michigan is extremely competitive,” he explained. 

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The seat is currently occupied by outgoing Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich.

In a new AARP-commissioned Michigan poll, Rogers is tied with Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., among voters over 50 years old, 46%-46%. With all voters, the race remains tight, with Slotkin slightly ahead, 47% to 44%. 

Bob Ward, a partner with the bipartisan polling team Fabrizio Ward, said it is “definitely a battleground Senate race.”

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Mike Rogers gestures as he speaks on Day 2 of the Republican National Convention

Rogers is endorsed by former President Trump. (REUTERS/Jeenah Moon)

Slotkin led Rogers by just one point among registered voters, 42% to 41%, in a separate poll from the New York Times and Siena College in early August. 

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Rogers has demonstrated his race as one of the closest this cycle so far and operatives have pointed to several reasons.

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U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin

Slotkin is currently a House representative. (Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)

Cabel Roe cited the Michigan race as evidence of the importance of candidate quality when it comes to winning elections. He said Rogers, a former congressman and chair of the House Intel committee, is a better prospect than some of the other Republicans running in tight Senate races across the country. 

Further, he noted the fact that Rogers isn’t taking on an incumbent like many of the other Republicans. Because of this, Slotkin faces many of the same challenges in her campaign for the Senate seat that Rogers does. 

One aspect that Cabel Roe said may have been overlooked in considering the competitiveness of Michigan is the relatively large Muslim constituency and their disapproval of the Biden-Harris administration’s actions in the war in Gaza between Israel and terrorist group Hamas. 

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Protesters at Harris' Detroit rally

Anti-Israel protesters disrupt Vice President Harris during her campaign rally at Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport in Romulus, Mich., on Aug. 7, 2024. (Adam J. Dewey/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Cabel Roe doesn’t expect disaffected Muslim voters to turn to Republicans but said they could choose not to vote at all, hurting Democrats. 

Last month, nonpartisan political handicapper the Cook Political Report shifted the Michigan Senate race from “Lean Democratic” to “Toss Up,” reflecting the election’s competitive nature. Also in the category are Senate races in Montana and Ohio. 

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

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Blackface photo shakes up toss-up House district in NY

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Blackface photo shakes up toss-up House district in NY

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A close House race in New York was rocked by an October surprise when photos surfaced of the incumbent Republican congressman in blackface as part of a Halloween costume years ago.

Rep. Michael Lawler, R-N.Y., who is white, is pictured dressed like pop sensation Michael Jackson, complete with bronzer to darken his face in an October 2006 photo reported by the New York Times. Lawler does not dispute the photo’s authenticity and has issued an apology to anyone who has taken offense, though he said it was not his intention to dress in blackface.

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“As has been well-documented – most recently by the Daily Beast – I was a so-called ‘Super Fan’ of Michael Jackson, so much so that I was mentioned by name in his biography for my outspoken support of him and the Jackson Family.  I loved Michael’s music, was awed by him as a performer, and by his impact on pop culture,” Lawler said in a statement. “One of my greatest memories is attending his concert at Madison Square Garden before his untimely death.  

“When attempting to imitate Michael’s legendary dance moves at a college Halloween party eighteen years ago, the ugly practice of black face was the furthest thing from my mind. Let me be clear, this is not that. Rather, my costume was intended as the sincerest form of flattery, a genuine homage to one of my childhood idols since I was a little kid trying to moonwalk through my mom’s kitchen.  

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Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., talks with reporters after a meeting of the House Republican Conference in the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, June 4, 2024.  (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

“I am a student of history and for anyone who takes offense to the photo, I am sorry.  All you can do is live and learn, and I appreciate everyone’s grace along the way,” he said. 

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The 38-year-old Lawler, a moderate first-term lawmaker from the Hudson Valley, is seen as a rising star in the GOP conference who is running for re-election in a suburban swing district. His Democratic opponent in New York’s 17th Congressional District is former Rep. Mondaire Jones, a Black man. The Jones campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Michael Lawler dressed in blackface as Michael Jackson

Photos show Rep. Michael Lawler pictured in October 2005, dressed as pop star Michael Jackson complete with bronzer to darken his face. Lawler did not dispute the authenticity of the photos.  (Published by the New York Times)

The race is one of 22 toss-up contests that may well determine which party controls the House of Representatives next year, according to Fox News’ Power Rankings.  

Lawler is not the first politician to be wrapped up in recent controversy over a costume that resembled blackface. Former Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, a Democrat, faced calls to resign after a photo from his medical school yearbook surfaced which pictured men in Ku Klux Klan robes and blackface. Northam denied he was in the photo but admitted he once used shoe polish to darken his face for a dance contest in the 1980s in which he too dressed like Jackson.

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Mondaire Jones

Lawler is up against former Rep. Mondaire Jones. (Getty Images)

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also faced controversy in 2019 when photos surfaced of him wearing blackface in 2001. The prime minister said in an interview after the fact that he could not give a definitive number on how many times he had worn blackface. 

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Lawler was photographed in his Jackson costume in New York City when he was a sophomore at Manhattan College, now Manhattan University, a Catholic school in the Bronx where only three percent of the student population is Black, according to the New York Times. 

Lawler, who was class valedictorian in 2009, was well-known for his love of Michael Jackson, the paper reported.

When Lawler was a high school senior in 2005, he flew from New York to California to attend parts Jackson’s criminal trial. The musician had faced allegations of molesting a 13-year-old boy at his Neverland Ranch, though Jackson was eventually acquitted. 

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Michael Jackson performance

Michael Jackson performing “Thriller” on stage at Madison Square Garden as part of his Bad Tour in 1988.  (George De Sota (ID 5073478)/Redferns)

Jackson biographer J. Randy Taraborrelli recounted in his book how he helped get Lawler into the courtroom, according to the Daily Beast. Taraborrelli wrote in “Michael Jackson: The Magic, The Madness, The Whole Story” that the teen had been “so disgusted” by testimony against Jackson “that he couldn’t help but mutter something derogatory under his breath.” 

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In Taraborrelli’s account, Lawler was overheard by court officials and “tossed right out of the courtroom.” 

The photos in question were posted to Facebook and depict Lawler dressed in a jacket reminiscent of the one Jackson wore in the “Thriller” music video. 

The New York Times cited a person familiar with the costume who said that Lawler had used bronzer borrowed from female classmates to darken his skin. 

Lawler’s 2022 victory was one of several Republican victories in crucial New York districts, despite the state’s status as reliably blue overall. The 17th includes stretches through four suburban counties outside of New York City: Dutchess, Putnam, Rockland and Westchester.

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Fox News Digital’s Emma Colton and Emily Robertson contributed to this report.

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Opinion: Why President Biden hasn't been able to end Israel's nearly year-old war in Gaza

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Opinion: Why President Biden hasn't been able to end Israel's nearly year-old war in Gaza

As the world prepares to mark the first anniversary of Hamas’ Oct. 7 terrorist attack and the ensuing war is set to drag into a second year with intense fighting on another front, many Americans are wondering why President Biden has been unable to end the conflict.

Contrary to plenty of commentary, it certainly has not been for lack of trying.

Since the war broke out, Biden has visited Israel and had a host of conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken has made at least 10 trips to Israel. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III has also made multiple visits to the country since Oct. 7 and had seemingly countless talks with his counterpart, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. This is all on top of lower-ranking U.S. officials’ continuous efforts to engage with Israel.

And yet for all the time and effort the Biden administration has expended, it has failed to broker a cease-fire between Israel and the militant group Hamas. Meanwhile, the threat of a wider war loomed again this week as Iran launched a missile attack on Israel in retaliation for the escalation of its conflict with the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Biden administration is hardly alone in its struggle to find diplomatic common ground in the Middle East. Ever since the Oslo accords some three decades ago, a series of American administrations have tried and failed to broker peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

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At the same time, although Americans may want wars to be short and relatively restrained, they rarely are. The unfortunate battlefield reality is that any war against a group such as Hamas — with its estimated 30,000 fighters and hundreds of miles of tunnels embedded in one of the most densely populated places on Earth — was going to be a long, bloody slog. There is very little that anyone — even an American president — can do to change that.

Biden’s critics counter that the administration could put more pressure on Netanyahu to force a cease-fire. They note that Israel receives billions of dollars’ worth of American military aid and depends on American diplomatic cover. They say that provides sufficient leverage to force Netanyahu’s hand. But does it?

In practice, the United States often has less influence over its allies than one might think. Historically, economic sanctions have a poor track record of forcing major concessions, particularly when existential security matters are at stake — which, in Israel’s case, they are. Indeed, threats to sanction the hard-right elements of Netanyahu’s coalition have yet to produce any sort of moderation. At the same time, the International Criminal Court’s announcement that it would seek arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant produced what few other policies could: It united Israel’s fractured political spectrum around the current government.

Even if U.S. pressure were effective enough to motivate the Netanyahu government to try to end the war, it still might not succeed. Ending the war, after all, would require the cooperation of both Israel and Hamas — and more specifically Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who shows no signs of budging.

Sinwar could unilaterally declare a cease-fire, release all the remaining Israeli hostages and deny Israel one of its core justifications for the war. But Hamas seems intent on executing hostages and otherwise doubling down on the hostilities. Presumably, despite all the devastation and suffering in Gaza, Sinwar on some level still believes that he is winning.

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Even if America had successfully secured a bilateral cease-fire, it would be unlikely to produce a lasting peace. Indeed, all the structural and political reasons that have prevented peace for decades remain.

Because Israel would have to free hundreds of militants serving life sentences for murder in exchange for the release of remaining hostages, Hamas’ ranks would swell during a cease-fire. Eventually the battered organization would rebuild and strike again. Moreover, regional spoilers — most notably Iran — view a continuing proxy conflict with Israel as being in their strategic interest.

A year in, the Biden administration’s diplomatic offensive has yielded some modest results. The rate of casualties — even as reported by Gaza’s Hamas-controlled Health Ministry — has slowed. Aid to Gaza’s civilians, albeit insufficient, is flowing. More than three-fifths of the hostages taken on Oct. 7 have either been freed or recovered, although 97 have not. And, most important, a full-blown, regional Middle East war — widely feared at several junctures over the last year — has been averted, at least for the moment.

All that is admittedly cold comfort to the Palestinians caught in the crossfire, the Israeli hostages who remain in Gaza and the growing displaced populations of southern Lebanon and northern Israel.

In the wake of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, Americans have become far more aware of the bounds of what military power can achieve. But other tools of national power, including diplomacy, have their limits too. Outside mediators can’t end this war, particularly if the combatants themselves don’t want to stop fighting.

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Raphael S. Cohen is the director of the strategy and doctrine program at Rand Project Air Force and of the national security program at the Pardee Rand Graduate School.

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Trump to headline NRA event in pivotal swing state two weeks before Election Day

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Trump to headline NRA event in pivotal swing state two weeks before Election Day

Former President Trump will headline the National Rifle Association’s (NRA) Defend the 2nd event in Savannah, Georgia, Oct. 22, the organization announced Friday morning.

“This election is a pivotal one for America’s gun owners. Kamala Harris and her far-left allies have big plans to erode Second Amendment protections,” NRA Vice President and CEO Doug Hamlin said in a statement. 

“Donald J. Trump has proven himself a fighter for Americans’ right to keep and bear arms. We are excited to have him speak at our Defend the 2nd event and to support his return to the White House in January.”

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Former President Trump speaks during the National Rifle Association Convention May 18, 2024, in Dallas. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

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Earlier this year, the NRA endorsed Trump in his presidential campaign. Trump also spoke at the NRA’s convention in May. 

The NRA has been ramping up its attacks on certain Democratic candidates who are softer on gun owners’ rights. Ohio is the second state the NRA Political Victory Fund has targeted this election cycle. Last month, the gun group launched a major radio campaign against vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana.

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Donald Trump at NRA event podium, seen in wide profile shot

Former President Trump speaks during the NRA ILA Leadership Forum at the National Rifle Association Annual Meeting in May. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

“When it comes to preserving and strengthening our constitutional rights in America, the stakes could not be higher in this presidential election,” the NRA’s news release said. “No matter your reason for owning a firearm — whether for hunting, self-defense or just as an exercise of your constitutional right — law-abiding gun owners have a clear choice this fall if they hope to preserve their Second Amendment rights.”

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