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Iran draws missile red line as analysts warn Tehran is stalling US talks

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Iran draws missile red line as analysts warn Tehran is stalling US talks

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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country would not negotiate on its ballistic missile program, rejecting a core U.S. demand and further dimming prospects for a breakthrough deal.

He again warned in an interview with Al Jazeera that Tehran, Iran, would target U.S. bases in the Middle East if provoked, calling Iran’s missile program “never negotiable.”

The warnings came as U.S. and Iranian negotiators met in early February in Oman, even as Washington continued to build up military forces across the region — a posture U.S. officials say is meant to deter further escalation but which analysts argue also underscores how far apart the two sides remain.

Despite the imbalance in military power, analysts say Iran believes it can withstand U.S. pressure by signaling greater resolve — and by betting that Washington’s appetite for war is limited.

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TRUMP SAYS IRAN ALREADY HAS US TERMS AS MILITARY STRIKE CLOCK TICKS

While the U.S. possesses overwhelming military capabilities, Defense Priorities analyst Rosemary Kelanic said Iran is relying on the logic of asymmetric conflict.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country would not negotiate on its ballistic missile program, rejecting a core U.S. demand and further dimming prospects for a breakthrough deal. (Vahid Salemi/AP)

“One country is much stronger, but the weaker country cares more,” Kelanic said. “And historically, the country that cares more often wins by outlasting the stronger one.”

“Iran is trying to signal resolve as strongly as it can, but it likely doubts U.S. resolve — because from Tehran’s perspective, the stakes for Iran are existential, while the stakes for the United States are not,” she added.

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IRAN’S PRESIDENT STRIKES SOFTER TONE ON NUCLEAR TALKS AFTER TRUMP’S WARNING THAT ‘BAD THINGS WOULD HAPPEN’

Behnam Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Tehran’s primary leverage is its ability to threaten wider regional instability, even if it cannot win a prolonged conflict.

“The Islamic Republic’s leverage is the threat of a region-wide war,” Taleblu said, noting that while U.S. and Israeli defenses could intercept most attacks, “something will get hit.”

Iran buying time

Analysts across the spectrum agree that Iran is using negotiations less as a path to compromise than as a way to delay decisive action.

Oren Kessler, analyst at global consulting firm Wikistrat, said Iran is using talks to stabilize its position internally while avoiding concessions on core security issues.

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“Both sides want a deal, but their red lines are very hard for the other side to overcome,” Kesler said. “The talks are going well in the sense that they’re happening, but they’re not really going anywhere.”

Taleblu echoed that assessment, arguing that Tehran is treating diplomacy as a shield rather than a solution.

“The regime is treating negotiations as a lifeline rather than a way to resolve the core problem,” he said.

Taleblu added that Iran’s leadership sees talks as a way to deter a strike in the short term, weaken domestic opposition in the medium term, and eventually secure sanctions relief to stabilize its economy.

In this frame grab from video obtained by the AP outside Iran, a masked demonstrator holds a picture of Iran’s Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi during a protest in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 9, 2026. (UGC via AP)

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio has insisted that limits on Iran’s ballistic missiles must be part of any agreement to avoid military action.

“At the end of the day, the United States is prepared to engage, and has always been prepared to engage with Iran,” Rubio said in early February. “In order for talks to actually lead to something meaningful, they will have to include certain things, and that includes the range of their ballistic missiles. That includes their sponsorship of terrorist organizations across the region. That includes the nuclear program. And that includes the treatment of their own people.”

Anti-government protests beginning at the start of 2026 led to a brutal crackdown in Iran. The regime has admitted to 3,117 deaths linked to the demonstrations, though human rights groups and Iranian resistance organizations peg the death toll as much higher. 

The U.S. also has demanded that Iran give up all enriched uranium stockpiles, which can be used for civilian energy at low levels but for nuclear weapons at higher concentrations.

Araghchi told Al Jazeera that Iran is willing to negotiate on nuclear issues but insisted enrichment is an “inalienable right” that “must continue.”

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Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pictured sitting next to senior military official in Iran. (Getty Images)

“We are ready to reach a reassuring agreement on enrichment,” he said. “The Iranian nuclear case will only be resolved through negotiations.”

Iran’s atomic chief said Monday that Tehran would consider diluting its 60% enriched uranium — a level close to weapons-grade — but only in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions.

As negotiations unfolded, the U.S. continued to expand its military footprint in the Middle East.

In late January, the U.S. dispatched a carrier strike group centered on the USS Abraham Lincoln to the North Arabian Sea, accompanied by multiple destroyers and other naval assets. Additional F-15E strike aircraft and air defense systems have also been repositioned at bases across the region, alongside thousands of U.S. troops.

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Taleblu said the administration may be using diplomacy to buy time of its own.

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“The charitable interpretation is that the president is buying time — moving assets, strengthening missile defense, and preparing military options,” he said. “The less charitable interpretation is that the United States is taking Iran’s threats as highly credible and still chasing the optics of a deal.”

In 2025, five rounds of talks similarly stalled over U.S. demands that Iran abandon enrichment entirely — talks that ultimately collapsed into Operation Midnight Hammer, a U.S.-led bombing campaign against Iranian nuclear facilities.

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Trump renews bridge, power plant threat against Iran in push for deal, mocks ‘tough guy’ IRGC

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Trump renews bridge, power plant threat against Iran in push for deal, mocks ‘tough guy’ IRGC

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President Donald Trump mocked the Islamic Revolutionary Guard on Sunday morning for staking claim to a Strait of Hormuz “blockade” the U.S. military had already put in place.

“Iran recently announced that they were closing the Strait, which is strange, because our BLOCKADE has already closed it,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “They’re helping us without knowing, and they are the ones that lose with the closed passage, $500 Million Dollars a day! The United States loses nothing. 

“In fact, many Ships are headed, right now, to the U.S., Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to load up, compliments of the IRGC, always wanting to be ‘the tough guy!’”

Trump declared Saturday’s IRGC fire was “a total violation” of the ceasefire.

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“Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement!” his post began.

“Many of them were aimed at a French Ship, and a Freighter from the United Kingdom. That wasn’t nice, was it? My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations.”

Trump remains hopeful about diplomacy, but is not ruling out a return to force, where he once warned about ending “civilation” in Iran as they know it.

“We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran,” Trump’s stern warning continued. 

“NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! 

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“They’ll come down fast, they’ll come down easy and, if they don’t take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT’S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END!”

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Ordered free, still locked up: Judges fume as Trump administration holds ICE detainees

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Ordered free, still locked up: Judges fume as Trump administration holds ICE detainees

Judge Troy Nunley was fed up.

Federal immigration officials had once again flouted his authority by keeping a man locked up in a California City detention center after Nunley ordered him released. When he was finally set free, the man was booted onto the street with no passport, driver’s license or other personal effects. The judge’s demand that the items be returned were met with silence.

And so on Tuesday, Nunley, the chief judge of the Eastern District of California, slapped Department of Justice attorney Jonathan Yu with an official sanction and a $250 fine.

In a scathing order, Nunley laid out why he was compelled to take such a rare step. The fine may have been less than some traffic tickets, but it’s nearly unheard for a judge to formally admonish a government lawyer.

By Yu’s own admission, he was drowning in work. In his order, Nunley recounted the attorney’s claim he’d been assigned more than 300 nearly identical cases in the last three months, all of immigrants in detention who argued they were being held without cause.

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Court filings show many California cases involve longtime U.S. residents unexpectedly hauled off to jail after routine check-ins with immigration officials. One was an Afghan who’d helped the American war effort. Another a Cambodian grandmother of eight who fled Pol Pot’s killing fields as a girl nearly 50 years ago.

Until last year, most would have fought deportation on bond after a brief hearing with an immigration judge. Now, their only hope of release is to file a petition for writ of habeas corpus — a legal maneuver once typically reserved for death row inmates and suspected terrorists — inundating the country’s busiest federal courts with thousands of emergency suits.

The Trump administration attorney said he was trying to “triage” the situation, but Nunley found he repeatedly failed to comply, leaving people with the right to walk free stuck behind bars.

“The Court is not persuaded,” he wrote, issuing the sanctions.

The order came days after Nunley took the unusual step of announcing a “judicial emergency” in the district, which covers nearly half of California, stretching from the Oregon border to the Mojave Desert in the inland part of the state, including Fresno, Bakersfield and Sacramento.

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In the last year, the Eastern District has received more petitions from immigration detainees than almost any other jurisdiction in the United States: More than 2,700 since January, compared to fewer than 500 last year and just 18 in 2024. Similar crises are playing out elsewhere, with federal courts in Minnesota briefly paralyzed amid the Trump administration’s enforcement blitz there last winter.

People detained are seen behind fences at an ICE detention facility in Adelanto, California on July 10, 2025.

(Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images)

In an interview with The Times, Nunley said dealing with the surge of activity since last summer has been “like being hit over the head with a bat.”

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“We’re up all night doing these cases,” he said.

So far this year, the Eastern District’s six active judges have ordered almost people 2,000 freed.

“The majority of the cases that we see are cases where people should not be detained,” Nunley said. “They should be receiving hearings to determine whether or not they are to remain in this country, and until they receive those hearings, they should be free.”

Since last July, the Department of Homeland Security has ordered that all immigrants it arrests are subject to “mandatory detention” — a policy that had previously only applied to those caught at the border.

The change came four days after President Trump signed a spending bill that earmarked $45 billion to expand the federal network of immigrant lockups.

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“This has been a sea change in the way the government has read the law,” said My Khanh Ngo, a senior staff attorney at the ACLU Immigrants’ Rights Project. “Almost every judge who has looked at this has agreed these people should get bond, and yet thousands of people are still sitting in detention.”

high school students protest immigration raids

Elizabeth Vega, 15, right, and Darlene Rumualdo, 15, from Torres High School join labor organizers, clergy leaders and immigrant rights groups to protest immigration raids nationwide at La Placita Olvera in downtown Los Angeles on January 23, 2026.

(Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times)

Longtime U.S. residents who might once have fought removal from home — where they can more easily gather evidence to support their case and confer with lawyers — are instead being held indefinitely.

Many have no criminal record. Some have been in the U.S. so long that the countries they came from no longer exist.

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“People are locked up in the same facilities as people accused of crimes, people who’ve been convicted of crimes … and then you’re telling people, you have no shot of getting out,” Ngo said. “Detaining people and not giving them the chance to get out of detention is a way of coercing people to give up their claims.”

The habeas process can take weeks or months depending on the judge and the district.

“When the immigration cases dropped on our district, we got hit harder than any other outside West Texas,” Nunley said. “Initially we had more cases than anyone else.”

Today, data compiled by ProPublica and legal activist groups including the Immigration Justice Transparency Initiative show almost a quarter of the roughly 30,000 active habeas petitions in the United States are in California courts. Nunley’s own tabulations show half the California cases are in his district, where a perfect storm of stepped-up enforcement, a large population of immigrant workers and a concentration of detention centers produced a flash flood of habeas petitions.

The cases rely on the Constitution’s guarantee of due process before being deprived of life, liberty or property. But according to court filings, in some instances the government has argued “the Fifth Amendment does not apply” to detained immigrants.

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DOJ lawyers responding to the bids for freedom now regularly complain they’re being crushed under paperwork.

Judges accustomed to having government lawyers comply with their orders have been left fuming.

In California’s Central District, which includes L.A. and surrounding areas, Judge Sunshine Sykes wrote a fiery decision earlier this year that said the Trump administration is inflicting “terror against noncitizens.”

Sykes is one of several federal judges across the country that have tried to compel the government to resume bond hearings. The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals blocked that decision in March, leaving the habeas system in place for now. But with challenges or recent decisions across multiple circuits, experts say the fight is fated for the Supreme Court.

“ICE has the law and the facts on its side, and it adheres to all court decisions until it ultimately gets them shot down by the highest court in the land,” a Homeland Security spokesperson said in an email to The Times.

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A woman holds a "ICE not welcome here!" sign at a vigil in San Pedro in January.

A woman holds a “ICE not welcome here!” sign at a vigil in San Pedro in January.

(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)

The lawyers fighting to free those jailed under the Trump administration’s mandatory detention policy say they were not initially equipped for these legal battles because they used to be exceedingly rare.

Most federal judges had only seen a handful of habeas petitions before last summer — then suddenly they had hundreds of requests for urgent relief, according to Jean Reisz, co-director of the USC Immigration Clinic.

Reisz said there are efforts to get pro bono law groups trained on how to effectively argue habeas cases, “but it takes a while to get up to speed.”

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A Federal agent asks residents to move back at the scene of a shooting

A federal agent asks residents to move back after a shooting during an immigration enforcement operation in Willowbrook on January 21, 2026.

(Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times)

At the same time, Reisz said, lawyers are pushing judges who oversee the cases to act swiftly, since interminable procedural delays ensure people remain incarcerated.

“Most of the habeas petitions include a motion for temporary restraining orders, and that requires emergency decisions from the courts, which requires the courts to act very fast,” Reisz said.

In California’s federal district courts, the backlog remains thousands deep. Nunley said the system is struggling to keep up with the crush of cases.

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“There’s nothing that says that noncitizens should not be entitled to due process,” Nunley said. “These are our people, they reside in our district. They’re entitled to the same due process that you and I are entitled to.”

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Rubio targets Nicaraguan official over alleged torture tied to ‘brutal’ Ortega regime

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Rubio targets Nicaraguan official over alleged torture tied to ‘brutal’ Ortega regime

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced Saturday that the Trump administration is sanctioning a senior Nicaraguan official over alleged human rights violations.

Rubio said the U.S. is designating Vice Minister of the Interior Luis Roberto Cañas Novoa for his role in “gross violations of human rights” under the government of President Daniel Ortega and Vice President Rosario Murillo, marking what he said was the latest effort to hold the regime accountable.

“The Trump administration continues to hold the Murillo-Ortega dictatorship accountable for brutal human rights violations against Nicaraguans,” Rubio said in a post on X. “I’m designating Nicaraguan Vice Minister of the Interior Luis Roberto Cañas Novoa for his role in human rights violations.”

RUBIO TESTIFIES IN TRIAL OF EX-FLORIDA CONGRESSMAN ALLEGEDLY HIRED BY MADURO GOVERNMENT TO LOBBY FOR VENEZUELA

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks at the State Department, April 14, 2026. The U.S. announced sanctions on a Nicaraguan official tied to alleged human rights abuses under the Ortega-Murillo government. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

The designation was made under Section 7031(c), which allows the State Department to bar foreign officials and their immediate family members from entering the United States due to involvement in significant corruption or human rights abuses.

The State Department has said the Ortega-Murillo government has engaged in arbitrary arrests, torture and extrajudicial killings following mass protests that began in April 2018.

“Nearly eight years ago, the Rosario Murillo and Daniel Ortega dictatorship unleashed a brutal wave of repression against Nicaraguans who courageously stood against the regime’s increased tyranny, corruption, and abuse,” the statement reads.

The State Department said that the sanction marked the anniversary of the 2018 protests, after which more than 325 protesters were murdered in the aftermath.

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A panel of U.N.-backed human rights experts previously accused Nicaragua’s government of systematic abuses “tantamount to crimes against humanity,” following an investigation into the country’s crackdown on political dissent, according to The Associated Press.

The experts said the repression intensified after mass protests in 2018 and has since expanded across large parts of society, targeting perceived opponents of the government.

TRUMP ADMIN ANNOUNCES EXPANSION OF VISA RESTRICTION POLICY IN WESTERN HEMISPHERE

Nicaragua President Daniel Ortega delivers a speech during a ceremony to mark the 199th Independence Day anniversary, in Managua, Nicaragua Sept. 15, 2020.   (Nicaragua’s Presidency/Cesar Perez/Handout via Reuters)

Nicaragua’s government has rejected those findings.

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The designation follows a series of recent U.S. actions targeting the Ortega-Murillo government. In February, the State Department sanctioned five senior Nicaraguan officials tied to repression, citing arbitrary detention, torture, killings and the targeting of clergy, media and civil society.

Earlier this week, the department also announced sanctions on individuals and companies linked to Nicaragua’s gold sector, including two of Ortega and Murillo’s sons, accusing the regime of using the industry to generate foreign currency, launder assets and consolidate power within the ruling family.

The State Department said the move is part of ongoing efforts to hold the Nicaraguan government accountable for its actions.

Fox News Digital reached out to the Nicaraguan government and its embassy in Washington for comment but did not immediately receive a response.

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A man waves a Nicaraguan flag during a demonstration to commemorate Nicaragua’s national Day of Peace, which is celebrated in the country on April 19, and to protest against the government of Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega in San Jose, Costa Rica on April 16, 2023. (Jose Cordero/AFP)

The Trump administration has taken an increasingly aggressive posture in the Western Hemisphere in recent months, including a Jan. 3, 2026, operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.

The U.S. has also carried out a series of strikes targeting suspected drug-trafficking vessels in the region, part of a broader crackdown tied to regional security and narcotics enforcement efforts.

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