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Immigration rises to top of voters' minds ahead of Super Tuesday, polls find

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Immigration rises to top of voters' minds ahead of Super Tuesday, polls find

Many Americans view illegal immigration as a “very serious” problem, and a majority support building a border wall, new polling has found a week before the Super Tuesday primaries.

Republican candidates who want to frame the Biden administration as weak on immigration have repeatedly hammered it as a top issue on the 2024 election campaign trail. A Monmouth University poll released Monday shows that their messaging is sticking — with 8 in 10 Americans across partisan lines seeing illegal immigration as at least a somewhat serious problem. Among Republicans, 91% see illegal immigration as a very serious issue, compared with 58% of independents and 41% of Democrats.

“This is not the first year that we see this, but this is a moment where this is gaining momentum,” said Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, a professor of policy and government at George Mason University who studies immigration. “The elections of 2024 are driving this, and the images are supporting a narrative — the politics of fear.”

A Gallup poll, released Tuesday, reported that a rising share of Americans think immigration is the most important problem facing the country, surpassing the government, the economy, inflation and other social issues. Twenty-eight percent of respondents said immigration is the most important problem, up from 20% in January.

“It’s kind of unusual to have an issue like this be the top, because normally it’s something like the economy or government. Or, you know, after 9/11 it was terrorism. In 2020, it was COVID. Usually it’s a dominant issue like that,” Gallup Senior Editor Jeff Jones said. “So for something like immigration to beat out those issues is pretty notable.”

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Every month for more than 20 years, Gallup has asked respondents about the most important issue facing the country. The last time respondents chose immigration was in July 2019, when there was a rise in attempted border crossings, according to the pollster.

The Gallup poll interviewed a random sample of 1,016 adults from across the country. The telephone survey, which took place over 20 days this month, has a margin of error of 4 percentage points, according to Gallup.

Twenty-eight percent of respondents to the Monmouth poll reported feeling that illegal immigrants take jobs away from American citizens, while 62% say that migrants fill jobs that Americans do not want. Those numbers have stayed relatively steady, said Patrick Murray, director of Monmouth University polling.

“When we started talking about this much more as an issue during the Obama administration … it was the argument about them taking away jobs that was leading the debate,” he said. “Now the terms of debate are really just talking about crime and chaos in society, and the contribution of illegal immigrants to that.”

One of the cornerstones of the MAGA movement, Correa-Cabrera said, is a perception that immigrants bring violence, drugs and insecurity into the United States. Part of the reason, she said, is because many immigrants come to the U.S. to escape violence in their home countries.

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Still, research has repeatedly debunked the idea that immigrants are more prone to commit violent crime than U.S. citizens.

A 2020 study by the U.S. Department of Justice found that immigrants in the country without authorization committed crimes in Texas at far lower rates than U.S.-born citizens. Even so, the Monmouth University poll found that 1 in 3 respondents think illegal immigrants are more likely to commit violent crimes than other Americans.

“The argument is more about this sense of fear and this urgency of our way of life being … attacked,” Murray said. “And having that as a specter out there is a very powerful motivator for the Trump wing, particularly, of the Republican Party.”

Fifty-three percent of respondents support building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, up from 48% when the university first asked the question in 2015, amid the heat of Donald Trump’s campaigning for president on the issue. Support for the wall dropped during his presidency, Monmouth polling found, to a low of 35%.

“When we had quite literally a concrete example of what that wall actually meant, and what it was going to look like and what it was going to do, it started not having a lot of support,” Murray said. “This is a big flip from that point.”

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The polls’ findings come on the heels of a breakdown in bipartisan negotiating for a border bill in Congress. The bill, which a group of Democratic and Republican lawmakers crafted over several months, didn’t make it out of the Senate after Trump voiced his opposition to it and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) called it “dead on arrival.”

The Monmouth poll found that just under half of the public had heard a lot about negotiations on the bill, and yet nearly half of respondents said both parties were equally responsible for blocking the bill.

“It’s pretty hard to look at what happened and not place the objective blame on the Republicans,” Murray said. “Whether you agree with the decision to block it or not, the Republicans in Congress were the ones who blocked this. And yet that doesn’t come through in the public’s perception of what happened. And I think that that’s kind of the key — is that the immigration issue is a significantly greater motivating factor when it’s not being solved than when it is.”

The $118-billion package, which would’ve tightened and streamlined the asylum-seeking process, was one of the most conservative and comprehensive immigration measures before lawmakers in years. Some Democrats, including California’s Sen. Alex Padilla, rebuffed the bill as caving to Republican interests. However, it was Republicans who claimed it did not go far enough to curb illegal immigration, ultimately tanking the bill.

While refusing to negotiate on the border bill, Republicans instead impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas in a historic move, claiming the Biden administration official did not fulfill his duty to enforce the border.

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“The real problems of the immigration system are not going to be addressed this year,” Correa-Cabrera said. “Unfortunately, you know, electoral politics is in the way to make the immigration system better and to fix it. It needs to be fixed. It’s a tragedy, what is happening in the United States.”

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Trump stirs GOP primary drama with visit to Massie’s Kentucky home turf

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Trump stirs GOP primary drama with visit to Massie’s Kentucky home turf

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President Donald Trump is taking his feud with Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., to the libertarian lawmaker’s home turf on Wednesday.

Trump is expected to hold an event in Hebron, Kentucky, on Wednesday, the Republican Party of Kentucky announced on social media Monday. It’s located in the northern part of the state’s 4th Congressional District, which Massie represents.

Massie’s primary rival, Ed Gallrein, will attend the Hebron event, his campaign confirmed to Fox News Digital on Tuesday, while deferring all other questions on the matter to the White House.

Massie himself will miss the event due to a previously scheduled official engagement, his spokesperson told Fox News Digital.

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KHANNA AND MASSIE THREATEN TO FORCE A VOTE ON IRAN AS PROSPECT OF US ATTACK LOOMS

President Donald Trump will be visiting Rep. Thomas Massie’s congressional district on Wednesday. (Win McNamee/Getty Images; Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

When asked about the visit, White House spokeswoman Liz Huston told Fox News Digital, “President Trump will visit the great states of Ohio and Kentucky on Wednesday to tout his economic victories and detail his Administration’s aggressive, ongoing efforts to lower prices and make America more affordable.”

The president has thrown his considerable influence behind Gallrein to unseat Massie after the GOP lawmaker publicly defied Trump on multiple occasions.

MASSIE, KHANNA TO VISIT DOJ TO REVIEW UNREDACTED EPSTEIN FILES

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Massie most recently was one of two House Republicans to vote to stop Trump’s joint operation in Iran with Israel, though the legislation was successfully blocked by the majority of GOP lawmakers and a handful of Democrats.

Ed Gallrein, left, seen with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House. (Ed Gallrein congressional campaign)

He was also one of two Republicans to vote against Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” last year.

Trump in turn has hurled a slew of personal attacks against Massie, including calling him “weak and pathetic” in a statement endorsing Gallrein in October.

“He only votes against the Republican Party, making life very easy for the Radical Left. Unlike ‘lightweight’ Massie, a totally ineffective LOSER who has failed us so badly, CAPTAIN ED GALLREIN IS A WINNER WHO WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN,” Trump posted on Truth Social at the time, one of numerous criticisms targeting the Kentucky Republican through the years.

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He called Massie the “worst Republican congressman” in July amid Massie’s bipartisan push to force the Department of Justice (DOJ) to release its files on Jeffrey Epstein.

Then-Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican from Georgia, Rep. Thomas Massie, a Republican from Kentucky, and Rep. Ro Khanna, a Democrat from California, during a news conference outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2025. (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

But Massie has so far appeared to defy political gravity despite making political enemies out of both Trump and House GOP leaders.

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He handily defeated multiple primary challengers in 2024 and 2022, despite public feuds with Trump, and has served his district since 2012.

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Gallrein is a retired Navy SEAL and farmer who launched his campaign days after Trump made his endorsement. Their primary election day is May 19.

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California Democrats launch pricey polling effort to winnow crowded gubernatorial field

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California Democrats launch pricey polling effort to winnow crowded gubernatorial field

As anxiety mounts among California Democrats about the potential of a Republican being elected governor, the state party will spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on polling to assess the viability of the sprawling field of candidates hoping to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom, according to plans released Tuesday.

The move comes after nearly every Democratic candidate refused party leaders’ call last week to withdraw from the race to avoid splitting the vote in the June primary — an outcome that could lead to a Republican being elected to statewide office for the first time in two decades.

“Candidates have filed, and now they’ve got the opportunity to showcase their viability, their path to win. I want to simply ensure that everybody has information to fully understand the current state of the race,” said Rusty Hicks, the leader of the California Democratic Party.

As campaign season ramps up, the series of six polls will allow “candidates, supporters, the media, voters, anyone and everyone to have a clear understanding of what is or is not happening in this particular race,” he said.

The filing deadline to appear on the June 2 ballot was Friday. Three days earlier, Hicks released an open letter urging candidates who did not have a path to victory to withdraw from the race. Of the nine prominent Democrats who had announced runs for governor, only one heeded his call: former state Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon.

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That means the eight other candidates’ names will appear on the ballot, regardless of whether they decide to later drop out. And that creates the possibility of a Republican winning the race because of how California elections are decided.

The state has a voter-approved top-two primary system, under which the two candidates who receive the most votes in the June primary advance to the November general election, regardless of party.

Two prominent Republicans will appear on the ballot: former conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Even though Democratic voters outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1, and the state’s electorate last elevated Republicans to statewide office in 2006, it is mathematically possible for Democrats to splinter the vote, allowing the two GOP candidates to advance.

Under such a scenario, not only would Republicans be guaranteed the leadership of the nation’s most-populous state, but Democratic voter turnout also would probably be depressed in November, potentially affecting down-ballot races such as those that could determine control of Congress.

Hicks’ call last week prompted concerns among candidates of color, including former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, that the effort was aimed at every nonwhite candidate in the race.

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The state party chairman responded that his letter was not aimed at any specific candidate.

“It’s not something I lose sleep over,” Hicks said when asked about the racial claims. But he added that the voter surveys will be conducted by Los Angeles-based Evitarus, the state’s only Black- and Latino-led full-service polling firm, and will oversample historically underrepresented communities: Latino, Black and Asian American voters.

Hicks said the polling will cost “multiple six figures” but did not specify the exact amount.

The first poll will be released on March 24, and then five additional surveys will come out every seven to 10 days until voters start receiving mail ballots in early May.

“We’re putting this forward to ensure everyone is armed with the information they need to clearly have an eyes-wide-open assessment of where the state of the race currently is between now and when ballots land in the mailboxes of voters,” Hicks said.

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Trump reveals top issues GOP should focus on to secure midterms victory: ‘I’ve never been more confident’

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Trump reveals top issues GOP should focus on to secure midterms victory: ‘I’ve never been more confident’

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President Donald Trump outlined five key items he believes will tip the upcoming midterm elections in the GOP’s favor — if Republicans can muscle them through Congress.

“No transgender mutilation surgery for our children,” Trump told an audience at the Republican Members’ Issues Conference. “Voter ID, citizenship [verification], mail-in ballots, we don’t want men playing in women’s sports.”

It’s the best of Trump. Those are the best of Trump. This is the number one priority, it should be, for the House,” Trump said.

Trump’s exhortations to Republican lawmakers come as the GOP wages an uphill campaign to hang on to a controlling majority in the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. He framed his legislative priorities as a way for Republicans to capitalize on popular demands within the GOP base that would increase their chances of preserving a Republican governing trifecta.

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President Donald Trump gestures as he boards Air Force One before departing Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Florida, on March 1, 2026. (Mandel Ngan / AFP via Getty Images)

HOUSE REPUBLICANS PUSH ELECTION OVERHAUL WITH VOTER ID, MAIL-IN BALLOT CHANGES AHEAD OF MIDTERMS

Currently, Republicans hold just four more seats than Democrats in the House of Representatives.

The GOP holds six more than Democrats in the Senate.

To keep the numbers in their favor, Republicans will need to beat historical trends. In the vast majority of past cases, parties that capture the White House in presidential elections face blowback in the midterms. Notably, the last time a majority party gained seats in both chambers of Congress in the midterms came under the Bush administration in 2002, following devastating attacks on the World Trade Center.

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House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, left, and President Donald Trump shake hands during an Invest America roundtable in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, District of Columbia, on June 9, 2025. (Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

REPUBLICANS, TRUMP RUN INTO SENATE ROADBLOCK ON VOTER ID BILL

Trump said he believes Republicans have a shot at bucking the trend come November if they focus on his list.

“It’ll guarantee the midterms,” Trump said of his legislative priorities.

Republicans have already taken strikes towards two of them through the SAVE America Act, a piece of legislation that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote and cast a ballot. That bill cleared the House last month for a second time in the 119th Congress.

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Its future is uncertain in the Senate, where Republicans would need the assistance of seven Democrats to overcome the 60-vote threshold to defeat a filibuster. Democrats, for their part, believe the legislation would disenfranchise voters who cannot readily provide documented proof of citizenship through a passport, REAL ID, or birth certificate. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D. has promised a vote on the package despite its long odds. 

Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, talks with a guest during a “Only Citizens Vote Bus Tour” rally in Upper Senate Park to urge Congress to pass the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act on Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

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Several members have introduced bills on transgender issues, although none of them have cleared either chamber.

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I’ve never been more confident that if we keep these promises and deliver on this popular agenda, the American people will stand with us in overwhelming numbers, just as they did in 2024,” Trump said.

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