How miscalculations and misperceptions could lead to US-Russia conflict

Regardless of President Biden’s promise to not contain U.S. troops within the warfare between Russia and Ukraine, a miscalculation from both facet in the course of the tense wrestle may danger dragging NATO into the battle.

The concern of a lethal escalation within the battle has been on the middle of the Biden administration’s response in latest days, with the Pentagon final week denying a request from Ukraine to switch Polish MiG-29 fighter jets to the nation’s armed forces by way of the U.S.’s Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

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“The intelligence group has assessed that the switch of MiG-29s could also be mistaken as escalatory and will end in important Russian response that may improve the prospects of a navy escalation with NATO,” Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby informed reporters Wednesday. “Due to this fact, we additionally assess the MiG-29s to Ukraine to be high-risk.”

However maybe the most important danger to an escalation of the battle can be a no-fly zone enforced by NATO, one thing Heritage Basis Senior Analysis Fellow for Protection Coverage John Venable informed Fox Information Digital can be an unlikely danger for NATO to take.

“The issues related to establishing a no-fly zone are huge and would contain extra danger than NATO or the US would settle for underneath virtually any circumstance,” Venable mentioned.

Russian President Vladimir Putin     
(Yuri Kochetkov/Pool/Related Press)

Creator and former DIA intelligence officer Rebekah Koffler informed Fox Information Digital Thursday {that a} no-fly zone presents probably the most danger amongst identified eventualities, however currently-unknown actions may inadvertently trigger an escalation in the course of the “fog of warfare.”

“Normally the trail of the escalation is troublesome to foretell, it might probably come out of nowhere within the fog of warfare,” Koffler mentioned. 

Koffler argued that the present battle in Ukraine is a “proxy warfare” between the U.S. and Russia that would simply escalate right into a “capturing warfare.” 

“It’s so simple for either side to misread one another’s intentions,” Koffler mentioned.

Presidents Biden and Putin
(Chip Somodevilla/Getty Pictures |   Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Pictures)

She famous that Russia is already extremely suspicious of the U.S. and even believes {that a} warfare between the 2 powers is “inevitable.”

“The Russians are predisposed to worst-case state of affairs, their intelligence assessments say {that a} warfare between the U.S. and Russia is inevitable, they already consider it,” Koffler mentioned.

Koffler argued that any variety of steps the U.S. could soak up Ukraine may very well be interpreted by the Russians as escalatory, noting that Russian intelligence companies depend on an algorithm with a number of inputs to evaluate what their adversary’s subsequent transfer could be. Which means even small steps taken by the U.S. may very well be seen as a preparation for warfare. 

Russian navy doctrine would then name for the Kremlin to strike the primary blow in an try to realize the strategic benefit, Koffler famous, including that the Russians are conscious their forces are incapable of competing with U.S. troops in a standard battle.

President Joe Biden
(AP Photograph/Evan Vucci)

A few of Russia’s paranoia in regards to the U.S. stems from earlier American navy operations, Koffler mentioned, together with the 2003 invasion of Iraq that toppled the regime of Saddam Hussein. 

“They’ve assessed that the US is a high-risk adversary as a result of we routinely conduct navy operations to topple regimes akin to Saddam,” Koffler mentioned.

Venable believes the easiest way to keep away from a navy battle is to maintain making use of strain on Russia to drag its forces out of Ukraine, arguing that Russia shedding the warfare may truly trigger them to escalate the state of affairs additional.

“If Putin continues to get boxed in by way of sanctions, buying and selling and banking stoppages — and he begins shedding the warfare, which may be motive sufficient for him to make use of tactical nuclear weapons,” Venable informed Fox Information Digital. “The West must proceed to use strain, try to dealer a settlement/cease-fire whereas persevering with to supply off-ramps that deescalate the potential” for a battle between NATO and Russia.