Republicans have more districts in their corner in the first Fox News Power Rankings House forecast, but overall, the race for a majority is a toss-up.

Two dramatic years in the House haven’t changed voters’ top concerns

Political junkies will tell you that it has been a chaotic couple of years in the House. 

With speaker battles, a debt ceiling crisis, the sixth-ever expulsion of a House lawmaker and the first ever shrinking of the “Squad,” there has been plenty to talk about on television and social media.

At the same time, Americans continue to hold congress in low regard, with only 16% saying they approved of its job in July. (It has been two decades since congress had an approval rating of over 50%).

These might seem like vulnerabilities for the ruling party, but when it comes to their congressional ballot, Americans are putting drama and dissatisfaction aside.

The top issues in the race continue to be the economy, immigration and abortion, and voters are locked in to their preferred party for each of them.

The top three issues in battleground states. (Fox News Power Rankings)

FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: VOTERS’ APPETITE FOR TICKET-SPLITTING WILL DECIDE THE SENATE

Because of that, you can expect similar electoral dynamics in the House as in the Senate. A win for former President Trump will help the GOP stay in power in the lower chamber, as we saw in 2016. A win for Vice President Kamala Harris will likely give the Democrats a win in the House too, as President Biden was able to deliver in 2020.

Fox News Power Rankings final house count prediction. (Fox News)

In the meantime, the race to rule the House starts off as a toss-up.

Five themes across dozens of competitive districts

House forecast themes (Fox News Power Rankings)

Every House seat is up for election every two years, but only a fraction are competitive. In this forecast, 16% of the 435 districts are firmly in play.

There are 19 toss-up races, and with Republicans enjoying a razor-thin majority in the House today, the results in those districts alone will decide which party gets the gavel.

Many of the highly competitive races share key features.

Redistricting

The redistricting process occurs at the beginning of each decade, but a mountain of litigation over racial or partisan gerrymandering issues has left some states redrawing boundaries as recently as May.

The upshot is that several seats are likely to change hands early on election night.

Alabama and Louisiana each have redrawn seats with higher Black voter populations after court rulings. Both seats are represented by vacating Republicans and are Democrats’ best flip opportunities of the night. 

Meanwhile, a state Republican supermajority approved a more favorable map in North Carolina. Three seats currently represented by Democrats will now be open in November, and Republicans are favored in all of them.

Fox News Power Rankings races that lean Democrat. (Fox News)

Redistricting will also affect a highly competitive race in New York.

A district containing Syracuse that currently belongs to Rep. Brandon Williams will shift leftward this year, putting the first-term congressman in a much tougher fight to hold on for a second. New York’s 22nd district is rated Lean D.

Candidate quality

One of the reasons Republicans underperformed expectations in the midterms was candidate quality. In other words, the party fielded nominees who were poor matches for their district, had baggage, or were ineffective campaigners.

This year, the party is working with a stronger bench.

The most notable example is Alaska’s statewide House district. In 2022, moderate Democrat Mary Peltola pulled off a historic upset when she beat former Governor Sarah Palin in the final round of the state’s ranked choice ballot tabulation.

This year, Republicans hope that either second-time candidate Nick Begich or Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom will retake the seat; both have been stronger campaigners.

Peltola is well-liked in her state and has been an advocate on local issues, chiefly the state’s fishing industry. This seat is rated Lean D.

Fox News Power Rankings house races that are toss-ups. (Fox News)

Back on the mainland, Ohio’s 9th district has been in Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s hands since 1983. She has crafted a brand around her pro-agriculture and anti-free trade views.

But with Ohio’s rightward drift, this is a very competitive seat.

In the midterms, Republicans fielded a candidate who was in lock step with Trump but struggled to appeal to centrists. This time, state Rep. Derek Merrin will be on the ballot for the GOP, bringing conservative principles and a wealth of campaign experience along with him.

This seat is a toss-up.

Republicans still have candidate issues in some key races. Washington’s 3rd district will be a rematch between first-term Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Blue Dog Democrat who recently suggested that Biden resign from office, and Joe Kent, her Republican challenger.

Kent, a veteran and former CIA officer, was mired in controversy in 2022. That will continue to be a liability, but Republicans are hopeful that he will run a more disciplined campaign this time. This race is also a toss-up.

Trump helps down ballot Republicans, including in suburban districts

Trump struggled in the suburbs when he last ran for president. According to the Fox News Voter Analysis, he lagged Biden by 10 points with all suburban voters and 19 points with suburban women, leaving him with critical deficits in the battleground states.

House Republicans in city and suburban districts did not fare so poorly. Challengers like Nicole Malliotakis in New York’s 11th district, Young Kim and Michelle Steel in the California suburbs and Maria Elvira Salazar in Miami flipped Democratic districts.

This all suggests that Trump is more helpful to House Republicans than the conventional wisdom might say. He brings out core “MAGA” voters who vote red down the ballot, while allowing candidates to make inroads with moderates and independents.

Fox News Power Rankings races that lean Republican. (Fox News)

The best example is in Nebraska’s 2nd district, containing Omaha and its surrounding suburbs.

At the presidential level, this is a Lean D district (and unlike most, it gets an electoral vote in November). The area has a larger proportion of college-educated voters, who dislike Trump and show up to vote against him.

However, in the House, the race is rated Lean R.

That is thanks to Rep. Don Bacon, a moderate conservative, veteran and Trump critic who has won the district four times from 2016 onwards.

He has another tough battle against state lawmaker Tony Vargas this year, who is running a disciplined and well-funded campaign.

Unlike the presidential race, the Republicans have an edge here so far.

Fox News Power Rankings Democrat vs. Republican “good night” analysis. (Fox News)

Open seats and first-term incumbents

There are several departing Democrats in competitive districts, including Elissa Slotkin in Michigan’s 7th district and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia’s 7th. 

These moderate congresswomen in swingy parts of their states are running for Senate seats this year, leaving highly competitive races behind.

Republicans are hopeful that the departure of these well-known incumbents will give their challengers a boost, but with both parties fielding high-quality replacements, these races will be close (Democrats have an edge in Virginia’s 7th).

FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: WITH VP PICKS, HARRIS AND TRUMP MISS OPPORTUNITIES TO BROADEN THEIR APPEAL

Democrats will also play defense in dozens of districts with first-term incumbents, like Rep. Yadira Caraveo in Colorado’s 8th district. This newly created district includes the northern Denver suburbs and surrounding areas, and Caraveo won it by less than a point last time. This race is a toss-up.

Competitive races in blue states

California and New York run deep blue at the statewide level, but just outside highly populated liberal cities, plenty of districts are in play.

Fox News Power Rankings projected house wins chart. (Fox News)

In California, keep an eye on the 13th district, home of Modesto; the 27th district, north of Los Angeles; and the 41st district, which includes Palm Springs.

Republicans won all three seats by narrow margins in the midterms and are now locked in tough re-election battles with well-funded Democratic opponents. The forecast has Democrats with an edge in the 13th and 27th districts at Lean D, while the 41st is a toss-up.

Across the continent in New York, and Brandon Williams is not the only Republican fighting for his political career.

New York’s 17th, 18th and 19th districts, all in the Hudson Valley region, were hotly contested in the midterms, and two out of the three are now represented by Republicans with strong bipartisan brands. Rep. Mike Lawler is the best known but also has the bluest territory to defend of the two, with Rep. Marc Molinaro in another tight race nearby. Both these races are toss-ups.

In between them is Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, whose race starts at Lean D.

Governor rankings are out tomorrow as the countdown to the DNC continues

Voters in 11 states will cast a ballot for governor this year; tomorrow’s Power Rankings takes a look at the most competitive races on the map.

Then, on Sunday, Fox News Democracy 24 special coverage for the Democratic National Convention begins with an all-new Power Rankings Issues Tracker.

Former President Donald Trump spoke with tech billionaire Elon Musk in an overarching, lengthy interview Monday evening on X as Vice President Kamala Harris continues avoiding the media since landing on the top of the Democratic ticket for the White House. 

“It’s pretty sad when you think that somebody that does this for a living can’t answer a question or is afraid to do an interview, and in her case, with a very friendly interview. She’s got all friendly interviewers,” Trump said of Harris Monday evening during his roughly two-hour interview with Musk on X Space. 

Trump’s comments come as Harris has avoided the media for 22 days. She has snubbed formal press conferences or sit-down interviews, including for a Time magazine cover story, since she emerged as the DNC’s nominee for the White House after President Biden dropped out of the race last month. 

“She is considered more liberal, by far, than Bernie Sanders. She’s a radical-left lunatic. And if she’s going to be our president, very quickly you’re not going to have a country anymore. And she’ll go back to all the things that she believes in. She believes in defunding the police. She believes in no fracking, zero,” Trump added of Harris. 

KAMALA HARRIS DECLINES TIME MAGAZINE INTERVIEW AS SHE CONTINUES TO AVOID THE PRESS

Trump’s interview with Musk kicked off after 8:30 p.m. Monday, following a “massive” distributed denial-of-service attack on the platform that caused delays, Musk explained on X. More than 1 million people ultimately listened to the interview according to the live tracker throughout the discussion. 

X MELTS DOWN AFTER TRUMP-MUSK’S INTERVIEW ‘SPACE’ IMMEDIATELY CRASHES

The two held a laid back interview, where Musk prompted Trump with topics before the 45th president was offered ample time to elaborate on policy issues such as immigration, the assassination attempt on his life last month, spiraling inflation and closing the Department of Education in favor of states taking the mantle on school systems. 

Vice President Kamala Harris says her cursing habit has gotten worse since she entered office.  (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

“I want to close up Department of Education, move education back to the states. … Of the 50 [states], I would bet that 35 would do great. And 15 of them, or, you know, 20 of them, will be as good as Norway. You know, Norway is considered great,” Trump said, while noting left-wing states such as California could struggle if he does eliminate the DOE. 

The 45th president also spoke at length with Musk about the current state of immigration in the U.S. 

“I believe it’s over 20 million people came into our country. Many coming from jails, from prisons, from mental institutions, or a bigger version of that is insane asylums. And many are terrorists. And I’ll tell you what, they’re coming not just from South America. They’re coming from Africa. They’re coming from all over the world. They’re coming from Asia. They’re coming from the Middle East,” Trump told Musk, who endorsed Trump earlier this year. 

Trump said that despite Harris’ recent rhetoric to address the spiraling migrant crisis at the border, she and Biden have had years to address migration but “won’t do anything.” 

“She had three and a half years, and by the way, they have another five months that they can do something. But they won’t do anything. It’s all talk. She’s incompetent and he’s incompetent. And frankly, I think that she’s more incompetent than he is, and that’s saying something, because he’s not too good,” he said. 

On the topic of immigration, Trump also credited a slide his campaign made showing immigration stats for saving his life in Butler, Pennsylvania, last month during a rally, when shooter Thomas Crooks attempted to assassinate him. The 45th president looked over to the slide on immigration data when Crooks opened fire, which narrowly saved his life as the position of his head had abruptly changed. 

“That slide — illegal immigration saved my life,” he told Musk. “The incredible thing is that the chart, I used it less than 20% of the time. It was just a moment.”

“It’s always to my left, never my right, and it’s always at the end of the speech,” Trump added of the position of the slide. 

“I’m going to sleep with that chart always,” he joked. 

FBI INVESTIGATING IRAN’S HACK OF TRUMP CAMPAIGN DOCUMENTS

The interview, billed as “a conversation” between X (formerly Twitter) owner Elon Musk and former US President Donald Trump, originally due to start at 1am on Tuesday, finally got underway just after 1.40am. Picture date: Tuesday August 13, 2024. (Photo by PA Wire/PA Images via Getty Images) (Getty Images)

Trump went on to rattle off a list of wars and world events the U.S. could have avoided if Biden were not in the Oval Office, while noting he was tough on nations such as Russia, China and North Korea and knows the countries’ respective leaders “well.”  

“First of all, the Israeli attack would have never happened. Russia would never have attacked Ukraine, and we’d have no inflation, and we wouldn’t have had the Afghanistan mess, if you think of it well … if you take a few of those events away, and we have a different world.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose for a photo prior to their talks on the sidelines of the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China, on Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2023. President Putin will make a two-day state visit to China this week, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Tuesday, May 14, 2024. (Sergei Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

HARRIS CAMPAIGN POSTS DEBUNKED CLAIM THAT TRUMP CALLED CHARLOTTESVILLE NEO-NAZIS ‘VERY FINE PEOPLE’

He pointed to his tweets back in 2017 when he slammed North Korea’s Kim Jong-un as “little rocket man” as tensions heightened between the two nations amid a series of North Korea missile and nuclear tests. 

In this photo provided by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends at a meeting of the Workers’ Party of Korea in Pyongyang, North Korea on Feb. 28, 2022. Independent journalists were not given access to cover the event depicted in this image distributed by the North Korean government. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. Korean language watermark on image as provided by source reads: “KCNA” which is the abbreviation for Korean Central News Agency.  (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)

“I had that problem worked out very quickly,” Trump said of North Korea. “It was nasty at the beginning with Rocket Man … [Jong-Un] said he has a red button on his desk. I said, ‘I have a red button on my desk too, but my red button is much bigger, and my red button works.’ And then I called him ‘Little Rocket Man.’”

“Anyway, here’s the bottom line. All of a sudden, I got a call from him, and they said they want to meet, they wanted to meet me. And we met … and I got along with him great. We were in no danger, but President Obama thought we were gonna end up in a war, a nuclear war, with him,” he said. 

BURGLARY AT TRUMP CAMPAIGN VIRGINIA HEADQUARTERS CAUGHT ON SURVEILLANCE CAMERA UNDER INVESTIGATION

The Biden administration would support the elimination of taxes on tipped wages, an idea first proposed by former President Trump, the White House said.  (Left: (Photo by Bill Pugliano/Getty Images), Right: (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images))

Trump also addressed Biden’s exit from the 2024 race, saying it was a Democratic “coup” that pressured Biden to drop out. Biden dropped out of the running last month as concerns mounted surrounding his mental acuity and 81 years of age and Democrats and traditional allies of the party called on him to exit the race. 

“This was a coup. This was a coup of a president of the United States. He didn’t want to leave, and they said, ‘We can do it the nice way, or we can do it the hard way,’” Trump said. 

“They just took him out back behind the shed and basically shot him,” Musk added before Trump slammed Biden as “the worst president in history.” 

TRUMP CAMP THANKS WH FOR CONFIRMING THERE’S ‘NO DAYLIGHT’ BETWEEN HARRIS, BIDEN: ‘KAMALA CREATED THIS MESS’

Trump made a return to X, formerly Twitter, earlier on Monday after nearly a year of not posting on his once-favored social media platform. Before X sold to Musk in 2022, Trump was suspended from his Twitter account following the breach of the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. He seldom posted on the platform after Musk reinstated his account, only sharing his mugshot in August of last year. 

Former President Donald Trump told Columbia Journalism Review he had to fight off “unbelievably fake stories” during his presidency. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

“Are you better off now than you were when I was president? Our economy is shattered. Our border has been erased. We’re a nation in decline. Make the American Dream AFFORDABLE again. Make America SAFE again. Make America GREAT Again!” Trump posted earlier Monday amid a flurry of campaign ads. 

Ahead of his interview with Trump, Musk hyped the interview as one that “should be highly entertaining!” as it “​​is unscripted with no limits on subject matter.”

“This country is going down, and these people are bad people that we’re running against. And they’re liars. They make statements. They do things that are so bad. They say they’re going to make a strong border. They say they’ve been great on the border, and they’ve been the worst in history. They say they stop crime,” Trump said towards the end of the interview. 

“It’s so incredible.” 

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

It’s way past time to talk seriously about Trump Derangement Syndrome — his, not his critics’.

For years it’s been clear to mental health experts as well as the armchair variety, to Republicans as well as Democrats, that Donald Trump is not well in the head. Yet his behavior — the pathological lying, childish name-calling, grandiosity and narcissistic obsession with crowd sizes, open bigotry, erraticism, desire to be liked (loved!) by murderous dictators — long ago became normalized.

Trump’s fire hose of cray-cray has inured Americans to his outrages. He unabashedly owns the offenses, then repeats them. And enough of our fellow citizens like that about him, and dislike his opponents, that they elected him president and may do so again.

“God help us,” in the words of retired Marine Gen. John F. Kelly, Trump’s former White House chief of staff.

But now that President Biden, a normal and empathetic man, has been pushed out of the 2024 race over concerns about his age and mental acuity, Trump’s more manifest unfitness for office should be ignored no longer — by the media, former advisors and military leaders who remain silent and, yes, Republicans.

Trouble is, Americans can talk about Trump’s madness, but what’s to be done? Republican “leaders,” who privately concede the truth about their nominee, won’t push him out. They’ve enabled him this long, through repeated down-ballot losses, impeachments, incitements and indictments. And unlike Biden, Trump won’t go voluntarily: He lost an election but was so determined to keep power that he provoked an insurrection.

Forget Republicans’ and Trump’s resistance: A serious discussion and debate about Trump’s state of mind wouldn’t be pointless. It might tip the scales for the few undecided voters in the half-dozen swing states who will decide the election. Do they really want him to control the nuclear codes?

Since 2015, when he descended the golden escalator at Trump Tower to announce his candidacy with the sort of megalomaniacal monologue to which we’ve become desensitized, mental health professionals have shied from publicly addressing Trump’s psyche, cowed by the half-century-old “Goldwater rule” of the American Psychiatric Assn. The rule holds that it is unethical to give a professional opinion about a public figure’s mental health without examining the person and receiving their permission.

During Trump’s presidency, however, several dozen professionals invoked a civic “duty to warn”; they wrote and later expanded a bestseller assessing Trump’s psychological maladies. (Among the purchasers of the first edition: Kelly, to better understand his White House boss.) Meanwhile, privately, other professionals aren’t shy on the topic: Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wrote in her just-released book that psychiatrists flocked to her at a memorial service for one of their colleagues to vent about Trump’s behavior.

And Trump calls her “Crazy Nancy”? Projection.

He seems plainly triggered since Biden’s withdrawal from the race, a race Trump had seemed to be winning, by the ascendance of the Harris-Walz ticket and the large crowds, donations and polling gains the Democrats are getting. He tried to steal back the attention with a news conference on Thursday, a MAGA rally in Montana on Friday and assorted public statements — only to raise more questions about his well-being.

“Umm, @GOP, is @realDonaldTrump ok?” former Republican Party chairman turned apostate Michael Steele posted after one Trump rant on social media. Trump had dubbed Vice President Kamala Harris “Kamabla,” said that she and other Democrats had staged “a COUP” against Biden and suggested Biden would “CRASH” Democrats’ convention next week to seize the nomination. That’s playground babble.

At the Mar-a-Lago news conference, Trump claimed his crowds are not only bigger than Harris’ but also that his Jan. 6 audience near the National Mall exceeded the estimated 250,000 who heard the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I have a dream” speech in Washington in 1963. It didn’t; Trump’s was estimated at 53,000. But who boasts about a crowd that went on to attack the Capitol?

So much of what he told reporters was a lie or the tall tales of an old man —162 misstatements in 64 minutes, by NPR’s count. All it took were calls to Willie Brown, the former San Francisco mayor and California Assembly speaker, and to Nate Holden, former Los Angeles city councilman and state senator, for reporters to debunk Trump’s claim he’d once nearly crashed in a helicopter with Brown. His point was that Brown, who once dated Harris, badmouthed her, on a trip the two men never took together.

Trump also denied that he falsely said what millions of Americans have heard or can easily find on YouTube: that Harris identified as Indian American until she decided to “turn Black.” “I didn’t say it,” he lied, adding for mean measure that she’s been “very disrespectful” to both racial groups.

Since the assassination attempt against him, Trump repeatedly has mocked talk that his brush with death might transform him. “I’m not nicer,” he told donors at one event.

Truth, finally.

He told reporters at Mar-a-Lago that Harris “destroyed San Francisco. She destroyed the state of California, along with Gov. Gavin New-scum.” In Montana, he falsely claimed Harris won’t debate him, “because she’s dumb.” On the weekend, video emerged on social media of Trump, with teenage son Barron beside him in a golf cart, calling Harris a “f–ing bitch.”

A rich donor at a recent dinner asked Trump to describe a positive vision for the country. The New York Times reported that the question “appeared to be a request for reassurance.” But Trump stayed negative, further assailing Harris before adding, “I am who I am.”

Whatever that is, Trump is not fit to be president. Put him on the couch, not behind the Resolute Desk.

@jackiekcalmes