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Forget election night answers: Results may take far longer in many close races

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Forget election night answers: Results may take far longer in many close races

Forget election night. Election season has been upon us for weeks, and it won’t be over anytime soon.

California’s prodigious adoption of vote-by-mail balloting has done more than fundamentally alter how we engage in the democratic process. The shift has also necessitated a cultural reconfiguration about election night results, and recast the timeline for learning outcomes in many races.

Definitive answers will likely only be clear in the most lopsided of contests by late Tuesday night. And conclusive results could take days or weeks to emerge in some of the tightest races.

But fear not, these comparatively slow vote counts are a feature of a working democratic system, not a bug.

“I think oftentimes what people don’t understand about the California election process is that the Legislature, by intent, has allowed voters to have every opportunity to cast a ballot and to get their ballot in,” said Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk Dean Logan, who serves as the county’s chief election official.

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There has been a decades-long push in the state to provide voters with more options and protections, making voting more accessible here than almost anywhere in the nation. But the flip side of that equation means more time-intensive work for election officials.

Think of it this way: When a Californian shows up at a vote center and casts a ballot in person, as was once commonplace, all the verification is done up front at the vote center. When that ballot arrives for tabulation, no extra steps are needed.

Each vote-by-mail ballot, however, has to be verified and processed before it can be tabulated, which is significantly more time-consuming. Now imagine hundreds of thousands of these vote-by-mail ballots arriving at once on or just after election day.

That all-at-once crush of ballots creates what the California Voter Foundation’s Kim Alexander calls “the ‘pig-in-the-python’ phenomenon, where you just have this giant wad of ballots moving through the process.”

“The reason we take so long is we’re verifying all the ballots and making sure only valid ballots are being counted,” Alexander told The Times during the last statewide election. “So it’s a function of election security — the very election security [that] people who criticize slow vote counts are demanding.”

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When will there be election results?

This is a deceptively complicated question.

Let’s start with the straightforward part: California is home to 58 counties, and each has an elections office that counts votes in federal, state and local races in their jurisdictions. In the last presidential primary election in 2020, more than 9.6 million votes were cast in California.

In Los Angeles County, home to one out of every four voters in California, the hotly awaited first tranche of results will be released by the registrar-recorder’s office between 8:30 and 8:45 p.m on election night. That first wave will include only mail-in ballots received before election day.

A second set of results, which will add in ballots cast in-person at vote centers before election day, will be released between 8:45 and 9 p.m., according to the office.

Results from ballots cast in-person on election day will start being released sometime after 9 p.m., with updates coming into the wee hours. (After polls close at 8 p.m., ballots cast at vote centers on election day need to travel to a county facility in the City of Industry before any of them can be tabulated, so that takes some time.)

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After election day, updates will be released daily between 4 and 5 p.m. on weekdays for the next two weeks, according to the registrar-recorder’s office.

The Orange County registrar of voters will follow a similar election night release schedule, with daily updates to follow.

It’s also worth noting that vote-by-mail ballots put into mailboxes on or just before election day can take a few days to arrive in the mail. California law dictates that ballots postmarked by election day must be accepted for up to seven days, meaning the total number of ballots cast won’t even be known until well into next week.

“Ultimately, we will certify our election results on March 29,” Logan, the L.A. County elections chief, said with a laugh. “That’s when we’ll know that every vote has been counted and what the final returns are.”

OK, that’s the literal schedule. But when will we have meaningful answers?

That really depends on the contest in question

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Paul Mitchell, a Democratic strategist and political data expert, predicted that results in some of the bigger-ticket races, like the U.S. Senate race and Gov. Gavin Newsom’s statewide ballot measure, Proposition 1, would actually be known on election night.

The dynamics of a primary election — where the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to a runoff in the Nov. 5 general election rather than a clear victor being declared — might also blunt “the perception of the lateness of the election results,” Mitchell said.

The top candidate in many primary races will be clear on election night, even if it takes longer in some races to determine who will be joining them in a runoff, Mitchell explained.

Take the crowded L.A. County district attorney’s race. Incumbent D.A. George Gascón will almost certainly finish in first place, but it could take days or weeks before enough votes are counted to determine which of his 11 challengers will face him in the November runoff.

Fernando Guerra, director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University, also thought that results for Proposition 1 would be known on election night. But the political science professor predicted that it might take a day or two before the second-place finisher in the Senate race is known for certain.

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Partisan House races where both parties have already coalesced around a candidate — such as the 27th District in northern Los Angeles County, where incumbent Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) is facing off against Democratic challenger George Whitesides — will likely be called shortly after polls close.

But results in more competitive House primaries could take days or weeks.

Where does my ballot go to get processed and tabulated in L.A. County?

There is a sprawling, 144,000-square-foot facility abutting the 60 Freeway in the City of Industry where hundreds of employees have already been working for weeks processing vote-by-mail ballots. The building formerly housed a Fry’s Electronics store, though the massive blue and red decorative gears that once covered the facade have been removed since the county took over.

The operations inside resemble something between a factory floor and a highly choreographed ballet of specific tasks, though the actual tabulation of votes won’t begin until after 8 p.m. on election night.

You can watch the action as it happens on several livestreams. (This is the first year that the same facility is being used for both processing and tabulating. In the past, vote-by-mail ballots had to be trucked to a separate facility in Downey to be counted after they were processed in City of Industry.)

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Every ballot sent in on or before election day 2024 will take a trip to the City of Industry where it will be inspected and counted.

In a county that sprawls across more than 4,000 square miles, transporting ballots to the City of Industry facility on election day is also a massive logistical undertaking. After polls close, workers at vote centers will bring ballots to designated check-in centers, where they will be collected by Sheriff’s Department deputies, who then deliver them to the City of Industry.

The Sheriff’s Department will also be operating helicopters from seven different locations, delivering ballots from far-flung corners of the county. A sheriff’s-operated boat, helicopter or seaplane will bring ballots from Catalina Island to the mainland, with the mode of transportation dependent on weather conditions, Logan said.

More than 400 workers will also be waiting outside of vote-by-mail drop boxes across the county to lock them at 8 p.m., Logan said, before a different set of workers transports those ballots to the City of Industry facility.

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Trump ally diGenova tapped to lead DOJ probe into Brennan over Russia probe origins

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Trump ally diGenova tapped to lead DOJ probe into Brennan over Russia probe origins

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The Justice Department is turning to former Trump attorney Joeseph diGenova to spearhead a probe into ex-CIA Director John Brennan and others over the origins of the Trump-Russia investigation, as the department reshuffles leadership of the sprawling inquiry.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has tapped diGenova to serve as counsel overseeing the matter, according to a New York Times report, putting a former Trump attorney in a key role in the high-profile probe. A federal grand jury seated in Miami has been impaneled since late last year.

The Department of Justice did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

DOJ ACTIVELY PREPARING TO ISSUE GRAND JURY SUBPOENAS RELATING TO JOHN BRENNAN INVESTIGATION: SOURCES

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Joseph diGenova represented President Donald Trump during special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images)

DiGenova, a former U.S. attorney in Washington, D.C., who represented Trump during special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, has repeatedly accused Brennan of misconduct tied to the origins of the Russia probe—allegations that have not resulted in criminal charges.

He also said in a 2018 appearance on Fox News that Brennan colluded with the FBI and DOJ to frame Trump.

The origins of the Russia investigation have been the subject of ongoing scrutiny by Trump allies, who have argued that intelligence and law enforcement officials improperly launched the probe.

BRENNAN INDICTMENT COULD COME WITHIN ‘WEEKS’ AS PROSECUTORS REQUEST OFFICIAL TRANSCRIPTS

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Joseph diGenova has previously said that ex-CIA chief John Brennan colluded with the FBI and DOJ to frame Trump. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images)

DiGenova’s appointment follows the ouster of Maria Medetis Long, a national security prosecutor in the South Florida U.S. attorney’s office. She had been overseeing the inquiry, including a false statements probe related to Brennan and broader conspiracy-related investigations.

As the investigation continues, federal investigators have issued subpoenas seeking information related to intelligence assessments of Russian interference in the 2016 election.

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John Brennan has denied any wrongdoing related to the Russia investigation. (William B. Plowman/NBC/NBC NewsWire via Getty Images; Alex Wong/Getty Images)

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Brennan has previously denied wrongdoing related to the Russia investigation and has defended the intelligence community’s assessment that Moscow interfered in the 2016 election.

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Supreme Court weighs phone searches to find criminals amid complaints of ‘digital dragnets’

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Supreme Court weighs phone searches to find criminals amid complaints of ‘digital dragnets’

A man carrying a gun and a cellphone entered a federal credit union in a small town in central Virginia in May 2019 and demanded cash.

He left with $195,000 in a bag and no clue to his identity. But his smartphone was keeping track of him.

What happened next could yield a landmark ruling from the Supreme Court on the 4th Amendment and its restrictions against “unreasonable searches.” The court will hear arguments on the issue on April 27.

Typically, police use tips or leads to find suspects, then seek a search warrant from a judge to enter a house or other private area to seize the evidence that can prove a crime.

Civil libertarians say the new “digital dragnets” work in reverse.

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“It’s grab the data and search first. Suspicion later. That’s opposite of how our system has worked, and it’s really dangerous,” said Jake Laperruque, an attorney for the Center for Democracy & Technology.

But these new data scans can be effective in finding criminals.

Lacking leads in the Virginia bank robbery, a police detective turned to what one judge in the case called a “groundbreaking investigative tool … enabling the relentless collection of eerily precise location data.”

Cellphones can be tracked through towers, and Google stored this location history data for hundreds of millions of users. The detective sent Google a demand for information known as a “geofence warrant,” referring to a virtual fence around a particular geographic area at a specific time.

The officer sought phones that were within 150 yards of the bank during the hour of the robbery. He used that data to locate Okello Chatrie, then obtained a search warrant of his home where the cash and the holdup notes were found.

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Chatrie entered a conditional guilty plea, but the Supreme Court will hear his appeal next week.

The justices agreed to decide whether geofence warrants violate the 4th Amendment.

The outcome may go beyond location tracking. At issue more broadly is the legal status of the vast amount of privately stored data that can be easily scanned.

This may include words or phrases found in Google searches or in emails. For example, investigators may want to know who searched for a particular address in the weeks before an arson or a murder took place there or who searched for information on making a particular type of bomb.

Judges are deeply divided on how this fits with the 4th Amendment.

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Two years ago, the conservative U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit in New Orleans ruled “geofence warrants are general warrants categorically prohibited by the 4th Amendment.”

Chief Justice John Roberts sided with the court’s liberals in a 4th Amendment privacy case in 2018.

(Alex Wong / Getty Images)

Historians of the 4th Amendment say the constitutional ban on “unreasonable searches and seizures” arose from the anger in the American colonies over British officers using general warrants to search homes and stores even when they had no reason to suspect any particular person of wrongdoing.

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The National Assn. of Criminal Defense Lawyers relies on that contention in opposing geofence warrants.

Its lawyers argued the government obtained Chatrie’s “private location information … with an unconstitutional general warrant that compelled Google to conduct a fishing expedition through millions of Google accounts, without any basis for believing that any one of them would contain incriminating evidence.”

Meanwhile, the more liberal 4th Circuit in Virginia divided 7-7 to reject Chatrie’s appeal. Several judges explained the law was not clear, and the police officer had done nothing wrong.

“There was no search here,” Judge J. Harvie Wilkinson wrote in a concurring opinion that defended the use of this tracking data.

He pointed to Supreme Court rulings in the 1970s declaring that check records held by a bank or dialing records held by a phone company were not private and could be searched by investigators without a warrant.

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Chatrie had agreed to having his location records held by Google. If financial records for several months are not private, the judge wrote, “surely this request for a two-hour snapshot of one’s public movements” is not private either.

Google changed its policy in 2023 and no longer stores location history data for all of its users. But cellphone carriers continue to receive warrants that seek tracking data.

Wilkinson, a prominent conservative from the Reagan era, also argued it would be a mistake for the courts to “frustrate law enforcement’s ability to keep pace with tech-savvy criminals” or cause “more cold cases to go unsolved. Think of a murder where the culprit leaves behind his encrypted phone and nothing else. No fingerprints, no witnesses, no murder weapon. But because the killer allowed Google to track his location, a geofence warrant can crack the case,” he wrote.

Judges in Los Angeles upheld the use of a geofence warrant to find and convict two men for a robbery and murder in a bank parking lot in Paramount.

The victim, Adbadalla Thabet, collected cash from gas stations in Downey, Bellflower, Compton and Lynwood early in the morning before driving to the bank.

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After he was robbed and shot, a Los Angeles County sheriff’s detective found video surveillance that showed he had been followed by two cars whose license plates could not be seen.

The detective then sought a geofence warrant from a Superior Court judge that asked Google for location data for six designated spots on the morning of the murder.

That led to the identification of Daniel Meza and Walter Meneses, who pleaded guilty to the crimes. A California Court of Appeal rejected their 4th Amendment claim in 2023, even though the judges said they had legal doubts about the “novelty of the particular surveillance technique at issue.”

The Supreme Court has also been split on how to apply the 4th Amendment to new types of surveillance.

By a 5-4 vote, the court in 2018 ruled the FBI should have obtained a search warrant before it required a cellphone company to turn over 127 days of records for Timothy Carpenter, a suspect in a series of store robberies in Michigan.

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The data confirmed Carpenter was nearby when four of the stores were robbed.

Chief Justice John G. Roberts, joined by four liberal justices, said this lengthy surveillance violated privacy rights protected by the 4th Amendment.

The “seismic shifts in technology” could permit total surveillance of the public, Roberts wrote, and “we decline to grant the state unrestricted access” to these databases.

But he described the Carpenter decision as “narrow” because it turned on the many weeks of surveillance data.

In dissent, four conservatives questioned how tracking someone’s driving violates their privacy. Surveillance cameras and license plate readers are commonly used by investigators and have rarely been challenged.

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Solicitor Gen. D. John Sauer relies on that argument in his defense of Chatrie’s conviction. “An individual has no reasonable expectation of privacy in movements that anyone could see,” he wrote.

The justices will issue a decision by the end of June.

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Trump renews bridge, power plant threat against Iran in push for deal, mocks ‘tough guy’ IRGC

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Trump renews bridge, power plant threat against Iran in push for deal, mocks ‘tough guy’ IRGC

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President Donald Trump mocked the Islamic Revolutionary Guard on Sunday morning for staking claim to a Strait of Hormuz “blockade” the U.S. military had already put in place.

“Iran recently announced that they were closing the Strait, which is strange, because our BLOCKADE has already closed it,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “They’re helping us without knowing, and they are the ones that lose with the closed passage, $500 Million Dollars a day! The United States loses nothing. 

“In fact, many Ships are headed, right now, to the U.S., Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to load up, compliments of the IRGC, always wanting to be ‘the tough guy!’”

Trump declared Saturday’s IRGC fire was “a total violation” of the ceasefire.

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“Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement!” his post began.

“Many of them were aimed at a French Ship, and a Freighter from the United Kingdom. That wasn’t nice, was it? My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations.”

Trump remains hopeful about diplomacy, but is not ruling out a return to force, where he once warned about ending “civilation” in Iran as they know it.

“We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran,” Trump’s stern warning continued. 

“NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! 

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“They’ll come down fast, they’ll come down easy and, if they don’t take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT’S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END!”

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