Politics
Fed pauses interest rate cuts. What happens next may depend on Trump
WASHINGTON — After three successive interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday made no change in its benchmark lending rate amid new economic uncertainties over the outlook for inflation and President Trump’s continued threats of new tariffs and other measures.
The Fed had been widely expected to ease back from the slow but steady stream of rate cuts last year, because economic growth has been stronger than many expected and the inflation rate has inched up after months of steady declines.
The Fed’s interest rate decisions have far-reaching effects on almost every facet of the economy, from corporate investment decisions and jobs to the price of cars and groceries. And its decisions rest on its analysis of forces likely to shape the course of the economy in coming months.
The avalanche of unexpectedly dramatic policy pronouncements in the first days of the new Trump administration has made the future unusually murky for such analysis. The president has promised a pro-growth agenda with lower taxes and reduced government regulation.
But he’s also threatening to impose higher tariffs on multiple countries, which could weigh on U.S. economic activity and reignite inflation.
That raises the possibility that the Fed could even reverse course and hike interest rates, which could put it on a collision course with Trump.
“Borrowers shouldn’t bank on the Fed being in any hurry to cut interest rates again,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “If we see inflation pressures ease on a consistent basis, I could see the Fed cutting interest rates 2 or 3 times this year. But if the progress on inflation remains stalled out, or if inflation picks up, the Fed will not cut interest rates at all.”
The extent and timing of Trump’s various policy actions are not in view yet. But Trump clearly wants lower interest rates. He has already said so on a number of occasions, and analysts expect the president may lash out at Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell if he doesn’t respond, as Trump did in his first term, adding to the pressures for the independent central bank.
The Fed’s policy statement Wednesday gave no new indication of what lies ahead.
Powell, in a news conference, said he had had no contact with Trump, and declined to comment on the president’s remarks about interest rates.
Asked what reassurance he could give about the Fed’s independence, Powell replied that he and his colleagues will continue to study the data to gauge the outlook and to use the tools that they have to achieve their goals — stable prices and maximum employment.
“That’s what we do, that’s always what we do. Don’t look for us to do anything else,” he said, adding that research shows that a central bank operating independently is best for the economy.
There was no immediate comment from Trump after the Fed’s decision was announced. Stocks generally traded lower after the release of the Fed statement.
Powell said the Fed would carefully watch the new administration’s policies. But for now, he said, Fed policies and the economy are in a good place and he saw no hurry to adjust interest rates.
At the end of December, Powell and his colleagues foresaw two quarter-point interest rate cuts for 2025, after shaving a full percentage point over three straight meetings last fall and winter.
By most accounts, the Fed’s key interest rate, now at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, is somewhat restrictive in terms of the effect on the economy. And financial markets still expect two rate cuts this year.
But the prospect of significantly higher tariffs on imports and the launch already of Trump’s promised mass deportations of undocumented workers have the potential to spark higher inflation.
The departure of many foreign workers could shrink the labor supply and cause employers to bid up wages. Fatter paychecks, coupled with the added cost of new tariffs, would almost certainly add to inflationary pressures.
Many companies have already said they would expect to pass tariff costs on to consumers.
And for California, the outlook is further clouded by the current and still-to-come impact of the wildfires. The huge scale of the rebuilding is likely to fuel higher prices for things like lumber, and will probably lead to higher rents and home prices in the short term.
Overall consumer price inflation in the U.S. has come down sharply since peaking at near double digits in mid-2022, stoked by the pandemic, but in recent months has hovered near 3%. The Fed wants to get that down to 2%.
Progress has been impeded by higher-than-expected increases for housing as well as sharply higher prices last year for services such as motor vehicle insurance and repair costs. Food and energy prices also jumped late last year.
Since taking office, Trump has said he’ll bring both inflation and interest rates down by lowering oil prices, calling on OPEC to pump out more crude even as the president seeks to boost domestic production.
That alone would chip away at inflation, although analysts say that other Trump-favored policies such as tariffs aren’t compatible with lower prices.
“The mainstream [economic] view is that inflation is going to come down further,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds, an economic and markets research firm. “The 800-pound gorilla in the room, of course, is the newly elected president. His view on interest rates is known. … Regardless of the logic, he just wants interest rates to be lower.”
Politics
Video: Trump Says ‘Only Time Will Tell’ How Long U.S. Controls Venezuela
new video loaded: Trump Says ‘Only Time Will Tell’ How Long U.S. Controls Venezuela
transcript
transcript
Trump Says ‘Only Time Will Tell’ How Long U.S. Controls Venezuela
President Trump did not say exactly how long the the United states would control Venezuela, but said that it could last years.
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“How Long do you think you’ll be running Venezuela?” “Only time will tell. Like three months. six months, a year, longer?” “I would say much longer than that.” “Much longer, and, and —” “We have to rebuild. You have to rebuild the country, and we will rebuild it in a very profitable way. We’re going to be using oil, and we’re going to be taking oil. We’re getting oil prices down, and we’re going to be giving money to Venezuela, which they desperately need. I would love to go, yeah. I think at some point, it will be safe.” “What would trigger a decision to send ground troops into Venezuela?” “I wouldn’t want to tell you that because I can’t, I can’t give up information like that to a reporter. As good as you may be, I just can’t talk about that.” “Would you do it if you couldn’t get at the oil? Would you do it —” “If they’re treating us with great respect. As you know, we’re getting along very well with the administration that is there right now.” “Have you spoken to Delcy Rodríguez?” “I don’t want to comment on that, but Marco speaks to her all the time.”
January 8, 2026
Politics
Trump calls for $1.5T defense budget to build ‘dream military’
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President Donald Trump called for defense spending to be raised to $1.5 trillion, a 50% increase over this year’s budget.
“After long and difficult negotiations with Senators, Congressmen, Secretaries, and other Political Representatives, I have determined that, for the Good of our Country, especially in these very troubled and dangerous times, our Military Budget for the year 2027 should not be $1 Trillion Dollars, but rather $1.5 Trillion Dollars,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Thursday evening.
“This will allow us to build the “Dream Military” that we have long been entitled to and, more importantly, that will keep us SAFE and SECURE, regardless of foe.”
The president said he came up with the number after tariff revenues created a surplus of cash. He claimed the levies were bringing in enough money to pay for both a major boost to the defense budget “easily,” pay down the national debt, which is over $38 trillion, and offer “a substantial dividend to moderate income patriots.”
SENATE SENDS $901B DEFENSE BILL TO TRUMP AFTER CLASHES OVER BOAT STRIKE, DC AIRSPACE
President Donald Trump called for defense spending to be raised to $1.5 trillion, a 50% increase over this year’s record budget. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
The boost likely reflects efforts to fund Trump’s ambitious military plans, from the Golden Dome homeland missile defense shield to a new ‘Trump class’ of battleships.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found that the increased budget would cost about $5 trillion from 2027 to 2035, or $5.7 trillion with interest. Tariff revenues, the group found, would cover about half the cost – $2.5 trillion or $3 trillion with interest.
The Supreme Court is expected to rule in a major case Friday that will determine the legality of Trump’s sweeping tariff strategy.
CONGRESS UNVEILS $900B DEFENSE BILL TARGETING CHINA WITH TECH BANS, INVESTMENT CRACKDOWN, US TROOP PAY RAISE
This year the defense budget is expected to breach $1 trillion for the first time thanks to a $150 billion reconciliation bill Congress passed to boost the expected $900 billion defense spending legislation for fiscal year 2026. Congress has yet to pass a full-year defense budget for 2026.
Some Republicans have long called for a major increase to defense spending to bring the topline total to 5% of GDP, as the $1.5 trillion budget would do, up from the current 3.5%.
The boost likely reflects efforts to fund Trump’s ambitious military plans, from the Golden Dome homeland missile defense shield to a new ‘Trump class’ of battleships. (Lockheed Martin via Reuters)
Trump has ramped up pressure on Europe to increase its national security spending to 5% of GDP – 3.5% on core military requirements and 1.5% on defense-related areas like cybersecurity and critical infrastructure.
Trump’s budget announcement came hours after defense stocks took a dip when he condemned the performance rates of major defense contractors. In a separate Truth Social post he announced he would not allow defense firms to buy back their own stocks, offer large salaries to executives or issue dividends to shareholders.
“Executive Pay Packages in the Defense Industry are exorbitant and unjustifiable given how slowly these Companies are delivering vital Equipment to our Military, and our Allies,” he said.
“Defense Companies are not producing our Great Military Equipment rapidly enough and, once produced, not maintaining it properly or quickly.”
U.S. Army soldiers stand near an armored military vehicle on the outskirts of Rumaylan in Syria’s northeastern Hasakeh province, bordering Turkey, on March 27, 2023. (Delil Souleiman/AFP via Getty Images)
He said that executives would not be allowed to make above $5 million until they build new production plants.
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Stock buybacks, dividends and executive compensation are generally governed by securities law, state corporate law and private contracts, and cannot be broadly restricted without congressional action.
An executive order the White House released Wednesday frames the restrictions as conditions on future defense contracts, rather than a blanket prohibition. The order directs the secretary of war to ensure that new contracts include provisions barring stock buybacks and corporate distributions during periods of underperformance, non-compliance or inadequate production, as determined by the Pentagon.
Politics
Newsom moves to reshape who runs California’s schools under budget plan
SACRAMENTO — Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday unveiled a sweeping proposal to overhaul how California’s education system is governed, calling for structural changes that he said would shift oversight of the Department of Education and redefine the role of the state’s elected schools chief.
The proposal, which is part of Newsom’s state budget plan that will be released Friday, would unify the policymaking State Board of Education with the department, which is responsible for carrying out those policies. The governor said the change would better align education efforts from early childhood through college.
“California can no longer postpone reforms that have been recommended regularly for a century,” Newsom said in a statement. “These critical reforms will bring greater accountability, clarity, and coherence to how we serve our students and schools.”
Few details were provided about how the role of the state superintendent of public instruction would change, beyond a greater focus on fostering coordination and aligning education policy.
The changes would require approval from state lawmakers, who will be in the state Capitol on Thursday for Newsom’s last State of the State speech in his final year as governor.
The proposal would implement recommendations from a 2002 report by the state Legislature, titled “California’s Master Plan for Education,” which described the state’s K-12 governance as fragmented and “with overlapping roles that sometimes operate in conflict with one another, to the detriment of the educational services offered to students.” Newsom’s office said similar concerns have been raised repeatedly since 1920 and were echoed again in a December 2025 report by research center Policy Analysis for California Education.
“The sobering reality of California’s education system is that too few schools can now provide the conditions in which the State can fairly ask students to learn to the highest standards, let alone prepare themselves to meet their future learning needs,” the Legislature’s 2002 report stated. Those most harmed are often low-income students and students of color, the report added.
“California’s education governance system is complex and too often creates challenges for school leaders,” Edgar Zazueta, executive director of the Assn. of California School Administrators, said in a statement provided by Newsom’s office. “As responsibilities and demands on schools continue to increase, educators need governance systems that are designed to better support positive student outcomes.”
The current budget allocated $137.6 billion for education from transitional kindergarten through the 12th grade — the highest per-pupil funding level in state history — and Newsom’s office said his proposal is intended to ensure those investments translate into more consistent support and improved outcomes statewide.
“For decades the fragmented and inefficient structure overseeing our public education system has hindered our students’ ability to succeed and thrive,” Ted Lempert, president of advocacy group Children Now, said in a statement provided by the governor’s office. “Major reform is essential, and we’re thrilled that the Governor is tackling this issue to improve our kids’ education.”
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