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Column: Trump wins! (One way or another.) Here's why

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Column: Trump wins! (One way or another.) Here's why

No matter what verdict the jury delivers in Donald Trump’s trial on business fraud charges in New York, one outcome is predictable: The former president will react with defiance and denial — plus a declaration of victory if he isn’t found guilty on all counts.

A more important effect is almost as predictable: The verdict won’t have much impact on his chances of winning the presidential election.

Even a finding of guilty on tangled charges that Trump committed business fraud to hide hush money payments to an adult film actress is likely to have only a minor effect on his standing in the eyes of most voters.

A conviction, which the former president would almost certainly appeal, won’t prevent him from staying in the race. And if he wins the election, he stands a good chance of avoiding any serious penalties, at least while he’s in office.

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Trump faces four possible verdicts: guilty on all counts, a split decision, a hung jury or acquittal.

GUILTY — It won’t be easy to spin a conviction on all 34 counts as a victory, but there are plenty of ways Trump can mitigate the consequences. He’ll continue to claim that the charges were flimsy and the process was rigged against him. And if he appeals the verdict, that will have two effects: It will almost certainly keep him out of jail until long after election day, and it will allow him to argue (correctly) that a conviction can’t be considered final while it’s under challenge.

SPLIT DECISION — If Trump is found guilty on some counts but not on others, he can be relied on to declare it a moral victory. He’ll almost certainly appeal any and all convictions, and argue that the muddled outcome proves that the charges against him were weak from the start.

HUNG JURY — It takes only one of 12 jurors to block a jury from delivering a verdict — a “hung jury,” normally resulting in a mistrial. If the jury can’t reach a decision, Trump will exult that even a jury of Manhattanites in one of the most liberal jurisdictions in the nation failed to find him culpable — another moral victory declaration.

ACQUITTAL — This would be total victory. The candidate would claim that it proves he’s been right all along — and that his opponents have unfairly “weaponized” the judicial system against him.

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Why do I say even a guilty verdict isn’t likely to dent Trump’s electoral prospects? Because that’s what the smartest political pollsters I know, both Republicans and Democrats, say.

“A conviction in this case is unlikely to play a significant role” in the election, Democratic strategist Mark Mellman said. “It’s possible that the polls will flutter and then return to where they were. And it’s possible that there won’t be a flutter.”

“The most likely impact of a guilty verdict is negligible,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres agreed.

An ABC News/Ipsos poll last month found that that 16% of Trump’s current voters said they would reconsider supporting him if he were convicted in the New York case, and another 4% said they would definitely stop supporting him. But voters are generally bad at predicting how they would react to hypothetical future events, the pollsters warned.

In 1998, Mellman noted, plenty of Democrats told pollsters they thought then-President Clinton should resign if he were impeached for lying about a sexual relationship with a White House intern. But when the Republican-led House of Representatives actually impeached Clinton, his voters stuck with him and his popularity soared.

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Trump has spent months attacking the legitimacy of the criminal cases against him — preparing his supporters, in effect, to ignore a guilty verdict.

And he has shown, over and over, that constant repetition can bend public opinion his way.

A case in point: Trump’s insistence that the 2020 presidential election was rigged. A year ago, the Monmouth University Poll found that 68% of Republicans said they believed President Biden won the election through fraud. By February, with Trump campaigning relentlessly on his bogus election claims, that number ticked up to 75%.

“We have seen, over eight years, a series of events that caused people to say, ‘Surely this time, Trump will lose support.’ But he never really does,” Ayres said.

As for undecided voters, five months of campaigning still remain. Voters who haven’t made up their minds are unlikely to decide in November on the basis of a verdict on business-fraud charges — a verdict that will be under appeal, at worst — that was delivered in May.

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Trump has already scored at least one important victory. Six months ago, he was facing four serious criminal cases, any of which could have derailed his presidential campaign: a federal case stemming from his supporters’ invasion of the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021; a federal case on charges he illegally retained highly classified documents; a Georgia election interference case; and the New York business fraud case.

Now he has contrived to postpone a final reckoning in all four until long past the election.

The delays don’t make the charges go away.

But if Trump wins the election, he can order the Justice Department to halt the two federal cases. And under most legal precedent, state courts would put his prosecutions in New York and Georgia on hold while he’s serving as president. If he wins in November and completes a full term, that means he won’t face prosecution before 2029, when he’ll be 82.

In short, no matter how the New York trial concludes, Trump will survive to fight another day — and perhaps even to serve another four years as president.

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It has often been noted that it is unprecedented for a former president to face criminal charges. It is equally unprecedented, and equally noteworthy, that he can go on trial, face possible conviction — and have it barely dent his political fortunes.

Read more McManus columns on Trump:
Trump has big plans for California if he wins a second term. Fasten your seatbelts
Trump wants to round up over a million undocumented migrants from California. Here’s how he might do it
Trump loves fossil fuels; California wants clean energy. Cue collision

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How the House Slumped to Historic Lows of Productivity in 2025

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How the House Slumped to Historic Lows of Productivity in 2025

Even by the standards of an institution that has set records for dysfunction in recent years, the Republican-led Congress in 2025 hit new lows for productivity.

Plagued by a razor-thin majority, intraparty divisions and a fear of doing anything that might draw President Trump’s ire, Speaker Mike Johnson toiled to keep the House running.

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He left the chamber out of session for a nearly eight-week period that coincided with the longest government shutdown in history. He maneuvered to avoid politically difficult votes on canceling Mr. Trump’s tariffs, releasing the Epstein files and extending health care subsidies, ultimately prompting his own rank-and-file to team with Democrats to go around him and force action. And he presided over a free-for-all of censures and reprimands on the House floor as lawmakers’ frustrations boiled over.

Fed up with the toxicity and inertia, some Republicans, including once-loyal Trump allies like Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, headed for the exits, diminishing the majority’s already thin voting margin.

A look at some key metrics illustrates the cost and scale of the dysfunction.

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The most basic: House members cast 362 votes in 2025, the second-lowest count in the last quarter century. The only other year in that time frame when the House cast fewer votes was 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic hit the United States.

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Roll call votes since 2001

Source: U.S. House of Representatives The New York Times

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That was also the fewest votes cast in a nonelection year since 1990. Congressional leaders typically schedule less time in session in Washington during election years to allow lawmakers to return to their districts more frequently to campaign.

The record-low levels of activity in the House in 2025 contributed to the fact that very few bills were enacted into law.

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Enacted bills passed by Congress since 2001

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Notes: Chart shows bills that became public laws. Bills passed each January before a new session of Congress began are counted in the previous year. Bills that named government facilities, awarded congressional gold medals or appointed citizen members of the Smithsonian are excluded. Source: United States Congress The New York Times

The only other year since 2001 that Congress enacted fewer bills was 2023, a time of so much turbulence that far-right Republicans ousted their own speaker, Kevin McCarthy, for working with Democrats to pass spending legislation.

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The lack of productivity that year could also be attributed to divided government: Republicans controlled the House, Democrats controlled the Senate and President Joseph R. Biden Jr. was running for re-election. But in 2025, Republicans had a governing trifecta in Washington, controlling both chambers of Congress and the White House.

While Congress moved uncharacteristically quickly to meet Mr. Trump’s demand that it deliver his tax cut and domestic policy law, Mr. Johnson also labored to quash measures the president opposed. He even resorted repeatedly to an arcane maneuver to ensure that the House would not be forced to vote on a measure to cancel his tariffs.

It was one example of how, under Mr. Johnson, the House marginalized itself last year, as Congress more broadly ceded its power to Mr. Trump.

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The speaker also attempted to avoid votes on other measures the president opposed, including legislation to compel the Justice Department to disclose materials regarding Jeffrey Epstein, the convicted sex offender who died in prison in 2019; and a bipartisan bill to extend health care subsidies that expired at the end of 2025.

That generated so much resistance in his own ranks that it fueled a record number of successful efforts to go around Mr. Johnson and force legislation to the floor. That can be done by way of what is known as a discharge petition, which circumvents the normal process for bringing up a bill, which is controlled by the speaker, if a majority of House members sign a petition demanding it.

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Historically, members of the majority were reluctant to embarrass their party’s leaders by using a discharge petition, and lawmakers feared retaliation for publicly supporting efforts to subvert the speaker. The efforts were viewed more as public statements of discontent than viable legislative vehicles. But in 2025, several succeeded and led to concrete action.

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Discharge petitions that received at least 218 signatures since 2001

Source: United States Congress The New York Times

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The Epstein measure was enacted last fall, and the House this month passed a bill to restore the health subsidies, though it has an uphill road to enactment in an election year.

As it has spun its wheels on legislation, the House has increasingly been consumed by partisan measures aimed at scolding and punishing each other. Official rebukes, once exceedingly rare and mostly reserved for egregious conduct or illegal acts, have become commonplace. Six of them came to the floor in 2025 for six different members.

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Censures, reprimands and expulsions since 2001

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Note: Only bills that underwent a floor vote or a procedural floor vote are shown. Source: United States Congress The New York Times

That number was on par with 2023, when members targeted four lawmakers, including George Santos, whom they expelled from Congress as he faced 23 federal criminal charges and was discovered to have lied to voters about much of his biography.

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Spanberger takes swipe at Trump admin, says Virginians worried about ‘recklessness coming out of Washington’

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Spanberger takes swipe at Trump admin, says Virginians worried about ‘recklessness coming out of Washington’

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Democrat Abigail Spanberger took multiple swipes at the Trump administration on Saturday as she was sworn-in as Virginia’s first female governor. 

Spanberger, who handily defeated Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in November and takes over for Republican Glenn Youngkin, told a crowd at the State Capitol that, “I know many of you are worried about the recklessness coming out of Washington.” 

“You are worried about policies that are hurting our communities, cutting health care access, imperiling rural hospitals and driving up costs. You are worried about Washington policies that are closing off markets, hurting innovation and private industry, and attacking those who have devoted their lives to public service,” Spanberger said. 

“You are worried about an administration that is gilding buildings while schools crumble, breaking, breaking, breaking the social safety net and sowing fear across our communities, betraying the values of who we are as Americans, the very values that we celebrate here on these steps,” she continued.

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VIRGINIA DEMOCRATS MOVE TO SEIZE REDISTRICTING POWER, OPENING DOOR TO 4 NEW LEFT-LEANING SEATS

Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger speaks during inaugural ceremonies at the Capitol, Saturday, in Richmond, Va.  (AP Photo/Steve Helber)

“And across the Commonwealth, everything keeps getting a bit more expensive. Groceries, medicine, day care, the electricity bill, rent and the mortgage. Families are strained, kids are stressed, and so much just seems to be getting harder and harder,” Spanberger added. 

She then said, “Growing up, my parents always taught me that when faced with something unacceptable, you must speak up.”

YOUNGKIN BACKS JD VANCE FOR 2028, CALLS VICE PRESIDENT A ‘GREAT’ GOP NOMINEE

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Abigail Spanberger takes the oath of Governor of Virginia during inaugural activities, Saturday, at the Capitol in Richmond, Va. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough)

“You must take action. You must right what you believe is wrong and fix what isn’t working. And I know that some who are here today, or watching from home, may disagree with the litany of challenges and the hardships that I laid out,” Spanberger also said. “Your perspective may differ from mine, but that does not preclude us from working together where we may find common cause.” 

Fox News Digital has reached out to the White House for a response to Spanberger’s remarks.

Abigail Spanberger takes part in the key exchange with departing Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin before inaugural ceremonies at the Capitol in Richmond, Va.  (AP Photo/Steve Helber)

“The history and the gravity of this moment are not lost on me. I maintain an abiding sense of gratitude to those who work, generation after generation, to ensure women could be among those casting ballots,” Spanberger said at one point during her speech.

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Prior to her inauguration speech, Youngkin posted a video on X where he said it was an “honor of a lifetime” to serve the state. 

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Trump pardons convicted California fraudster he previously freed for different crime

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Trump pardons convicted California fraudster he previously freed for different crime

President Trump this week pardoned a San Diego-area woman whose sentence he commuted during his first term but who shortly wound up back in prison for a different scheme.

In 2016 a federal jury convicted Adriana Camberos and her then-husband, Joseph Shayota, on conspiracy charges in connection with an elaborate scheme to sell millions of bottles of counterfeit 5-Hour Energy shots in the United States. She was sentenced to 26 months in prison and served barely more than half of that time when Trump commuted her sentence in 2021.

But her freedom proved fleeting. In 2024, Camberos and her brother, Andres, were convicted in a separate case that involved lying to manufacturers to purchase wholesale groceries and additional items at big discounts after pledging that they were meant for sale in Mexico or to prisoners or rehabilitation facilities. The siblings then instead sold the products at higher prices to U.S. distributors, prosecutors said.

To avoid detection, prosecutors said, Camberos and her brother committed bank and mail fraud. Prosecutors said the pair made millions in illegal profits, funding a lavish lifestyle that included a Lamborghini Huracan, multiple homes in the San Diego area and a beachside condominium in Coronado.

The decision to pardon Camberos came amid a flurry of such actions from Trump in recent days, including for the father of a large donor to his super PAC and the former governor of Puerto Rico, who pleaded guilty last August to a campaign finance violation in a federal case that authorities say also involved a former FBI agent and a Venezuelan banker.

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The president has issued a number of clemencies during the first year of his second term, many for defendants in criminal cases once touted by federal prosecutors. The moves come amid a continuing Trump administration effort to erode public integrity guardrails — including the firing of the Justice Department’s pardon attorney.

Among those granted relief of their prison sentences are defendants with connections to the president or to people in his orbit.

Administration officials have not offered a public explanation for Trump’s decision to pardon Camberos. But a White House official, speaking on background, said the administration felt it was correcting an earlier wrong by pardoning Camberos, arguing that she and her brother were unfairly targeted and subject to a political prosecution under the administration of former President Biden. The official alleged the Biden administration targeted the Camberos family in response to the earlier conviction and that the conduct was a typical part of the Camberos’ wholesale grocery business.

Ahead of her first conviction, authorities said Camberos and her then-husband operated a company called Baja Exporting, which contracted with the distributors of 5-Hour Energy to sell the product in Mexico. However, the company then altered the goods’ Spanish-language packaging and labeling and instead distributed them in the U.S. at well below the company’s normal retail price, prosecutors alleged.

That relabeling effort involved 350,000 bottles sold from late 2009 through 2011 at 15% below normal retail prices, according to authorities. The couple then took things a step further, joining with other defendants in Southern California and Michigan to manufacture a bogus concoction bottled and labeled to mimic the authentic product, according to court records. The scheme transformed the following year into one that produced and marketed several million bottles of counterfeit drink that was mixed under unsanitary conditions by day laborers, prosecutors said.

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Six other defendants pleaded guilty to similar charges in connection with the scheme.

It wasn’t clear whether any consumers were harmed. The Food and Drug Administration, which regulates 5-Hour Energy as a dietary supplement, has investigated at least eight deaths and a dozen life-threatening reactions involving energy shots before and during the time period of the counterfeiting.

The recent wave of clemencies joins previous Trump pardons of former Democratic Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich and former Republican Connecticut Gov. John Rowland, whose promising political career was upended by a corruption scandal and two federal prison stints.

Trump also pardoned former U.S. Rep. Michael Grimm, a New York Republican who resigned from Congress after a tax fraud conviction and made headlines for threatening to throw a reporter off a Capitol balcony over a question he didn’t like. Reality TV stars Todd and Julie Chrisley, who had been convicted of cheating banks and evading taxes, also received pardons from Trump.

Times staff writer Ana Ceballos and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

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