Politics
Column: Trump wins! (One way or another.) Here's why
No matter what verdict the jury delivers in Donald Trump’s trial on business fraud charges in New York, one outcome is predictable: The former president will react with defiance and denial — plus a declaration of victory if he isn’t found guilty on all counts.
A more important effect is almost as predictable: The verdict won’t have much impact on his chances of winning the presidential election.
Even a finding of guilty on tangled charges that Trump committed business fraud to hide hush money payments to an adult film actress is likely to have only a minor effect on his standing in the eyes of most voters.
A conviction, which the former president would almost certainly appeal, won’t prevent him from staying in the race. And if he wins the election, he stands a good chance of avoiding any serious penalties, at least while he’s in office.
Trump faces four possible verdicts: guilty on all counts, a split decision, a hung jury or acquittal.
GUILTY — It won’t be easy to spin a conviction on all 34 counts as a victory, but there are plenty of ways Trump can mitigate the consequences. He’ll continue to claim that the charges were flimsy and the process was rigged against him. And if he appeals the verdict, that will have two effects: It will almost certainly keep him out of jail until long after election day, and it will allow him to argue (correctly) that a conviction can’t be considered final while it’s under challenge.
SPLIT DECISION — If Trump is found guilty on some counts but not on others, he can be relied on to declare it a moral victory. He’ll almost certainly appeal any and all convictions, and argue that the muddled outcome proves that the charges against him were weak from the start.
HUNG JURY — It takes only one of 12 jurors to block a jury from delivering a verdict — a “hung jury,” normally resulting in a mistrial. If the jury can’t reach a decision, Trump will exult that even a jury of Manhattanites in one of the most liberal jurisdictions in the nation failed to find him culpable — another moral victory declaration.
ACQUITTAL — This would be total victory. The candidate would claim that it proves he’s been right all along — and that his opponents have unfairly “weaponized” the judicial system against him.
Why do I say even a guilty verdict isn’t likely to dent Trump’s electoral prospects? Because that’s what the smartest political pollsters I know, both Republicans and Democrats, say.
“A conviction in this case is unlikely to play a significant role” in the election, Democratic strategist Mark Mellman said. “It’s possible that the polls will flutter and then return to where they were. And it’s possible that there won’t be a flutter.”
“The most likely impact of a guilty verdict is negligible,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres agreed.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll last month found that that 16% of Trump’s current voters said they would reconsider supporting him if he were convicted in the New York case, and another 4% said they would definitely stop supporting him. But voters are generally bad at predicting how they would react to hypothetical future events, the pollsters warned.
In 1998, Mellman noted, plenty of Democrats told pollsters they thought then-President Clinton should resign if he were impeached for lying about a sexual relationship with a White House intern. But when the Republican-led House of Representatives actually impeached Clinton, his voters stuck with him and his popularity soared.
Trump has spent months attacking the legitimacy of the criminal cases against him — preparing his supporters, in effect, to ignore a guilty verdict.
And he has shown, over and over, that constant repetition can bend public opinion his way.
A case in point: Trump’s insistence that the 2020 presidential election was rigged. A year ago, the Monmouth University Poll found that 68% of Republicans said they believed President Biden won the election through fraud. By February, with Trump campaigning relentlessly on his bogus election claims, that number ticked up to 75%.
“We have seen, over eight years, a series of events that caused people to say, ‘Surely this time, Trump will lose support.’ But he never really does,” Ayres said.
As for undecided voters, five months of campaigning still remain. Voters who haven’t made up their minds are unlikely to decide in November on the basis of a verdict on business-fraud charges — a verdict that will be under appeal, at worst — that was delivered in May.
Trump has already scored at least one important victory. Six months ago, he was facing four serious criminal cases, any of which could have derailed his presidential campaign: a federal case stemming from his supporters’ invasion of the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021; a federal case on charges he illegally retained highly classified documents; a Georgia election interference case; and the New York business fraud case.
Now he has contrived to postpone a final reckoning in all four until long past the election.
The delays don’t make the charges go away.
But if Trump wins the election, he can order the Justice Department to halt the two federal cases. And under most legal precedent, state courts would put his prosecutions in New York and Georgia on hold while he’s serving as president. If he wins in November and completes a full term, that means he won’t face prosecution before 2029, when he’ll be 82.
In short, no matter how the New York trial concludes, Trump will survive to fight another day — and perhaps even to serve another four years as president.
It has often been noted that it is unprecedented for a former president to face criminal charges. It is equally unprecedented, and equally noteworthy, that he can go on trial, face possible conviction — and have it barely dent his political fortunes.
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Politics
Trump lists accomplishments, says ‘Radical Left Scum’ are ‘failing badly’ in Christmas message
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President Donald Trump used his Christmas Eve Truth Social post to tout his administration’s accomplishments and to bash those on the left whom he accused of trying to “destroy” the U.S.
“Merry Christmas to all, including the radical left scum that is doing everything possible to destroy our country, but are failing badly,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We no longer have open borders, men in women’s sports, transgender for everyone, or weak law enforcement. What we do have is a record stock market and 401K’s, lowest crime numbers in decades, no inflation, and yesterday, a 4.3 GDP, two points better than expected.”
“Tariffs have given us trillions of dollars in growth and prosperity, and the strongest national security we have ever had. We are respected again, perhaps like never before. God Bless America!!!,” the president added.
In the first year of Trump’s second term, the administration launched a sweeping crackdown on illegal immigration, introduced controversial tariffs, worked to cut DEI from government programs and took steps toward fulfilling other campaign promises.
TRUMP TAKES NORAD SANTA CALLS WITH CHILDREN, PRAISES ‘CLEAN, BEAUTIFUL COAL’ AND ‘HIGH IQ’ PERSON
President Donald Trump calls children as he participates in tracking Santa Claus’ movements with the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) Santa Tracker on Christmas Eve at the Mar-a-Lago resort on Dec. 24, 2025, in Palm Beach, Florida. This is the 70th year that NORAD has publicly tracked Santa’s sleigh on its global rounds. (Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)
The Department of Homeland Security announced Wednesday that it had arrested 17,500 criminal illegal immigrants since Trump signed the Laken Riley Act in January 2025. In a separate DHS announcement, the department unveiled the “2025 Worst of the Worst Criminal Illegal Aliens,” saying that 70% of all ICE arrests are of illegal immigrants “convicted or charged with a crime in the U.S.”
DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said in a statement on the results of the Laken Riley Act that “President Trump has empowered us to arrest and remove the millions of violent criminal illegal aliens unleashed on the United States by the previous administration. Now, these criminals will face justice and be removed from our country.”
Trump’s Christmas Truth Social post on his administration’s accomplishments was also backed up by recent economic data. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its initial estimate of the third-quarter GDP, which showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the three-month period including July, August and September.
President Donald Trump pumps his fist at Christmas Eve dinner at his Mar-a-Lago club, Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla. (Alex Brandon/AP Photo)
OPINION: MELANIA TRUMP’S WHITE HOUSE CHRISTMAS IS A SHINING BEACON OF AMERICA
“Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected a smaller decrease in investment, an acceleration in consumer spending, and upturns in exports and government spending. Imports decreased less in the third quarter,” the BEA said.
While the president issued a cutting Christmas Eve statement on Truth Social, his official Christmas Day message was softer and more focused on the meaning of the holiday and the season.
In the statement, which was released by the White House on Thursday, Trump and first lady Melania Trump relayed their warm wishes to Americans while emphasizing the religious significance of Christmas.
The Trump administration launched a new website celebrating Christmas and the federal government’s contributions to the U.S. stretching back decades. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
MELANIA TRUMP GIVES UPLIFTING MESSAGE ABOUT SANTA TO YOUNG KIDS AT HOSPITAL
“The First Lady and I send our warmest wishes to all Americans as we share in the joy of Christmas Day and celebrate the birth of our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ,” the message reads.
Trump went on to recount the biblical story of Jesus’ birth in Bethlehem, calling it “the perfect expression of God’s boundless love and His desire to be close to His people.” The president then tied the story to the founding principles of the U.S.
“For nearly 250 years, the principles of faith, family, and freedom have remained at the center of our way of life. As President, I will never waver in defending the fundamental values that make America the greatest country in the history of the world—and we will always remain one Nation under God.”
President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump participate in calls to U.S. service members, on Christmas Eve, from the Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, Dec. 24, 2025. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)
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The president also paid homage to U.S. servicemembers who are overseas and are unable to be with their families for the holiday. Trump thanked them for their service and sacrifice and their dedication to protecting Americans.
“We are grateful for their devotion, and we keep them and their loved ones close in our hearts.”
Trump ended his official message with a prayer for peace in the U.S. and across the globe, extending Christmas wishes to Americans and the world.
“During the Christmas season, we pray for an outpouring of God’s abiding love, divine mercy, and everlasting peace upon our country and the entire world,” he said.. “To every American, and to those celebrating around the globe, we wish you a very Merry Christmas!”
Politics
The battle for control of Warner Bros.: A timeline of key developments
Netflix and Paramount are locked in an epic tug-of-war for HBO and Warner Bros. — the historic film factory behind Batman, Harry Potter, Scooby-Doo, “Casablanca” and “The Matrix.”
Warner Bros. Discovery awarded the prize to Netflix, prompting Paramount to mount a hostile takeover bid valued at $108 billion for all of the Warner assets, which also include CNN, TBS, HGTV and TLC. The Larry Ellison-backed media company, run by his son David Ellison, has asked Warner shareholders to sell their shares to Paramount.
Warner Bros.’ sale has become the industry’s game of thrones.
The streaming king, Netflix, hopes to buy a chunk of the company — HBO, HBO Max, Warner Bros. film and TV studios and the 110-acre lot in Burbank — through its $82.7-billion deal. Not included are Warner’s basic cable channels, which are set to be spun off into a separate, publicly-traded company called Discovery Global.
Both deals would fundamentally reorder Hollywood and raise antitrust concerns. Netflix would boast more than 400 million subscribers worldwide, furthering its market dominance. And Paramount’s takeover would combine two major film studios and two leading news organizations, CNN and CBS News, under Ellison family control.
Here’s a look at how we got here:
Politics
Nearly 20 states sue HHS over declaration to restrict gender transition treatment for minors
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A group of 19 Democrat-led states and Washington, D.C., filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration over a declaration that aims to restrict gender transition treatment for minors.
The lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; its secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; and its inspector general comes after the declaration issued last week described treatments such as puberty blockers, hormone therapy and gender surgeries as unsafe and ineffective for children experiencing gender dysphoria.
The declaration also warned doctors they could be excluded from federal health programs, including Medicare and Medicaid, if they provide these treatments to minors.
The move seeks to build on President Donald Trump’s executive order in January calling on HHS to protect children from “chemical and surgical mutilation.”
HHS UNLEASHES SWEEPING CRACKDOWN ON CHILD ‘SEX-REJECTING PROCEDURES,’ THREATENS HOSPITAL, MEDICAID FUNDING
The lawsuit was filed against the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; its secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; and its inspector general. (Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters)
“We are taking six decisive actions guided by gold standard science and the week one executive order from President Trump to protect children from chemical and surgical mutilation,” Kennedy said during a press conference last week.
HHS has also proposed new rules designed to further block gender transition treatment for minors, although the lawsuit does not address the rules, which have yet to be finalized.
The states’ lawsuit, filed Tuesday in Eugene, Oregon, argues that the declaration is inaccurate and unlawful and urges the court to prevent it from being enforced.
“Secretary Kennedy cannot unilaterally change medical standards by posting a document online, and no one should lose access to medically necessary health care because their federal government tried to interfere in decisions that belong in doctors’ offices,” New York Attorney General Letitia James, who led the lawsuit, said in a statement.
The lawsuit claims the declaration attempts to pressure providers into ending gender transition treatment for young people and circumvent legal requirements for policy changes. The complaint said federal law requires the public be given notice and an opportunity to comment before substantively amending health policy and that neither of these were done before the declaration was released.
HHS’ move seeks to build on President Donald Trump’s executive order in January calling on HHS to protect children from “chemical and surgical mutilation.” (Tom Brenner for The Washington Post via Getty Images)
The declaration based its conclusions on a peer-reviewed report that the department conducted earlier this year that called for more reliance on behavioral therapy rather than broad gender transition treatment for minors with gender dysphoria.
The report raised questions about standards for the treatment of transgender children issued by the World Professional Association for Transgender Health and brought concerns that youths may be too young to give consent to life-changing treatments that could result in future infertility.
Major medical groups and physicians who treat transgender children have criticized the report as inaccurate.
HHS also announced last week two proposed federal rules — one to cut off federal Medicaid and Medicare funding from hospitals that offer gender transition treatment to children and another to block federal Medicaid money from being used for these procedures.
HOUSE APPROVES MTG-SPONSORED BILL TO CRIMINALIZE GENDER TRANSITION TREATMENT FOR MINORS
New York Attorney General Letitia James led the lawsuit against the Trump administration. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
The proposals have not yet been made final and are not legally binding because they must go through a lengthy rulemaking process and public comment before they can be enforced.
Several major medical providers have already pulled back on gender transition treatment for youths since Trump returned to office, even those in Democrat-led states where the procedures are legal under state law.
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Medicaid programs in just under half of states currently cover gender transition treatment. At least 27 states have adopted laws restricting or banning the treatment, and the Supreme Court’s decision this year upholding Tennessee’s ban likely means other state laws will remain in place.
Democrat attorneys general from California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Wisconsin, Washington state and Washington, D.C., as well as Pennsylvania’s Democrat governor, joined James in the lawsuit.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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