Politics
Column: Cool weather, hot races forecast for November
Today we discuss cliff-hangers, the Founding Fathers and legerdemain.
Let’s get to it. Who’s going to win the presidential race?
I haven’t a clue.
So what good are you?
That’s a question readers ask all the time.
What can you say about the race?
The contest will come down to seven or so highly competitive states and, maybe, the one electoral vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which is anchored in the Omaha-Council Bluffs metropolitan area.
The key states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In short, the battlegrounds that determined the outcome of the 2020 election.
Why the same states over and over? Why not, say, California?
Pull up your chair for a quick civics refresher.
The presidential race is determined not by the winner of the popular vote but which candidate takes a majority — 270 votes — in the electoral college. Some might recollect that two of our last four presidents — George W. Bush and Donald Trump — claimed the White House despite losing the popular vote.
That’s outrageous!
Can’t help you there. Blame the country’s founders. They wrote the rule book.
Go on.
Most states, including the biggies like California, Texas, Florida and New York, are locked into their partisan preferences. (California and New York are solidly Democratic while Texas and Florida — once the nation’s premier swing state — lean Republican.)
Given those inclinations, Kamala Harris can pretty much bank on 226 electoral votes. Trump can count on 219. That leaves 93 up for grabs in those seven states.
What was that about Omaha?
Just about every state awards their electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis. Nebraska is one of two — Maine being the other — that has a hybrid system awarding some electoral votes to the winner of the statewide vote and others based on the winner of each congressional district.
There’s a not-inconceivable scenario in which Harris finishes with 269 electoral votes and needs the one vote from Nebraska to avoid a tie in the electoral college, which would send the election to the House to decide. In that case, Trump would almost certainly prevail, as each state’s delegation would have one vote and Republicans are expected to control more delegations than Democrats.
Wasn’t there a recent effort to boost Trump by changing the law in Nebraska?
Yes there was and it failed, thanks to a single upstanding Republican state senator from Omaha, Mike McDonnell, who refused to go along.
Which was a good thing.
Why is that?
If you thought 2020 was fraught — with all the wrangling over pandemic-induced changes to the balloting process — or consider the 2000 contest to have been divisive — with a partisan Supreme Court vote delivering the White House to George W. Bush after Florida effectively ended in a tie vote — imagine if this election was decided by some last-minute Republican sleight of hand.
What about control of Congress?
That also appears up for grabs, though Republicans have a distinct advantage in the fight for the Senate.
Because of that French word you used?
Legerdemain? No. Because of mathematics.
There are 34 Senate races across the country. Democrats are defending 23 seats, Republicans 11. Worse for Democrats, several of the seats they’re trying to hang onto are in states Trump carried in 2020 — several of them rather handily.
Right now, Democrats hold a bare Senate 51-49 majority, which includes four independents who caucus with them. The party has ceded West Virginia, where one of those independents, Joe Manchin III, is retiring and where Trump won by nearly 40 percentage points in 2020. That puts the Senate at 50-50. Democrats could keep control if they win the White House, since the vice president casts the tie-breaking vote. But that would require the party to win every one of the seats now being fiercely contested.
And how’s that going for Democrats?
Not bad — but maybe not good enough.
At the moment, Democrats appear to be holding their own in Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. But Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin look to be much closer. And Democrat Jon Tester appears to be in grave danger in Montana, a state Trump carried four years ago by 16 percentage points. Tester has a history of winning tough races, but this one is his toughest yet.
So it’s all gravy for Republicans?
Pretty much.
Democrats would love to flip GOP-held seats in Texas and Florida and help take out Sen. Deb Fischer in Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn is making a strong run.
But all three states are virtually certain to back Trump in November and it’s getting increasingly difficult for Senate candidates to swim against the partisan tide. In 2016, for the first time since the direct election of U.S. senators began a century earlier, every Senate race went the same way as the presidential contest; if Trump won a state, the seat went Republican. If Hillary Clinton prevailed, the seat went Democratic.
That pattern held in 2020 with the exception of Maine, where Joe Biden prevailed and Republican Susan Collins was reelected to her fifth term.
What about control of the House?
That’s also too close to call.
Republicans currently hold a razor-wafer-tissue-thin (your choice!) majority of just four seats. All 435 seats are on November’s ballot, but the fight for the majority will come down to roughly two dozen contests.
Several of those are in California, which has become one of the country’s prime congressional battlegrounds after voters in 2008 took the power to draw district lines away from self-interested lawmakers. Democrats hope to flip Republican-held seats in Orange County, the Central Valley, the L.A. suburbs and Palm Springs. They’re also on the offense in New York, where the GOP made significant gains in the 2022 midterm election.
But Republicans aren’t just hunkered down trying to preserve their bare majority. GOP targets include a handful of Democratic-held seats in California as well as incumbents in Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and elsewhere.
What do the polls say?
Ignore ‘em. Even the best are nothing more than an educated guess. No one knows what’s going to happen.
Honest.
Instead of obsessing over the latest higgledy-piggledy, do something useful. If you’re undecided, do some research. If you’re committed to a candidate, and have the time and inclination, volunteer to knock on doors or make phone calls.
Above all, be sure to vote and do so in time to make certain your ballot is counted.
Politics
U.S. Seizes Second Tanker Carrying Iranian Oil
U.S. military forces stopped and boarded a second sanctioned tanker carrying oil from Iran in the Indian Ocean, the Pentagon said on Thursday, ramping up pressure on Tehran as the Trump administration seeks to resume negotiations to end the war.
A naval boarding team roped down from hovering helicopters and fanned out on the vessel, the M/T Majestic X, according to a Pentagon statement that included a 17-second video of the operation.
The military said the boarding was part of a “global maritime enforcement to disrupt illicit networks and interdict vessels providing material support to Iran, wherever they operate.”
Earlier this week, Navy SEALS boarded another ship in the Indian Ocean, the M/T Tifani, after the Pentagon said it was carrying oil from Iran.
Navy destroyers are also shadowing several other Iranian vessels, including the Dorena and Sevin, which had left from the Iranian port of Chabahar before the U.S.-imposed blockade began on April 13, a U.S. military official said. The Navy is directing those ships to return to an Iranian port, the official said.
With the M/T Tifani and M/T Majestic X now at least temporarily in the custody of the military, a U.S. military official said it was up to the White House to decide what to do with the sanctioned vessels and their cargo. The administration previously seized several tankers carrying illicit oil from Venezuela after a U.S. commando raid there in January that seized Nicolás Maduro, the country’s president.
“International waters cannot be used as a shield by sanctioned actors,” the Pentagon said in its statement on Thursday, adding that the department would “continue to deny illicit actors and their vessels freedom of maneuver in the maritime domain.”
Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, hinted last week that the U.S. military would likely commence boarding operations like the ones this week. He said that U.S. military commanders elsewhere in the world, and especially in the Indo-Pacific region, would “actively pursue any Iranian-flagged vessel or any vessel attempting to provide material support to Iran.”
The U.S. Navy has turned back at least 31 ships trying to enter or exit Iranian ports since an American blockade outside the contested Strait of Hormuz began about a week ago, U.S. Central Command said late Wednesday.
Last Sunday, a Navy destroyer disabled and seized the Touska, an Iranian cargo ship, after it tried to evade the blockade. It was the first time a vessel was reported to have tried to evade the U.S.-imposed blockade on any ship entering or exiting Iranian ports since it took effect last week.
Politics
Leavitt explains why Iran’s seizure of two ships doesn’t violate Trump’s ceasefire
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White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt explained why President Donald Trump does not consider Iran’s seizure of two ships in the Strait of Hormuz a violation of the ceasefire agreement.
Leavitt made the statement during an interview with Fox News’ Martha McCallum on Wednesday just hours after Iran captured the Greek and Mediterranean-flagged vessels.
“Does the seizure of two ships — as we said, they were Greek and Mediterranean-owned ships with cargo on them, and the reports are that Iran basically seized them and then moved them into Iranian waters. We don’t know what’s going to happen to these crews. We’re not sure where all of this is going. Does the president view that as a violation of the ceasefire?” McCallum asked.
“No, because these were not U.S. ships. These were not Israeli ships. These were two international vessels,” Leavitt responded.
US FORCES ATTEMPTING TO BOARD SANCTIONED RUSSIAN-FLAGGED OIL TANKER IN NORTH ATLANTIC, SOURCES SAY
Karoline Leavitt, White House press secretary, conducts a press briefing. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
“And for the American media, who are sort of blowing this out of proportion to discredit the president’s facts that he has completely obliterated Iran’s conventional Navy, these two ships were taken by speedy gunboats. Iran has gone from having the most lethal Navy in the Middle East to now acting like a bunch of pirates. They don’t have control over the strait,” she continued.
“This is piracy that we are seeing on display. And the naval blockade that the United States has imposed continues to be incredibly effective. And, to be clear, the blockade is on ships going to and from Iranian ports. And the point of this is the economic leverage that we maintain over Iran now. While there’s a ceasefire with respect to the military and kinetic strikes, Operation Economic Fury continues, and the crux of that is this naval blockade,” she added.
The Iranian made ‘Seraj’ a high-speed missile-launching assault boat on display in Tehran on August 23, 2010, as Iran kicked off mass production of two high-speed missile-launching assault boats the ‘Seraj’ (Lamp) and ‘Zolfaqar’ (named after Shiite Imam Ali’s sword) speedboats which will be manufactured at the marine industries complex of the ministry of defense. (YALDA MOAIERY/AFP via Getty Images)
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said the vessels, identified as the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas, were operating without proper authorization and had tampered with navigation systems, accusations that could not be independently verified. The ships had earlier reported coming under fire near the strait, underscoring the increasingly volatile conditions in one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes.
US ‘LOCKED AND LOADED’ TO DESTROY IRAN’S ‘CROWN JEWEL’ ‘IF WE WANT,’ TRUMP WARNS
The Guard attacked a third ship, identified as the Euphoria, which had become “stranded” on the Iranian coast, Iranian media reported. It did not seize that vessel.
Ships and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Musandam, Oman, April 18, 2026. (Reuters)
Both the U.S. and Iranian sides have targeted commercial and cargo vessels as part of a broader pressure campaign tied to stalled negotiations. U.S. forces have also moved to seize at least one Iranian-linked vessel in the region, with each side accusing the other of violating the terms of a fragile ceasefire.
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The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global oil shipments, with roughly 20% of the world’s supply passing through it. Traffic has slowed dramatically as ships reroute or avoid the area amid gunfire, seizures and conflicting directives from both militaries.
Fox News’ Morgan Phillips contributed to this report.
Politics
Bass, Barger meet with Trump to push for L.A. fire recovery funds
WASHINGTON — Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and L.A. County Supervisor Kathryn Barger met privately with President Trump and administration officials Wednesday to press for federal support and yet-unpaid wildfire recovery funding as the region continues to rebuild from the 2025 fires.
“This afternoon we met with President Trump and Administration officials to advocate for families who lost everything,” Bass and Barger said in a statement. “We had a very positive discussion about FEMA and other rebuilding funds as well as the support of the President to continue joining us in pressuring the insurance companies to pay what they owe — and for the big banks to step up to ease the financial pressure on L.A. families.”
Barger said the two leaders had a “high-level discussion” with the president in the Oval Office, sharing stories about what fire survivors are experiencing day to day. She added that “we left details behind with the President,” but did not specify whether Trump made any funding or policy promises during the meeting.
“First and foremost, today’s meeting was to thank the President for his initial support of infusing federal resources to expedite debris removal, as well as his recent tweet about insurance companies, which have already proven fruitful,” she said in a statement provided to The Times.
Bass was similarly reserved about the discussions, telling reporters that “we will follow up with the details,” but signaled progress is being made on federal support.
“I think what’s important is that we certainly got the president’s support in terms of, you know, what is needed, and then the appropriate people were in the room for us to follow up. And that was Russ Vought, who is the head of the Office of Management and budget,” Bass told KNX on Wednesday.
The meeting comes on the heels of a yearlong standoff between California leaders and the Trump administration over wildfire recovery funding, disaster response and whether the federal government should have a say in local rebuilding permitting.
California leaders, led by Gov. Gavin Newsom, have accused the Trump administration of withholding billions in critical wildfire aid, prompting a lawsuit over stalled recovery funds. Officials allege political bias in the delay of billions of dollars from the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Newsom visited Washington in December. When he made his rounds on Capitol Hill, he met with five lawmakers, including three who serve on the Senate and House appropriations committees, to renew calls for $33.9 billion in federal aid for Los Angeles County fire recovery.
But the governor said he was denied a meeting with FEMA and would not say whether he had attempted to meet with Trump to discuss the issue.
Bass, meanwhile, appears to have found a path to the president on a subject that has been paramount for her community.
The fruitful meeting comes after Trump lobbed insults at the mayor at a news conference earlier this year, where he called her “incompetent” for how she handled last year’s wildfire recovery efforts. He alleged that under Bass’ leadership, the city’s delay in issuing local building permits will take years when it should have taken “two or three days.”
California officials, including Newsom, have urged the Trump administration to send Congress a formal request for the $33.9 billion in recovery aid needed to rebuild homes, schools, utilities and other critical infrastructure destroyed or damaged when the fires tore through neighborhoods more than 15 months ago.
What Bass and Barger’s meeting with the president ultimately produces remains to be seen.
The billions in recovery aid have not yet materialized, but the meeting could potentially give those discussions new momentum.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request seeking comment about the meeting.
Earlier this month, Trump criticized insurance provider State Farm on Truth Social for its handling of the devastating Los Angeles County wildfires. He accused the insurance giant of abandoning its policyholders when tragedy struck.
“It was brought to my attention that the Insurance Companies, in particular, State Farm, have been absolutely horrible to people that have been paying them large Premiums for years, only to find that when tragedy struck, these horrendous Companies were not there to help!” Trump wrote.
But the rebuke didn’t come out of the blue. It stemmed from a controversial February visit to Los Angeles by Trump administration officials.
Trump tapped Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin in an effort to strip California state and local governments of their authority to permit the rebuilding of homes destroyed in the Eaton and Palisades fires.
Within the week, Zeldin was in Los Angeles, bashing Newsom and Los Angeles officials at a roundtable with fire victims and reporters, saying that residents were suffering from “bureaucratic, red tape delays and incompetency” and that leadership was “denying them … the ability to rebuild their lives”.
During the trip, officials heard direct complaints from local leaders and fire victims about insurers being slow, restrictive and insufficient with their claim payouts.
After these meetings, Trump directed Zeldin to investigate the insurers’ responses. State Farm, facing roughly $7 billion in fire-related claims, is also under formal investigation by California’s insurance commissioner over its handling of the crisis.
Despite tensions with the administration, Bass and Barger appeared confident that progress was being made on the insurance and funding issues.
“Our job is to fight for our communities,” their joint statement concluded. “When it comes to this recovery, our federal partners are essential, and we are grateful for the support of the President.”
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