Tariffs haven’t yet hit the supply chain at Anawalt in Malibu, but the hardware store and lumber seller is bracing for steep price hikes in the coming weeks.

The majority of the lumber that the store sells comes from Canada and nearly all of its steel products are made in China, general manager Rieff Anawalt said. Those countries, along with Mexico, have been targeted in sweeping tariffs imposed by President Trump during his second term, sparking a global trade war that intensified this week.

“These tariffs are 100% going to impact us,” Anawalt said. Wholesale reps for the family-run hardware company, which has five locations around Los Angeles County, have warned him to expect prices to go up by April 1 — costs that he said he’ll have to pass on to customers.

“We’re going to see major increases: 15% to 25% across the board in this industry,” he said. “It’ll make COVID prices seem cheap.”

Across California, businesses of all kinds — farmers, automakers, home builders, tech companies and apparel retailers — are reeling from weeks of on-again, off-again tariff chaos as Trump has announced a slew of levies against the country’s top three trading partners, implementing some while modifying, delaying or reversing others.

“It’s a day-by-day soap opera, and just like a soap opera, you get relief, then it heats up again,” said Jonathan D. Aronson, a professor of international communication and international relations at USC.

As a result, business owners “don’t know what’s going to happen,” he said. “They can’t plan. They don’t know how much to produce. They don’t know who their business partners are going to be.”

This month has been particularly tumultuous. On March 4, Trump’s 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico kicked in, with a limit of 10% on Canadian energy; he also doubled the tariff on all Chinese imports to 20%. All three countries vowed to strike back with their own measures.

The next day, Trump granted a one-month exemption for U.S. automakers on his new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. The day after that, he said he was postponing many of the tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports for a month.

On Monday, in a blow to farmers in California and across the U.S., China imposed retaliatory duties of up to 15% on American agricultural products including chicken, corn, beef, pork, wheat and soybeans. Then on Wednesday, Trump’s 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports went into effect.

To counterbalance the effects of the tariffs on their bottom lines, businesses may have to overhaul their operations, said Jerry Nickelsburg, faculty director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

“The way in which firms react to that uncertainty is to not put all their eggs in one basket,” he said. “So they cut back on how much they would order, which means they’re going to produce less and they need fewer people — or if not fewer people, fewer hours for the people they have.”

The latest volley came Thursday morning, when Trump threatened to place a 200% tariff on wine and liquor from the European Union in response to the EU proposing a 50% tariff on American whiskey. About an hour later, he wrote in a follow-up post on Truth Social that the U.S. “doesn’t have Free Trade. We have ‘Stupid Trade.’”

“The Entire World is RIPPING US OFF!!!” he said.

Bolstering the economy was one of Trump’s core promises during the election, and tariffs are key to his strategy. He threatened to slap tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China on his first day back in office, explaining the decision as a way to crack down on illegal immigration and drugs.

But the escalating trade tensions have pummeled Wall Street for three weeks. On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed in correction territory, ending the day down 1.39%; the index is now 10.1% below its record close Feb. 19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 537.36 points, or 1.3%, closing at 40,813.57.

The fallout for farmers

The prolonged back-and-forth has also unsettled companies, both those that import goods from abroad and those that sell their products to foreign clients. California’s economy could be especially hard hit because of its heavy reliance on trade with China and Mexico, and because of its position as a global agricultural powerhouse.

Farmer Joe Del Bosque holds a raw almond in Firebaugh, Calif.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

California farmers grow the largest share of the nation’s food — more than a third of the country’s vegetables and more than three-quarters of its fruits and nuts are grown here — and the state’s fertile ground is a major supplier of produce to countries around the world. Farmers also rely heavily on fertilizer from Canada, which could cost more as the tariffs take hold.

“Farmers in California are going to be hurt particularly badly because almonds, soybeans and things like that are huge exports of the United States,” Aronson said.

The state also accounts for about 85% of wines produced in the United States and is home to thousands of grape growers and wineries, many of them small and generations-old. The Wine Institute says the industry supports employment for more than 420,000 Californians and generates $73 billion in economic activity in the state. Canada is the largest market for California wine.

A flurry of activity at the ports

Some L.A.-area companies have been stockpiling inventory to get ahead of expected price hikes tied to the tariffs, said Stephen Cheung, chief executive of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.

“A lot of them were hit pretty hard during the last trade war with China,” he said, “so they knew better than to wait and hope for the best.”

That has been reflected in shipping data from the ports in Long Beach and Los Angeles, which continue to record huge numbers thanks to several months of front-loading cargo ahead of Trump’s inauguration.

The Port of Long Beach moved 765,385 twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEUs, in February, a 13.4% increase from the previous year. January’s year-over-year growth was even larger: 952,733 TEUs — a unit of measurement based on the volume of a standard shipping container — were moved, representing a 41.4% increase.

An aerial view of the Port of Long Beach.

(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

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After Trump launched a trade war with China during his first term, the Port of Long Beach lost about 20% of expected Chinese cargo in 2019, Chief Executive Mario Cordero said. That was supplemented by a 10% increase in imports from countries in Southeast Asia including Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand. He expects the same thing to happen this time around.

In the coming months, Cordero said, the local economy could see supply chain disruptions, similar to what occurred during the pandemic, “if we continue on the path of aggressive and high” tariffs.

The Port of Los Angeles expects a 10% reduction in volume from last year amid Trump’s tariffs against China, Executive Director Gene Seroka said.

One of the largest seaports in the country, the L.A. port has seen sharp increases in cargo since last summer as businesses stocked up in anticipation of potential Trump tariffs. Just under 10.3 million TEUs, a near record, passed through the port last year.

Those numbers are likely to trend downward as tariffs take hold and the economy adjusts, Seroka said. “Fewer containers mean fewer jobs.”

L.A. businesses try to adjust

Economists say it’s difficult for companies to quickly change suppliers, and some may be loath to upend their supply chains given the ever-changing nature of Trump’s trade policies.

Some are trying anyway.

Francesca Grace, an interior designer and home stager in Los Angeles, said tariffs have already affected the availability and price of items including fabrics, wood and other building materials, and smaller decor pieces.

Supply chain delays have extended her project timelines in some cases to three to six weeks from immediate availability, and she’s contending with “at least a 25% rise” in costs for materials from China. As a result, she’s now trying to source all of her products locally, up from 75%.

“While this shift aligns with our values, it will also cause our pricing to increase,” Grace said. “We are doing everything we can to avoid increasing our pricing too much. The last thing we want is for these changes to negatively impact our business or make our designs inaccessible.”

Other businesses say they have little choice when it comes to where they get their merchandise.

“Lumber prices are what they are. There’s no sourcing it somewhere else, so we’re going to have to deal with it as it comes,” said Anawalt, the general manager at the Malibu hardware store. “It’s so beyond my control, there’s nothing I can do. I was panicked at first, but now I’m just going to wait.”