Pittsburg, PA
New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 12-7-2023
Week 14 of the NFL schedule kicks off with a pair of offensively challenged teams in different situations in relation to the AFC playoff picture on the gridiron in the Steel City. The New England Patriots are on the road as they travel to face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football. New England comes in off a dismal 6-0 home loss to the Chargers Sunday in their previous game, failing to cover the line as a 4.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh was downed 24-10 at home by Arizona in their previous game Sunday, losing outright as a six-point favorite. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Steelers own a 15-14 advantage but the Patriots have taken six of the last seven meetings. That includes a 17-14 road win in the most recent matchup on September 18, 2022.
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New England Patriots Seeking Offense
New England suffered their fifth straight loss and was held to seven points or less for the third straight game and the fifth time overall this season. The Patriots enter this week 2-10 and in the basement of the AFC East: they have the worst record in the AFC and are on the brink of playoff elimination. Against Los Angeles, the Bailey Zappe experiment wasn’t any better than the Mac Jones one at quarterback as the Patriots were stymied offensively. While the weather was a factor, the Patriots were unable to generate much of a sustained push in a game where a single touchdown could have made the difference. New England held a 257-241 edge in total offense, held a 31:10 to 28:50 advantage in time of possession and each team had 13 first downs. The Patriots committed the game’s lone turnover, went four of 14 on third down and surrendered five sacks in the loss.
The Patriots enter week 14 ranked 23rd in the league in passing offense as they average 186.8 yards per game through the air. New England is 22nd in the league in rushing offense with an average of 103.7 yards per contest on the ground. The Patriots are 32nd in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 12.3 points per game. New England is 16th in scoring defense as they allow 21.2 points per contest. Mac Jones is 224 of 325 passing for 2,120 yards with 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on the year. He is third on the team in rushing with 96 yards on the ground. Bailey Zappe is 32 of 64 for 299 yards and two interceptions this season. Rhamondre Stevenson leads the team on the ground with 156 carries for 619 yards and four scores this season. Ezekiel Elliott (112 carries, 429 yards, two TD) is the second back in the system for the Patriots. Kendrick Bourne is second on the team in the passing game with 37 receptions for 406 yards and four scores this season. Hunter Henry (32 catches, 313 yards, two TD), Mike Gesicki (21 grabs, 182 yards, TD), Demario Douglas (36 receptions, 410 yards, four TD), DeVante Parker (22 catches, 264 yards) and Stevenson (38 grabs, 238 yards) are each over 175 receiving yards this season. Chad Ryland is 14 of 14 on extra point attempts but is only 12 of 18 on field goal attempts with a long of 51 this season.
Monday’s early injury report was less than encouraging for the Patriots. Wide receivers Demario Douglas (concussion) and Kayshon Boutte (shoulder), running back Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle), cornerback Shaun Wade (illness) along with defensive lineman Deatrich Wise Jr. (illness) all were marked as did not practice. Defensive lineman Christian Barmore (shoulder), receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster (ankle) along with DeVante Parker (knee), linebacker Chris Board (back), tackle Trent Brown (ankle/hand), guard Sidy Sow (ankle) and offensive lineman Riley Reiff (knee) were all marked as limited. Watch for any updates on their statuses leading up to kickoff.
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Pittsburgh Steelers Hoping to Regroup, Hold Onto Playoff Spot
Pittsburgh struggled with a pair of lightning delays, injury issues and a bad Arizona team, ending up on the wrong side of a beatdown against a 2-10 opponent, at home no less. The Steelers enter this week 7-5 on the season and they hold the top wild card spot in the AFC though there are four teams with 7-5 marks at this point. Against Arizona, Pittsburgh was tied at three and held the ball with a fourth and goal situation after the first lightning delay in a 3-3 game. Najee Harris was stuffed, the Cardinals went 99 yards for a touchdown to take a 10-3 halftime lead and Pittsburgh never got even again. The Steelers held a 317-282 advantage in total offense, held a 30:47 to 29:13 edge in time of possession and both teams had 18 first downs. Pittsburgh committed the game’s lone turnover, went four of 11 on third down and came up empty on that critical fourth and goal situation.
The Steelers are 28th in the league in passing offense as they average 179.6 yards per game through the air. The team is 14th in the league in rushing offense as they put up an average of 115.3 yards per contest. Pittsburgh is 28th in the league in scoring offense with 16 points per contest and 6th in scoring defense as they allow 19.1 points per game. Kenny Pickett is 201 of 324 passing for 2,070 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions on the year. He contributes 54 yards and a score on the ground. Mitch Trubisky is 29 of 49 for 273 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in limited action. Najee Harris leads the team on the ground with 159 carries for 661 yards plus four scores. Jaylen Warren (102 carries, 601 yards, three TD) is the #2 back in the ground game this season. Diontae Johnson has 34 receptions totaling 418 yards and two scores on the season, putting him third on the team. George Pickens (44 catches, 748 yards, three TD), Pat Freiermuth (21 grabs, 209 yards, two TD), Allen Robinson II (26 catches, 204 yards), Calvin Austin III (17 grabs, 180 yards, TD) and Warren (38 receptions, 243 yards) have been active as well. Chris Boswell has hit all 16 extra point attempts and 22 of 24 field goal attempts this season with a long of 57 on the year.
Pittsburgh has their own injury issues on the first injury report of the week. Pickett (ankle), guard Isaac Seumalo (shoulder), linebacker Elandon Roberts (groin), safety James Pierre (shoulder), cornerback Patrick Peterson (non-injury related/rest) and defensive tackle Cam Heyward (non-injury related/rest) all were considered as did not practice. Defensive tackle Keeanu Benton (obilique) was limited. Pickett underwent surgery on his ankle Monday and is expected to miss two to four weeks: he will NOT play this week. Trubisky will start with Mason Rudolph as the backup: the team signed Trace McSorley to the practice squad.
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This isn’t a game for the faint of heart to tune into watch. Both teams have gotten dismal performances from their quarterbacks this season and it may well end up being a battle of backup quarterbacks, depending on whether Bill Belichick sticks with Zappe this week. New England’s offense has been brutal all season long as they are last in the league in scoring offense. Both teams are far better on the defensive side of the ball this season and it could come down to turnovers as to which side emerges victorious. Pittsburgh has at least been able to move the ball the last couple of weeks, which is more than one can say with New England. The Steelers win this game but it’s not one that most people are going to be interested in turning on: have some sympathy for Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit.
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers -6
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New England comes into this game having stayed under the total in nine of their 12 games this season. The Patriots have stayed under the number in four of their five road games this season and they have logged four straight unders this season entering this game. Pittsburgh has stayed under the total in 10 of their 12 games on the year. Five of the Steelers’ seven home games this season have wound up under the number. This number is ridiculously low and has been trending downward: after opening at 32.5 points, it’s already down to 30 or 30.5 points as of Monday afternoon. Even with that low number, even that may be too high given the way these teams have looked offensively. Take the under in this contest.
Prediction: Under 30.5