The political spotlight will shine brightly on Pennsylvania Tuesday night, as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris take the stage in Philadelphia for a high-stakes debate in the most populous swing state. With polls showing a tight race, both candidates know that Pennsylvania could determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
No Democrat has won the White House without Pennsylvania since 1948, making the stakes even higher for Harris.Trump, meanwhile, is looking to repeat his 2016 success in the state, where he narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton before losing to Joe Biden in 2020.
“People say, ‘If you win Pennsylvania, you’re going to win the whole thing,’” Trump told supporters in Wilkes-Barre last month. The former president has made frequent visits to Pennsylvania, where he narrowly escaped an assassination attempt during a speech in Butler County in July. Harris, too, has been a frequent visitor, with plans to return on Friday to continue rallying her base.
The debate is set to take place at the National Constitution Center, located in Philadelphia, a Democratic stronghold. Harris aims to reassemble the coalition of voters that helped Biden win in 2020, focusing on mobilizing key groups such as college students, Black voters, and women motivated by the protection of abortion rights. Winning big in Philadelphia and its suburbs will be crucial for Harris as she tries to offset Trump’s dominance in the state’s rural areas.
Republicans are banking on voters’ concerns about the economy and inflation, hoping to chip away at Democrats’ stronghold in Pennsylvania’s suburban areas. “A lot of people are saying, ‘We need the American economy to become strong again,’” said Lawrence Tabas, chair of Pennsylvania’s Republican Party.

While Harris is focused on economic issues like capping prescription drug prices and lowering childcare costs, the debate may prove pivotal in winning over undecided voters. Political experts suggest that many Pennsylvanians are still learning about Harris as a candidate, with her late entry into the race leaving room for voters to make up their minds before Election Day.
The path to the presidency runs through Pennsylvania, and with both candidates eyeing the state’s electoral votes, the outcome of this debate could play a decisive role in shaping the 2024 race.

Former US President and Republican candidate Donald Trump raised concerns over the integrity of Pennsylvania’s mail-in ballots, citing claims of election fraud.
In a statement on his social media platform Truth, Trump referred to an interview with expert Tucker Carlson, alleging that “20% of the mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania are fraudulent.”
He expressed frustration over the lack of action by authorities, asking, “Where is the U.S.Attorney General and FBI to INVESTIGATE?”
Trump further called on the Pennsylvania Republican Party and the Republican National Committee (RNC) to respond to these concerns. “We will WIN Pennsylvania by a lot, unless the Dems are allowed to CHEAT,” Trump said, urging the RNC to “ACTIVATE NOW.”

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris has razor-thin leads over former President Donald Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, but the two candidates are tied in the crucial state of Pennsylvania, according to a new CBS/YouGov poll—reflecting a tight race in the key battleground states with just two months before the election.

Key Facts

Big Number

2. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in North Carolina, 49% to 47%, among registered voters, according to a late August Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, reversing the 48% to 46% lead Trump held there in July. North Carolina is widely considered a battleground state this year following changes in the population over the past decade that have shifted it more toward the left.

Tangent

Harris is receiving more support from younger, non-white and female voters—demographics who showed indecision over their support for Biden before he dropped out—according to a recent New York Times survey, which noted Harris had support from 84% of Black voters in the polls, a higher share of support than Biden had before withdrawing from the race in July.

Key Background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, despite insisting he would continue his campaign amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his June 27 debate performance. He immediately endorsed Harris, she announced plans to seek the nomination and officially became the nominee in the first week of August when 99% of delegates voted for her in a virtual roll call. Prior to Biden dropping out of the race, polls consistently found Trump would beat him in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Further Reading

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Trump Narrowly Leads In Most Polls After Biden Drops Out (Forbes)

Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)

Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election (Forbes)