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The lack of primary activity in New Hampshire speaks volumes about Trump’s standing

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The lack of primary activity in New Hampshire speaks volumes about Trump’s standing


Democratic 2020 U.S. presidential candidate and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg casts a shadow whereas talking at a marketing campaign city corridor assembly in North Conway, New Hampshire, on Jan. 3, 2020.Brian Snyder/Reuters

There are a lot of indicators of the state of American presidential politics: the myriad ballot outcomes; the varied measures of the well being of the economic system; technical research measuring media consideration. However proper now, the surest indicator is a fridge on the second flooring of a low-slung white constructing beside the railroad tracks on Seavey Road right here.

Within the freeze of a frosty February, that fridge is the barometer that tells the story of the 2024 presidential election. There’s nothing there.

For many years presidential candidates trudging by the snows within the important New Hampshire main have submitted themselves to the questions of the seven workers members of the Conway Every day Solar, a free newspaper with a circulation of 15,500 however no paid print subscribers that enjoys an outsized affect within the Mount Washington Valley.

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The newsroom fridge is a magnet to politicians with visions of the White Home, who through the years have taken a Sharpie in hand and affixed their thick black signatures to its doorways and sides. Former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton did it twice, and so did Senator Bernie Sanders (as soon as on his birthday, prompting the baker subsequent door to current him with a cake). For those who look intently, you will notice the scratchings of Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, John McCain and Marco Rubio.

However there aren’t any signatures from 2024 candidates, and that’s as a result of the presidential marketing campaign is taking over the traits of the eight-month interval earlier than the brutal battling of the Second World Battle. That was referred to as the Phoney Battle, and American politics – measured by the dependable civic barometer of the Conway Every day Solar fridge – is in an unusually phoney interval.

Beneath the floor – just like the microbial life at nighttime reaches under New Hampshire’s frozen lakes – a lot is happening. In stealth, challengers to former president Donald Trump are calling potential donors. Within the deepest secrecy, their closest associates are approaching the activists who’re the infantry of the group required to win the Republican caucuses in Iowa, which historically conducts the primary political caucuses, and to seize the competition right here, the primary main within the nation. In off-the-record conversations, the potential candidates are conserving their prospects, and their hopes, alive by briefing political correspondents.

However, other than former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, who late final month introduced her intention to run, they aren’t saying their candidacies.

Trump’s rising listing of Republican 2024 challengers revive fears of 2016 repeat

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In an enterprise that reliably speaks of political change however that hews to custom, the putative 2024 contenders aren’t reverting to type.

By this time within the 1972 political cycle, senator George McGovern, the eventual Democratic nominee, already was a declared candidate. By this time within the 1984 cycle, senator Gary Hart of Colorado, who crafted a shocking New Hampshire main victory and nearly gained the Democratic presidential nomination, was an official candidate. Within the 2008 cycle, Mr. Obama, who gained the Iowa caucuses, and Ms. Clinton, who gained the first right here, had been in.

However the political hustings listed here are as quiet because the summit of Mount Washington, which final week recorded the coldest wind-chill marker in American historical past, at -78 C.

There are a number of causes for the sound of silence, and considered one of them is the imaginative and prescient softly creeping of Mr. Trump unleashing a fusillade of merciless criticism. The candidates’ calculation: Let others get out in entrance first and allow them to take in the bombardment of bluster.

Ms. Haley, who’s to go to right here subsequent week, already has obtained the opening volley of Mr. Trump’s rage. GOP Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina is sticking his toes within the chilly waters of Iowa within the following week. However nobody else – not Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, not former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, not former governor Larry Hogan of Maryland, all doable candidates – is stirring in public.

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Another excuse for hesitation is big-donor warning. These rich funders noticed how a crowded Republican area in 2016 allowed Mr. Trump to prevail as a result of the opposite 16 candidates cut up the anti-Trump vote. “The mega donors are going to maintain their chequebooks within the desk for some time,” Dave Carney, a nationwide Republican marketing consultant primarily based in New Hampshire, mentioned in an interview, “as a result of they noticed what occurred in 2016.”

It’s not that Mr. Trump is invulnerable. Though the state’s Republican Occasion is mainly an entirely owned subsidiary of the previous president, common GOP governor Chris Sununu is a outstanding Trump critic. He gained his fourth time period by greater than 15 proportion factors in November – concerning the margin of Mr. Trump’s victory within the main right here in 2016. And there may be ample proof, in press experiences and informal conversations, that “Trump Fatigue” is rising right here.

The polls present this. The extremely regarded Granite State Ballot launched late final month by the College of New Hampshire Survey Heart confirmed Mr. DeSantis main Mr. Trump by 12 proportion factors. Half of these polled mentioned they didn’t need Mr. Trump to undertake one other presidential marketing campaign, whereas two-thirds wished Mr. DeSantis to run. Although Mr. Trump charges a 47-per-cent approval ranking amongst New Hampshire Republicans, Mr. DeSantis checks in with a 73-per-cent approval ranking.

Even so, the New Hampshire political scene resembles nothing a lot as an unlimited political sport of The place’s Waldo? Granite State politicos, keen to start attending casual gatherings in espresso outlets and truck stops and girding to fireplace their questions at town-hall conferences, are questioning the place’s the marketing campaign.

It’s coming, to make sure. However the candidates have calculated it’s of their curiosity to carry again.

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“These candidates have to construct a monetary infrastructure prematurely and as soon as they announce, they should do stuff to draw consideration,” mentioned Mr. Carney, the marketing consultant with deep roots right here. “That’s costly. You possibly can’t wait too lengthy, although, since you need to be within the debates as soon as they begin.”



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New Hampshire

POTUS to visit Boston next week, first New England visit since March

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POTUS to visit Boston next week, first New England visit since March


President Joe Biden is heading to Boston next week after he makes a stop in New Hampshire, the White House said according to multiple reports.

On Tuesday, Biden is expected to hold an official White House event in Merrimack, N.H., before he travels down to Boston, WCVB-TV reported citing the White House. It will be his second trip to New Hampshire this year after he was in the Granite State in March.

The last time he was in Boston, back in December, Biden appeared at a James Taylor benefit concert where funds went to the Biden Victory Fund. He attended several fundraisers, including one where he suggested the nation is at a “real inflection point in history,” hinting at the election and the likelihood of facing former President Donald Trump again in November.

“Because this time we’re running against an election denier-in-chief. Trump is not even hiding the ball anymore,” Biden said, according to a pool report. “He’s simply not hiding the ball. He’s telling us what he wants to do. He’s proud to say he killed Roe v. Wade by the [U.S. Supreme] court he appointed.

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“He’s running again to get rid of the Affordable Care Act,” Biden continued. “I could go on. But let’s be clear about the side — what’s at stake in 2024: Donald Trump and his MAGA Republicans are determined to destroy American democracy.”

Then-Republican National Committee Chairperson Ronna McDaniel slammed Biden at the time for getting “cozy” with “his elite donors.”



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Kingston Man Indicted On 10 Child Sexual Abuse Images Charges: Superior Court Roundup

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Kingston Man Indicted On 10 Child Sexual Abuse Images Charges: Superior Court Roundup


BRENTWOOD, NH — A Rockingham County grand jury indicted the following people recently.

Zachary John Fenton, 28, of Washington Street in Quincy, Massachusetts, on robbery and theft by unauthorized taking, both felonies, as well as two simple assault charges. He acted in concert with Leanne Mercer to steal merchandise from and rob Home Depot in Londonderry on Oct. 9, 2023, and in the process, Fenton punched and slapped two people while fleeing, according to the indictment.

Daniel H. Gage, 45, of New Boston Road in Kingston on 10 felony counts of possession of child sexual abuse images. He was accused of possessing an .mp4 and .jpgs in Kingston on Sept. 19, 2022.

Justin C. Gautreau, 36, of Dickinson Street in Lisbon on possession of crack cocaine, possession of meth, and theft by unauthorized taking charges, both felonies. He was accused of stealing merchandise from Dick’s Sporting Goods in Salem on April 10, 2022, after being convicted twice before on theft charges.

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Thomas P. Gilmore, 38, of Ocean Boulevard in Hampton on a felony possession of fentanyl charge on Feb. 26, 2022, in Hampton.

Noe Abigail Gomez Najera, 53, of 2nd Street in Lowell, MA, on a felony possession of cocaine charge in Londonderry on March 18, 2023.

Joshua Eric Goodwin, 43, of Lund Drive in Hudson on a felony possession of testosterone cypionate charge on June 11, 2023, in Londonderry.

Luis Enrique Guerrero Martinez, 30, of Newbury Street in Lawrence, MA, on possession of meth with intent to dispense, possession of fentanyl, and possession of meth charges, all felonies, on Jan. 5 in Salem. He was accused of possessing an ounce or more of meth.

Daniel Alexander Guerrero Mejia, 21, of Boston, MA, on possession of cocaine with intent to distribute and conspiracy-possession of cocaine with intent to distribute charges, both felonies. He was accused of possessing 5 ounces or more of cocaine in Plaistow on Jan. 24.

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Rhiannon Greenberg, 34, of Parish Lane in Boxford, MA, on possession of fentanyl and two forgery charges, all felonies. She was accused of passing a fake $20 bill and a counterfeit $50 bill in Seabrook on Dec. 6, 2022.

Do you have a news tip? Please email it to tony.schinella@patch.com. View videos on Tony Schinella’s YouTube.com channel or Rumble.com channel. Follow the NH politics Twitter account @NHPatchPolitics for all our campaign coverage.



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Latest inflation figures are good news – even if they give a lot of people heartburn • New Hampshire Bulletin

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Latest inflation figures are good news – even if they give a lot of people heartburn • New Hampshire Bulletin


The U.S. economy is slowing, but not crashing. In the dismal science, this is what counts as good news.

That’s the message I took away from the latest inflation data, released May 15, 2024, which showed U.S. consumer prices rising 3.4 percent in the 12 months to April 2024. This is down slightly from the 3.5 percent year-over-year increase reported in March 2024.

In other words, while prices are rising, they’re not going up as sharply as they once were. That’s good news for shoppers; the U.S. economy is far from the 9.1 percent annual inflation seen in June 2022.

While energy and shelter prices increased in April, these gains were relatively modest. Meanwhile, food prices remained steady compared to last year and even declined by 0.2 percent compared to March. What’s more, people in the market for a car were in luck: New and used vehicle prices fell 0.4 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively, in April.

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The “core” consumer price index – which doesn’t include volatile food and energy prices and is often considered better at predicting future inflation than so-called “headline” CPI figures – is also down slightly. After posting a year-over-year increase of 3.9 percent in January and 3.8 percent in February and March, it slowed to 3.6 percent in April.

So the overall report is relatively positive: It didn’t show the uptick in inflation that many consumers feared, and reported inflation rates were actually slightly lower than market expectations.

As an economist, I see this data report as yet more evidence that economic growth is slowing – in a good way. The economy grew at a lower-than-expected 1.6 percent rate in the first quarter of 2024, according to the most recent gross domestic product data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The most recent jobs report also showed a slowdown in hiring, and the latest data on job vacancies similarly showed the labor market cooling off.

Why the Fed is paying close attention

The Federal Reserve’s main objective is to strike a balance between two goals: maintaining stable employment and ensuring price stability. It does this by managing and influencing interest rates.

Lowering rates stimulates the economy, which encourages economic growth and job creation – but that can fuel inflation. Raising rates does the opposite: Economic growth slows, which dampens inflation, but also hinders employment.

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So, when inflation started increasing dramatically after the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve responded with a two-year campaign of rate hikes – they’re currently at a 23-year high. Since this raises the cost of borrowing, investors and potential homebuyers are keen for the Fed to dial back its rates.

After May’s report, I don’t believe the Federal Reserve will be in any rush to cut interest rates from their current elevated level. There’s a slowdown, to be sure, but the slowdown is so steady that it’s not pulling prices down in any rapid fashion.

This is no doubt frustrating for the Fed – which has an inflation target of 2 percent – as well as for potential homebuyers. But it’s evidence that the economy is stable at the moment. Inflation isn’t surging, and consumer spending, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is still growing. In March, consumer spending increased 5.8 percent year over year, up from February’s 4.9 percent rate.

All eyes on the American shopper

Going forward, hopes for a “soft landing” – economist-speak for when the Fed slows inflation without triggering a recession – will depend in large measure on U.S. shoppers. Consumer spending makes up roughly two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product.

If American shoppers suddenly stop spending, then inflation will slow considerably, job vacancies will evaporate, and gross domestic product could contract. At that point, the Fed will turn attention away from inflation and toward economic stimulus, and rates will fall.

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I mention this because a recent report by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis showed a troubling uptick in consumer credit card delinquency rates. If much of the recent increase in consumer spending is due to Americans relying more on credit cards, then the economy could be on shakier ground than it appears.

The good news is that delinquency rates are still way below where they were ahead of the Great Recession, which lasted from December 2007 through June 2009. So, while this data may be troubling, there’s no need to panic just yet.

In short, while inflation rates still aren’t to the Fed’s liking, the economy – for now – appears to be on a stable path.The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.



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