CONCORD — Months of campaigning saw the city of Manchester used for political gain, both candidates sharing personal stories of miscarriage, and New Hampshire awash in political advertising. Now, the most competitive governor’s election in the country, between Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Joyce Craig, is finally upon us.
Polls have shown the race to be neck and neck, with no candidate emerging as a clear favorite. Ayotte, a former U.S. senator, has benefited from name recognition and the endorsement of popular outgoing Republican Gov. Chris Sununu. Craig, former mayor of Manchester, has been lifted by Vice President Kamala Harris’ popularity in the state during a presidential election year and support from Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and other prominent Democrats.
Ayotte and Craig started campaigning against each other even before winning their party nominations in the Sept. 10 primary. Since the beginning, Ayotte has gone after Craig for her tenure in Manchester and Craig has hit Ayotte heavily on the issue of abortion.
Here are six of the defining issues and campaign themes that could be decisive for voters on Tuesday, Nov. 5:
Abortion has been a top issue throughout the campaign
All year, abortion has played a defining role in the race between Craig and Ayotte.
Craig and New Hampshire Democrats have repeatedly suggested in debates, speaking events, and aggressive advertising that Ayotte is not to be trusted on the issue of abortion and that she might further seek to restrict access in the state. New Hampshire’s current law bans abortion after 24 weeks.
Ayotte has a record of being further to the right on abortion than the average New Hampshire voter. As a senator, she was an original co-sponsor of a bill that would have banned abortion after 20 weeks, she voted several times to defund Planned Parenthood. She also served as the “sherpa” for Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch, who voted to end Roe v. Wade.
Ayotte has said many times she supports New Hampshire’s law and would veto any legislation that aims at restricting it further. She supports abortion being a states’ rights issue and said she would fight to keep it that way at a recent debate.
The issue has become personal, as both candidates have released television ads describing their own experience with miscarriages.
The city of Manchester caught in the political crossfire
Manchester, New Hampshire’s largest city, has been the subject of the bulk of Ayotte’s attacks on Craig. She has pointed to homelessness and drug use issues in the city, saying that New Hampshire “can’t allow Joyce Craig to do to New Hampshire what she did to Manchester.”
In return, Craig has criticized Ayotte for casting the city in a negative light and instead touted her achievements as mayor, like creating housing and a hot job market while decreasing violent crime and opioid overdoses.
Ayotte running on anti-Massachusetts platform
Massachusetts has been a central theme in Ayotte’s campaign: namely don’t let New Hampshire become like Massachusetts.
“Don’t MASS Up New Hampshire,” her slogan reads.
That line of messaging includes everything from taxes to immigration: Ayotte has accused Craig of wanting to make New Hampshire a sanctuary state for immigrants and to raise taxes, both of which Craig has denied. And Ayotte has criticized Craig heavily for campaigning with Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey.
Her message may resonate with some: a Suffolk/Boston Globe/USA TODAY poll from Oct. 2023 showed 32% of New Hampshire voters likely to vote in the Republican primary thought that too many Massachusetts residents are moving to New Hampshire.
However, she also risks alienating some voters as Massachusetts is the largest source of migrants to New Hampshire, and less than half of the state’s residents were born in the Granite State.
Huge amounts of money raised and spent
It’s the most expensive governor’s race in New Hampshire history.
Ayotte has raised over $21 million for her New Hampshire gubernatorial campaign, according to the last finance report before the general election on Nov. 5.
Her Democratic opponent, former Manchester mayor, Joyce Craig, has raised a little over $7.3 million.
The bulk of Ayotte’s funds (82%) come from businesses/organizations, and the majority of Craig’s funds (65%) come from individuals.
Political experts in New Hampshire were expecting the cash flow to be high, especially after a scandal in the North Carolina governor’s race made New Hampshire’s race the closest gubernatorial race in the country and freed up national funds.
Indeed, the Republican Governor’s Association’s Live Free PAC has given $12 million to Ayotte, and the Democratic Governor’s Association has donated $1.7 million to Craig. Those numbers don’t include other RGA and DGA funds not directly given to the candidates but that have been used to promote them, as well as other outside groups that have spent money on ads.
The amount of money means that the regional airwaves have been flooded with Ayotte and Craig ads.
Money is important for messaging through television or online advertising, UNH Survey Center Director Andrew Smith said, but it’s not everything.
“Money doesn’t necessarily win you the race,” Smith said. “You just have to have enough money.”
Both candidates, he said, have enough money.
The Trump factor
Trump has been a thorny issue for Ayotte in both the primary and general election campaign, as well as in past elections.
In 2016, Ayotte rescinded her support for Trump after the “Access Hollywood” tape was published, showing him bragging about making sexually aggressive and crude comments towards women. She then lost her Senate seat to Democrat Maggie Hassan in a very close race.
In 2024, Ayotte endorsed Trump but has not made him a central part of her campaign, avoiding a full embrace of him.
At a recent debate, Ayotte sidestepped a question about continuing to support Trump despite his 34 felony convictions, instead explaining that she saw the election as a choice between what the country looked like under his administration vs. President Joe Biden’s administration.
“I think the country was better off just in terms of cost, what we’re paying and safety when he was in office,” she said.
Craig responded by asking Ayotte where she would “draw the line.”
“Is it when he sexually assaults women? Is it when he boasts about Hitler? Is it when he tries to overthrow democracy?” Craig said.
Ayotte’s poor relationship with the former president as well as his lack of popularity in the state means she will likely have to run far ahead of the former president in New Hampshire to win the election.
Interest and dividends tax a late emerging issue
The interest and dividends tax may sound boring, but it has emerged as a top campaign issue, as recently reported by New Hampshire Bulletin.
The interest and dividends tax is a state tax on distributions, dividends, and interest income often accrued from investments.
Any New Hampshire resident who received more than $2,400 per year from any of those categories – or $4,800 per year if filing jointly – must pay the tax.
Most Granite Staters do not pay the interest and dividends tax, data shows, and it is largely paid by upper income taxpayers.
Seacoast NH election 2024 voter guide: Read about candidates before going to polls
New Hampshire Republicans moved to repeal the interest and dividends tax, which has been phased out since 2022 and will be eliminated for the 2025 tax year and beyond.
Craig has assailed this choice, portraying the move as a handout to the wealthy. She said she would push to restore the tax and modify it to focus on higher earners.
Ayotte, meanwhile, has attacked that stance and used it to say Craig supports raising taxes.
Reporting by Ethan DeWitt of New Hampshire Bulletin is used in this report.
