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Analysis | How close is Nikki Haley in New Hampshire?

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Analysis | How close is Nikki Haley in New Hampshire?


If any question remains about whether former president Donald Trump will skate to the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it could well be answered Jan. 23 in New Hampshire.

That’s when the one early state that looks somewhat close will hold its primary. As I wrote in my new newsletter The Campaign Moment on Monday (sign up here), it all comes down to whether Nikki Haley can keep it close or, better yet for her, win. At that point she would hope to recast the rest of the nominating contest.

Two new polls released Tuesday morning tell pretty different tales about how likely New Hampshire is to assist her.

A CNN-University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll showed Haley creeping to within single digits of Trump, 39 percent to 32 percent. A Boston Globe-USA Today-Suffolk University poll, meanwhile, showed she trails by 20 points, 46-26.

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So which might be closer to the mark? And what do they suggest about what lies ahead?

The first thing to note is that both polls show Haley gaining. The CNN poll has Haley shrinking her deficit from 22 percentage points in November to seven points today. The Suffolk poll has her shrinking it from 30 points in late September to 20 points today.

The CNN poll has long indicated that Trump’s support in New Hampshire is softer than what other polls have shown, so its tightening looks more pronounced.

Beyond that, there are a couple of key differences in the CNN and Suffolk polls.

One difference is in voters who aren’t registered Republicans — a vital demographic that Haley needs to own, given Trump’s huge advantage among registered Republicans. While the CNN poll shows Haley leading among them by 26 points (43-17), the Suffolk poll shows her lead at just half that (36-23).

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The biggest difference, though, is education. While the CNN poll has Haley trailing by just 15 points (46-31) among voters with a high school education or less, the Suffolk poll shows Trump with a massive 70-point lead (80-10) among those voters.

This is significant because Trump often excels with less formally educated voters. It’s difficult to compare New Hampshire to other states or the national polls given its unusual electorate. But if Haley is keeping it as close with these voters as the CNN poll suggests, that would be remarkable. (And they are a large chunk of the poll, accounting for 37 percent of the sample.)

To the extent that the CNN poll does reflect reality, it could be particularly heartening for Haley.

In addition to showing her trimming her deficit to single digits, it also shows both her and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie (12 percent) combining for more votes than Trump. It’s the first high-quality poll to make such a finding.

Christie has thus far rejected suggestions that he might make way for Haley in the name of trying to defeat Trump. But such comments are to be expected; you don’t signal you might drop out while you’re still hoping to compete. And Christie has criticized Trump more harshly than any other candidate, signaling early on that his campaign was about stopping Trump.

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The CNN poll suggests that if Christie were to bow out, it would almost certainly bolster Haley further and possibly even allow her to compete for the win in the Granite State.

Christie draws his support almost exclusively from those who aren’t registered Republicans (taking 23 percent of them), moderates (26 percent) and left-leaning voters (40 percent), compared with almost no support among registered Republicans or conservatives. Previous UNH Survey Center polling suggested Christie’s base overwhelmingly voted for President Biden in the 2020 general election. Haley is the clear home for those voters if Christie is no longer an option, and they still vote in the GOP primary.

Trump could also benefit if Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) or Vivek Ramaswamy don’t make it to New Hampshire, given how much their bases overlap with his. DeSantis has become something of a nonfactor in New Hampshire, taking just 8 percent in the Suffolk poll and 5 percent in the CNN poll (which shows him in fifth place behind Ramaswamy). And it’s plausible that their voters wouldn’t go as strongly for Trump as Christie’s would go for Haley, given that these are voters who have so far declined to back the presumptive nominee.

What’s clear from the new polls is that while Iowa’s caucuses are next week, New Hampshire the following week is the ballgame, at least in the first two states. How competitive that ballgame will be — and whether Haley could actually reshape the race if she gets the outcome she needs — is to be determined.



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New Hampshire

NH dog facility owner charged with animal cruelty after video surfaces online

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NH dog facility owner charged with animal cruelty after video surfaces online


A 26-year-old woman, who owns a dog training and kennel facility in Brentwood, New Hampshire, has been arrested after a video surfaced online showing apparent animal cruelty in Methuen, Massachusetts.

Brentwood police notified the Methuen Police Department about the video on Jan. 2. A preliminary investigation then identified the woman in the video as Maddison Eastman.

Police obtained an arrest warrant for Eastman on two counts of animal cruelty, and she turned herself into Lawrence District Court last Wednesday.

Eastman was arraigned Friday. Information from her court appearance wasn’t immediately available, and officials haven’t released further details about what Eastman allegedly did.

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Methuen police said they’ll have no further comment at this time and referred all inquiries to the Essex County District Attorney’s Office.



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David M. Parr

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David M. Parr


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David M. Parr, 63, of Merrimack NH passed away on Wednesday, January 7th, 2026 at the Community Hospice House in Merrimack after a long battle with cancer.

He was born in Nashua, NH on September 26th, 1962, one of six children to the late Albert and Pauline (Fish) Parr. He was raised in Nashua and was a graduate of Nashua High School, Class of 1981.

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David spent his entire career working in sales for several building products companies. In his free time, he enjoyed working around his house perfecting his lawn and yard, fly fishing, camping with a great campfire and stories, hiking, backpacking, watching the Bruins and Patriots, and following politics. Most of all he loved raising and spending time with his children with his wife and constantly sharing his dad jokes to make them laugh. He was so proud of both Brendan and Shannon and the amazing adults they became.

Along with his parents, he was pre-deceased by an infant brother, Michael Parr and a brother-in-law, Robert LeBrun.

He will be forever loved and remembered by his wife of 31 years, Lorraine (Plante) Parr; two children, Brendan Parr and his fiancée Anna Conte, and Shannon Parr; five siblings, Susan Cole-Kelly, Debra Murphy, Bonnie and her husband Patrick Mihealsick, Lauren LeBrun and Dan Parr and his wife Darcey along with numerous nieces and nephews.

Visitation hours will be held at the Rivet Funeral Home, 425 Daniel Webster Highway, Merrimack NH on Friday, January 16th, 2026 from 5 – 7 PM. A Memorial Mass of Christian Burial will be celebrated at Our Lady of Mercy Church, 16 Baboosic Lake Road, Merrimack on Saturday, January 17th at 9 AM. Burial will follow at Last Rest Cemetery.

Kindly visit rivetfuneralhome.com to leave an online condolence for the family.

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High number of NH households lack emergency savings – Valley News

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High number of NH households lack emergency savings – Valley News


A broken furnace, medical bill, or car repair could quickly become a financial crisis if it were to happen in any one of over 120,000 New Hampshire households with very little savings. An analysis recently published by the Urban Institute found that nearly one in four New Hampshire households lacked at least $2,000 in non-retirement savings in 2022, representing a basic financial cushion for weathering emergencies. According to the analysis, about 23% of New Hampshire households did not have non-retirement savings, such as money in a checking or savings account, totaling more than $2,000 in 2022. That figure rose to 30% for Granite Staters in rural northern and western New Hampshire, 32% for Manchester residents, and 31% for Granite Staters of color statewide.

The Urban Institute published this analysis in November 2025 using the latest consistently available data for each type of financial well-being measured. A previous version of the analysis, published in 2022, found about 26 percent of New Hampshire households lacked $2,000 in emergency savings in 2019, although the $2,000 threshold was not adjusted for inflation between those two years. The researchers also measured overall wealth, income relative to key expenses, and certain other metrics.

Unpaid debt

Researchers at the Urban Institute also found that about 16% of Granite Staters had some form of debt that was at least 60 days past due in 2023. Two percent of all residents specifically had delinquent student loan debts.

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Housing expenses

About 87% of all households with less than $50,000 in annual income, which was about one in four New Hampshire households in 2023, paid more than 30% of their incomes for their housing costs, such as rent or mortgage payments, utilities, property taxes, and insurance costs. For Granite Staters of color, about 96% of households with these lower incomes were cost-burdened, or paying at least 30% of income, by housing costs.

This percentage varied for different areas within the state as well. While about 78% of all residents with lower incomes in Coos, Grafton and Sullivan counties combined were cost-burdened by housing, about 95% of Manchester residents and 91% of Strafford County and northern Rockingham County residents were cost-burdened in this manner.

Utility costs

About one in five New Hampshire households paid more than 10% of household income solely on utility costs, including electricity, water, gas, and heating fuels. While the lowest percentage of households facing these utility costs were near Nashua and a few other relatively urban parts of the state, about 46% of households in Coos, Grafton, and Sullivan counties, and 41% in eastern central New Hampshire encompassing Carroll and Belknap counties, paid more than 10% in utility costs.

Access to emergency savings varies throughout New Hampshire

Savings can be difficult to accumulate for a variety of reasons, and the primary factors include income and expenses. Both lower incomes and higher expenses make saving more difficult, while their opposites enable more opportunities to set money aside for a time of need. Some of the variations in savings across New Hampshire could be rooted in both factors.

The approximately 23% of Granite State households without at least $2,000 in savings during 2022 represents about 129,600 households of the estimated 557,200 in New Hampshire that year. In Coos, Grafton, and Sullivan Counties, which include the two counties (Coos and Sullivan) with the highest poverty rates in the state, about 30% of households lacked that level of savings. Coos County also had a median household income that was only slightly more than half of Rockingham County in southeastern New Hampshire. The cost of buying a house has also increased fastest in rural parts of New Hampshire, although the overall cost is still lower than in southeastern New Hampshire.

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In Manchester, where 32% of households did not have at least $2,000 in emergency savings (the highest rate of the measured areas in the state) in 2022, the cost of renting the median two-bedroom apartment increased 31% from 2020 to 2024 to $1,838 per month. Median household income, at about $77,000, was below the statewide median of about $95,600 during the 2019 to 2023 period. Increasing costs, particularly regional housing costs, likely made saving very difficult for households in Manchester and elsewhere, particularly the families that are more likely to see incomes fall short of expenses than ten years ago.

Wealth is a critical factor and difficult to measure

Most common measures of financial well-being are based on income. Income is often measured through surveys and tax returns, and income from employment is also reported by businesses and other employers. As a result, income is more commonly measured than wealth. Income measures the money coming into a household in a given time period, while wealth measures the assets owned by the members of a household.

Wealth provides a form of economic security that promotes resilience, including the ability to weather a job loss or an unexpected expense, such as a car repair or medical costs from an illness. Even a higher income does not provide the security of having a substantial amount of money in a bank account, as that income could change, or new costs could appear, relatively quickly. Wealth provides a financial cushion that can be critical for individuals and families in times of need.

Local data difficult to access

While national measures provide insights into wealth and wealth inequality, which has risen substantially over the last six decades, local data are much harder to collect than data about the income of residents in states and counties. Researchers at the Urban Institute used publicly-available data and collaborated with a major credit bureau, employing anonymized data, to get a sample of about 10 million people nationwide. They also utilized models to understand the likely conditions facing people in less-populated areas and in smaller population groups when the sample sizes themselves were too small to create reliable estimates.

These data and methods allowed the Urban Institute researchers to estimate the percentage of households that had less than $2,000 in their bank accounts, stocks, mutual funds, and other non-retirement assets. However, the data were not granular enough to allow for consistent town- or county-level analyses in New Hampshire. The data were organized by regions of the state (and country) with a total of 100,000 people or more. While data for Manchester can be separated from the rest of the state with this strategy, every other city or town is combined with at least one other community in these data.

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Different than other surveys

This methodology is notably different from a commonly-cited national-level survey conducted by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking, which asks U.S. residents nationwide a series of questions. These questions include asking about the methods the individual would use to pay for an unexpected $400 expense.

The latest survey indicates that 37% of U.S. adults would not have paid for an unexpected $400 expense with cash, savings, or a credit card to be paid off by the end of the month. While that indicates more than one in three U.S. adults do not have the savings to easily cover this expense, 13% said they would be unable to pay it by any means; others indicated they would carry a balance on a credit card, borrow money from a friend, family member, bank, or payday lender, or sell something to help pay for the expense. That suggests many adults would not spend their bank account down to zero, perhaps to preserve some wealth cushion for other unexpected expenses or to avoid fees.

While these survey data offer key insights and annual updates allowing for helpful comparisons over time, the Urban Institute’s methods seek to measure the actual balances in household accounts. The Urban Institute’s data also provide insights into the financial resilience of New Hampshire residents specifically.

Financial situations fragile for many Granite State families

Without $2,000 in savings, a Granite Stater could quickly spend their liquid assets to pay for an unexpected car repair, needed fixes for a house or an appliance, the deductible on their health insurance after an injury or illness but before coverage begins, losing a job, or other factors that could effectively require immediate, unforeseen costs. That would potentially lead to debt that could be difficult to pay off, unpaid bills, or forgone health or housing needs.

Housing, utility, health care, and child care costs have increased across New Hampshire. These rising costs have made building emergency savings increasingly difficult. With nearly one in four New Hampshire households in this fragile situation, small changes in physical or financial well-being, expenses facing families, public policy, or the economy overall could have big impacts on many Granite Staters.

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The New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute is sharing these articles with the partners in The Granite State News Collaborative. NHFPI is an independent nonprofit organization that explores, develops and promotes public policies that foster economic opportunity and prosperity for all New Hampshire residents. For more information visit nhfpi.org. These articles are being shared by partners in The Granite State News Collaborative. For more information visit collaborativenh.org.



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