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This week’s jobs report was messy, but it shows cracks in the economy as 2026 looms – The Boston Globe

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This week’s jobs report was messy, but it shows cracks in the economy as 2026 looms – The Boston Globe


“We anticipated that once the government reopened there would be a few months of noisy data, and we would not get a real sense of where the jobs market is until early 2026. That is exactly what we got,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at corporate advisory firm RSM, wrote in a blog post.

Despite potential statistical distortions from the shutdown, the report underscored that private employers remained stuck in low-fire, low-hire mode in October and November, while unemployment reached the highest rate in four years. Wage growth has stalled.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, with most officials saying they were more worried about the job market falling apart than inflation heating up. Tuesday’s payroll numbers show their concerns weren’t unfounded:

  • The private sector added an average of 60,500 jobs in the past two months, extending a mostly anemic run of hiring, while the federal workforce declined by 168,000 as DOGE-related deferred resignations took effect.
  • The jobless rate crept up to 4.6 percent in November from 4.4 percent in September. (The Labor Department didn’t tally unemployment in October due to the 43-day shutdown.)
  • The number of people working part time because of economic conditions increased by more than 1 million, or 24 percent, over the past year.

“The labor market is showing growing fragility as firms grapple with uneven demand, elevated costs, [profit] margin pressure and persistent uncertainty,” economists Gregory Daco and Lydia Boussour said in note.

Here are some job trends I’ll be watching as we move into the new year.

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Just a few sectors are in hiring mode.

The economy is vulnerable to a downturn when job growth is limited to a few sectors.

Health care and social assistance accounted for most of the new jobs in November, with a smaller gain in construction.

The economically sensitive manufacturing and transportation-warehousing industries lost jobs, as did information and finance, two largely white-collar sectors that are important employers in Massachusetts. (State-level data for November will be published later this month.)

Layoffs are low but will that last?

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Employers are moving cautiously as they assess the impact of tariffs on their businesses, the direction of consumer spending, and whether artificial intelligence might allow them to operate with fewer workers.

Because the slowdown in hiring has yet to turn into a wave of firing, unemployment is relatively low by historical standards even after recent increases.

But there are concerning signs.

  • The unemployment rate among Black workers climbed to 8.3 percent last month from 6.4 percent a year earlier even as white unemployment was little changed. Black workers are often hit first when hiring slows or layoffs begin.
  • Similarly, the jobless rate for workers without a high school diploma has risen to 6.8 percent from 6 percent over the past year, and unemployment among 20-24 year olds is at its highest level (excluding the COVID shock) since 2015, the tail end of the long “jobless recovery” that followed the Great Recession.

Slack is building in the labor market.

The supply of workers is growing — surprising some economists who expected a decline amid the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown and aggressive deportation campaign.

With hiring on the decline, many people are idle or not working as many hours as they would like.

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The U-6 unemployment rate — a measure of labor-market slack that counts not only the officially unemployed, but also discouraged workers who’ve stopped looking and people stuck in part-time jobs who want full-time work — jumped to 8.7 percent in November from 8 percent in September. That’s the highest rate since early 2017 (excluding the COVID era).

How does the Fed react?

Last week, Fed chair Jerome Powell said the central bank’s quarter-point cut, plus two others since September, should be enough to shore up hiring while allowing inflation to resume falling toward officials’ 2 percent target.

Most Fed watchers don’t think the latest jobs report alters that view — for now — and are forecasting just two more rate cuts in 2026.

“The report contains enough softness to justify prior rate cuts, but it offers little support for significantly deeper easing ahead,” Kevin O’Neil at Brandywine Global, told Bloomberg.

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Final thought

Massachusetts, which has been shedding jobs this year, seems to be leading the way for the rest of the country.

Call me cautiously pessimistic: Things will get worse before they get better.


Larry Edelman can be reached at larry.edelman@globe.com.





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Massachusetts

Man dead after apparent drowning in Randolph pond

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Man dead after apparent drowning in Randolph pond


A man has died following an apparent drowning at a pond in Randolph, Massachusetts, on Sunday.

The Randolph police and fire departments received a 911 call at around 4 p.m. for a swimmer in distress in the water on Pond Street, according to the Norfolk County District Attorney’s Office..

Firefighters located the man a short time later, officials added, and he was taken by ambulance to an area hospital where he was pronounced dead.

The Kingston Fire Department had said just before 4 p.m. that their dive team was activated for a missing swimmer in Randolph, but that the activation was canceled after the swimmer was located.

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Further information is not being released at this time, including the man’s name.

Massachusetts State Police detectives and the Randolph Police Department are investigating.



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Fire spreads to 3 multi-family buildings in Lawrence, Massachusetts

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Fire spreads to 3 multi-family buildings in Lawrence, Massachusetts


Firefighters in Lawrence, Massachusetts are working to contain a fire that damaged at least three buildings on Sunday afternoon.

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Lawrence Fire Chief Patrick Delaney said they received multiple 911 calls about the buildings on fire at the intersection of Haverhill and Margin Street at about 12:45 p.m.

When firefighters arrived, there were three occupied multi-family buildings with heavy fire.

“Crews did an excellent job once they arrived on scene to make sure we did a primary search of all three buildings, make sure everybody was out,” Chief Delaney said.

No injuries have been reported. It is unclear how many people have been displaced from the three buildings that were on fire.

Lawrence fire

Three buildings were damaged by fire on Haverhill and Margin streets in Lawrence, Massachusetts. 

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CBS Boston


Chief Delaney said the firefighters were impacted by the hot weather. 

“The crews are working extremely hard, they’re taking a lot of heat in all three fire buildings and we’re trying to get crews in here to make sure that they’re safe and give them some relief,” Chief Delaney said.

Investigators are working to determine the cause of the fire. Firefighters from other nearby communities responded for mutual aid.

“We’re at a fourth alarm which brings a lot of resources to our city, but they’re well needed in a fire like this,” Chief Delaney said.  

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Police are asking residents to avoid the area of Haverhill Street at Margin Street because of the fire.

Lawrence, Massachusetts is a city about 30 miles north of Boston. 



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Commentary: Massachusetts needs a journalist shield law

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Commentary: Massachusetts needs a journalist shield law


When a government whistleblower risks a career to expose corruption to a journalist, the first question is always the same: Will my name be kept out of it?

The same is true when a hospital employee reveals a cover-up, when a church insider exposes abuse, or when a corporate source provides evidence that a company has concealed the dangers of its products.

In 41 states and the District of Columbia, a journalist can answer that question with the weight of law behind the promise. In Massachusetts, a journalist cannot.

That is unacceptable for a commonwealth that calls itself the cradle of American liberty and a birthplace of the free press.

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And it is also dangerous, especially now, at a moment when journalists face escalating hostility, when federal officials openly threaten and demean the press, and when the legal protections that make independent journalism possible are under assault from multiple directions.

Two bills pending on Beacon Hill would remedy that. House Bill 4638 and Senate Bill 1253, both titled “An Act Relative to the Free Flow of Information,” would establish a statutory reporter’s privilege in Massachusetts, protecting journalists from being compelled to disclose confidential sources or unpublished information except in narrowly defined circumstances involving national security, imminent violence or a defendant’s constitutional right to a fair trial.

Last fall, both the House and Senate members of the Joint Committee on the Judiciary gave these bills a favorable report — marking the first time a shield law bill has ever cleared committee in Massachusetts. Since then, however, the bills have languished. Now, their fate is down to the wire.

The clock is ticking. The formal legislative session ends July 31. If both chambers do not bring these bills to a floor vote by then, the legislation dies, and the entire effort has to start over in the next session.

We urge House Speaker Ronald Mariano, Senate President Karen Spilka, and the leadership of both chambers to ensure that a shield law goes to a vote before time runs out.

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The need is more urgent than ever. Just last week, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to intervene in the case of Catherine Herridge, a veteran investigative reporter facing daily fines of $800 for refusing to reveal a confidential source. Herridge’s case arose in federal court, where no shield law applies.

But Massachusetts journalists face a similar vulnerability in state court, where judges apply a discretionary balancing test that has produced inconsistent and unjust outcomes. In the Ayash v. Dana-Farber Cancer Institute case, a reporter and his newspaper were held in contempt for refusing to identify a confidential source — even though the underlying claims were ultimately dismissed.

In Commonwealth v. Karen Read, the trial court reversed its own ruling on a reporter’s claim of privilege, underscoring the current standard’s unpredictability.

This legal uncertainty has real-world consequences.

Sources with information the public should know — about government misconduct, about institutional abuse, about threats to public health and safety — are reluctant to come forward.

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Reporters at small and local newspapers, the very outlets that cover city halls and school committees and police departments, face the prospect of costly court battles they cannot afford every time a subpoena lands on an editor’s desk.

A statutory shield law would replace that uncertainty with clearly defined protections, replacing individual judges’ unguided discretion with an unambiguous legal standard on which everyone could rely. The commonwealth’s outlier status grows more conspicuous each year.

In March 2025, Idaho became the latest state to enact a shield law, with its Republican-led legislature approving the law unanimously. There is no reason for Massachusetts not to follow suit.

This legislation carries no fiscal cost. It has no formal opposition. It has the support of every major news and press organization in the state, as well as of the ACLU of Massachusetts and Common Cause. What it needs now is a vote. The people of Massachusetts deserve the same protections for a free and vigorous press that citizens in the vast majority of states already enjoy. The Legislature has just weeks to act. It should not let this historic opportunity slip away.

Robert J. Ambrogi is the executive director of the Massachusetts Newspaper Publishers Association.

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