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“We anticipated that once the government reopened there would be a few months of noisy data, and we would not get a real sense of where the jobs market is until early 2026. That is exactly what we got,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at corporate advisory firm RSM, wrote in a blog post.
Despite potential statistical distortions from the shutdown, the report underscored that private employers remained stuck in low-fire, low-hire mode in October and November, while unemployment reached the highest rate in four years. Wage growth has stalled.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, with most officials saying they were more worried about the job market falling apart than inflation heating up. Tuesday’s payroll numbers show their concerns weren’t unfounded:
“The labor market is showing growing fragility as firms grapple with uneven demand, elevated costs, [profit] margin pressure and persistent uncertainty,” economists Gregory Daco and Lydia Boussour said in note.
Here are some job trends I’ll be watching as we move into the new year.
Just a few sectors are in hiring mode.
The economy is vulnerable to a downturn when job growth is limited to a few sectors.
Health care and social assistance accounted for most of the new jobs in November, with a smaller gain in construction.
The economically sensitive manufacturing and transportation-warehousing industries lost jobs, as did information and finance, two largely white-collar sectors that are important employers in Massachusetts. (State-level data for November will be published later this month.)
Layoffs are low but will that last?
Employers are moving cautiously as they assess the impact of tariffs on their businesses, the direction of consumer spending, and whether artificial intelligence might allow them to operate with fewer workers.
Because the slowdown in hiring has yet to turn into a wave of firing, unemployment is relatively low by historical standards even after recent increases.
But there are concerning signs.
Slack is building in the labor market.
The supply of workers is growing — surprising some economists who expected a decline amid the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown and aggressive deportation campaign.
With hiring on the decline, many people are idle or not working as many hours as they would like.
The U-6 unemployment rate — a measure of labor-market slack that counts not only the officially unemployed, but also discouraged workers who’ve stopped looking and people stuck in part-time jobs who want full-time work — jumped to 8.7 percent in November from 8 percent in September. That’s the highest rate since early 2017 (excluding the COVID era).
How does the Fed react?
Last week, Fed chair Jerome Powell said the central bank’s quarter-point cut, plus two others since September, should be enough to shore up hiring while allowing inflation to resume falling toward officials’ 2 percent target.
Most Fed watchers don’t think the latest jobs report alters that view — for now — and are forecasting just two more rate cuts in 2026.
“The report contains enough softness to justify prior rate cuts, but it offers little support for significantly deeper easing ahead,” Kevin O’Neil at Brandywine Global, told Bloomberg.
Final thought
Massachusetts, which has been shedding jobs this year, seems to be leading the way for the rest of the country.
Call me cautiously pessimistic: Things will get worse before they get better.
Larry Edelman can be reached at larry.edelman@globe.com.
A Massachusetts high school is under investigation after “several” teachers have been diagnosed with breast cancer or precancerous conditions.
The state Department of Public Health is set to visit Uxbridge High School on Thursday to “conduct a series of air quality tests,” to determine whether the multiple cases are potentially connected.
Superintendent David Ljungberg and Principal Michael Rubin alerted families and district staff on Monday of the “sombering news,” after Uxbridge High School’s graduation over the weekend.
“We are writing to inform you about a concern we are investigating at Uxbridge High School,” Ljungberg and Rubin stated in the letter. “Several female teachers have been diagnosed with breast cancer or precancerous conditions over the past few years.”
“It is, of course, possible that these multiple cases are not connected to one another,” the leaders added, “but out of abundance of caution, we are looking into any environmental factors at the school that may be a factor in their diagnoses.”
The 123,000-square-foot school, with an enrollment of roughly 600, was constructed in 2012 at a cost of $45 million, including a $22-million state reimbursement.
Uxbridge school leaders say they notified the state Department of Health and local health board as soon as they became aware of the cases, seeking “counsel about how best to proceed.”
“Massachusetts DPH officials have indicated that there is no evidence of immediate danger in the building and no reason to limit access to or use of the facility at this time,” they wrote in their letter. “In fact, the public health officials have commended our decision to approach them with these concerns, our readiness to partner with them in support of the evaluation process.”
Health officials are assessing the school’s interior and exterior to “ensure there are no issues with the infrastructure that would present risks (including electrical, plumbing, mechanical, HVAC, and other systems)” and the indoor and outdoor air quality on campus.
The superintendent and principal said that state officials have ruled out water supply as a “risk factor” after “thorough testing.”
“The team has reached out to the women who have been diagnosed, requesting data to evaluate whether there may be a connection among their cases,” Ljungberg and Rubin wrote. “We are grateful for their cooperation.”
They added that the state has said discovering an environmental “smoking gun” is “rare” in workplace investigations.
“However, even if a direct causal link is not established,” the leaders wrote, “the administration is utilizing this process to rigorously test the building and guarantee that it meets all safety standards moving forward.”
Local News
Massachusetts lawmakers are considering a measure that would allow cities and towns to temporarily extend bar and restaurant hours during the summer, as the state prepares to host FIFA World Cup matches and celebrations marking the nation’s 250th anniversary.
The legislation (H.5465) filed by state Rep. Carole Fiola, would allow licensed establishments to sell alcohol one hour later than their normal closing time, up to 3 a.m., between June 1 and Aug. 31, 2026. The bill would also allow communities to establish designated public consumption districts where alcohol could be consumed in approved public spaces.
In a press release announcing the bill, Fiola said the summer’s threefold events lineup — the World Cup, Tall Ships, and July 4th — is an economically significant moment that the state should take advantage of.
“We should capitalize on these events that will generate economic benefits for small businesses and the state as a whole. It’s a local opt-in idea worth exploring that’s being done in other states,” Fiola said.
The proposal has received support from Boston Mayor Michelle Wu and most recently Gov. Maura Healey, who submitted written testimony Monday to the Joint Committee on Economic Development and Emerging Technologies urging lawmakers to advance the measure.
“Massachusetts is planning for a once-in-a-generation summer,” Healey wrote, according to the Boston Globe. “In 2026, we will celebrate the 250th anniversary of our nation’s founding, welcome tall ships from around the world to Boston Harbor for Sail Boston, and host seven FIFA World Cup matches in Foxborough, along with watch parties across the Commonwealth.”
The governor argued that the added flexibility could help local economies benefit from an influx of visitors.
“That flexibility can help communities capture more visitor spending, support jobs, keep downtowns active, and strengthen Massachusetts’ image as a dynamic destination ready to host the world and a place our residents, including our young professionals, are proud to call home,” Healey wrote.
She also urged lawmakers to move the legislation forward, saying it will “help Massachusetts meet the full economic and cultural opportunities for the summer ahead.”
In Rhode Island, a similar bill to allow bars and restaurants to remain open until 4 a.m. during the World Cup was signed into law on Friday.
Fiola’s bill remains before the Joint Committee on Economic Development and Emerging Technologies. Any final version would require approval from both the House and Senate before reaching Healey’s desk.
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The meteor responsible for a loud boom heard in Rhode Island and Massachusetts Saturday afternoon was approximately 5 feet in diameter and weighed more than 12,000 pounds, according to NASA.
The object entered Earth’s atmosphere at roughly 42,000 mph, a NASA spokesperson said. It then traveled through the atmosphere from northwest to southeast for 26 miles before breaking up and producing a meteorite fall into Cape Cod Bay.
The energy released when the object broke up at an altitude of 31 miles is estimated to be equivalent to about 230 tons of TNT, according to NASA.
Professor Ralph Milliken of the Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences at Brown University spoke with NBC 10’s Mike Cerullo. (WJAR)
While it’s not very common to experience a 5-foot-wide meteorite, there is a significant amount of debris from space that reaches Earth.
“The estimates are that we probably have about 5,000 tons of cosmic dust and material and meteorites landing on Earth. The vast majority of that is super tiny stuff, we’re talking things that are smaller than a grain of sand, or the thickness of a human hair,” said Professor Ralph Milliken of the Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences at Brown University. “For something of this size a few feet across, it’s not that common, but a few a year. Most of these would occur over uninhabited areas, over the ocean, and we wouldn’t be able to see them, but they are detected.”
Because of its size, a meteorite with a 5-foot diameter is difficult to track before it enter Earth’s atmosphere.
“It’s virtually impossible to kind of know in advance of this size object coming,” Milliken said.
The area where a meteorite crashed in Cape Cod Bay. (WJAR)
Scientists are, however, able to track much larger space objects. NASA has been developing technology to try to deflect larger objects if needed.
Events like what occurred in New England over the weekend are recorded. Although other fireballs enter Earth’s atmosphere throughout the year, many of them materialize over water and uninhabited areas.
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