The lower revenue numbers have opened up a potential $177 million budget gap. The Healey administration said the state currently is short about $39 million, but that number could grow once officials determine exactly how much it raised from the so-called millionaires tax, which won’t be clear until this fall.
Healey’s budget office estimates that the state pulled in about $240 million from the new surtax on annual income over $1 million, which voters passed last November. Roughly $103 million of that came from capital gains, which doesn’t affect the budget bottom line, but the remainder — an estimated $138 million — is currently in the general fund.
That falls in line with previous estimates from state officials, who said in January they expected the surtax to raise as much as $265 million in the final six months of the fiscal year. They said it could then be as high as $1.77 billion in the full fiscal year that started in July.
Constitutionally, any money raised from the new surtax is mandated to go to education and transportation, not to simply balance the budget. Should the Legislature vote to move that money into a new account created in the current budget to house the surtax revenue, it would then widen the budget gap.
Still, at $177 million, the gap represents a fraction of a percent of the state’s overall $56 billion budget.
Matthew J. Gorzkowicz, budget secretary for Governor Maura Healey, said in a statement that state officials are on track to avoid tapping savings to balance the budget. State budget officials also indicated they don’t believe any major cuts will be necessary.
It’s possible the state could turn to an estimated $1.2 billion escrow account, which includes money from last year’s record-breaking multibillion-dollar surplus, or other avenues.
The Healey administration is expected to file a supplemental spending bill later this summer to close the books on the fiscal year.
While the collections are a reversal from past years, state officials have for months prepared to fall short of their end-year revenue expectations after tax collections cratered in April, typically the strongest month for tax receipts. But revenue rebounded and beat expectations in both May and June. That, Gorzkowicz said in a statement, “helped to shrink the gap.”
Questions of where the state coffers stood at the end of the last fiscal year have hung over Beacon Hill for weeks. Healey on Wednesday signed a $56 billion annual state budget that hikes spending from last year by 7 percent. A week earlier, the Department of Revenue released tax collections for July — the first month of the new fiscal year — but not those for June, the closing month for the 2023 fiscal year.
Healey vetoed little from the annual budget the Legislature passed, but she did slash more than $200 million in spending, as well as language that would have allowed the state to pull the same amount from the escrow account, which includes past surplus money and is a flexible pot of cash officials can spend in a variety of ways. Healey said she instead wanted to use those one-time funds for “transformational investments.”
Doug Howgate, president of the business-backed Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, said overall the state is facing a “brighter picture than we were looking at in April,” but the numbers are a reminder that the heady fiscal times of the past two years are over.
“We’re not in this world of 10 percent revenue growth, or 11 percent revenue growth,” he said. “We can’t be making budgets thinking we’re in that ‘22 world.”
Other states ended the fiscal year in better positions than Massachusetts, according to the National Association of State Budget Officers. Most that have reported their year-end revenue figures beat their original forecasts, the nonpartisan nonprofit found, with some enjoying hefty surpluses.
Georgia, for example, finished the year with a roughly $4.8 billion surplus, while Virginia’s governor said it ended the year with $5.1 billion in excess resources. Kentucky beat its estimates by $1.4 billion, Pennsylvania by $1.3 billion, and Connecticut had hundreds of millions of dollars in surplus dollars even after previously passing the largest tax cut in its history, according to NASBO.
Others have far smaller surpluses, which officials have weighed using to help pay down unfunded pension liabilities or debt, or investing in other things, like education, according to NASBO.
It’s a position Massachusetts, too, enjoyed in recent years. Last year’s $5 billion surplus helped cover a $3 billion refund that flowed back to taxpayers after a windfall of tax collections triggered a 1986 tax-cap law for just the second time in nearly four decades. A year earlier, the state had $1.5 billion more than it expected to collect.
The state’s sudden drop in revenue in April appeared to be driven by two main factors, budget officials said at the time. The state collected less in capital gains revenue than projected, and more members of pass-through entities collected their share of $1.4 billion in available credits than anticipated.
The state in 2021 adopted a change in law enabling the pass-through entities — such as partnerships or certain limited liability companies — to avoid the federal cap on state and local deductions by allowing them to pay income tax on members’ behalf. But for every dollar the company paid in so-called PTE excise taxes, the pass-through business owners are then entitled to 90 cents of credits against their personal income tax.
State officials are also still weighing major fiscal decisions.
Legislative leaders remain locked in negotiations over a sweeping overhaul of the state’s tax code, and while the budget sets aside about $580 million to cover tax relief measures this fiscal year, it’s unclear what size or scope a final tax package could take.
The House and Senate appear in alignment on several provisions, including increasing tax credits for seniors who rent or own in Massachusetts, raising a tax deduction for renters, and increasing the state’s earned income tax credit — designed to help low-income families — from 30 percent to 40 percent of the federal credit.
But while both chambers are seeking to combine two existing tax credits — for child care and dependent care — into one, they disagree on how high to ultimately lift the cap.
The House, and Healey, also proposed cutting the tax rate on short-term capital gains, or profits on investments held up to a year, from 12 percent to 5 percent, but the Senate did not.
Matt Stout can be reached at matt.stout@globe.com. Follow him @mattpstout.