Electrical energy and power costs are main points in Maine’s gubernatorial race forward of what’s anticipated to be a troublesome winter for a lot of households. However the political rhetoric usually obscures the actual causes electrical energy charges are rising throughout New England – and seem poised to go even greater in Maine.

Former Republican Gov. Paul LePage and Democratic Gov. Janet Mills could agree on one key level relating to electrical energy costs – particularly, that Maine residents are paying an excessive amount of. However the two longtime political rivals have very totally different explanations for why Maine’s electrical energy charges are rising as LePage blames Maine’s renewable power insurance policies whereas Mills (together with many power coverage observers and consultants) say skyrocketing pure gasoline costs are the first issue.

That distinction was crystal-clear throughout a prolonged back-and-forth between the previous and present governor.

“In 2010 after I took over, the state of Maine was tenth highest power prices in america,” LePage stated throughout the televised WGME/Bangor Day by day Information debate. “We acquired it as much as 11. Proper now (we’re) No. 4 highest. And it isn’t fossil gas. It’s web metering and it’s photo voltaic power. That’s what’s inflicting it.”

“Maine photo voltaic insurance policies aren’t the rationale why power costs have elevated,” Mills responded. “Our power costs have elevated due to our dependence on fossil fuels, pure and easy, like pure gasoline,” Mills stated. “We’re so depending on pure gasoline as a result of Mr. LePage, for my part, did not diversify our power sources throughout his eight years. So if you wish to take a look at the rationale why costs are so excessive, take a look at my opponent.”

Maine and its New England neighbors persistently have among the many highest electrical energy charges within the nation. And that unlucky distinction is not prone to change within the close to future due to the important thing value driver throughout the New England regional energy grid – pure gasoline.

“We generate about half of our electrical energy in New England from pure gasoline,” stated Invoice Harwood, who heads Maine’s Workplace of the Public Advocate that’s tasked with representing the pursuits of ratepayers on all issues associated to utilities. “And there are constraints and limits on the quantity of pure gasoline we are able to get into New England. And while you constrain the availability and demand stays the identical, the costs go up. And we’re seeing substantial will increase within the value of pure gasoline, that are affecting costs on the availability facet.”

The “spot value” for pure gasoline has almost tripled within the final two years as world demand has exceeded manufacturing. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine then threw already unstable power markets into all-out turmoil as European nations that relied on Russia for pure gasoline desperately sought out different sources, together with U.S. gasoline producers. Additional complicating components domestically, New England is on the tail finish of pipelines that may solely carry a lot pure gasoline. In consequence, New England additionally depends on liquified pure gasoline, or LNG, to complement its provides when demand peaks on bitterly chilly winter days.

“And that labored fairly effectively for the final a number of years till struggle broke out in Ukraine,” Harwood stated. “And now LNG is purchased and desired for Europe. So we’re competing with Europe for a restricted provide of LNG. And because of this, costs go up.”

In Maine, most clients of Central Maine Energy and Versant noticed the availability portion of their charges improve 83% and 88%, respectively, earlier this yr. The 2 utilities solely ship electrical energy — they do not produce it. As an alternative, the availability charges that account for about half of a family electrical invoice are set by the Maine Public Utilities Fee primarily based on bids from the businesses that truly generate the ability.

The PUC will set new so-called “commonplace supply” charges this month. Fee chairman Phil Bartlett stated these bids are nonetheless coming in. However primarily based on present pure gasoline costs – and the current experiences of his counterparts in different states – Bartlett stated he expects costs to be greater once more. Each CMP and Versant are additionally individually in search of to extend their distribution charges.

“Timing issues quite a bit – these costs are very unstable, they’re primarily based on expectations of future costs, that are altering. you recognize, nearly each day,” Bartlett stated. “So it is arduous to foretell with any certainty what it’ll be besides to say that we do anticipate costs to be greater than they had been final yr.”

Below Gov. Mills, Maine has set bold renewable power targets. And final yr, greater than 70% of the electrical energy generated inside Maine got here from renewable sources, with hydropower and wind generators producing essentially the most megawatts. However as a result of Maine is a part of ISO New England, the state’s electrical energy technology, utilization and pricing are all wrapped up within the regional grid.

Throughout a current marketing campaign occasion at Colby School, Mills accused LePage of undermining improvement of renewable power when he was governor and pointed to his previous assist for oil exploration off the New England shoreline. In the meantime, Mills says her personal insurance policies have result in a increase in improvement of rooftop photo voltaic in addition to bigger, grid-level photo voltaic initiatives.

“Persons are smartening up and saying we do not wish to depend upon gasoline for technology of electrical energy,” Mills informed just a few dozen college students and different attendees. “We wish to be a bit extra self-sustaining and a bit extra sort to our local weather and never burn fossil fuels which emit carbon dioxide and different gases into the environment.”

LePage counters that his focus is on the associated fee to Maine ratepayers.

“Of us, I’m agnostic to the expertise that’s used to create electrical energy,” LePage stated throughout a Information Middle Maine debate. “What I’m not agnostic to is pricing.”

LePage is appropriate, nonetheless, that one renewable power coverage specifically might drive up electrical charges in Maine.

The state’s follow of offering electrical energy invoice credit to photo voltaic initiatives might considerably improve prices for all ratepayers within the subsequent yr or two as photo voltaic farms proliferate throughout Maine. Each the PUC’s Bartlett and Harwood, the state’s public advocate, are a part of a bunch that can advocate adjustments to the “web power billing” program later this yr.

However Dan Sosland, who’s president of the nonprofit Acadia Middle that works on power and local weather insurance policies, stated wind and photo voltaic are sometimes now cheaper than pure gasoline. So Sosland stated the information merely do not assist LePage’s arguments that renewable power is behind the current surge in electrical energy costs.

“We’d like extra renewables,” Sosland stated. “And if we do extra renewables, many research present together with ones right here in New England present that costs will go down over time, that there will likely be elevated public well being advantages, there will likely be ratepayer advantages. And all of it is smart as a result of we import fossil fuels and we have now wind and photo voltaic right here. And we have now effectivity right here.”

In truth, Sosland added, effectivity is the most affordable option to cut back power and electrical energy payments. And he stated there may be nonetheless “monumental potential” in Maine for lowering electrical payments by way of effectivity.