Boston, MA
2024 NBA Finals Gambling Primer: Dallas Mavericks Vs. Boston Celtics
Reluctantly, I’m here to discuss the 2024 NBA Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics. I say “reluctantly” because I’ve gotten my teeth kicked in this season betting on the NBA. After going on a 15-game winning streak during the NBA Play-In Tournament and the first round of the playoffs, I’ve cooled off significantly.
My disgruntlement aside, it also feels like this Mavericks-Celtics is lacking juice. I mean, the biggest NBA story on the morning of Game 1 is the Los Angeles Lakers possibly giving Connecticut Huskies head coach Dan Hurley a blank check to be their next head coach. This is just another example of ESPN butchering its NBA coverage.
But, that’s neither here nor there. As a hoops betting junkie, I’ll be boozing and ordering Uber Eats for every 2024 NBA Finals game. Plus, I am interested in whether this is the beginning of a Boston dynasty or the Luka Dončić era. The Celtics have their dynamic duo, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, not even in their primes with the best supporting cast in the NBA. Luka will be the favorite to win the NBA MVP next season and, his co-pilot, Kyrie Irving, finally seems normal again.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics NBA Finals 2024
The odds are as of 1:30 p.m. ET Thursday, June 6th.
Series Odds (DraftKings)
- Boston (-210)
- Dallas (+175)
Series Spread (DraftKings)
- Celtics -1.5 (+100)
- Mavericks +2.5 (-120)
Money is pouring in on the Mavs to win the 2024 NBA Finals and it feels like “sucker money”. I get Dallas just beat three straight lower seeds in the Western Conference Playoffs and Boston has struggled to cover in its wins this postseason. However, the Celtics have been the favorite to win the title since trading for PG Jrue Holiday this offseason. They won 64 regular-season games and have lost two games in the playoffs.
With this in mind, I’ll invoke the handicapping angle of “Public ‘dogs get slaughtered”. Usually, when the public backs an underdog, it loses. Since the public loves betting favorites, it’s rare for sportsbooks to root for the better team on paper. Yet, that’s what we have in the 2024 NBA Finals. We witnessed Luka and Kyrie torch the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals and Boston “play with its food” in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Celtics beat the Mavs in both regular-season meetings by an average score of 128.5-110.0. One win was pre-trade deadline, the other was afterward, and Dončić and Irving played in both. I mention the trade deadline because Dallas added two starting bigs to their team, C Daniel Gafford and PF P.J. Washington, Feb. 9th.
LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast’s 2024 NBA Finals Preview, Celtics-Mavericks Ft. David Troy
Nonetheless, following the trade deadline, Boston led the NBA in non-garbage time net rating (+14.8) and spread differential (+5.4), according to CleaningTheGlass.com. Whereas the Mavericks had a +15.8 adjusted net rating and a +2.0 spread differential.
Also, in their first meeting this season, Boston was on the second of a back-to-back and Dallas had four days’ rest. Regardless, the Celtics went on the road and beat the Mavs by nine. Boston All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown crushed the Mavericks. Tatum averaged 35.5 points on 52.5% shooting and Brown put up 29.5 PPG on 57.1% shooting.
The Celtics host the Dallas Mavericks for Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals at TD Garden in Boston Thursday, June 6th. (Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images)
The biggest factor in my pro-Celtics handicap is the gap from Luka and Kyrie to Tatum and Brown is big enough to make up the edge Boston’s supporting cast has over Dallas’s. Let’s agree both tandems average 60+ PPG. Holiday and Boston SG Derrick White will outplay Washington, Gafford, and Mavericks SF Derrick Jones Jr. That’s not even factoring in the return of Celtics big Kristaps Porziņģis.
Finally, both teams chuck threes but the Celtics are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. This postseason, Boston is +3.0% in 3-point shooting and Dallas is +1.6%. Between their starting 5 and backup big Al Horford, the Celtics have six good 3-point shooters. While any Dallas possession that ends with a Washington, Gafford, or Jones contested shot is a good one for Boston’s defense.
Best Bet: Boston Celtics -1.5 NBA Finals spread (+100)
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2024 NBA Finals MVP Odds (FanDuel)
- Jayson Tatum (-125)
- Luka Dončić (+215)
- Jaylen Brown (+700)
- Kyrie Irving (+1800)
- Kristaps Porziņģis (+3300)
- Derrick White (+3500)
- Jrue Holiday (+10000)
- Al Horford (+37000)
- Derrick Jones Jr. (+50000)
- P.J. Washington (+50000)
- Daniel Gafford (+50000)
- Mavericks C Dereck Lively (+50000)
This is essentially a “value bet”. Considering Tatum is -125 to win the 2024 NBA Finals MVP, Brown’s +700 odds are disrespectful. Tatum isn’t that much better than Brown. He is only averaging one more PPG in these playoffs and Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP. Since the Mavs don’t have two guys to guard Tatum and Brown, Dallas will have to pick its poison, so to speak.
Boston Celtics SF Jaylen Brown gets to the hoop on the Dallas Mavericks at TD Garden. (David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, Brown is shooting 54.1% from the field this postseason and Tatum is shooting just 44.2%. Brown’s ability to bully defenders gets him good looks inside the paint, and he is shooting 61.5% on twos. Lastly, Tatum is settling for too many threes and 29.0% from behind the arc in the playoffs. Brown will win the Bill Russell Award (NBA Finals MVP) if these shooting splits continue.
Bet: Boston Celtics wing Jaylen Brown (+700)
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.
FIFA World Cup host cities lay out security plans ahead of matches
Host cities ramp up security and anti-human trafficking efforts ahead of FIFA World Cup matches across the U.S.
The FIFA World Cup is coming to Massachusetts, and when it comes to having a place for people to hang out together, there will be a free fan zone where everyone can celebrate the big event.
Seven World Cup matches will take place at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA this summer, and the first one is right around the corner, to be played on June 13, with Scotland taking on Haiti.
Fan Zones are a public space to watch the game for people who don’t have tickets to the actual game. Held in public places, they broadcast the mach on giant screens to offer an immersive experience to watch the game, according to FIFA>
“At the heart of FIFA Fan Festival Boston, (a) Cultural Showcase will ignite the stage with a vibrant celebration of the spirit, creativity, and cultural heartbeat of Boston and communities across the Commonwealth of Massachusetts,” FIFA said.
Where will the fan zone be located when the World Cup games start in just 11 days?
Where is the World Cup fan zone going to be in Massachusetts?
The official FIFA Fan Festival for the 2026 World Cup in Boston will be located at Boston City Hall Plaza at 1 City Hall Sq. Boston, MA.
“The festival will run daily from June 12 through June 27, offering live match broadcasts, cultural showcases, food vendors, and entertainment,” according to FIFA.
The fan zone will open between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. and will stay open until after dark, between 8:30 p.m. and 12:30 a.m. according to reports.
Activities at the fan zone
Here are some of the offerings at the fan zone in Boston, according to the FIFA website:
- Live broadcasts: Giant outdoor screens that broadcast tournament matches in high-definition.
- Entertainment & music: Live concerts, DJ sets, and performances celebrating global culture.
- Interactive activations: Skills challenges, mini-pitches, inflatable games, and sponsor booths.
- Food & merch: International food stalls, local beverage offerings, and official tournament merchandise.
How to go to the fan zone
While the game is free, you do need to register in advance.
“You can select which days and matches you plan to attend through the FIFA World Cup Boston 2026 website or the Meet Boston events page. Up to six people can register on a single application,” the World Cup Boston website says.
So you’re saying there’s a chance? Despite an abysmal start to the 2026 season, the Boston Red Sox remain in the mix for a playoff spot. At least according to FanGraphs, who gives the club a 27.1% chance of reaching the postseason.
Boston’s likely path to October means winning the wild card. FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 26.1% chance of winning an American League wild card. The team currently sits threes games back of the third and final wild card, despite a record of 25-33.
Don’t look for a division title this year in Beantown. FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 1% chance of winning the AL East. Which makes sense, since the team currently sits in last place, 11.5 games behind the first-place Tampa Bay Rays.
But SI’s Tom Verducci and Will Laws thinks Boston has a much tougher chance of making the playoffs. In their deep dive of the postseason, the pair came up with what they call the “Line of Doom.” According to their research, a team that starts “no better than 23–31 and your season is almost over only one-third of the way through the schedule.” Here’s why.
“In the wild card era (since 1995), only one team made the postseason starting with less than 22 wins in the first 54 games, the 2005 Astros (20–34). Of the 231 teams to start 23–31 or worse, only seven made the playoffs—once every 33 times,” Verducci and Laws note.
“Since the postseason field expanded in 2022, 31 teams began 23–31 or worse. Only one, the 2024 Mets (22–32), made the playoffs. That leaves such slow starters with a 1 in 31 chance—virtually the same as the larger sample size,” the pair add.
“The fact is one-third of the season does a good job separating pretenders from contenders. And as the calendar flips to June, understand that the playoff spots won’t change very much. In the four seasons with 12 playoff spots up for grabs, teams in playoff position when May ended kept a playoff spot 73% of the time—35 of 48 teams,” Verducci and Laws conclude.
So what does this have to do with the Red Sox, you ask? It’s Boston’s record after 54 games: 23-31. The “Line of Doom.”
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