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What will Trump do next with Iran?
A banner of President Donald Trump hangs over Iranian Americans and their supporters as they march from the U.S. Capitol to the World War II Memorial during a rally Saturday, May 16, 2026, in Washington.
Rod Lamkey/AP
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Rod Lamkey/AP
President Donald Trump has staked much of his political identity on his prowess as a dealmaker who is capable of bending adversaries to his will.
But Iran, until now, has proved resistant to that approach. Since the United States and Israel launched military strikes on Iran in late February,

a 38-day military campaign has given way to a fragile ceasefire, a mutual blockade centered on the Strait of Hormuz, and a cycle of stalled negotiations punctuated by Trump’s repeated threats to resume large-scale attacks.For more than six weeks now, the two countries have been locked in a standoff that has rattled global energy markets, regional stability, and Trump’s domestic political standing.
It has left governments, militaries, corporations and communities around the world asking: ‘what will Trump do next?’
On Monday, Trump announced he had called off a planned military strike at the request of Gulf Arab allies. He then said that “serious negotiations are now taking place,” adding that multiple regional partners — the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia — had told him they believed “a deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America.”
But even as he announced the pause, Trump told his military commanders to remain on standby for “a full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached.” That marked the latest spin in what has become a recurring cycle for Trump during this conflict: a deadline, a threat, a pullback, another threat.
Three of Trump’s core stated war aims — Iran abandoning its nuclear program, halting ballistic missile development, and ending support for Iran’s proxy forces in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen — remain unmet.
Iran’s response to this latest pause from the White House was hardly conciliatory.
“Our armed forces’ fingers are on the trigger, while diplomacy is also continuing,” Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said on state television.
Iran’s leverage over the Strait
Central to the impasse is the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas moved before the conflict began. Iran’s effective closure of the waterway, even as the U.S. continues to enforce its own blockade on Iranian ports, has sent energy prices higher worldwide and created a direct problem for American consumers.

An analysis of average national gas prices by AAA shows they have increased more than 50% since the start of the conflict. An AP-NORC poll conducted this past week showed that only a third of Americans currently approve of Trump’s handling of the economy.
Trump’s decision to utilize maximum economic and military pressure worked against Venezuela and placed severe strain on Cuba. But Iran presents a different challenge because of its ability to threaten one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
Another challenge is that both sides believe that playing the waiting game will ultimately work in their favor. Vali Nasr, a scholar of Iranian politics at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, told NPR’s Morning Edition that the current leadership in Tehran has drawn a sharp distinction between Trump’s military threats, which Iranian officials consider sincere, and his invitations to conduct diplomacy, which they do not.
“Iran does not take him seriously when he says he wants to negotiate,” Nasr said, adding that Iranian officials have read U.S. diplomatic signals as a strategy designed to buy time and sow internal confusion rather than reach a genuine agreement. On several occasions, the U.S. and Israel have launched attacks against Iran amid negotiations.
No clear endgame
On the question of whether the conflict could settle into a prolonged frozen standoff, Nasr said he was skeptical that the current impasse will hold.
“The Strait of Hormuz cannot remain closed indefinitely, and the U.S. cannot maintain this blockade indefinitely,” he said, citing the toll on the broader global economy as well as the limits of America’s naval capabilities. “I don’t think we’re talking months — maybe a month.”
Despite its battlefield losses, Iran has managed to keep its governing operations mostly intact and its grip on the Strait largely in place. But questions remain over Iran’s long-term nuclear ambitions that the country’s leaders have long insisted are civilian in nature. Trump has at times threatened to destroy them. But the government in Tehran is insistent on its right to develop peaceful nuclear energy.

The White House, for its part, maintains that its current posture has been successful.
“President Trump holds all the cards and wisely keeps all options on the table,” White House spokesperson Olivia Wales repeatedly insisted to reporters this week.
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With a Round of 32 spot already clinched, the U.S. takes on Turkey in the World Cup
Folarin Balogun (r) of the U.S. celebrates scoring his team’s second goal with Weston McKennie during their World Cup match against Paraguay on June 12 in Inglewood, Calif. The U.S. defeated Paraguay and, later, Australia. The U.S. wraps up group play against Turkey on Thursday evening. Win, lose or draw, the U.S. has already won its group and will advance to the knockout round.
Richard Heathcote/Getty Images
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Richard Heathcote/Getty Images
INGLEWOOD, Calif. — For the U.S. men’s national soccer team, a loss in Thursday night’s FIFA World Cup game against Turkey wouldn’t change anything.
A win, though, would be history.

The squad’s earlier wins over Paraguay and Australia, plus two losses by Turkey to the same teams, mean the Americans have already won their group and clinched a favorable path in the knockout round, no matter the outcome of Thursday’s game.
But the American men have never won more than two games in a single World Cup. A third win would be new territory for this team, which has not been shy about its aspirations in this tournament and its confidence about living up to them.
“The group stage is not done yet. We want to end it the right way. We want to end it the way we came into it and continue to build off of the momentum that we’ve been creating,” said defender Mark McKenzie, speaking to reporters Wednesday.

Because the outcome of the game does not affect knockout-round placement, the U.S. can rest key starters who will enter the match with a yellow card. For those players — defenders Antonee Robinson and Chris Richards, midfielder Tyler Adams and forward Folarin Balogun — picking up a second yellow card against Turkey would result in a suspension in the Round of 32. (Any single yellow cards will be cleared after the group stage concludes.)
The team could also choose to ease in forward Christian Pulisic, who is expected to be available for the game after sitting out the U.S.-Australia game with a minor calf injury.
Turkey had come into the World Cup with high expectations. With talented young stars like the 21-year-old attackers Arda Güler of Real Madrid and Kenan Yildiz of Juventus, the team was thought by many — from analysts to the players themselves — to be a dark horse capable of a deep run.
Instead, they were eliminated last week when their loss to Paraguay followed the U.S. win over Australia, prompting apologies from Turkey’s despondent players to their fans after the game.
On Wednesday, Yildiz echoed that apology and promised to “give our best” in Thursday’s game against the U.S. “We had high expectations. I know because all of our country was supporting us and thought we will come very far,” Yildiz said. “Hopefully for the next game we can make a good result and go out with pride.”
The U.S. and Turkey last faced each other in an international friendly in June 2025, which Turkey won 2-1. The U.S. roster for that game was missing several key players, including Pulisic, Robinson, Balogun and midfielder Weston McKennie.
“We had a really young team, but we went out there and put in a good performance. I don’t think the result necessarily reflected how we played,” Richards said. “Whoever’s on the field, I know we’re going to go out there and give 110 percent.”
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Federal judge bars Trump from implementing proof of citizenship requirement to vote
A federal judge on Wednesday permanently barred President Donald Trump’s administration from implementing most of his first executive order on elections, part of which sought to require people to show documentary proof of citizenship when they register to vote.
The ruling by U.S. District Court Judge Denise Casper in Boston effectively converts a preliminary injunction she issued a year ago, in which she temporarily blocked many of Trump’s efforts to overhaul elections, into a permanent ban.
Casper rejected the Republican administration’s argument that the lawsuit to block the changes brought by Democratic state attorneys general was premature because the rules had yet to be put in place. Instead, she agreed that the Constitution gives states and Congress the authority to regulate elections, and that Trump’s requirements violated the separation of powers.
The Constitution “does not grant the President any specific powers over elections,” wrote Casper.
Among other proposed changes, Trump’s order would have required people to provide documentary proof of citizenship when registering to vote, prevented mail ballots from being counted if they arrive after Election Day, even if they were postmarked by then, and punished states that failed to comply by withholding certain federal money.
In a statement, New York Attorney General Letitia James said she was grateful the court had blocked Trump’s “unconstitutional attempt to seize control of our elections” and would continue to defend voting rights in this year’s midterm elections.
“Generations of Americans fought tirelessly for the right to vote, and we honor their legacy by protecting that right against anyone who tries to undermine it,” said James, a Democrat.
A voter casts a ballot during New York’s primary election on Tuesday, June 23, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Ryan Murphy)
California Attorney General Rob Bonta, whose state was the lead plaintiff in the case, said the ruling reaffirmed the constitutional principle that it s up to the states and Congress to set election rules.
“While we are proud of this result, we are clear-eyed that President Trump’s attacks on voting rights and our elections show no signs of slowing down,” Bonta, a Democrat, said in a statement. “So let me be clear: we will keep fighting back every step of the way.”
Requests for comment sent to the White House and he U.S. Department of Justice were not immediately returned.
The ruling was the latest in a series against the elections executive order Trump signed just months after taking office for his second term. The Republican president has since signed another executive order on elections that seeks to create a national voter list and limit mail balloting. That directive also faces multiple legal challenges.
Last fall, a federal judge in Washington, D.C., overseeing a separate challenge to the first election executive order by civil rights and Democratic Party-aligned groups blocked the government from taking steps to include the proof-of-citizenship requirement on the federal voter registration form. That judge later barred Trump’s defense secretary from requiring documentary proof of citizenship when military personnel register to vote or request ballots.
In an apparent nod to the difficulty of implementing a proof-of-citizen requirement by executive order, Trump is pushing legislation in the Republican-controlled Congress to create such a mandate. The SAVE America Act has passed the House but has stalled in the Senate, leading Trump to advocate for eliminating the filibuster that is blocking the legislation.
On Wednesday, he abruptly canceled the expected signing of a bipartisan housing bill, saying he would not sign legislation until Congress passes his proof of citizenship requirement for voting.
The president and many of his Republican allies have been promoting the narrative that voting by noncitizens is a major problem, when in fact it’s quite rare. The federal voter registration form already requires people to attest that they are U.S. citizens. Violating that is punishable as a felony that can lead to prison or deportation.
In another major voting case, the U.S. Supreme Court is due to issue an opinion soon on whether mail ballots must arrive by Election Day. That could immediately change the rules in 14 states that allow grace periods ranging from days to weeks if the ballots are postmarked by Election Day.
Casper, who was nominated by Democratic President Barack Obama, is the chief judge for the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts.
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Video: Mamdani Allies Sweep New York Primaries
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Mamdani Allies Sweep New York Primaries
Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s progressive coalition had a big night on Tuesday. Brad Lander, Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez won their Democratic House primaries.
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“I see a New York that we can all afford. I see a New York that truly invests in its babies, not bombs.” Reporter: “What’s the first thing you’re looking forward to doing in Congress?” “Well, tomorrow — thank you — I mean, tomorrow morning, you know, I’m going to be back at 26 Federal Plaza doing court watching, and we want to carry that into Congress as well.”
By Julie Yoon
June 24, 2026
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