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Week Ahead: a run of elections while the WTO gathers in Abu Dhabi

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Week Ahead: a run of elections while the WTO gathers in Abu Dhabi

This article is an on-site version of our The Week Ahead newsletter. Sign up here to get the newsletter sent straight to your inbox every Sunday

Hello and welcome to the working week.

2024 is the year of elections and the next seven days offer us a rich crop of voting, with varying degrees of legitimacy.

On Tuesday, Israelis go to the polls for local elections. The US presidential election primary roadshow has pitched up in Michigan and later that day the voting begins. You can read more about this and other twists and turns in the Republican and Democrat campaigns from the Financial Times’s Washington reporter Steff Chávez in the US Election Countdown newsletter.

Iranians will also elect new representatives in their parliament on Friday.

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The day before that brings another British by-election in a seat previously held by a Conservative. This one is different, however. The campaign to be the new representative of the north-west English mill town of Rochdale has become one of the most toxic in modern British political history. The all-male list from which voters will choose features two candidates ditched by their respective parties because of comments about Israel and Palestine, one sacked previously by Labour for sending sexually explicit photos to a teenager, and the firebrand George Galloway. Our UK news team will have full coverage as the result arrives.

Another evolving UK news story has been the Post Office IT scandal, and this Tuesday MPs will take evidence from former Post Office chair Henry Staunton, current chief executive Nick Read and former sub-postmasters, including campaigner Alan Bates.

This is also the week of the WTO Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi. My colleague Alan Beattie will be providing insights in his latest Trade Secrets newsletter (for premium subscribers), out tomorrow. The death of global trade owing to the rise of populism and geopolitical shifts has been greatly exaggerated, but some roadblocks will definitely not get fixed this week, according to Alan. Sign up here to get Trade Secrets in your inbox each Monday.

We are approaching the end of the corporate reporting season, but you can expect a trickle of results with construction and food as the biggest themes, plus multiple central banker speeches. Another theme for this week is industry conferences with the annual mobile telecoms industry gathering at MWC in Barcelona and the Geneva International Motor Show.

One more thing . . . 

Some good news for at least the top half of the planet this week: meteorological spring is coming. And we will be getting an extra day to do something with given it’s a leap year.

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This could be an ideal time to book a spring break — mine is going to be a long weekend in the delightful English county of Suffolk. But don’t just take my word for it, read the HTSI holiday guide.

What are your plans for the next seven days, and what do you think is worth highlighting? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this in your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • Bank of England deputy governor Sarah Breeden opens the Bank of England Agenda for Research (BEAR) conference in London. Keynote speakers include Bo Becker, a professor at the Stockholm School of Economics, and Juliane Begenau, associate professor of finance at Stanford University.

  • Israel: interest rate announcement

  • Spain: MWC Barcelona, the world’s largest event for the mobile telecommunications industry, begins. Speakers include Vodafone chief executive Margherita Della Valle and Dell Technologies chair and CEO Michael Dell.

  • Switzerland: the 2024 Geneva International Motor Show opens, running until the weekend.

  • US: new home sales figures

  • Results: Bank of Ireland FY, Bunzl FY, Domino’s Pizza Q4, Fidelity National Information Q4, SBA Communications Q4, Zoom Q4

Tuesday

  • Bank of England deputy governor David Ramsden speaks at AFME Bond Trading, Innovation and Evolution Forum in London.

  • Germany: GfK Consumer Climate survey

  • Israel: local elections. Public holiday and financial markets closed.

  • Japan: February consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

  • UK: British Retail Consortium’s February Shop Price Index

  • US: January durable goods orders data

  • Results: Abrdn FY, AES Corp Q4, Agilent Technologies Q1, ASM International Q4, Bouygues FY, Coface FY, eBay Q4, Lowe’s Cos Q4, Smith & Nephew FY, Unite Group FY, Woodside Energy FY

Wednesday

  • Bank of England monetary policy committee member Catherine Mann speaks at the FT’s Future Forum online event.

  • FT Live Business of Football online conference kicks off.

  • Australia: January CPI inflation rate data

  • Germany: monthly retail sales figures

  • Hong Kong: financial secretary Paul Chan Mo-po presents the 2024-25 Budget to the Legislative Council.

  • New Zealand: RBNZ official cash rate decision

  • US: revised Q4 GDP growth figures

  • Results: Aston Martin Lagonda FY, Groupe Casino FY, Co-operative Bank FY, HP Q1, Just Eat Takeaway.com FY, Paramount Global Q4, Reckitt Benckiser FY, Salesforce Q4, St James’s Place FY, Taylor Wimpey FY, TJX Q4, Universal Health Services Q4, Universal Music Group Q4

Thursday

  • China: NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

  • France: Q4 GDP figures, plus February CPI and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data.

  • Germany: February unemployment figures, plus CPI and HICP inflation rate data.

  • India: Q3 GDP figures

  • US: January personal spending and PCE price index data.

  • Results: Adecco FY, Air France-KLM FY, Anheuser-Busch InBev FY, CVS Group HY, Getlink FY, Haleon FY, Hammerson FY, IAG FY, London Stock Exchange Group FY, Man Group FY, Mobico FY, Ocado FY, Schroders FY, Serco FY, Weir Group FY

Friday

  • Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at Cardiff University Business School.

  • Adriana Kugler, member of Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Ford Motor Company chief executive Jim Farley, Nvidia boss Jensen Huang and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice speak at Stanford University’s SIEPR Economic Summit.

  • Takeover Panel deadline for Julian Dunkerton to either announce a firm intention to bid for Superdry or say he does not intend to make an offer.

  • Brazil: Q4 GDP figures

  • Canada, China, EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/Caixin/HCOB manufacturing PMI data

  • EU: Core February CPI and HICP inflation rate data

  • South Korea: Independence Movement Day. Financial markets closed.

  • UK: Bank of England publishes statistics for Q4 on external business of monetary financial institutions operating in the UK. Also, February Nationwide House Price Index.

  • US: University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey

  • Results: Pearson FY, Rightmove FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

  • Hungary: National Assembly votes to ratify Sweden’s bid to join Nato with the vote expected to pass.

  • Kenya: sixth session of the UN Environment Assembly (UNEA) opens at the UNEP headquarters in Nairobi, running until Friday.

  • UAE: WTO Ministerial Conference begins in Abu Dhabi, running until Thursday.

  • Ukraine: Day of resistance to the occupation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol by Russia in 2014.

Tuesday

  • Brazil: first Brics finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in São Paulo.

  • UK: Former Post Office chair Henry Staunton, current chief executive Nick Read and former sub-postmasters, including campaigner Alan Bates, will give evidence to MPs on progress on redress to the Horizon IT scandal victims.

  • US: Michigan presidential primary elections.

Wednesday

  • Brazil: G20 finance ministers meet in São Paulo to prepare for the annual presidential summit in November.

  • UK: campaign group Liberty begins a legal challenge at London’s High Court over new police powers that broaden the definition under English Law of “serious disruption” in relation to peaceful protests.

Thursday

  • Leap Day adds an extra date to the month of February to accommodate the leap year in the Gregorian calendar.

  • UK: Rochdale by-election. Also, Keir Starmer: The Biography by Tom Baldwin is published by William Collins.

Friday

  • 70th anniversary of the first hydrogen bomb test on Bikini Atoll in the Marshall Islands.

  • 40th anniversary of the UK’s National Coal Board announcing the closure of Cortonwood Colliery in South Yorkshire, triggering the 1984 miners’ strike.

  • First day of meteorological spring.

  • The UN Security Council monthly presidency rotates from Guyana to Japan.

  • Iran: parliamentary elections.

  • UK: St David’s Day, celebrating the patron saint of Wales.

  • US: latest deadline for a new funding deal to avert a partial government shutdown in Washington. Also, President Joe Biden’s son Hunter is to appear for a deposition with House Republicans for their impeachment inquiry into his father.

Saturday

Sunday

  • 100th anniversary of the Ottoman Empire ending.

  • El Salvador: municipal elections.

  • UK: annual rail fares increase comes into force.

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Map: 5.1-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes off the Coast of California

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Map: 5.1-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes off the Coast of California

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Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Pacific time. The New York Times

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A moderately strong, 5.1-magnitude earthquake struck in the North Pacific Ocean on Wednesday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 5:45 a.m. Pacific time about 40 miles west of Petrolia, Calif., data from the agency shows.

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As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Aftershocks detected

Subsequent quakes have been reported in the same area. Such temblors are typically aftershocks caused by minor adjustments along the portion of a fault that slipped at the time of the initial earthquake.

Quakes and aftershocks within 100 miles

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Aftershocks can occur days, weeks or even years after the first earthquake. These events can be of equal or larger magnitude to the initial earthquake, and they can continue to affect already damaged locations.

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When quakes and aftershocks occurred

 All times are Pacific time. The New York Times

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Sources: United States Geological Survey (epicenter, aftershocks, shake intensity); LandScan via Oak Ridge National Laboratory (population density) | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Pacific time. Shake data is as of Wednesday, June 3 at 6:03 a.m. Pacific time. Aftershocks data is as of Wednesday, June 3 at 8:01 a.m. Pacific time.

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California’s primary for governor is undecided as candidates vie to be in the top two

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California’s primary for governor is undecided as candidates vie to be in the top two

Xavier Becerra, Democratic gubernatorial candidate for California, and Steve Hilton, Republican gubernatorial candidate for California, shake hands while arriving for a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco in April.

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SAN FRANCISCO — The primary election for California governor is too close to call, with vote counting continuing Wednesday. Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican business executive Steve Hilton lead the field with Democrat Tom Steyer in third place.

In California’s unusual primary system, all candidates, regardless of party, appear on a single ballot open to any registered voter. The top two candidates then move on to the general election, even if they’re from the same party. This year, voters had 60 names for governor to choose from.

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The winner will lead the country’s most populous state, where leaders often take on national political prominence. Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom is at his two-term limit and could be a Democratic contender for president.

Becerra, former Health and Human Services secretary under President Joe Biden, pitched himself to voters as an experienced political leader who isn’t afraid of President Trump, but his lead caps one of the most surprising and dramatic comebacks in recent state political history. As recently as April, polls were showing Becerra — also a former member of Congress and California attorney general — languishing in single digits in a crowded field.

In his remarks at his watch party in Los Angeles, Becerra noted his underdog status.

“Here in Hollywood’s hometown, we love a good underdog success story,” he said, drawing parallels between his campaign and his immigrant parents’ success story in California. “Guess what? The underdog stayed in the fight. Like my parents, I never gave up. Never stopped putting one foot in front of the other. Never stopped believing in the beacon-like goodness of California. And thankfully, neither did you.”

Hilton is a former Fox News commentator who also served as a political adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron. He was endorsed by President Trump in April, helping him to pull ahead of Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the other major Republican in the race. Hilton has campaigned on the idea that California needs change after 16 years under total Democratic control.

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The race is narrowing down after a tumultuous campaign

At his watch party in Huntington Beach, the British-born candidate — who became an American citizen five years ago — said it was the “honor of his lifetime” to receive over 1 million votes so far.

“Change is coming to California and it’s long overdue,” Hilton said. “We’re not there yet, but it’s looking good. It looks very much as if Californians really will have the chance to vote for change in November and take our state in a new direction.”

Democratic billionaire activist Steyer spent more than $213 million of his own money to boost his candidacy and push a progressive, populist message. While he was trailing Becerra and Hilton on Tuesday night, he said at his watch party in San Francisco that he remains confident he can close the gap in the days ahead.

“Together, we’ve scared the hell out of the corporate interests used to getting their way,” Steyer said. “It might take some time to figure out where this is going. We’re going to wait until every ballot is counted. We’re gonna give democracy a time to work. And we know we finished really strong.”

The early results are not certain to hold, in part because of unusual voting patterns in this primary election: Ballot-tracking data heading into Tuesday evening showed that Republicans were more likely to vote early by mail, while Democratic voters in this deep-blue state held onto their mail-in ballots or chose to vote in person. That’s the reverse of recent elections, which saw more Democrats voting by mail and Republicans tending to vote in person on Election Day.

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The uncertainty on election night capped a race that remained crowded and unsettled to the end. To some extent, the race was defined by who wasn’t running.

Some of the state’s most high-profile Democrats — former Vice President Kamala Harris, U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla and California Attorney General Rob Bonta — all passed on a potential bid to succeed Newsom.

The race was disrupted in April when then-U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell’s campaign for governor imploded amid allegations of sexual assault and harassment. Swalwell resigned from Congress shortly after the accusations surfaced and has denied assault allegations.

Swalwell had been gaining in polls and racking up high-profile endorsements, and his exit seemed to primarily benefit Becerra, who had been stuck in single digits in many polls. Ultimately, it quieted fears among Democrats who worried that the messy Democratic field could result in Bianco and Hilton winning the top spots in the June primary.

Marisa Lagos covers California politics at KQED and co-hosts the Political Breakdown show and podcast.

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Supreme Court reinstates Republican-favored Alabama congressional districts

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Supreme Court reinstates Republican-favored Alabama congressional districts

The U.S. Supreme Court

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The Supreme Court on Tuesday cleared the way for Alabama to use a congressional district map favored by Republicans.

The court, in an unsigned order, overturned a three-judge district court panel that found that the map is “tainted by intentional race-based discrimination.” The court’s three liberals publicly dissented.

The ruling means that Alabama’s 2026 midterm elections will feature six Republican-leaning districts and one Democratic-leaning one, as opposed to a map with only five safe Republican seats. Democrat Shomari Figures, who represents Alabama’s Second District, will likely lose his seat as a result of the high court’s ruling.

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The story of Alabama’s congressional map is long and tortured. It began in 2021, when the state implemented a new map to account for population changes in the census. The map featured only one majority-black district out of seven, even though the state is more than one-quarter Black.

Voters immediately sued, claiming the map illegally diluted minority votes in violation of the Voting Rights Act and the Constitution. Lower court judges agreed, ruling that the state must draw a map with two districts where Black voters have a realistic chance of electing their candidate of choice. The Supreme Court more than once has ordered Alabama to draw a compliant map.

But the state has refused and instead continued to litigate the case. On Tuesday, that tactic paid off.

What changed? In April, the Supreme Court’s conservative supermajority all but gutted what remains of the Voting Rights Act, ruling that states cannot purposefully draw districts that are majority-minority.

Alabama then asked the high court to reinstate the state’s old map, under the theory that this new ruling meant that it was permissible to use a map with only one majority-Black district. In an unsigned, unexplained order in May, the high court essentially reversed its previous opinions, and allowed Alabama to use the old map for the upcoming midterm elections.

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This set off a flurry of activity in Alabama. By the time the Supreme Court issued its May order, absentee balloting had already begun, using the court-drawn map. So Republican Governor Kay Ivey cancelled elections and scheduled a special primary for August for the affected congressional races.

The case, however, was not over.

In its ruling, the Supreme Court had ordered a lower court panel to continue evaluating Alabama’s map in light of its recent Voting Rights Act decision. And just 15 days after that order, the panel, composed of three Republican judges—two of them Trump appointees—concluded unanimously that even under the Supreme Court’s new standards, the plan for a single black district was “intentionally discriminatory.”

So, once again, Alabama returned to the Supreme Court, arguing that the map was partisan, not racially discriminatory. In short, that the Republican legislature simply drew the map to elect more Republicans. And that under the Supreme Court’s new interpretation of the Voting Rights Act, the GOP map should be allowed to stand.

The court’s conservative agreed, writing that the lower court “did not heed the presumption of legislative good faith.”

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The court’s three liberals publicly dissented, castigating the conservative majority for failing to abide by its 2006 decision in the case of Purcell v. Gonzalez. That decision declared that courts should not change election rules too close to an election.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor, in her dissent, said the court “debases the democratic process” and “corrodes the rule of law by rewarding Alabama’s gamesmanship and outright defiance of court orders.”

Tuesday’s decision is the latest in a series of Supreme Court rulings that could well reshape the 2026 midterm elections, making it much harder for Democrats to prevail.

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