Connect with us

News

Visual analysis: Ukraine’s war of survival enters third year

Published

on

Visual analysis: Ukraine’s war of survival enters third year

Ukrainians enter the third year of war with a bleaker outlook than at any point since the early days of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion on February 24 2022.

A year ago they were brimming with optimism over their chances of pushing Moscow’s troops back and breaking the so-called land bridge between the occupied Crimean peninsula and the other parts of Russian-held territory in eastern Ukraine. But the counteroffensive failed to make headway, with opposing forces now entrenched along the 1,000km frontline.

Kyiv’s best hope is to hold the line and cause its enemy much higher casualties than it incurs. Putin’s bet is that Russian superiority in both mobilising men and defence industrial production will break western and Ukrainian resolve.

Most Ukrainians are determined to fight on for their freedom. But their forces are running low on ammunition and air defence interceptors. The country also needs to find about 500,000 new recruits this year. Wavering US military support and Europe struggling to make up shortfalls in arms supplies will make this more difficult.

Here is a visual guide to how Russia’s war against Ukraine is bearing on each nation’s military, economy and politics.

Advertisement

Military

The land battle in 2023 consisted of minor gains for the Ukrainian forces, compared with their lightning counteroffensive in 2022 which liberated swaths of territory.

Ukraine lost the eastern city of Bakhmut in May after a gruelling nine-month battle in which Russia was estimated to have lost some 30,000 men. Many of the dead were convicts recruited by the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who a month later staged a mutiny against Moscow and then died in a plane crash.

The much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive of summer 2023 ground to a halt after advancing a mere 30km. Russian minefields and fortifications coupled with constant drone surveillance and instant artillery strikes proved insurmountable.

Valeriy Zaluzhny, then commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, admitted in November that the land war was at a “stalemate” and that only a technological revolution, including drones and electronic warfare, would give his country back the advantage. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy replaced Zaluzhny with Oleksandr Syrsky this month.

Key battlefield and frontline movements

You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.

Advertisement

Ukraine’s strategy of “active defence” is intended to bleed the enemy while minimising its own losses. Russia on the other hand is taking the “meat-grinder” approach by recruiting vast numbers of soldiers who seem expendable on the battlefield.

Western officials estimate some 350,000 Russians have been killed or badly injured since February 2022, while 70,000 Ukrainians have died and 120,000 have been seriously wounded.

After a mobilisation wave in 2022, Moscow claims to have recruited an additional 490,000 men last year mostly by offering generous pay and recruiting convicts from prisons. While Ukraine struggles to replace soldiers who have been fighting for two years, Russia is expected to add another 400,000 fresh recruits in 2024.

You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.

Towards the end of 2023, Ukraine began facing shortfalls in artillery supplies from the US and Europe. Rationing of shells is having an impact on the battlefield, making it harder for Ukrainian forces to fend off Russian infantry assaults or strike battery positions. This month, Ukraine withdrew its troops from the frontline town of Avdiivka after a four-month battle.

With the land war looking grim, Ukraine pivoted last year to using technology to carry out daring attacks within occupied territory and in Russia.

Advertisement

Ukraine’s biggest military achievements were drone and missile strikes against military facilities in Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukrainian forces are estimated to have sunk one-fifth of Russia’s Black Sea fleet stationed in the area.

You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.

There has also been a vast uptick in attacks deeper into Russian territory, with home-built Ukrainian missiles and drones striking military facilities, munitions factories and energy infrastructure in Russia.

Ukraine aims to step up these strikes on Russian soil in 2024, with the aim of at least disrupting if not crippling the Kremlin’s war effort and bringing the conflict home to ordinary Russians.

You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.

Economy and trade

Both Russia and Ukraine’s war economies grew faster than expected last year, with Moscow defying western sanctions imposed in 2022 that were aimed at reducing the Kremlin’s revenues and ability to fund the conflict.

The Kremlin has been successful in evading curbs on its oil exports, while at the same time firing up the Russian defence industrial complex to produce large amounts of ammunition, drones, missiles and armour. However, Ukrainian and western officials say sanctions banning western chip exports to Russia are limiting Moscow’s capacity to produce more sophisticated kit.

Advertisement

Russia’s annual artillery munition production has risen from 800,000 prewar to an estimated 2.5mn, or 4mn including refurbished shells. EU and US production capacity stands at about 700,000 and 400,000 respectively, although the EU aims to hit 1.4mn by the end of this year and the US 1.2mn by 2024.

You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.

Ukraine’s economy suffered a catastrophic slump following Russia’s full-scale invasion, but it has since begun to recover.

One bright spot for Kyiv is that its attacks on Russia’s Black Sea fleet in Crimea have forced the Kremlin to pull its ships away from the Ukrainian coast. This has allowed Ukraine to restart regular cargo shipping from its Black Sea ports, despite Russia pulling out of the grain initiative, which has restored a major export route and vital economic lifeline.

You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.

The surge in Russia’s defence spending may be buoying the growth of gross domestic product but it is also fuelling inflation, which is now higher than in Ukraine.

This will erode real wages and living standards in a country where investments in crumbling Soviet-era infrastructure and public utilities are badly needed.

Advertisement

You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.

Politics

Ahead of Putin’s expected re-election in March, a new wave of repression against dissenting voices is taking place in Russia. Western politicians and regime critics have roundly blamed Putin for the death of the president’s most prominent critic, Alexei Navalny.

While few signs of the public turning against the president are reflected in opinion polls, this may not be a reliable indicator in a regime dominated by fear. Anti-war criticism is outlawed in Russia and any show of support for dissidents is crushed.

You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.

Zelenskyy’s public support is not holding up quite so well, as war fatigue and fears of abandonment by western allies set in.

The Ukrainian leader has also faced criticism over his decision to replace Zaluzhny and accusations of the erosion of media freedom. Elections in Ukraine have also been suspended during the country’s state of emergency.

You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.

Advertisement

Nevertheless, some 85 per cent of Ukrainians are confident of their country’s victory over Russia, according to a survey in February conducted by the Kyiv-based Rating Group.

However, Ukrainians know that international support is an important condition for victory. Just 19 per cent of respondents believed Ukraine could defeat Russia without international assistance.

Support for Ukraine dropped markedly in the US last year, particularly among Republicans, who have held up further military aid for Kyiv and whose presidential frontrunner Donald Trump is seeking to oust Ukraine ally Joe Biden from the White House in November.

Unless Congress approves a $60bn aid package, there will be no further transfers of weaponry from US stockpiles to Ukraine.

You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.

In the EU there is still a solid majority in favour of helping Ukraine, but public support is beginning to soften, potentially increasing pressure on European leaders to rethink their stance.

But for now there is no sign of solidarity with Kyiv breaking down. After a two-month delay caused by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, EU leaders this month agreed a four-year €50bn financial support plan for Ukraine and several European capitals have made significant pledges of military aid.

Advertisement

You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.

Most military experts said Russia probably lacked the combat power to break through Ukrainian defensive positions in a sweeping manoeuvre this year.

But Ukraine urgently needs western supplies of ammunition. If it does not receive them, holding its lines will prove difficult — and Kyiv risks losing a lot of men by simply holding on, even if it does so successfully.

“What Ukraine is losing is its capacity to mount a counteroffensive,” said military analyst François Heisbourg.

News

Map: 5.1-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes off the Coast of California

Published

on

Map: 5.1-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes off the Coast of California

Advertisement

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Pacific time. The New York Times

Advertisement

A moderately strong, 5.1-magnitude earthquake struck in the North Pacific Ocean on Wednesday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 5:45 a.m. Pacific time about 40 miles west of Petrolia, Calif., data from the agency shows.

Advertisement

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

Advertisement
Advertisement

Aftershocks detected

Subsequent quakes have been reported in the same area. Such temblors are typically aftershocks caused by minor adjustments along the portion of a fault that slipped at the time of the initial earthquake.

Quakes and aftershocks within 100 miles

Advertisement

Aftershocks can occur days, weeks or even years after the first earthquake. These events can be of equal or larger magnitude to the initial earthquake, and they can continue to affect already damaged locations.

Advertisement

When quakes and aftershocks occurred

 All times are Pacific time. The New York Times

Advertisement

Sources: United States Geological Survey (epicenter, aftershocks, shake intensity); LandScan via Oak Ridge National Laboratory (population density) | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Pacific time. Shake data is as of Wednesday, June 3 at 6:03 a.m. Pacific time. Aftershocks data is as of Wednesday, June 3 at 8:01 a.m. Pacific time.

Advertisement

Continue Reading

News

California’s primary for governor is undecided as candidates vie to be in the top two

Published

on

California’s primary for governor is undecided as candidates vie to be in the top two

Xavier Becerra, Democratic gubernatorial candidate for California, and Steve Hilton, Republican gubernatorial candidate for California, shake hands while arriving for a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco in April.

Jason Henry/Getty Images North America


hide caption

toggle caption

Advertisement

Jason Henry/Getty Images North America

SAN FRANCISCO — The primary election for California governor is too close to call, with vote counting continuing Wednesday. Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican business executive Steve Hilton lead the field with Democrat Tom Steyer in third place.

In California’s unusual primary system, all candidates, regardless of party, appear on a single ballot open to any registered voter. The top two candidates then move on to the general election, even if they’re from the same party. This year, voters had 60 names for governor to choose from.

Advertisement

The winner will lead the country’s most populous state, where leaders often take on national political prominence. Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom is at his two-term limit and could be a Democratic contender for president.

Becerra, former Health and Human Services secretary under President Joe Biden, pitched himself to voters as an experienced political leader who isn’t afraid of President Trump, but his lead caps one of the most surprising and dramatic comebacks in recent state political history. As recently as April, polls were showing Becerra — also a former member of Congress and California attorney general — languishing in single digits in a crowded field.

In his remarks at his watch party in Los Angeles, Becerra noted his underdog status.

“Here in Hollywood’s hometown, we love a good underdog success story,” he said, drawing parallels between his campaign and his immigrant parents’ success story in California. “Guess what? The underdog stayed in the fight. Like my parents, I never gave up. Never stopped putting one foot in front of the other. Never stopped believing in the beacon-like goodness of California. And thankfully, neither did you.”

Hilton is a former Fox News commentator who also served as a political adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron. He was endorsed by President Trump in April, helping him to pull ahead of Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the other major Republican in the race. Hilton has campaigned on the idea that California needs change after 16 years under total Democratic control.

Advertisement

The race is narrowing down after a tumultuous campaign

At his watch party in Huntington Beach, the British-born candidate — who became an American citizen five years ago — said it was the “honor of his lifetime” to receive over 1 million votes so far.

“Change is coming to California and it’s long overdue,” Hilton said. “We’re not there yet, but it’s looking good. It looks very much as if Californians really will have the chance to vote for change in November and take our state in a new direction.”

Democratic billionaire activist Steyer spent more than $213 million of his own money to boost his candidacy and push a progressive, populist message. While he was trailing Becerra and Hilton on Tuesday night, he said at his watch party in San Francisco that he remains confident he can close the gap in the days ahead.

“Together, we’ve scared the hell out of the corporate interests used to getting their way,” Steyer said. “It might take some time to figure out where this is going. We’re going to wait until every ballot is counted. We’re gonna give democracy a time to work. And we know we finished really strong.”

The early results are not certain to hold, in part because of unusual voting patterns in this primary election: Ballot-tracking data heading into Tuesday evening showed that Republicans were more likely to vote early by mail, while Democratic voters in this deep-blue state held onto their mail-in ballots or chose to vote in person. That’s the reverse of recent elections, which saw more Democrats voting by mail and Republicans tending to vote in person on Election Day.

Advertisement

The uncertainty on election night capped a race that remained crowded and unsettled to the end. To some extent, the race was defined by who wasn’t running.

Some of the state’s most high-profile Democrats — former Vice President Kamala Harris, U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla and California Attorney General Rob Bonta — all passed on a potential bid to succeed Newsom.

The race was disrupted in April when then-U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell’s campaign for governor imploded amid allegations of sexual assault and harassment. Swalwell resigned from Congress shortly after the accusations surfaced and has denied assault allegations.

Swalwell had been gaining in polls and racking up high-profile endorsements, and his exit seemed to primarily benefit Becerra, who had been stuck in single digits in many polls. Ultimately, it quieted fears among Democrats who worried that the messy Democratic field could result in Bianco and Hilton winning the top spots in the June primary.

Marisa Lagos covers California politics at KQED and co-hosts the Political Breakdown show and podcast.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

News

Supreme Court reinstates Republican-favored Alabama congressional districts

Published

on

Supreme Court reinstates Republican-favored Alabama congressional districts

The U.S. Supreme Court

Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images


hide caption

toggle caption

Advertisement

Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

The Supreme Court on Tuesday cleared the way for Alabama to use a congressional district map favored by Republicans.

The court, in an unsigned order, overturned a three-judge district court panel that found that the map is “tainted by intentional race-based discrimination.” The court’s three liberals publicly dissented.

The ruling means that Alabama’s 2026 midterm elections will feature six Republican-leaning districts and one Democratic-leaning one, as opposed to a map with only five safe Republican seats. Democrat Shomari Figures, who represents Alabama’s Second District, will likely lose his seat as a result of the high court’s ruling.

Advertisement

The story of Alabama’s congressional map is long and tortured. It began in 2021, when the state implemented a new map to account for population changes in the census. The map featured only one majority-black district out of seven, even though the state is more than one-quarter Black.

Voters immediately sued, claiming the map illegally diluted minority votes in violation of the Voting Rights Act and the Constitution. Lower court judges agreed, ruling that the state must draw a map with two districts where Black voters have a realistic chance of electing their candidate of choice. The Supreme Court more than once has ordered Alabama to draw a compliant map.

But the state has refused and instead continued to litigate the case. On Tuesday, that tactic paid off.

What changed? In April, the Supreme Court’s conservative supermajority all but gutted what remains of the Voting Rights Act, ruling that states cannot purposefully draw districts that are majority-minority.

Alabama then asked the high court to reinstate the state’s old map, under the theory that this new ruling meant that it was permissible to use a map with only one majority-Black district. In an unsigned, unexplained order in May, the high court essentially reversed its previous opinions, and allowed Alabama to use the old map for the upcoming midterm elections.

Advertisement

This set off a flurry of activity in Alabama. By the time the Supreme Court issued its May order, absentee balloting had already begun, using the court-drawn map. So Republican Governor Kay Ivey cancelled elections and scheduled a special primary for August for the affected congressional races.

The case, however, was not over.

In its ruling, the Supreme Court had ordered a lower court panel to continue evaluating Alabama’s map in light of its recent Voting Rights Act decision. And just 15 days after that order, the panel, composed of three Republican judges—two of them Trump appointees—concluded unanimously that even under the Supreme Court’s new standards, the plan for a single black district was “intentionally discriminatory.”

So, once again, Alabama returned to the Supreme Court, arguing that the map was partisan, not racially discriminatory. In short, that the Republican legislature simply drew the map to elect more Republicans. And that under the Supreme Court’s new interpretation of the Voting Rights Act, the GOP map should be allowed to stand.

The court’s conservative agreed, writing that the lower court “did not heed the presumption of legislative good faith.”

Advertisement

The court’s three liberals publicly dissented, castigating the conservative majority for failing to abide by its 2006 decision in the case of Purcell v. Gonzalez. That decision declared that courts should not change election rules too close to an election.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor, in her dissent, said the court “debases the democratic process” and “corrodes the rule of law by rewarding Alabama’s gamesmanship and outright defiance of court orders.”

Tuesday’s decision is the latest in a series of Supreme Court rulings that could well reshape the 2026 midterm elections, making it much harder for Democrats to prevail.

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending