Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures during a campaign rally in Pittsburgh, Pa., on Monday, the night before Election Day.
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It’s possible former President Donald Trump will win the election — and also quite possible he loses. But many in Trump’s orbit keep falsely telling his supporters the only way that happens is because of cheating.
Polling indicates a competitive race in seven battleground states that will decide if Trump or Vice President Harris is the next president, states where voters’ political and demographic makeups mean there are no guaranteed winners.
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Trump still insists he did not lose the 2020 election, despite numerous recounts and court cases that did not find evidence of fraud. His 2024 campaign is built on that foundation, telling his supporters the only way to “Make America Great Again” in a second term is to vote so that his victory could be “too big to rig.”
A large part of Trump’s closing message in recent weeks has focused on attacking any outcome other than victory as tainted, illegitimate and fraudulent, with no proof or basis in reality.
He has regularly questioned the legality of Harris’ role as the Democratic presidential nominee, calling President Biden’s decision to end his reelection bid and her subsequent selection under Democratic Party rules a “coup.”
After his supporters launched a failed insurrection attempt at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump has still refused to say if he would accept the results of this election, win or lose.
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Eric Trump and his wife, Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump high-five during a rally for former President Donald Trump in Reading, Pa., on Monday.
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Alongside the Republican National Committee, led by his daughter-in-law Lara Trump, Trump’s legal team has planted the seeds to cry foul in several key states if he loses, like Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, filing numerous lawsuits seeking to disqualify voters and ballots or demand rule changes they say suppress Republican voters.
The final days of the campaign have seen a barrage of baseless claims about voting rules, possible election outcomes and Trump’s chances to win from a constellation of his family, friends and faithful associates.
Social media site X has been home to a proliferation of false fraud claims about the election, and the site’s owner, billionaire Elon Musk, has used his considerable platform to amplify conspiracy theories about ballot counting and other normal election procedures while misleadingly sharing early voting data to claim a “decisive Republican victory.”
On Monday, Trump’s son Donald Trump, Jr. riled up a partially empty arena in North Carolina by urging people to show up to vote en masse so “you don’t give [Democrats] a week to find that magical truck of ballots.”
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Trump himself has posted online that “Pennsylvania is cheating” and often dedicates parts of his rambling rallies to accusing his opponents of cheating while bragging about often-overinflated poll numbers.
In Pittsburgh Monday night at his penultimate presidential campaign rally, Trump said he has been given “about a 96.2% chance” of winning Tuesday, of which there is no evidence.
Many factors go into a Trump loss — or win
Polling, election analysts and math suggests Trump does not have a 96.2% chance of winning enough states to be the Electoral College winner. The reason the race is instead very close is not fraud, but rather several potential warning signs with his third presidential campaign and voters’ reaction to it.
In several of the swing states, there are lingering effects from the public and private pressure campaign he exerted to get Republican lawmakers and officials to overturn his 2020 defeat. The 2022 midterms saw several high-profile Trump-backed candidates who embraced the false fraud claims falter in what otherwise should have been a good year for Republicans.
His feuds with Republicans who defended the election results led to a notable loss of support among independent voters and conservatives who oppose his candidacy.
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Efforts the RNC undertook to make inroads with nonwhite voters in the last election cycle have been abandoned in favor of beefed-up election integrity teams. As a result, much of the get-out-the-vote operation has been outsourced to inexperienced third parties.
After the Supreme Court overturned the longstanding Roe v. Wade decision that guaranteed a national right to obtain abortion care, Republicans have lost ground with women, especially in states that have passed strict abortion bans in the aftermath of that decision.
In many states, Trump’s plea for Republicans to “bank your vote” and participate in early voting appears to have paid off, but election data also shows a sizable share of those voters shifted from Election Day. That could potentially lead to lower Republican turnout Tuesday as part of an overall shift in voter behavior since the pandemic-era 2020 presidential race.
All of these factors could lead to a Trump loss when all the votes are counted, or be footnotes if he wins, but none of them involve the widespread voter fraud he has primed his supporters to be ready for, without cause.
credibility issues, it would not rely exclusively on information provided by Mr. Greenberg in
making any findings.
Shortly after DOJ withdrew its deferral request and the Committee reauthorized its review,
the Committee sent DOJ a request for information. After three months without a response despite
repeated follow up, the Committee submitted FOIA requests to several relevant DOJ offices, which
to date have not been adequately processed.6 The Committee continued to reach out to DOJ
throughout 2023, having still not received a substantive response to its request for information.
On January 12, 2024, the Committee received its first correspondence from DOJ on the matter. At
that time, DOJ provided no substantive response or explanation for its delay; instead, DOJ simply
stated that it “do[es] not provide non-public information about law enforcement investigations that
do not result in charges.”7 This “policy” is, however, inconsistent with DOJ’s historical conduct
with respect to the Committee and its unique role in upholding the integrity of the House. 8
Thereafter, the Committee determined to issue a subpoena to DOJ to obtain records relating
to its investigation of Representative Gaetz. DOJ did not comply with the subpoena by the date
required, but suggested it remained “committed to good-faith engagement with the Committee.”
In the spirit of cooperation, the Committee provided a list of specific responsive documents, setting
999
6 The U.S. Attorney’s Office affirmatively declined the Committee’s FOIA request as “categorically exempt from
disclosure.” However, the reasons cited for not disclosing responsive records are not applicable to the Committee’s
request it did not consider the special access granted to Congress pursuant to 5 U.S.C. § 522(8)(d) (stating that
FOIA “is not an authority to withhold information from Congress” even when an exemption may otherwise be
implicated), nor did it consider the overriding public interest exception, which has been applied to information that
would inform the public about proven violations of public trust (see, e.g., Columbia Packing Co., Inc v. Department
of Agriculture, 564 F.3d 495, 499 (1st Cir. 1977) (federal employees found guilty of accepting bribes);
Congressional News Syndicate v. Department of Justice, 438 F. Supp. 538, 544 (D.D.C. 1977) (misconduct by
White House staffers)).
7
8
Letter from U.S. Attorney’s Office, U.S. Department of Justice, to Chairman Michael Guest and Ranking Member
Susan Wild, Committee on Ethics (Jan. 12, 2024).
Comm. on Ethics, In the Matter of Representative Don Young, H. Rept. 113-487, 113th Cong., 2d Sess. (2014)
(hereinafter Young) (discussing information and documents provided to the Committee by DOJ relating to a Federal
Bureau of Investigation (FBI) investigation of Representative Young); Comm. on Standards of Official Conduct, In
the Matter of Representative James McDermott, H. Rept. 109-732, 109th Cong., 2d Sess. 5 (2006) (hereinafter
McDermott) (noting that the investigative subcommittee requested and obtained documents from DOJ regarding its
investigation of the matter); Comm. on Standards of Official Conduct, In the Matter of Representative Jay Kim, H.
Rept. 105-797, 105th Cong., 2d Sess. 79 (1998) (noting the FBI provided “valuable assistance to the Investigative
Subcommittee throughout its inquiry.”); Comm. on Standards of Official Conduct, Investigation Pursuant to House
Resolution 12 Concerning Alleged Illicit Use or Distribution of Drugs by Members, Officers, or Employees of the
House, H. Rept. 98-559, 98th Cong., 1 st Sess. 21 (1983) (“the Special Counsel and the Attorney General entered
into an agreement whereby the Department was to provide the Committee non-privileged results of the
Department’s drug investigation, provided that access to the material was restricted to certain named individuals and
that certain security precautions were taken.”); Comm. on Standards of Official Conduct, In the Matter of
Representative Raymond F. Lederer, H. Rept. 97-110,97th Cong., 1 st Sess. (1981); Comm. on Standards of Official
Conduct, In the Matter of Representative Michael J. Myers, H. Rept. 96-1387, 96th Cong., 2d Sess. (1980); Comm.
on Standards of Official Conduct, In the Matter of Representative John W. Jenrette, Jr., H. Rept. 96-1537, 96th
Cong., 2d Sess. 2 (1980) (noting the Special Counsel and DOJ entered into an agreement “covering the receipt of
confidential information in respect to the investigation” into a Member who was a subject of DOJ investigations
known as ABSCAM).
9 Letter from U.S. Attorney’s Office, U.S. Department of Justice, to Chairman Michael Guest and Ranking Member
Susan Wild, Committee on Ethics (Feb. 13, 2024).
5
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
France’s new prime minister François Bayrou has selected Eric Lombard, head of state-backed financial group Caisse des Dépôts, as finance minister, handing him the key role of trying to enact a budget for next year.
Lombard will be tasked with coming up with a tax and spending plan for 2025 that can be approved by France’s raucous hung parliament, while also starting to repair’s the country’s degraded public finances.
Bayrou’s predecessor, Michel Barnier, was ousted by the national assembly in a vote of no confidence earlier this month because of opposition from leftwing and far-right political parties to his deficit-cutting budget.
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Members of Bayrou’s cabinet were unveiled on Monday night after days of wrangling between him and President Emmanuel Macron, who officially names the ministers after recommendations from the premier.
Macron and Bayrou are under pressure to end political turmoil in France by creating a government that can survive and pass key measures in the divided parliament.
France is on its fourth prime minister this year, an unprecedented level of churn in France’s Fifth Republic, which was founded in 1958.
Barnier’s administration only lasted three months, making him the shortest-serving head of government.
Far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who played a decisive role in removing Barnier, is likely to have a big influence on whether Bayrou can succeed since her Rassemblement National party is the biggest in the National Assembly.
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Brussels and financial markets have been scrutinising France to see if it can begin to reduce its deficit, which ballooned to about 6 per cent of national output this year, far above the EU limit of 3 per cent.
Bayrou, who leads the small MoDem party that has been allied with Macron’s centrist bloc in parliament since 2017, does not have enough votes to pass a budget.
If Bayrou seeks to override lawmakers and invoke a clause in France’s constitution to pass the budget, as Barnier did, he will be vulnerable to another no-confidence vote.
A stop-gap emergency budget was approved by parliament last week to avoid a shutdown of government services in January.
Lombard, a 66-year-old former banker, has since 2017 led Caisse des Dépôts, which makes long-term investments in public housing, infrastructure and green projects.
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On defence and international diplomacy, which are considered the domain of the president and not the prime minister, Macron has chosen continuity by keeping on loyalist Sébastien Lecornu as minister of the armies and Jean-Noël Barrot as minister of foreign affairs. Both served in Barnier’s government.
Bruno Retailleau, a rightwinger who made his mark as interior minister with tough talk on immigration and crime in Barnier’s administration, has also been retained in his existing brief.
Former premier Élisabeth Borne, also from Macron’s centrist camp, will return as education minister.
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Luigi Mangione, the 26-year-old accused of killing UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, has pleaded not guilty to all 11 charges in New York.
Mangione is accused of killing Thomspon outside a Manhattan hotel on December 4. Police arrested him on December 9 in Altoona, Pennsylvania after they received a tip he was eating a meal inside a McDonald’s.
Here’s what’s next for Mangione as he faces charges at the federal level and in two states:
Court appearances so far
Mangione’s first court appearance was an arraignment in Pennsylvania on December 10, one day after he was arrested in the town of Altoona. Police detained him after receiving a tip he was eating at a McDonald’s.
Mangione struggled with police and shouted to reporters standing nearby as he was escorted into his first hearing.
“It’s completely out of touch and an insult to the intelligence of the American people and their lived experience,” he yelled.
Then, on December 19, Mangione was flown from Pennsylvania to New York after waiving his right to an extradition hearing. Several heavily armed NYPD officers, alongside New York City Mayor Eric Adams, escorted Mangione.
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Mangione appeared in the New York State Supreme Court on December 23 for an arraignment hearing, pleading not guilty to the 11 charges he faces in the state, including first-degree murder in furtherance of terrorism, second-degree murder in furtherance of terrorism and multiple weapons offenses.
Demonstrators gathered outside the courthouse in support of Mangione. Many held signs decrying the insurance industry, with phrases such as “Health over wealth”, and “UHC kills, death by denials.” Others supported Mangione with signs that read, “Free Luigi.”
What has Mangione been charged with?
In New York, Mangione faces 11 charges. Prosecutors have hit him with first-degree murder, which they describe as an “act of terrorism”; second-degree murder as a crime of terrorism; second-degree murder; second-degree criminal possession of a forged instrument; and several counts related to weapon possession.
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At the federal level, prosecutors charged Mangione with two counts of interstate stalking, one count of murder through use of a firearm and one count of using a firearm silencer during a violent crime. Prosecutors said the state and federal two cases will run on parallel tracks, and that the New York charges will likely go to trial first.
In response, Mangione’s attorney Karen Agnifilo condemned the federal charges.
“The federal government’s reported decision to pile on top of an already overcharged first-degree murder and state terror case is highly unusual and raises serious constitutional and statutory double jeopardy concerns,” she said in a statement. “We are ready to fight these charges in whatever court they are brought.”
However, the Supreme Court in 2019 upheld a longstanding constitutional rule that allows state and federal governments to prosecute someone for the same crime, according to the Associated Press.
While New York abolished the death penalty in 2007, Mangione could still face capital punishment in the federal case.
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In Pennsylvania, he faces charges related to officials’ alleged discovery of a 3D-printed gun and fake ID cards in his possession when he was arrested. Police also say they found a silencer, a 262-word manifesto and a spiral notebook containing a “to-do list”.
However, these charges likely won’t be addressed until after the New York case is resolved.
Where is Mangione being held?
Mangione is being held without bail in the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, New York. There, several other high-profile people are incarcerated, including former head of FTX Sam Bankman-Fried and Sean “Diddy” Combs, the rapper accused of sex trafficking and other crimes.
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Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell were also once held at the prison.
The notorious Brooklyn facility, the only federal lockup in the city, has been variously described as “hell on earth” and an “ongoing tragedy” because of deplorable conditions, rampant violence, dysfunction and multiple deaths, according to the Associated Press.
The federal Bureau of Prisons has said it is increasing staffing to make up for staggering shortfalls, but conditions have been so stark at the jail, which houses about 1,100 inmates, that some judges have refused to send people there.
When is Mangione’s next court date?
Mangione is set to appear in federal court on January 18. He could return to court for a bail hearing or for a preliminary hearing if prosecutors don’t get a grand jury indictment by mid-January, the Associated Press reports.
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His next scheduled appearance in New York is set for February 21.
What prosecutors and Mangione’s attorneys have said
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg called Thompson’s murder “frightening” and “well planned.”
“This was a killing that was intended to evoke terror and we’ve seen that reaction,” Bragg said last week. “This was not an ordinary killing. Not to suggest that any killing is ordinary, but this was extraordinary.”
Acting US Attorney Edward Kim issued a statement claiming Thompson was killed in “cold blood” as the Justice Department announced the federal charges against Mangione.
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“Brian Thompson was gunned down in cold blood as he walked down a street in midtown Manhattan,” Kim said. “Thompson was allegedly killed just because he held the position of chief executive officer of a health insurance company.”
“As alleged, Luigi Mangione traveled to New York to stalk and shoot Thompson in broad daylight in front of a Manhattan hotel, all in a grossly misguided attempt to broadcast Mangione’s views across the country,” he continued. “But this wasn’t a debate, it was murder, and Mangione now faces federal charges.”
Agnifilo told New York Judge Gregory Carro at the December 23 arraignment that she was concerned about getting her client a fair trial. She cited Adams’s presence among the several heavily armed officials who escorted Mangione as he was flown in from Pennsylvania.
“They are literally treating him like he is some sort of political fodder, like some sort of spectacle,” Agnifilo said in court. “He was on display for everyone to see in the biggest stage perp walk I’ve ever seen in my career, it was absolutely unnecessary. He’s been cooperative with law enforcement…There was no reason for the NYPD and everybody to have these big assault rifles.”
“It was perfectly choreographed, and what was the New York City Mayor doing at this press conference, your honor? That just made it utterly political,” she continued.