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Trump and allies have primed supporters to falsely believe he has no chance of losing
Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures during a campaign rally in Pittsburgh, Pa., on Monday, the night before Election Day.
Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images
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Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images
For more 2024 election coverage from the NPR Network head to our live updates page.
It’s possible former President Donald Trump will win the election — and also quite possible he loses. But many in Trump’s orbit keep falsely telling his supporters the only way that happens is because of cheating.

Polling indicates a competitive race in seven battleground states that will decide if Trump or Vice President Harris is the next president, states where voters’ political and demographic makeups mean there are no guaranteed winners.
Trump still insists he did not lose the 2020 election, despite numerous recounts and court cases that did not find evidence of fraud. His 2024 campaign is built on that foundation, telling his supporters the only way to “Make America Great Again” in a second term is to vote so that his victory could be “too big to rig.”
A large part of Trump’s closing message in recent weeks has focused on attacking any outcome other than victory as tainted, illegitimate and fraudulent, with no proof or basis in reality.

He has regularly questioned the legality of Harris’ role as the Democratic presidential nominee, calling President Biden’s decision to end his reelection bid and her subsequent selection under Democratic Party rules a “coup.”
After his supporters launched a failed insurrection attempt at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump has still refused to say if he would accept the results of this election, win or lose.
Eric Trump and his wife, Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump high-five during a rally for former President Donald Trump in Reading, Pa., on Monday.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
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Alongside the Republican National Committee, led by his daughter-in-law Lara Trump, Trump’s legal team has planted the seeds to cry foul in several key states if he loses, like Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, filing numerous lawsuits seeking to disqualify voters and ballots or demand rule changes they say suppress Republican voters.
The final days of the campaign have seen a barrage of baseless claims about voting rules, possible election outcomes and Trump’s chances to win from a constellation of his family, friends and faithful associates.
Social media site X has been home to a proliferation of false fraud claims about the election, and the site’s owner, billionaire Elon Musk, has used his considerable platform to amplify conspiracy theories about ballot counting and other normal election procedures while misleadingly sharing early voting data to claim a “decisive Republican victory.”
On Monday, Trump’s son Donald Trump, Jr. riled up a partially empty arena in North Carolina by urging people to show up to vote en masse so “you don’t give [Democrats] a week to find that magical truck of ballots.”
Trump himself has posted online that “Pennsylvania is cheating” and often dedicates parts of his rambling rallies to accusing his opponents of cheating while bragging about often-overinflated poll numbers.
In Pittsburgh Monday night at his penultimate presidential campaign rally, Trump said he has been given “about a 96.2% chance” of winning Tuesday, of which there is no evidence.
Many factors go into a Trump loss — or win
Polling, election analysts and math suggests Trump does not have a 96.2% chance of winning enough states to be the Electoral College winner. The reason the race is instead very close is not fraud, but rather several potential warning signs with his third presidential campaign and voters’ reaction to it.
In several of the swing states, there are lingering effects from the public and private pressure campaign he exerted to get Republican lawmakers and officials to overturn his 2020 defeat. The 2022 midterms saw several high-profile Trump-backed candidates who embraced the false fraud claims falter in what otherwise should have been a good year for Republicans.

His feuds with Republicans who defended the election results led to a notable loss of support among independent voters and conservatives who oppose his candidacy.
Efforts the RNC undertook to make inroads with nonwhite voters in the last election cycle have been abandoned in favor of beefed-up election integrity teams. As a result, much of the get-out-the-vote operation has been outsourced to inexperienced third parties.
After the Supreme Court overturned the longstanding Roe v. Wade decision that guaranteed a national right to obtain abortion care, Republicans have lost ground with women, especially in states that have passed strict abortion bans in the aftermath of that decision.
In many states, Trump’s plea for Republicans to “bank your vote” and participate in early voting appears to have paid off, but election data also shows a sizable share of those voters shifted from Election Day. That could potentially lead to lower Republican turnout Tuesday as part of an overall shift in voter behavior since the pandemic-era 2020 presidential race.
All of these factors could lead to a Trump loss when all the votes are counted, or be footnotes if he wins, but none of them involve the widespread voter fraud he has primed his supporters to be ready for, without cause.
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Trump was listed as a passenger on eight flights on Epstein’s private jet, according to emailpublished at 11:58 GMT
Anthony Reuben
BBC Verify senior journalist
One of the Epstein documents, external is an email saying that “Donald Trump traveled on Epstein’s private jet many more times than previously has been reported (or that we were aware)”.
The email was sent on 7 January 2020 and is part of an email chain which includes the subject heading ‘RE: Epstein flight records’.
The sender and recipient are redacted but at the bottom of the email is a signature for an assistant US attorney in the Southern District of New York – with the name redacted.
The email states: “He is listed as a passenger on at least eight flights between 1993 and 1996, including at least four flights on which Maxwell was also present. He is listed as having traveled with, among others and at various times, Marla Maples, his daughter Tiffany, and his son Eric”.
“On one flight in 1993, he and Epstein are the only two listed passengers; on another, the only three passengers are Epstein, Trump, and then-20-year-old” – with the person’s name redacted.
It goes on: “On two other flights, two of the passengers, respectively, were women who would be possible witnesses in a Maxwell case”.
In 2022, Ghislaine Maxwell was sentenced to 20 years in prison, external for crimes including conspiracy to entice minors to travel to engage in illegal sex acts and sex trafficking of a minor.
Trump was a friend of Epstein’s for years, but the president has said they fell out in about 2004, years before Epstein was first arrested. Trump has consistently denied any wrongdoing in relation to Epstein and his presence on the flights does not indicate wrongdoing.
We have contacted the White House for a response to this particular file.
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‘Music makes everything better’: A Texas doctor spins vinyl to give patients relief
Dr. Tyler Jorgensen sets “A Charlie Brown Christmas” on a record player at Dell Seton Medical Center in Austin Texas. He uses vinyl records as a form of music therapy for palliative care patients.
Lorianne Willett/KUT News
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Lorianne Willett/KUT News
AUSTIN, TEXAS — Lying in her bed at Dell Seton Medical Center at the University of Texas at Austin, 64-year-old Pamela Mansfield sways her feet to the rhythm of George Jones’ “She Thinks I Still Care.” Mansfield is still recovering much of her mobility after a recent neck surgery, but she finds a way to move to the music floating from a record player that was wheeled into her room.
“Seems to be the worst part is the stiffness in my ankles and the no feeling in the hands,” she says. “But music makes everything better.”
The record player is courtesy of the ATX-VINyL program, a project dreamed up by Dr. Tyler Jorgensen to bring music to the bedside of patients dealing with difficult diagnoses and treatments. He collaborates with a team of volunteers who wheel the player on a cart to patients’ rooms, along with a selection of records in their favorite genres.
“I think of this record player as a time machine,” he said. “You know, something starts spinning — an old, familiar song on a record player — and now you’re back at home, you’re out of the hospital, you’re with your family, you’re with your loved ones.”
Daniela Vargas, a volunteer for the ATX-VINyL program, wheels a record player to the hospital room of a palliative care patient in Austin, Texas.
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The healing power of Country music… and Thin Lizzy
Mansfield wanted to hear country music: Willie Nelson, Merle Haggard, George Jones. That genre reminds her of listening to records with her parents, who helped form her taste in music. Almost as soon as the first record spins, she starts cracking jokes.
“I have great taste in music. Men, on the other hand … ehhh. I think my picker’s broken,” she says.
Other patients ask for jazz, R&B or holiday records.
The man who gave Jorgensen the idea for ATX-VINyL loved classic rock. That was around three years ago, when Jorgensen, a long-time emergency medicine physician, began a fellowship in palliative care — a specialty aimed at improving quality of life for people with serious conditions, including terminal illnesses.
Shortly after he began the fellowship, he says he struggled to connect with a particular patient.
“I couldn’t draw this man out, and I felt like he was really struggling and suffering,” Jorgensen said.
He had the idea to try playing the patient some music.
He went with “The Boys Are Back in Town,” by the 1970s Irish rock group Thin Lizzy, and saw an immediate change in the patient.
“He was telling me old stories about his life. He was getting more honest and vulnerable about the health challenges he was facing,” Jorgensen said. “And it just struck me that all this time I’ve been practicing medicine, there’s such a powerful tool that is almost universal to the human experience, which is music, and I’ve never tapped into it.”
Dr. Tyler Jorgensen plays vinyl records as a form of music therapy for palliative care patients in Austin, Texas. Willie Nelson’s albums are a perennial hit.
Lorianne Willett/KUT News
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Lorianne Willett/KUT News
Creating new memories
Jorgensen realized records could lift the spirits of patients dealing with heavy circumstances in hospital spaces that are often aesthetically bare. And he thought vinyl would offer a more personal touch than streaming a digital track through a smartphone or speaker.
“There’s just something inherently warm about the friction of a record — the pops, the scratches,” he said. “It sort of resonates through the wooden record player, and it just feels different.”
Since then, he has built up a collection of 60 records and counting at the hospital. The most-requested album, by a landslide, is Fleetwood Mac’s Rumours from 1977. Willie is also popular, along with Etta James and John Denver. And around the holidays, the Vince Guaraldi Trio’s A Charlie Brown Christmas gets a lot of spins.
These days, it’s often a volunteer who rolls the record player from room to room after consulting nursing staff about patients and family members who are struggling and could use a visit.
Daniela Vargas, the UT Austin pre-med undergraduate who heads up the volunteer cohort, became passionate about music therapy years ago when she and her sister began playing violin for isolated patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. She said she sees similar benefits when she curates a collection of records for a patient today.
“We are usually not in the room for the entire time, so it’s a more intimate experience for the patient or family, but being able to interact with the patient in the beginning and at the end can be really transformative,” Vargas said.
Often, the palliative care patients visited by ATX-VINyL are near the end of life.
Jorgensen feels that the record player provides an interruption of the heaviness those patients and their families are experiencing. Suddenly, it’s possible to create a new, positive shared experience at a profoundly difficult time.
“Now you’re sort of looking at it together and thinking, ‘What are we going to do with this thing? Let’s play something for Mom, let’s play something for Dad.’” he said. “And you are creating a new, positive, shared experience in the setting of something that can otherwise be very sad, very heavy.”
Other patients, like Pamela Mansfield, are working painstakingly toward recovery.
She has had six neck surgeries since April, when she had a serious fall. But on the day she listened to the George Jones album, she had a small victory to celebrate: She stood up for three minutes, a record since her most recent surgery.
With the record spinning, she couldn’t help but think about the victories she’s still pursuing.
“It’s motivating,” she said. “Me and my broom could dance really well to some of this stuff.”
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