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The ‘kingmakers’ set to prop up Narendra Modi’s new government

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The ‘kingmakers’ set to prop up Narendra Modi’s new government

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Narendra Modi will be sworn in for his third term as Indian prime minister this weekend, but how long he remains in office could be decided by two regional politicians suddenly thrust into the national spotlight by this week’s shock general election result.

The support of N Chandrababu Naidu, chief minister-elect of the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, and Nitish Kumar, chief minister of Bihar in the north, is likely to be vital to Modi after his Bharatiya Janata party lost its outright majority in India’s lower house of parliament.

Naidu and Kumar lead the largest parties after the BJP in Modi’s National Democratic Alliance, which the prime minister now needs to stay in power, and Indian commentators are already calling them “kingmakers”.

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“It’s a game-changer,” said N Ram, a director of the group that publishes The Hindu newspaper, of the election result. “With the BJP short of reaching a single-party majority, it means that Modi is now crucially dependent on these two.”

The BJP won 240 seats, well below the 272 needed to control the lower house. Altogether, the NDA secured 293 seats, but if Naidu, whose Telugu Desam party took 16 seats, and Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) which has 12, were to both jump ship, the alliance’s majority would be lost.

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It makes for a transformed political scene in which Modi, who previously ruled almost unchallenged, will be subject to the vagaries and risks of coalition politics.

Analysts describe Kumar, who has switched sides between India’s two main political camps before, as a wily political operator. In 2023 he was one of the founders of the opposition INDIA alliance, but pulled out and joined Modi’s NDA earlier this year. 

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As chief minister of one of India’s poorest states, he held a caste census — a concession to the more than half of Indians from lower caste or tribal backgrounds that he has said could be a model for the nation.

The INDIA alliance made conducting such a census part of its election campaign, but Modi denounced the idea as part of a “hidden agenda” to divide Hindus and give their wealth and benefits to Muslims.

Now Indian media are speculating that INDIA might seek to lure Kumar back into its fold.

Naidu, who has also switched political allegiances in the past, is a business-friendly politician credited with helping to turn the southern city of Hyderabad into a tech hub in the 1990s. He has previously criticised the prime minister, telling an interviewer in 2019 that “all leaders are better than Narendra Modi”.

“If Naidu were to pull out for some reason, then the government would be close to collapse,” said Ashutosh Varshney, professor of international studies at Brown University. “But it won’t happen quickly.” 

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On Wednesday both Naidu and Kumar lined up behind Modi, joining an official NDA declaration of support for the new government and posing for a group photo with their fingers raised in a victory salute.

In an indication of the new power dynamic in New Delhi, Naidu flanked the prime minister on his left with Kumar the next along. Readers of India’s political tea leaves quickly noted that powerful home affairs minister Amit Shah stood three spots away from Modi, with many speculating that he could lose his portfolio. 

Narendra Modi with NDA party leaders on Wednesday. N Chandrababu Naidu stands directly on the prime minister’s left, with Nitesh Kumar next to Naidu.
Narendra Modi with NDA party leaders on Wednesday. N Chandrababu Naidu stands directly on the prime minister’s left, with Nitish Kumar next to Naidu. © Prime Minister’s Office/AP

Unlike many other democracies where coalition agreements can take weeks or even months to clinch, India has a tradition of forming governments quickly, appointing ministers only after the swearing in. Analysts say this is to reduce the risk of politicians being lured to switch sides, a practice known in India as “horse-trading”.

India’s colourful, volatile and sometimes vicious regional politics rarely draw international attention, but after this week’s shock election result banks, brokerages and consultancies have rushed to advise clients on the nitty gritty of Modi’s coalition.

Radhika Rao, senior economist at Singapore’s DBS Bank, wrote in a note on Wednesday that Naidu and Kumar’s parties would “hold considerable sway in the upcoming alliance discussions”.

Indian media have traded speculation about which ministries and parliamentary posts their parties might claim.

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Vijay Kumar Neelayapalem, a spokesman for Telugu Desam, said it was “up to the prime minister” how many ministerial slots each party got. A spokesperson for Janata Dal did not respond to requests for comment.

The order in which members of Modi’s new cabinet are sworn in on Saturday may offer hints of who is in line for senior roles. Analysts said the new power of the BJP’s junior partners would be likely to not only change Modi’s cabinet, but his style of governing too.

“Naidu and Nitish [Kumar] are going to demand a lot,” said Ram of The Hindu. “I think you will see a reinvented Modi.”

Additional reporting by Chris Kay in Mumbai

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After 2 failed votes, Mike Johnson unveils new plan to extend key U.S. spy powers

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After 2 failed votes, Mike Johnson unveils new plan to extend key U.S. spy powers

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., takes questions at a news conference at the Capitol on Tuesday.

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Speaker Mike Johnson, R.-La., is forging ahead with his latest proposal to renew a key American spy power. His bill, revealed Thursday, is largely unchanged from a previous plan which failed in a series of overnight votes earlier this month.

The program at center of the debate, Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), is set to expire on April 30.

FISA 702 allows U.S. intelligence agencies to intercept the electronic communications of foreign nationals located outside of the United States. Some of the nearly 350,000 foreign targets whose communications are collected under the provision are in touch with Americans, whose calls, texts and emails could end up in the trove of information available to the federal government for review.

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For almost two decades, privacy-minded lawmakers from both parties have sought to require specific court approval before federal law enforcement can conduct a targeted review of an American’s information gathered through the program. The lack of any such warrant requirement helped sink an effort last week to extend the program for 18 months, as well as a separate vote on a five-year renewal. 

Trump officials, like those in past administrations, have argued that such a warrant requirement would overburden law enforcement and endanger national security. Johnson’s latest proposal would reauthorize the program for three years, but does not include a warrant requirement. Instead, the bill calls for the FBI to submit monthly explanations for reviews of Americans’ information to an oversight official as well as criminal penalties for willful abuse, among other tweaks.

“I am willing to risk the giving up of my Rights and Privileges as a Citizen for our Great Military and Country,” the president wrote on Truth Social last week, advocating for the program to be extended without changes. “I have spoken with many in our Military who say FISA is necessary in order to protect our Troops overseas, as well as our people here at home, from the threat of Foreign Terror Attacks. It has already prevented MANY such Attacks, and it is very important that it remain in full force and effect.”

Glenn Gerstell, who served as general counsel at the National Security Agency during the Obama and first Trump administration, says Johnson’s reforms look like an attempt to find a middle ground.

“There’s not a lot of really substantive changes to the statute, but some gestures are made to people who are worried about privacy and civil liberties,” Gerstell said. “It seems like a pretty reasonable compromise that is going to be satisfactory to the national security agencies and yet at the same time represents some gesture to the privacy advocates.”

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“This is not a reform bill and it’s not a compromise,” Elizabeth Goitein, a privacy advocate and senior director of the Liberty and National Security Program at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University, wrote on X. “It’s a straight reauthorization with eight pages of words that serve no serious purpose other than to try to convince members that it’s NOT a straight reauthorization.”

A bipartisan reform deal is still out of reach

Connecticut Rep. Jim Himes, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence committee, told NPR on Wednesday, before the release of Johnson’s new proposal, that lawmakers were working on a bipartisan solution. He said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., was in touch with Johnson on the issue.

“There’s a lot of work being done here,” Himes said. “We’re sort of working out a process that will be inclusive rather than exclusive.” Himes said he was negotiating with Rep. Jamie Raskin, a Maryland Democrat and constitutional law scholar, on a reform proposal they hoped could preserve and reform the program — reauthorizing it with bipartisan support.

But Johnson’s new bill appears to fall short of the inclusive approach Himes hoped for.

NPR obtained a memo written by Raskin to his colleagues urging them to oppose the bill, which he said “continues the disastrous policy of trusting the FBI to self-police and self-report its abuses of Section 702 and backdoor searches of Americans’ data.”

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“FBI agents can still collect, search, and review Americans’ communications without any review from a judge,” Raskin wrote.

FBI agents must receive annual training on FISA and are generally barred from searching for information about people in the U.S. if the goal of the search is to investigate general criminal activity, rather than find foreign intelligence information, and those searches need approval from a supervisor or an attorney. 

Republican hardliners — who sunk Johnson’s last reauthorization attempt — also don’t all appear to be on board for Johnson’s latest revision. Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, a past chair of the Freedom Caucus, said “we’re not there yet” in a video he shared to X on Thursday.

“I didn’t take an oath to defend FISA, I didn’t take an oath to defend the intelligence community,” Perry said. “We can’t have them spying on American citizens and, when they do, there has to be accountability and I haven’t seen any that I’m satisfied with yet.”

The House Rules committee meets Monday morning, the first step toward advancing the renewal bill toward a vote.

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Trump Says Israel and Lebanon Agree to Extend Cease-Fire by Three Weeks

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Trump Says Israel and Lebanon Agree to Extend Cease-Fire by Three Weeks

President Trump announced a three-week extension of a cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon that had been set to expire in a few days, after hosting a meeting between Israeli and Lebanese diplomats at the White House on Thursday.

Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group that has been attacking Israel from southern Lebanon, did not have representatives at the meeting and did not immediately comment on the announcement. The prime minister of Israel and the president of Lebanon also did not comment.

A successful peace agreement would hinge upon Hezbollah halting attacks, which Lebanon’s government has little power to enforce because it does not control the militia. Lebanon’s military has mostly stayed out of the fighting and is not at war with Israel.

The cease-fire, which was scheduled to end on April 26, would last until May 17 if it takes effect as Mr. Trump described it. Before the cease-fire was brokered last week, nearly 2,300 people were killed in Lebanon and 13 in Israel. Since then, the number of Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah attacks have been dramatically reduced, though the two sides have continued exchanging fire.

The Lebanese Ambassador to the United States, Nada Hamadeh, credited Mr. Trump for extending the cease-fire, saying that “with your help and support, we can make Lebanon great again.” Mr. Trump replied, “I like that phrase, it’s a good phrase.”

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Asked about the potential of a lasting peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon, Mr. Trump said that “I think there’s a great chance. They are friends about the same things and they are enemies on the same things.”

But Lebanon and Israel have periodically been at war since Israel’s founding in 1948. Israel has invaded Lebanon for the fifth time since 1978, incursions that have destabilized the country and the delicate balance of power between Muslim, Christian and Druze communities.

In the hours before the president’s announcement on social media, Israel and Hezbollah were trading attacks in southern Lebanon, testing the existing cease-fire.

Mr. Trump said the meeting at the White House had been attended by high-ranking U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the U.S. ambassadors to Israel and Lebanon.

Earlier on Thursday, an Israeli strike near the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh killed three people, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. Hezbollah claimed three separate attacks on Israeli troops who are occupying southern Lebanon, though none were wounded or killed.

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Hezbollah set off the latest round of fighting last month by attacking Israel soon after the start of the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign in Iran. Israel responded to Hezbollah’s attacks by launching airstrikes across Lebanon and widening a ground invasion of the country’s south.

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U.S. soldier charged with suspected Polymarket insider trading over Maduro raid

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U.S. soldier charged with suspected Polymarket insider trading over Maduro raid

Smoke rises from Port of La Guaira in Venezuela on Jan. 3, 2026 after U.S. forces seized the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro and his wife.

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Federal prosecutors on Thursday unsealed an indictment against a U.S. Army soldier, accusing him of using his insider knowledge of the clandestine military operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January to reap more than $400,000 in profits on the popular prediction market site Polymarket.

The Justice Department says Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, who was stationed at Fort Bragg, in North Carolina, was part of the team that planned and carried out the predawn raid in Caracas earlier this year that resulted in the apprehension of Maduro.

The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed the actions against Van Dyke, the first time U.S. officials have leveled criminal charges against someone over prediction market wagers.

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According to the indictment, Van Dyke now faces counts of wire fraud, commodities fraud, misusing non-public government information and other charges.

Trading under numerous usernames including “Burdensome-Mix,” Van Dyke allegedly traded about $32,000 on the arrest of Maduro, resulting in profits exceeding $400,000.

“Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain,” said U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton for the Southern District of New York. “Those entrusted to safeguard our nation’s secrets have a duty to protect them and our armed service members, and not to use that information for personal financial gain.”

Van Dyke’s defense lawyer is not yet publicly known. Polymarket did not return a request for comment.

The charges against Van Dyke come at a sensitive time for the prediction market industry, which has been growing exponentially, despite calls in Washington and among state leaders for the sites to be reined in.

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Van Dyke is the first to be charged in the U.S. for suspected Polymarket insider trading, but Israeli authorities in February arrested several people and charged two on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military operations in Iran on Polymarket.

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