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Super Tuesday and UK Budget, Israel-Hamas war passes milestone

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Super Tuesday and UK Budget, Israel-Hamas war passes milestone

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

US presidential election primary season reaches a peak this week, as delegates in 15 states vote for Republican and Democrat candidates on Super Tuesday. Will this be the moment when Nikki Haley stands down? You can get the latest polling data and news by subscribing to the excellent new US Election Countdown newsletter, delivered to your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday by clicking here. If you want more beamed to your digital device, sign up to the US election channel on WhatsApp.

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Another key question for Tuesday’s polling day is how much the unrest in the Hamas-Israel conflict — which passes its 150th day of fighting this week — will affect the Democrat vote for President Joe Biden. As my colleagues on the ground, Lauren Fedor and James Politi, note, the backlash over Gaza has also thrust foreign policy into the heart of the race for the White House. Hopes last week of a ceasefire deal ahead of the start of Ramadan this coming Sunday — or for that matter Biden’s State of the Union address on Thursday — have fizzled. Can Biden resurrect talks to end the fighting?

Wednesday is the Spring Budget, a prominent entry in the UK news diary and a classic piece of British political theatre for the rest of us. Star of the show will be chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who delivers his speech to parliament, outlining future tax and spending plans, at 12:30pm London time. The pressure is on for Hunt because it is likely to be the last big set-piece fiscal event for the Conservative government ahead of the general election. Expect tax giveaways. Click here for comprehensive FT updates on the day.

Talking of big political set pieces, they don’t come much bigger (in attendance numbers at least) than China’s National People’s Congress, which holds its annual session starting on Tuesday. Thousands of delegates will be descending on Beijing to be told, among other things, the country’s new growth projections for the year ahead. The pressure is on President Xi Jinping to introduce stronger measures to revive the world’s second-largest economy to previous levels of expansion, especially after lacklustre figures for factory output released last week.

Talking of economics, we have a lot of central bankers giving speeches this week, continuing 2024’s ongoing debate on when interest rates can fall. Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell will on Thursday update Congress on monetary policy, while across the Atlantic European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde will reveal the latest interest rate decision.

After a quiet start to the week for earnings, the results calls will pick up during the coming few days with insurance a strong theme in the UK as Aviva, Legal & General, Hiscox and Royal London report figures.

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The week ends with voting again, this time for Portugal’s parliamentary election, which has been made a whole lot more interesting by the entrance of a far-right former football pundit.

One more thing . . . 

Or should I say, and the winner is . . . Prepare yourself for Oscars night next Sunday. This is not the only awards show in the diary, however. The Moules household will instead be following the other gala ceremony marked by ego clashes, tearful failures and big audience figures: yes, I’m talking about the Crufts dog show, which opens in Birmingham on Thursday.

A playful chocolate Labrador puppy arrived as the first Moules family pet a few weeks ago and I am therefore now in awe of anyone who can train any canine to the standard of Best in Show.

Your dog-rearing tips, as well as comments about your priorities for the next seven days, will be gratefully received. Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from you inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

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Monday

  • Samir Shah begins a four-year tenure as the chair of the BBC, taking over from acting chair Dame Elan Closs Stephens who stepped in following Richard Sharp’s resignation in April 2023

  • Results: Clarksons FY, GlobalData FY

Tuesday

  • Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at FIN/SUM event in Tokyo

  • US Federal Reserve board vice-chair Michael Barr speaks at the National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference in Portland, Oregon

  • British technology company Nothing launches its Phone (2a) smartphone in London

  • China, EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/Caixin/HCOB February services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

  • South Korea: preliminary Q4 GDP figures (AM local time)

  • UK: HM Treasury publishes data on official holdings of international reserves. Also, BRC-KPMG February Retail Sales Monitor.

  • US: February factory orders data

  • Results: Ashtead Q3, Bakkavor FY, Bayer FY, Brembo FY, Foxtons FY, Fresnillo FY, Greggs FY, Hiscox FY, Inchcape FY, IWG FY, Johnson Service Group FY, Keller FY, Reach FY, Ross Stores Q4, SIG FY, STV Group FY, Target Corp Q4, Thales FY, TKH Group FY, Travis Perkins FY

Wednesday

  • Australia: Q4 GDP figures

  • Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate decision

  • Germany: February trade balance figures

  • South Korea: February consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data (AM local time)

  • UK: S&P Global February construction PMI data

  • US: Federal Reserve Beige Book

  • Results: AIB Group FY, Breedon FY, Brown-Forman Q3, Campbell Soup Company Q2, Capita FY, CLS Holdings FY, ConvaTec FY, DS Smith Q3 trading update, Galliford Try HY, Ibstock FY, Legal & General FY, Netcall HY, Nichols FY, Quilter FY, Rathbones FY, Ricardo HY, Spirent Communications FY, Tullow Oil FY

Thursday

  • European Commission deadline date for Big Tech companies designated as gatekeepers — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, ByteDance, Meta and Microsoft — to ensure full compliance with the Digital Markets Act obligations for each of their designated core platform services

  • EU: European Central Bank interest rate announcement

  • UK: February Halifax House Price Index

  • US: Federal Reserve Board chair Jay Powell presents the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs hearing in Washington

  • Results: Admiral Group FY, Aviva FY, Beazley FY, Broadcom Q1, Brooks Macdonald HY, Costco Wholesale Q2, Darktrace FY, Elementis FY, Entain FY, Funding Circle FY, Grafton FY, ITV FY, Kier HY, Kroger Q4, Lufthansa FY, Melrose Industries FY, PageGroup FY, Rentokil Initial FY, Robert Walters FY, TT Electronics FY, Vivendi FY

Friday

  • Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler speaks at the Investment Adviser Compliance Conference in Washington

  • Canada: February unemployment rate

  • EU: revised Q4 GDP figures and Q4 eurozone employment data

  • Germany: February industrial production data

  • Japan: trade balance data (AM local time)

  • US: February employment report

  • Results: Informa FY, Royal London FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

  • 150th day of Hamas-Israel conflict in Gaza

  • Australia: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hosts a special summit in Melbourne with leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to commemorate 50 years of dialogue between Australia and Asean

  • UK: 200th anniversary of the Royal National Lifeboat Institution

  • US: North Dakota Republican party presidential caucus

Tuesday

  • China: National People’s Congress annual session for the country’s top legislature opens in Beijing

  • Czech Republic: French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Prague

  • Russia: 71st anniversary of Joseph Stalin’s death. Communists traditionally lay flowers at the site of the Soviet leader’s grave in the Kremlin walls

  • US: Super Tuesday for the presidential primary elections, with voting taking place in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia and the Alaska Republican party.

Wednesday

  • Belize: municipal elections

  • EU: the European People’s party, the centre-right grouping ahead in polls for June’s EU elections, begins its congress in Bucharest, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen due to be named as its candidate

  • UK: Spring Budget speech by chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Linked to this, the Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its economic forecast. Click here for full coverage from the FT

  • US: Ryan Salame, a former senior lieutenant to FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, is due to be sentenced after pleading guilty to two conspiracy counts last September

Thursday

  • UK: Crufts, featuring 24,000 dogs competing for the title of Best in Show, begins in Birmingham. The overall winner will be announced on Sunday

  • US: President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress in Washington

Friday

  • International Women’s Day

  • Ghana: 13th African Games begin across three cities, Accra, Kumasi and Cape Coast

  • Ireland: referendums on changing the country’s constitution on family and care.

  • US: latest deadline for a new funding deal to avert a partial government shutdown

Saturday

Sunday

  • Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins

  • Deadline, given by Israel, for Hamas to free all hostages in Gaza

  • Portugal: general election

  • UK: Mothering Sunday

  • US: 96th Academy Awards (the Oscars) ceremony in Hollywood. Also, Daylight Saving time begins, with clocks going forward one hour.

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Trump’s Vision for D.C. ‘Garden of Heroes’ Statues Grows in Size and Cost

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Trump’s Vision for D.C. ‘Garden of Heroes’ Statues Grows in Size and Cost

President Trump’s vision for his National Garden of American Heroes is growing larger and most likely more expensive than his initial estimates, with the latest plans calling for reflecting pools, dining facilities and an amphitheater alongside 250 life-size statues of notable Americans.

The plans have expanded to the point that they could require significant redevelopment of West Potomac Park, an area of mostly sports fields near the National Mall, according to documents obtained by The New York Times. The statues alone could cost more than the $40 million approved for the project by Congress, according to the Trump administration’s estimate.

Based on the latest renderings, the Garden of Heroes could rank among the more expensive and time-consuming projects Mr. Trump has undertaken as he works to remake the nation’s capital in his own style.

Construction has yet to begin, raising questions about whether Mr. Trump will run out of time — and money — to deliver on his ambitions before the end of his second term. If Mr. Trump were to solicit donor funds, as he has done with his ballroom project, it could renew ethical concerns about attempts to court favor with the White House.

The latest drawings depict a “Heroes Walk,” connecting themed areas dedicated to categories of American figures, including politicians, soldiers, scientists, activists, artists and athletes. The set of honorees is eclectic: George Washington, Ronald Reagan and Amelia Earhart are on a list circulated by the administration, along with Elvis Presley, Kobe Bryant, Alfred Hitchcock, Dr. Seuss and others.

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Accompanying the statues would be formal gardens, reflecting pools and plazas arranged in a style reminiscent of classical European planning traditions, according to renderings reviewed by The Times. The Trump administration has yet to settle on a final plan or submit it to any oversight board.

One of the most prominent features in the plans would be a large amphitheater carved into the landscape at the water’s edge, suggesting the space is intended to function both as a performance venue and as a ceremonial gathering place.

The plans also include cafes and open recreational spaces.

“President Trump’s National Garden of American Heroes will be built to reflect the awesome splendor of our country’s timeless exceptionalism,” said Davis Ingle, a White House spokesman. “President Trump continues to beautify and honor our nation’s capital during America’s historic semiquincentennial celebration.”

Proposed in his first term, Mr. Trump initially hoped to have the project completed by July 4 of this year, the 250th anniversary of American independence. But administration officials are now hoping to have a few dozen statues ready to unveil in time, with the remainder of the project to be completed by the end of Mr. Trump’s term.

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Mr. Trump first proposed a Garden of Heroes during his first term, at a time of widespread protesting over the murder of George Floyd in police custody. Protesters had toppled statues of Confederate generals and leaders, and in some instances vandalized monuments to national icons like George Washington and Abraham Lincoln.

Mr. Trump denounced those actions as attempts to “erase our values” and he signed an executive order authorizing the monument garden. The election of Joseph R. Biden Jr. as president interrupted those plans, but since Mr. Trump took office for a second time, he has taken the project up again in earnest.

Paul M. Farber, the director of Monument Lab, a nonprofit public art, history and design studio based in Philadelphia, noted that the description of the historical figures being honored portrays a sanitized version of American history.

Mr. Trump’s executive order detailed most of the figures to be featured with statues, and a White House task force overseeing festivities for the country’s 250th anniversary also published a list, with biographies of those selected.

The description of Martin Luther King Jr., for instance, praises the civil rights leader for having a “can-do” spirit, but makes no direct mention of the racism that he fought.

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“To not name the injustice that made people ‘significant Americans’ is a sanitizing of the history,” Mr. Farber said. “Whether it’s Ida B. Wells-Barnett or Frederick Douglass, when you look at the fine print, you understand the Faustian bargain here, which is representation at the cost of real history.”

Under the “journalists” category, there are two honorees: Edward R. Murrow of CBS, and Alex Trebek, who hosted the game show “Jeopardy!”

The National Endowment for the Humanities has solicited “preliminary concepts” for individual statues from artists who must be American citizens. Mr. Trump has directed that subjects be depicted in a “realistic” manner, with no modernist or abstract designs allowed.

Artists who are selected will receive awards of up to $200,000 per statue, which must be made of marble, granite, bronze, copper or brass. (That price is a relative bargain. Outdoor public sculptures can cost roughly $1 million each to produce in cities like New York.)

Still — even if the statues cost $200,000 each, for a total of $50 million — there is not enough money appropriated by Congress to pay for them. And then there is the matter of the redevelopment of the land, the reflecting pools and all the rest in the latest plan.

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Since the start of his second term, Mr. Trump has embarked on what he has characterized as an effort to beautify the nation’s capital. He has run into hurdles.

The president is in the midst of a legal battle over whether he can unilaterally build a $400 million ballroom at the White House with donor funds, after he abruptly demolished the historic East Wing. He is also in court fighting to close the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, which he has renamed the Trump-Kennedy Center, for a major renovation. He has proposed building a 250-foot triumphal arch near Washington’s border with Arlington, Va. Next to his proposed garden is a golf course that Mr. Trump wants to make into a luxury destination.

His plans for the Garden of Heroes have yet to go before any review panel.

Should Mr. Trump leave office without finishing his signature projects, the next administration would be faced with choices about whether to finish them or abandon them.

It’s an issue other countries have faced as well, said Ken Lum, a sculptor, professor and Chair of Fine Arts at the University of Pennsylvania Stuart Weitzman School of Design.

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“I don’t think it’s like the Sagrada Familia in Barcelona, where it was this great project of Gaudi and people said, ‘No, we must finish this,’” Mr. Lum said. “I think there’s going to be a lot of debate in terms of, ‘We don’t need to finish this. Maybe we should even take it down.’”

Mr. Trump has tapped several people closely associated with the National Civic Art Society, a nonprofit that endorses traditional styles of architecture, to oversee the Garden of Heroes, according to three people close to the project.

The garden would most likely need to overcome some legal hurdles, including the possible need for exemption under the Commemorative Works Act, which restricts what can be built around some federal lands in Washington. The site’s proximity to the Potomac also could introduce concerns about ecological disruption.

Mr. Trump appears to have left himself room to make five last-minute nominations; there are only 245 people on a list the administration distributed. The White House did not reply to questions about whom he would choose to fill extra slots.

In an interview with The New York Times in January, Mr. Trump described his plans for the Garden of Heroes as “beautiful.”

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“That’s going to be most likely right on the Potomac River,” he said, adding: “It’s going to be a beautiful complex. You’re going to have the hall of — you know, it’s — we’ll call it a hall. We call it a lot of things, but the memorials or statues are going to — it’s going to be beautiful.”

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Can Trump’s latest pick for surgeon general make it through confirmation?

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Can Trump’s latest pick for surgeon general make it through confirmation?

Nicole Saphier, President Trump’s nominee for surgeon general.

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President Trump has nominated Dr. Nicole Saphier, a radiologist and former Fox News Channel contributor, for the role of surgeon general. It’s his third pick for this position, often called “the nation’s doctor,” responsible for promoting health and wellness to the general public in the United States.

Saphier is expected to be more acceptable to Republican lawmakers, than Dr. Casey Means, Trump’s previous choice. His first pick, Dr. Janette Nesheiwat, was withdrawn following scrutiny over how she had represented her medical credentials.

Trump described Saphier, who directs breast imaging at Memorial Sloan Kettering Monmouth, as a “STAR physician” and an “INCREDIBLE COMMUNICATOR” in his April 30 nomination post on Truth Social.

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The same day, Trump blamed Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., a physician, for having “stood in the way” of Means getting confirmed as surgeon general. He accused Cassidy of “intransigence and political games.”

Saphier will be facing scrutiny from the same committee members who were doubtful of Means.

Means told Politico that Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, also opposed her nomination, effectively tanking her confirmation.

All three Republican lawmakers serve on the influential Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee, which Cassidy chairs. The committee holds confirmation hearings for nominated health officials and determines whether to advance them to a full Senate vote.

In response, the Republican members of the Senate HELP Committee wrote, “It’s clear she did not have the votes,” in a post on X.

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Does Saphier have a better chance than Means?

While a confirmation hearing has not been scheduled yet, Saphier can expect many questions about her qualifications, views on vaccines and other topics she’s publicly addressed.

David Mansdoerfer, former deputy assistant secretary of health at the Department of Health and Human Services in the first Trump administration, says she likely faces a warm reception from Republicans, saying she’s “extremely strong on some of the core base issues.”

“[She’s great on] the pro-life issue, on chronic disease and prevention. She speaks a lot to the MAHA influence, especially to the suburban moms,” he says, referring to the Make American Healthy Again movement, an interest group that Republicans are trying to win in the midterm elections.

In addition to being a practicing physician, Saphier is also a health influencer and former medical contributor to Fox News from 2018 to this week, a Fox News spokesperson confirmed. She currently sells herbal supplement drops that promote “focus” and “calm” and hosts a podcast called Wellness Unmasked on iHeartRadio. In 2020, she published a book titled Make America Healthy Again — years before the phrase coalesced into a movement led by current Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Saphier is a clear contrast from Means in some key respects. She is an active licensed physician — which Means wasn’t — practicing at a top academic medical center. These credentials make her a “reasonable choice” for surgeon general, says Dr. Georges Benjamin, CEO of the American Public Health Association.

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Benjamin had described Trump’s previous pick, Means, to NPR as “less qualified professionally than any other surgeon general in history.”

In February, Saphier addressed Means’ nomination on her podcast, saying the surgeon general’s main role is public health messaging, and for that they need to be “a trusted messenger.”

“They need the respect of not only …the American people that they are communicating to, but they also need the respect of the administration, which they are working together with,” she said, “And also the [respect of] medical professionals, the medical organizations.” In Saphier’s opinion at the time, that’s where Means was falling short.

Dr. Jerome Adams, who served as the 20th surgeon general in the first Trump administration, said in an interview with NPR’s Morning Edition that he expects Saphier to get the respect of the medical community, along with the public and the Administration.

But Saphier’s focus on individual care is just one piece of public health, Adams says. “She tends to see things through a diagnosis and treatment lens because that’s what cancer docs do. It’s clear when you look at the book she wrote that she does not think of things through a public health and societal lens.”

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For instance, “she talks about personal responsibility a lot, but you can’t eat healthy if you are having your SNAP benefits cut or if the cost of groceries is going through the roof because of inflation. The broader societal context actually matters,” he says.

Still Adams wrote on X, “Overall, this is a solid pick. I believe she’ll be confirmed and that she has both the clinical background and the temperament to do a good job.”

Views on vaccines and other credentials

The Trump administration has been trying to pivot away from the focus on vaccines ahead of the midterm elections. Secretary Kennedy’s attempts to make sweeping changes to the vaccine schedule have polled poorly with voters, and been blocked by court challenges from leading U.S. health groups.

Still, the topic will likely be front and center in an upcoming confirmation hearing for the role of surgeon general.

Saphier’s views on the topic are not completely aligned with Kennedy. She criticized his attempts to link vaccines with autism in an op-ed last year in the Wall Street Journal. “When it comes to autism, we can’t afford to chase ghosts,” she wrote, advocating for more research into genetic and environmental causes.

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But she disagrees with some public health recommendations on the childhood vaccine schedule. While vaccines “really can save lives,” Saphier said in a February 2025 Fox News Digital video, “I do think that the CDC and the American Academy of Pediatrics need to be less stringent on these schedules,” she said, specifically mentioning the hepatitis B and COVID-19 vaccines for children.

Based on what Saphier has said publicly, “she’s been opposed to vaccine mandates, but she’s not anti-vaccine,” says Benjamin from APHA.

At her confirmation hearing in February, former surgeon general pick Dr. Casey Means articulated a similar position, which served as a sticking point for some senators.

Role of surgeon general

Getting confirmed in this role is high stakes, says Dr. Richard Carmona, who served as the 17th surgeon general in the George W. Bush administration. Of all the competencies required for the role, political affiliation or experience as a television commentator are not high on his list.

The job is “to protect, promote and advance the health, safety and security of the nation” and to represent the U.S. government when disasters and public health emergencies strike in the U.S. and abroad, he says.

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The surgeon general commands the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps, one of the eight uniformed services of the United States, with thousands of members that have earned their ranks in a career of service, Carmona says. The surgeon general’s rank is three-star vice admiral.

For this role, Carmona would prioritize experience in leadership and public health. The surgeon general should have “the credibility to sit at the table with foreign ministers and carry the message of the United States and work with our allies.”

As surgeon general, Carmona fielded questions from lawmakers and the media about a wide range of public health topics, from cancer to emergency preparedness for biological and nuclear hazards.

For someone being considered for the role, “I want to know that you have expertise in public health besides clinical medicine,” he says, “Have you dealt with vaccination issues? Have you dealt with clean water and sanitation? How about air pollution? … That’s what a surgeon general does.”

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U.S. to Withdraw 5,000 Troops From Germany, Pentagon Says

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U.S. to Withdraw 5,000 Troops From Germany, Pentagon Says

Pentagon officials said on Friday that they were pulling 5,000 troops from Germany and would redeploy them to the United States and other posts overseas.

The Defense Department is also canceling a plan developed under the Biden administration to place a missile-equipped artillery unit in Europe.

The moves will return U.S. forces in Europe to the level they were in 2022, before Russia began its war in Ukraine, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the planning process. Last year, the Pentagon redeployed a brigade in Romania and did not send replacement forces.

Sean Parnell, a Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement that the withdrawal would be completed over the next six to 12 months.

“This decision follows a thorough review of the department’s force posture in Europe and is in recognition of theater requirements and conditions on the ground,” he said.

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The Defense Department — particularly during both of President Trump’s terms — has for several years considered decreasing the military presence in Germany. But senior defense officials privately made it clear that they wanted the move to be seen as a punishment for Germany, whose recent comments about the U.S. war in Iran have annoyed Mr. Trump.

Earlier this week, Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said Iran had “humiliated” the United States, and he questioned how Mr. Trump planned to end the conflict.

“The Americans obviously have no strategy,” Mr. Merz said.

Mr. Trump then took to Truth Social, his social media site, to vent.

“The United States is studying and reviewing the possible reduction of Troops in Germany, with a determination to be made over the next short period of time,” he wrote on Thursday.

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Later, he added: “The Chancellor of Germany should spend more time on ending the war with Russia/Ukraine (Where he has been totally ineffective!), and fixing his broken Country, especially Immigration and Energy, and less time on interfering with those that are getting rid of the Iran Nuclear threat, thereby making the World, including Germany, a safer place!”

On Friday, while announcing the decision, a senior Pentagon official said that Germany’s failure to contribute to the Iran war effort had frustrated the United States, and that the country’s rhetoric was inappropriate and unhelpful.

The announcement, and the criticism of Germany, represents a shift for Pentagon officials, who recently had praised Germany’s efforts to increase military spending and take over more of the burden of supporting Ukraine.

Even if the Pentagon pulls 5,000 troops out of Germany, the country would still host the second-largest U.S. troop presence in the world, at more than 30,000, behind only Japan.

Defense officials say the United States depends on its bases in Germany to stage many of its operations in the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

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The Iran war has made that clear. Many U.S. troops evacuated from bases in the Middle East that were targeted by Iran were moved to Germany. And many of the U.S. troops wounded in the war have been taken to Germany — to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center near Ramstein Air Base — for treatment.

The U.S. military’s Africa Command and European Command are also headquartered in Germany.

Defense officials said the reduction would not directly affect Landstuhl or other medical facilities in Germany where U.S. troops receive care.

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