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Super Tuesday and UK Budget, Israel-Hamas war passes milestone

Published

2 years ago

March 3, 2024

Super Tuesday and UK Budget, Israel-Hamas war passes milestone

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

US presidential election primary season reaches a peak this week, as delegates in 15 states vote for Republican and Democrat candidates on Super Tuesday. Will this be the moment when Nikki Haley stands down? You can get the latest polling data and news by subscribing to the excellent new US Election Countdown newsletter, delivered to your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday by clicking here. If you want more beamed to your digital device, sign up to the US election channel on WhatsApp.

Another key question for Tuesday’s polling day is how much the unrest in the Hamas-Israel conflict — which passes its 150th day of fighting this week — will affect the Democrat vote for President Joe Biden. As my colleagues on the ground, Lauren Fedor and James Politi, note, the backlash over Gaza has also thrust foreign policy into the heart of the race for the White House. Hopes last week of a ceasefire deal ahead of the start of Ramadan this coming Sunday — or for that matter Biden’s State of the Union address on Thursday — have fizzled. Can Biden resurrect talks to end the fighting?

Wednesday is the Spring Budget, a prominent entry in the UK news diary and a classic piece of British political theatre for the rest of us. Star of the show will be chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who delivers his speech to parliament, outlining future tax and spending plans, at 12:30pm London time. The pressure is on for Hunt because it is likely to be the last big set-piece fiscal event for the Conservative government ahead of the general election. Expect tax giveaways. Click here for comprehensive FT updates on the day.

Talking of big political set pieces, they don’t come much bigger (in attendance numbers at least) than China’s National People’s Congress, which holds its annual session starting on Tuesday. Thousands of delegates will be descending on Beijing to be told, among other things, the country’s new growth projections for the year ahead. The pressure is on President Xi Jinping to introduce stronger measures to revive the world’s second-largest economy to previous levels of expansion, especially after lacklustre figures for factory output released last week.

Talking of economics, we have a lot of central bankers giving speeches this week, continuing 2024’s ongoing debate on when interest rates can fall. Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell will on Thursday update Congress on monetary policy, while across the Atlantic European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde will reveal the latest interest rate decision.

After a quiet start to the week for earnings, the results calls will pick up during the coming few days with insurance a strong theme in the UK as Aviva, Legal & General, Hiscox and Royal London report figures.

The week ends with voting again, this time for Portugal’s parliamentary election, which has been made a whole lot more interesting by the entrance of a far-right former football pundit.

One more thing . . .

Or should I say, and the winner is . . . Prepare yourself for Oscars night next Sunday. This is not the only awards show in the diary, however. The Moules household will instead be following the other gala ceremony marked by ego clashes, tearful failures and big audience figures: yes, I’m talking about the Crufts dog show, which opens in Birmingham on Thursday.

A playful chocolate Labrador puppy arrived as the first Moules family pet a few weeks ago and I am therefore now in awe of anyone who can train any canine to the standard of Best in Show.

Your dog-rearing tips, as well as comments about your priorities for the next seven days, will be gratefully received. Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from you inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

Samir Shah begins a four-year tenure as the chair of the BBC, taking over from acting chair Dame Elan Closs Stephens who stepped in following Richard Sharp’s resignation in April 2023
Results: Clarksons FY, GlobalData FY

Tuesday

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at FIN/SUM event in Tokyo
US Federal Reserve board vice-chair Michael Barr speaks at the National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference in Portland, Oregon
British technology company Nothing launches its Phone (2a) smartphone in London
China, EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/Caixin/HCOB February services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data
South Korea: preliminary Q4 GDP figures (AM local time)
UK: HM Treasury publishes data on official holdings of international reserves. Also, BRC-KPMG February Retail Sales Monitor.
US: February factory orders data
Results: Ashtead Q3, Bakkavor FY, Bayer FY, Brembo FY, Foxtons FY, Fresnillo FY, Greggs FY, Hiscox FY, Inchcape FY, IWG FY, Johnson Service Group FY, Keller FY, Reach FY, Ross Stores Q4, SIG FY, STV Group FY, Target Corp Q4, Thales FY, TKH Group FY, Travis Perkins FY

Wednesday

Australia: Q4 GDP figures
Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate decision
Germany: February trade balance figures
South Korea: February consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data (AM local time)
UK: S&P Global February construction PMI data
US: Federal Reserve Beige Book
Results: AIB Group FY, Breedon FY, Brown-Forman Q3, Campbell Soup Company Q2, Capita FY, CLS Holdings FY, ConvaTec FY, DS Smith Q3 trading update, Galliford Try HY, Ibstock FY, Legal & General FY, Netcall HY, Nichols FY, Quilter FY, Rathbones FY, Ricardo HY, Spirent Communications FY, Tullow Oil FY

Thursday

European Commission deadline date for Big Tech companies designated as gatekeepers — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, ByteDance, Meta and Microsoft — to ensure full compliance with the Digital Markets Act obligations for each of their designated core platform services
EU: European Central Bank interest rate announcement
UK: February Halifax House Price Index
US: Federal Reserve Board chair Jay Powell presents the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs hearing in Washington
Results: Admiral Group FY, Aviva FY, Beazley FY, Broadcom Q1, Brooks Macdonald HY, Costco Wholesale Q2, Darktrace FY, Elementis FY, Entain FY, Funding Circle FY, Grafton FY, ITV FY, Kier HY, Kroger Q4, Lufthansa FY, Melrose Industries FY, PageGroup FY, Rentokil Initial FY, Robert Walters FY, TT Electronics FY, Vivendi FY

Friday

Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler speaks at the Investment Adviser Compliance Conference in Washington
Canada: February unemployment rate
EU: revised Q4 GDP figures and Q4 eurozone employment data
Germany: February industrial production data
Japan: trade balance data (AM local time)
US: February employment report
Results: Informa FY, Royal London FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

150th day of Hamas-Israel conflict in Gaza
Australia: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hosts a special summit in Melbourne with leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to commemorate 50 years of dialogue between Australia and Asean
UK: 200th anniversary of the Royal National Lifeboat Institution
US: North Dakota Republican party presidential caucus

Tuesday

China: National People’s Congress annual session for the country’s top legislature opens in Beijing
Czech Republic: French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Prague
Russia: 71st anniversary of Joseph Stalin’s death. Communists traditionally lay flowers at the site of the Soviet leader’s grave in the Kremlin walls
US: Super Tuesday for the presidential primary elections, with voting taking place in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia and the Alaska Republican party.

Wednesday

Belize: municipal elections
EU: the European People’s party, the centre-right grouping ahead in polls for June’s EU elections, begins its congress in Bucharest, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen due to be named as its candidate
UK: Spring Budget speech by chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Linked to this, the Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its economic forecast. Click here for full coverage from the FT
US: Ryan Salame, a former senior lieutenant to FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, is due to be sentenced after pleading guilty to two conspiracy counts last September

Thursday

UK: Crufts, featuring 24,000 dogs competing for the title of Best in Show, begins in Birmingham. The overall winner will be announced on Sunday
US: President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress in Washington

Friday

International Women’s Day
Ghana: 13th African Games begin across three cities, Accra, Kumasi and Cape Coast
Ireland: referendums on changing the country’s constitution on family and care.
US: latest deadline for a new funding deal to avert a partial government shutdown

Saturday

Sunday

Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins
Deadline, given by Israel, for Hamas to free all hostages in Gaza
Portugal: general election
UK: Mothering Sunday
US: 96th Academy Awards (the Oscars) ceremony in Hollywood. Also, Daylight Saving time begins, with clocks going forward one hour.

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News

Map: 5.1-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes off the Coast of California

Published

4 hours ago

June 3, 2026

Press Room

Map: 5.1-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes off the Coast of California

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown. All times on the map are Pacific time. The New York Times

A moderately strong, 5.1-magnitude earthquake struck in the North Pacific Ocean on Wednesday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 5:45 a.m. Pacific time about 40 miles west of Petrolia, Calif., data from the agency shows.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

Aftershocks detected

Subsequent quakes have been reported in the same area. Such temblors are typically aftershocks caused by minor adjustments along the portion of a fault that slipped at the time of the initial earthquake.

Quakes and aftershocks within 100 miles

Aftershocks can occur days, weeks or even years after the first earthquake. These events can be of equal or larger magnitude to the initial earthquake, and they can continue to affect already damaged locations.

When quakes and aftershocks occurred

All times are Pacific time. The New York Times

Sources: United States Geological Survey (epicenter, aftershocks, shake intensity); LandScan via Oak Ridge National Laboratory (population density) | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Pacific time. Shake data is as of Wednesday, June 3 at 6:03 a.m. Pacific time. Aftershocks data is as of Wednesday, June 3 at 8:01 a.m. Pacific time.

News

California’s primary for governor is undecided as candidates vie to be in the top two

Published

6 hours ago

June 3, 2026

Press Room

California’s primary for governor is undecided as candidates vie to be in the top two

Xavier Becerra, Democratic gubernatorial candidate for California, and Steve Hilton, Republican gubernatorial candidate for California, shake hands while arriving for a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco in April.

Jason Henry/Getty Images North America

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Jason Henry/Getty Images North America

SAN FRANCISCO — The primary election for California governor is too close to call, with vote counting continuing Wednesday. Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican business executive Steve Hilton lead the field with Democrat Tom Steyer in third place.

In California’s unusual primary system, all candidates, regardless of party, appear on a single ballot open to any registered voter. The top two candidates then move on to the general election, even if they’re from the same party. This year, voters had 60 names for governor to choose from.

The winner will lead the country’s most populous state, where leaders often take on national political prominence. Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom is at his two-term limit and could be a Democratic contender for president.

Becerra, former Health and Human Services secretary under President Joe Biden, pitched himself to voters as an experienced political leader who isn’t afraid of President Trump, but his lead caps one of the most surprising and dramatic comebacks in recent state political history. As recently as April, polls were showing Becerra — also a former member of Congress and California attorney general — languishing in single digits in a crowded field.

In his remarks at his watch party in Los Angeles, Becerra noted his underdog status.

“Here in Hollywood’s hometown, we love a good underdog success story,” he said, drawing parallels between his campaign and his immigrant parents’ success story in California. “Guess what? The underdog stayed in the fight. Like my parents, I never gave up. Never stopped putting one foot in front of the other. Never stopped believing in the beacon-like goodness of California. And thankfully, neither did you.”

Hilton is a former Fox News commentator who also served as a political adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron. He was endorsed by President Trump in April, helping him to pull ahead of Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the other major Republican in the race. Hilton has campaigned on the idea that California needs change after 16 years under total Democratic control.

The race is narrowing down after a tumultuous campaign

At his watch party in Huntington Beach, the British-born candidate — who became an American citizen five years ago — said it was the “honor of his lifetime” to receive over 1 million votes so far.

“Change is coming to California and it’s long overdue,” Hilton said. “We’re not there yet, but it’s looking good. It looks very much as if Californians really will have the chance to vote for change in November and take our state in a new direction.”

Democratic billionaire activist Steyer spent more than $213 million of his own money to boost his candidacy and push a progressive, populist message. While he was trailing Becerra and Hilton on Tuesday night, he said at his watch party in San Francisco that he remains confident he can close the gap in the days ahead.

“Together, we’ve scared the hell out of the corporate interests used to getting their way,” Steyer said. “It might take some time to figure out where this is going. We’re going to wait until every ballot is counted. We’re gonna give democracy a time to work. And we know we finished really strong.”

The early results are not certain to hold, in part because of unusual voting patterns in this primary election: Ballot-tracking data heading into Tuesday evening showed that Republicans were more likely to vote early by mail, while Democratic voters in this deep-blue state held onto their mail-in ballots or chose to vote in person. That’s the reverse of recent elections, which saw more Democrats voting by mail and Republicans tending to vote in person on Election Day.

The uncertainty on election night capped a race that remained crowded and unsettled to the end. To some extent, the race was defined by who wasn’t running.

Some of the state’s most high-profile Democrats — former Vice President Kamala Harris, U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla and California Attorney General Rob Bonta — all passed on a potential bid to succeed Newsom.

The race was disrupted in April when then-U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell’s campaign for governor imploded amid allegations of sexual assault and harassment. Swalwell resigned from Congress shortly after the accusations surfaced and has denied assault allegations.

Swalwell had been gaining in polls and racking up high-profile endorsements, and his exit seemed to primarily benefit Becerra, who had been stuck in single digits in many polls. Ultimately, it quieted fears among Democrats who worried that the messy Democratic field could result in Bianco and Hilton winning the top spots in the June primary.

Marisa Lagos covers California politics at KQED and co-hosts the Political Breakdown show and podcast.

News

Supreme Court reinstates Republican-favored Alabama congressional districts

Published

17 hours ago

June 2, 2026

Press Room

Supreme Court reinstates Republican-favored Alabama congressional districts

The U.S. Supreme Court

Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

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Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

The Supreme Court on Tuesday cleared the way for Alabama to use a congressional district map favored by Republicans.

The court, in an unsigned order, overturned a three-judge district court panel that found that the map is “tainted by intentional race-based discrimination.” The court’s three liberals publicly dissented.

The ruling means that Alabama’s 2026 midterm elections will feature six Republican-leaning districts and one Democratic-leaning one, as opposed to a map with only five safe Republican seats. Democrat Shomari Figures, who represents Alabama’s Second District, will likely lose his seat as a result of the high court’s ruling.

The story of Alabama’s congressional map is long and tortured. It began in 2021, when the state implemented a new map to account for population changes in the census. The map featured only one majority-black district out of seven, even though the state is more than one-quarter Black.

Voters immediately sued, claiming the map illegally diluted minority votes in violation of the Voting Rights Act and the Constitution. Lower court judges agreed, ruling that the state must draw a map with two districts where Black voters have a realistic chance of electing their candidate of choice. The Supreme Court more than once has ordered Alabama to draw a compliant map.

But the state has refused and instead continued to litigate the case. On Tuesday, that tactic paid off.

What changed? In April, the Supreme Court’s conservative supermajority all but gutted what remains of the Voting Rights Act, ruling that states cannot purposefully draw districts that are majority-minority.

Alabama then asked the high court to reinstate the state’s old map, under the theory that this new ruling meant that it was permissible to use a map with only one majority-Black district. In an unsigned, unexplained order in May, the high court essentially reversed its previous opinions, and allowed Alabama to use the old map for the upcoming midterm elections.

This set off a flurry of activity in Alabama. By the time the Supreme Court issued its May order, absentee balloting had already begun, using the court-drawn map. So Republican Governor Kay Ivey cancelled elections and scheduled a special primary for August for the affected congressional races.

The case, however, was not over.

In its ruling, the Supreme Court had ordered a lower court panel to continue evaluating Alabama’s map in light of its recent Voting Rights Act decision. And just 15 days after that order, the panel, composed of three Republican judges—two of them Trump appointees—concluded unanimously that even under the Supreme Court’s new standards, the plan for a single black district was “intentionally discriminatory.”

So, once again, Alabama returned to the Supreme Court, arguing that the map was partisan, not racially discriminatory. In short, that the Republican legislature simply drew the map to elect more Republicans. And that under the Supreme Court’s new interpretation of the Voting Rights Act, the GOP map should be allowed to stand.

The court’s conservative agreed, writing that the lower court “did not heed the presumption of legislative good faith.”

The court’s three liberals publicly dissented, castigating the conservative majority for failing to abide by its 2006 decision in the case of Purcell v. Gonzalez. That decision declared that courts should not change election rules too close to an election.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor, in her dissent, said the court “debases the democratic process” and “corrodes the rule of law by rewarding Alabama’s gamesmanship and outright defiance of court orders.”

Tuesday’s decision is the latest in a series of Supreme Court rulings that could well reshape the 2026 midterm elections, making it much harder for Democrats to prevail.