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Spy Agencies Cite Russia’s Setbacks but Say Putin Is ‘Unlikely to Be Deterred’

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Spy Agencies Cite Russia’s Setbacks but Say Putin Is ‘Unlikely to Be Deterred’

WASHINGTON — High U.S. intelligence officers mentioned on Tuesday that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had been stunned and unsettled by the issues which have hampered his navy in Ukraine, points that can make it tougher for Russian forces to manage the nation.

However Mr. Putin is set to achieve Ukraine, and can attempt to double down and use ever extra brutal techniques, the officers mentioned throughout an look earlier than the Home Intelligence Committee.

America’s intelligence businesses, which earlier than the assault launched data on Russia’s troop buildup and battle plans, will work to spotlight Russian atrocities and crimes, a continuation of the data battle that helped rally the West to impose robust sanctions on Ukraine, the officers mentioned.

Earlier than the invasion, Mr. Putin thought the battle can be comparatively fast, permitting him to quickly seize Kyiv and overwhelm Ukrainian forces, Avril D. Haines, the director of nationwide intelligence, advised lawmakers.

“Moscow underestimated the energy of Ukraine’s resistance and the diploma of inner navy challenges we’re observing, which embrace an ill-constructed plan, morale points and appreciable logistical points,” Ms. Haines mentioned.

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Controlling all of Ukraine will necessitate much more forces than Russia has dedicated to the struggle, she mentioned.

Some allied intelligence companies imagine that Mr. Putin’s early navy issues may trigger him to readjust his plans to take management of the entire nation, and cease his advance after he captures Kyiv, significantly if navy officers spotlight what number of further forces it should require to safe Ukraine.

However diplomats are additionally fast so as to add that they aren’t certain how rationally Mr. Putin is viewing the scenario. On the listening to, Ms. Haines mentioned Mr. Putin appeared intent on intensifying his marketing campaign, regardless of his navy’s logistical issues.

“Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks,” Ms. Haines mentioned, “and as an alternative could escalate, primarily doubling down to realize Ukrainian disarmament, neutrality, to forestall it from additional integrating with the U.S. and NATO.”

Given the issues the Russian navy has confronted, and the rising will of Ukraine to struggle, intelligence officers predicted the battle would intensify. William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, is anticipating an “ugly subsequent few weeks.”

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“I feel Putin is offended and pissed off proper now,” Mr. Burns mentioned. He’s more likely to “attempt to grind down the Ukrainian navy with no regard for civilian casualties,” he added.

Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier, the director of the Protection Intelligence Company, mentioned there was a restrict to how lengthy Kyiv may maintain on as Russian forces encircled Ukraine and tightened the vise. “With provides being reduce off, it should turn out to be considerably determined in, I might say, 10 days to 2 weeks,” Common Berrier mentioned.

Different estimates are comparable. Some allied governments imagine Russia will end encircling Kyiv in every week and, given the energy of Ukraine’s resistance, the town could possibly maintain out for an additional month, a European diplomat mentioned on Tuesday.

Whereas the intelligence chiefs mentioned Mr. Putin felt aggrieved, Mr. Burns mentioned it will be incorrect to view his actions as loopy.

The Russian chief’s rising isolation and insulation from conflicting views make him “extraordinarily troublesome to cope with,” Mr. Burns mentioned. With out aides prepared to push again, Mr. Putin entered the battle misunderstanding the desire of Ukraine to struggle again and the West to take motion.

Germany, for instance, suspended the Nord Stream 2 pipeline mission, which might have allowed imported Russian pure fuel to bypass Ukraine; despatched weapons on to Ukraine; and expanded its protection funds.

“He’s been unsettled by Western response and allied resolve, significantly among the selections that the German authorities has taken,” Mr. Burns mentioned. “I feel he’s been unsettled by the efficiency of his personal navy.”

Common Berrier mentioned he had low confidence in experiences of Russian casualties, however put Moscow’s losses at 2,000 to 4,000.

Mr. Burns mentioned the American authorities was maintaining an in depth eye on Mr. Putin’s home assist. With state-controlled media dominating what the Russian public hears and impartial reporting on the invasion primarily being made unlawful, it should take time for Russians to “take up the results” of Mr. Putin’s actions.

However, over time, funerals of Russian troopers killed in Ukraine will have an effect, Mr. Burns mentioned.

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“You additionally see, in comparatively small numbers, a variety of very brave Russians out on the road protesting,” Mr. Burns mentioned. “One thing like 13 or 14,000 have been arrested since then, which isn’t a small factor in a deeply repressive society like Russia.”

Different governments mentioned one other essential issue is whether or not Mr. Putin’s assist throughout the navy erodes. Earlier than the invasion, Russian officers complained concerning the plan, in line with intercepts obtained by Western intelligence. The discontent with the Kremlin’s planning now continues, the European diplomat mentioned.

The intelligence group will develop its data battle with Russia, working to show Moscow’s battle crimes and atrocities in Ukraine, Ms. Haines mentioned. American spy businesses have been working with different businesses to doc Russian actions in Ukraine, together with battle crimes, and to carry the perpetrators accountable.

“Russian forces are on the very least working with reckless disregard for the security of noncombatants, as Russian models launch artillery and airstrikes into city areas as they’ve accomplished in cities throughout Ukraine,” Ms. Haines mentioned.

Such an data marketing campaign to show Russia’s assaults on civilians and different missteps would construct on the intelligence launched earlier than the invasion, which sought to show Russia’s battle plans, rally allied assist for robust monetary sanctions and deny Moscow the possibility to create a false pretext for an assault.

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Gen. Paul M. Nakasone, the director of the Nationwide Safety Company, mentioned that america had carefully tracked three or 4 Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine, and that bolstered Ukrainian defenses had helped blunt wider Russian cyberattacks.

“By way of why they haven’t accomplished extra, I feel that’s clearly among the work that the Ukrainians have accomplished, among the challenges that the Russians have encountered and among the work that others have been capable of do to forestall their actions,” Common Nakasone mentioned.

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Trump holds rally with Elon Musk at site of assassination attempt

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Trump holds rally with Elon Musk at site of assassination attempt

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Donald Trump was joined on stage by billionaire backer Elon Musk for a rally in the Pennsylvania town where he survived an assassination attempt, as the neck-and-neck US election campaign heads into its final month.

Musk, the Tesla founder who has donated to a super Pac associated with the Republican campaign, leapt on to the stage to urge voters to support Trump, repeating the candidate’s claim that the November vote was the “most important election of our lifetime”.

“The true test of someone’s character is how they behave under fire and we had one president who couldn’t climb a flight of stairs, and another who was fist-pumping after getting shot: ‘Fight, fight, fight’,” said Musk, in his first appearance alongside the former president.

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Musk claimed the Democrats were a threat to the American constitution, adding that if Trump did not win it would be the “last election”.

He said the Democrats wanted “to take away your freedom of speech, they want to take away your right to bear arms, they want to take away your right to vote, effectively.”

In an hour and half-long speech, Trump said that his return to Butler, where a shot from a would-be assassin almost killed him, showed that the gunman “did not break our spirit”.

“I return to Butler in the aftermath of tragedy and heartache to deliver a simple message to the people of Pennsylvania and to the people of America — our movement to make America great again stands stronger, prouder, more united, more determined and nearer to victory than ever before,” said Trump.

But since his first appearance in Butler, vice-president Kamala Harris has replaced Biden and the polls have narrowed. Harris leads Trump in the popular vote and the races in the seven swing states are practically a dead heat, according to an FT analysis of FiveThirtyEight polling data. Pennsylvania is the closest of all races, with Harris leading Trump by just an average of 0.6 percentage points.

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“Over the past eight years, those who want to stop us from achieving this future have slandered me, impeached me, indicted me, tried to throw me off the ballot, and, who knows, maybe even tried to kill me,” Trump told the crowd. “But I’ve never stopped fighting for you, and I never will.”

Tens of thousands of supporters, many of whom had been present at the July event, in which a Trump supporter was killed and two others were injured, gathered in Butler from the morning of the rally. They chanted “Fight, fight, fight” — the words proclaimed on stage by Trump in the moments after the shooting.

In front of the firefighter’s uniform belonging to Corey Comperatore, the supporter who was killed that day, Trump deployed his typical rhetoric, making overblown claims about immigration and crime rates, promising to allow fracking, a key industry in Pennsylvania, and repeating false assertions that the 2020 election was stolen. Comperatore’s family, Trump’s running mate JD Vance, and hedge fund billionaire John Paulson also attended the rally.

Trump also deployed his newest attack line against Harris — that she had bungled the response to tropical storm Helene.

Helene was a “Katrina for them”, he said, adding that “they say it’s the worst job ever done in helping people through the ravages of a hurricane” and falsely claiming that the only help the administration was offering those affected was a $750 emergency payment.

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The candidates have been criss-crossing the country as the election race reaches its apogee. On Saturday, Harris visited North Carolina for an update on recovery efforts for tropical storm Helene, which has devastated the south-east of the US, leaving at least 223 dead at the latest count.

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Hollywood declares state of emergency due to flooding ahead of heavy rain and Tropical Storm Milton

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Hollywood declares state of emergency due to flooding ahead of heavy rain and Tropical Storm Milton

Hollywood declares state of emergency ahead of heavy rain

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Hollywood declares state of emergency ahead of heavy rain

02:14

FORT LAUDERDALE — As South Florida expects periods of heavy rain on Sunday and Tropical Storm Milton strengthens, some areas are already seeing flooding, especially Broward County.

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The City of Hollywood has declared a state of emergency ahead of Sunday’s conditions and people are bracing for severe weather. With more rain and Milton heading toward Florida, people are nervous.

On Saturday morning, CBS News Miami saw Hollywood residents waking up to floodwaters and trying to navigate through it. Hollywood Police announced street closures due to the weather, mainly in the area of Sheridan Street.

With morning rain causing the flooding, residents are worried about the coming days.

“I live completely on the other end and I tried in that way and I couldn’t, so I’m hoping it dissipates so I can at least get home,” said Debbie Andersen.

“I already got all my stuff ready to go,” added Michael Sloan. “I got sandbags in a little wagon ready — waiting to be pulled in the place. I got my wall units already, [and] screws put in place. So, all I got to do is put them up and I’m sealed.”

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The police is urging people driving in these conditions to slow down, stay focused and increase the distance between themselves and the car in front of them.

🚨 **Weather Alert: Stay Safe, Hollywood!** 🌧️

We’re expecting some heavy rain in the coming days. Please be extra…

Posted by Hollywood Police Department on Saturday, October 5, 2024

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Lebanon says 50 medics killed in past three days as Israel extends its bombardment

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Lebanon says 50 medics killed in past three days as Israel extends its bombardment

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Lebanese authorities said Israel’s bombardment had killed 50 health workers in the past three days as Israeli fighter jets continued to launch strikes across the Arab state.

The Israeli military said on Saturday its forces had struck a mosque in southern Lebanon adjacent to a hospital, which it said was being used by Hizbollah fighters as a command centre, while its forces battled the militant group’s fighters in the border region.

A Hizbollah-affiliated hospital in southern Lebanon, The Martyr Salah Ghandour, said it was hit by a strike shortly after the Israeli military issued orders that it be evacuated, according to a statement on Lebanon’s state news agency on Saturday. It said nine staff were injured in the attack on Friday in the town of Bint Jbeil.

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A spokesperson from the Lebanese health ministry told the Financial Times on Saturday that 50 medics had been killed in the past 72 hours.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO’s director-general, said that the capacity of Lebanon’s health system was deteriorating and that the UN agency’s “medical supplies cannot be delivered due to the almost complete closure of Beirut’s airport”.

“WHO calls on urgent facilitation of flights to deliver health supplies to Lebanon. Lives depend on it!” he said on X.

Israel has issued multiple evacuation orders in recent days, warning people in towns and villages across the south to move north. It has given similar orders during its war against Hamas in Gaza ahead of big offensives.

Iranian-backed Hizbollah said there were clashes with Israeli troops around the Lebanese border town of Odeisseh. The official Lebanese news agency reported shelling of Odeisseh and three other southern villages.

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Israel has intensified its assault against Hizbollah over the past two weeks as it has shifted its focus from Gaza to the northern front. It has killed Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, launched air strikes across Lebanon and sent troops into Lebanon’s south for the first time in almost two decades.

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The escalation has heightened fears about all-out war in the Middle East. The region is bracing for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s response to an Iranian missile barrage fired at Israel on Tuesday.

Tehran said the missile attack was in response to the assassination of Nasrallah and the killing of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.

Israel struck the southern suburbs of Beirut on Saturday afternoon targeting the Borj al-Barajna Palestinian refugee camp with four missiles, according to the Lebanese state news agency. Hizbollah said Israel bombed a convention centre in the southern neighbourhood of Dahiyeh overnight. The group used the complex to host events.

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Almost 2,000 people have been killed in Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon in the past year, according Lebanese authorities, after Hizbollah started firing missiles at Israel in support of Hamas in Gaza. The majority were killed in the past two weeks, Lebanon’s health minister said.

More than 1.2mn people have been displaced, triggering one of the worst crises for the country in decades.

Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, met Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on Saturday, a day after visiting Beirut.

Israel “speaks no other language than war and coercion and continues its crimes in Beirut, southern Lebanon and Gaza on a daily basis,” Araghchi said. He added that he would continue discussions on ceasefire initiatives in Lebanon and Gaza with Syrian officials.

This week there have been indications that Israel has expanded its offensive to include Hizbollah’s civil infrastructure, while also targeting the group’s leaders.

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The movement is Lebanon’s dominant political force and has a huge network of social programmes and business interests. On Thursday, Israel struck a Hizbollah-linked medical facility in the heart of Beirut, killing at least nine people, including health workers, as well as a building used by the group’s media relations team in the southern suburbs.

The strike on a Palestinian refugee camp in the northern city of Tripoli killed Saeed Atallah Ali, a commander of its Qassam Brigades and his family in the early hours of Saturday, Hamas said. A second Hamas leader, Mohammed Hussein al-Louise, was killed in an air raid in the Bekaa Valley.

In northern Israel, air raid sirens sounded as Hizbollah launched rocket barrages. The Israel Defense Forces said the militant group shot 222 projectiles at Israel on Friday.

It said it had killed 250 Hizbollah fighters, including four battalion commanders, since the start of the ground offensive in Lebanon this week.

Nine Israeli soldiers have been killed in clashes with Hizbollah in southern Lebanon as the fighting intensified.

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Joe Biden has urged Israel to make a “proportional” response to Iran’s missile strikes, and to avoid targeting Iranian nuclear sites or oil infrastructure. But the president has also made it clear that the US supported Israel’s military riposte.

“The Israelis have every right to respond to the vicious attacks on them, not just on the Iranians but on everyone from Hizbollah to the Houthis,” Biden said.

Additional reporting by Bita Ghaffari in Tehran

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