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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world

Donald Trump’s win gave Republicans their highest share of the popular vote in two decades — and revealed big shifts in the US electorate, from the Democratic party’s reliance on wealthier, college-educated voters to the power of issues like immigration.

Low turnout by Democrats also hurt Kamala Harris’s chances while support from traditional left-leaning voting groups, such as Hispanic and Black voters, fell.

The results also show that poorer and less-educated voters now think Republicans best represent them — a reversal from 12 years ago, when Democrat Barack Obama was president.

After a deep-dive into the data, here are five takeaways.

Democratic support depends on high-income voters

Economic realignment has been under way for some time, but hastened in this election. The Democratic party now appears to be the party of high-income voters, not those with low incomes.

For the first time in decades, Democrats received more support from Americans in the top third of the income bracket than from poorer groups, according to an FT analysis of voter surveys.

In contrast to 2020, the majority of lower-income households or those earning less than $50,000 a year voted for Trump this election. Conversely, those making over $100,000 voted for Harris, according to exit polls.

At the same time, Trump enjoyed enduring support from voters without a college degree, with nearly two-thirds voting for the former president, according to exit polling in ten states by NBC News.

Immigration probably pushed voters to Trump

A poll by Gallup before the election found that US voters saw immigration as the most important problem facing the country, with 55 per cent saying that it was a “critical threat” to the US.

The results from Tuesday show just how damaging the issue was for Harris, who was blamed by Trump for the record high number of border crossings during the Biden administration.

Some of the areas that swung furthest to the former president were on the US south-western border, including Hidalgo and Zapata counties in Texas and Santa Cruz County in Arizona.

In Texas, Trump managed to flip four counties on the US-Mexico border that had voted for Democratic presidential candidates since the 1970s.

Trump captured the suburbs and cities became less Democratic

Joe Biden’s victory over Trump in 2020 owed much to the big Democratic turnout in swing-state suburbs, including a blue wave in the majority-white suburbs of Pennsylvania and Georgia, as well as both majority-white and majority-Latino areas in Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona.

But on Tuesday, Trump captured more votes than Harris everywhere outside large cities, including suburban areas. In large urban areas, Democrats lost more than 1mn votes compared to 2020, according to an FT analysis of the results.

The rural-urban divide has increasingly become an entrenched dimension of US politics, but this election saw a sharp drop in Democratic support in large cities, while rural areas continued to become more red.

Hispanic-majority areas swung to Trump

Days before the election, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s disparaging remarks about Puerto Rico at a Trump rally cast doubt on the Republican candidate’s ability to win over Latino voters.

But the results showed that Latinos, as well as other non-white voters, are increasingly drawn to Trump. The shift could have lasting implications given Latinos are among the fastest-growing ethnic groups in the US.

Even in liberal enclaves like Philadelphia, the most populous city in the swing state of Pennsylvania, voters swung towards Trump in majority-Hispanic areas, even while Harris won those precincts overall, according to an FT analysis of municipal data.

In Texas, some of the largest swings towards Trump also came from majority-Hispanic counties, including Starr County on the US-Mexico border, which has a Hispanic population of over 96 per cent.

Trump even managed to flip Florida’s most populous county, the majority-Hispanic Miami-Dade County, for the first time since 1988.

Low turnout among Democrats accentuated the swing towards Trump

Not all of the swing towards Trump across the country was attributable to an increase in support for the Republican.

While New York swung to Trump by 12 points in 2024, fewer than 190,000 additional people voted for him than in 2020. But 800,000 fewer people voted for Harris than Biden in the state. Illinois and Ohio followed a similar trend.

Of the swing states, only in Pennsylvania did Democrats lose more votes than Trump gained. In Wisconsin, Georgia and North Carolina, the party increased their vote count — albeit only by 300 in the North Carolina.

Harris’s turnout effort did bear some fruit, with current estimates showing that the proportion of the voting-eligible population who voted increased in all but two of the swing states.

Additional reporting by Radhika Rukmangadhan in New York and Alan Smith in London

A record number of women will serve as state governors next year — building on the historic gains made during the 2022 elections.

The new record came after Republican Kelly Ayotte, a former U.S. senator and state attorney general, won the New Hampshire governor’s race on Tuesday, defeating Democrat Joyce Craig in what was considered this year’s most competitive gubernatorial election.

Ayotte’s victory will bring the total number of women holding state governor’s offices to 13 — surpassing the previous high of 12 set after elections in 2022. Before that, the highest number of women serving as governors was nine, a record established in 2004.

“We’re both celebrating the milestones that women have achieved, but at the same time, as we note those milestones, we also have to recognize that there is a lot of progress left to make for women,” said Kelly Dittmar, director of research at Rutgers University’s Center for American Women and Politics.

“And that is especially true at the gubernatorial level,” she added.

Governors, in particular, play a major role in shaping state policies that often can have a more immediate and direct impact on their citizens than federal policies. When women are elected into office, it tends to promote more trust in government and better perceptions around fairness, Dittmar said. “Because it holds up to that standard of being representative,” she said. “That’s the message.”

Dittmar added that while women in office are far from monolithic in their positions or priorities, they have historically been the force behind raising issues and policy agendas around caregiving, women’s inclusion in medical trials, and concerns about the treatment of women in the military.

Seeing women in office also sends a positive message to young women about what’s possible for them in the future. “And for young men, will they see that and hold less biases about who can and should be in elected leadership?” Dittmar said.

Next year, Ayotte will join the group of female governors already in office: Kay Ivey of Alabama; Katie Hobbs of Arizona; Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas; Kim Reynolds of Iowa; Laura Kelly of Kansas; Janet Mills of Maine; Maura Healey of Massachusetts; Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan; Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico; Kathy Hochul of New York; Tina Kotek of Oregon; and Kristi Noem of South Dakota. Including Ayotte, five are Republicans and eight are Democrats.

In the U.S. territories, Lou Leon Guerrero, a Democrat, has been serving as Guam’s governor since 2019. This past week, Republican Jenniffer González-Colón won Puerto Rico’s governor’s race.

Still, 18 states have never elected a female chief executive: California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

This year was not a major election cycle for governors, with only 11 states holding elections. Among them, only four included women as leading contenders. Female candidates in Missouri, Indiana, and Vermont — all of whom were Democrats — lost to male opponents.

It also coincides with Vice President Harris’ unsuccessful bid to become the first female commander-in-chief. Many Democrats say sexism was a factor in Harris’ loss.

Had Harris won the presidency, Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan would have taken over as governor for vice presidential candidate Tim Walz — and would have become the first Indigenous woman to serve as governor in the U.S.

Yahay Obeid, who arrived in the US from Yemen aged 8, trained as a pilot, and now controls air traffic at JFK airport, is more than just a model American immigrant.

At the height of the first administration of Donald Trump, he was held up in a speech by his Democratic representative, the Bronx’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, as a victim of the “Muslim ban”, the government shutdown, and the “anti-immigration sentiment” flowing from the White House.

But on Tuesday, Obeid and probably thousands of fellow members of the Muslim community in the Bronx — which contains both the poorest and bluest Congressional districts in the US — voted for Trump, as did many of the area’s Hispanic and Latino inhabitants.

“What we have done right now is hold the Democrats accountable,” said Obeid of the borough’s 65,000 new Trump voters, who the Republican candidate targeted with a pledge to fight inflation and illegal immigration. “They have taken our vote for granted.”

In a swing that shook the Democratic establishment in New York City, Kamala Harris won just 73 per cent of the vote in the Bronx — 10 percentage points lower than Joe Biden achieved in 2020. Voting patterns across the borough, where more than 70 per cent of registered voters are Democrats, suggest the party shed support among communities that once formed its core base.

For many in the Bronx, which has the worst public health record in the state, the calculation was, “how much worse can it get?”, said former firefighter Mike Rendino, chair of the Bronx Republican party. “At some point they realised Democratic policies no longer worked.”

Rubén Díaz Sr, a former state senator and registered Democrat who introduced Trump at a rally in Crotona Park in May and spent the past few weeks driving around the Bronx in a truck campaigning for the Republicans, said the backlash against his own party was long coming.

“We Hispanics, we are not liberal, we are conservatives”, the ordained minister said. Even among a community of first and second generation immigrants, illegal migration “was one of the main issues”, he added.

Díaz said there was anger at measures such as the debit cards handed out by the city administration to migrant families to purchase food.

While the Bronx, which has been governed by Democrats for decades, suffers from high rates of homicide and violent crime, the Republican stronghold of Staten Island “has the better security, the better street cleaning, the better services”, Diaz added.

Even before Trump’s re-election bid, a slight shift towards the Republicans was in the offing. Last year, the Bronx voted in its first Republican on the city council in 40 years.

Although the Republican party itself did not spend money campaigning in the Bronx, Trump sought to capitalise on his growing support in the borough, visiting once for his rally, and once to film a Fox & Friends segment in a local barbershop, during which he told patrons: “You guys are the same as me.” He was the first Republican presidential candidate to campaign in the Bronx since Ronald Reagan, who went on to win New York.

Conversely, Harris and the Democrats forgot that people in the Bronx were “just like any other any regular American”, according to Sammy Ravelo, who came to America from the Dominican Republic in his teens and went on to serve in the US Army and as a New York police officer. “They know their pocketbook, how much they are paying for eggs.”

A local Democratic politician’s exhortation that Trump would imperil social security payments was taken as an insult by some, Ravelo added, for the implication that their community was reliant on government handouts. “The Dominican community is not a monolith,” he said.

Far from being put off by Trump’s pledge to implement mass deportations of illegal immigrants, a small but growing number of Dominicans welcomed the tough stance, Ravelo claimed. “You know who wants mass deportation most?” Ravelo, who was one of the first responders during the September 11 attacks, asked. “Legal migrants.”

A shopkeeper in the Morris Park neighbourhood of the Bronx, who asked not to be named, said she had agreed with Republicans on cultural issues such as their opposition to “Proposition 1”, a proposed amendment to New York’s constitution that conservatives claimed would allow transgender children to play on girls’ sports teams, which passed on Tuesday night.

Trump’s courting of the Bronx vote had its hiccups. At an October rally in Manhattan, a comedian sparked outrage by referring to Puerto Rico as a “floating pile of garbage”.

“Trump should have fired whoever allowed that person to go on,” said the Republican party’s Rendino, who thought that he lost significant support in the borough as a result.

But attempts by Democrats to talk up the threat posed by Trump to democracy itself increasingly fell on deaf ears, said Obeid, especially among his Yemeni community, whose elders strongly endorsed the Republican candidate just days before the election.

“We grew up in dictatorships, you can’t fool us by calling someone who is outspoken a dictator,” he said. Instead, with what he saw as a tacit endorsement of the “genocide” unfolding in Gaza, “we felt the world would end under Biden”.

In response to Trump’s win, the Bronx’s Democratic congressman Ritchie Torres blamed “the far left”, adding that the working class was “not buying [their] ivory-towered nonsense”.

That was not true for Obeid. On Tuesday, while voting for Trump, he also chose to re-elect Ocasio-Cortez, one of the few senior New York City politicians to call for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.