Portugal’s centre-right Democratic Alliance scored a narrow win in parliamentary elections on Sunday but fell far short of a majority, turning the far-right Chega party into a potential kingmaker.
Chega, a nativist anti-establishment party led by André Ventura, notched up the biggest gains while the vote of the ruling Socialist party collapsed from a 2022 victory and the centre-right held its ground.
The result marks another important advance for the right in the EU, where conservatives have won elections or joined coalitions in Italy, Greece, Sweden and Finland in the past two years.
But it also pitches Portugal into a period of political uncertainty and potential instability.
Luís Montenegro, leader of the Democratic Alliance (AD), insisted in the early hours of Monday that he would stick to his pledge of not forming a pact with Chega, even though doing so could create a conservative majority.
“Of course I will keep my word,” Montenegro said. “I would never do such evil to myself, my party and my country as to not fulfil the commitments I made so clearly.” During the campaign Montenegro described Chega’s views as “often” racist and xenophobic.
Another way for the centre-right leader to take power is if the Socialist party (PS) opts to abstain from a parliamentary vote on the formation of a government to let him rule without Chega’s help.
The Socialists conceded defeat in the early hours of Monday, marking an end to eight years in power after a snap vote triggered by a corruption scandal that prompted the resignation of Prime Minister António Costa.
With 99 per cent of ballots counted, the Socialists had 28.7 per cent of the vote, down from more than 41 per cent in 2022, while the Democratic Alliance was marginally ahead with 29.5 per cent.
Ventura quickly began his own bid to push his way into government after winning 18 per cent of the vote — up from 7 per cent in 2022 — and cementing Chega’s place as Portugal’s third-biggest party.
“We are available to provide a stable government in Portugal,” he said. “AD asked for a majority. Today the Portuguese spoke out and said they want a two-party government from AD and Chega.”
Asked if he would call Montenegro on election night, Ventura said: “Let’s see. Now I’m going to call my mother.”
Pedro Nuno Santos, the Socialist leader, suggested that his party would enable Montenegro to take office without Chega, saying: “We will not make the formation of a government unfeasible.” But he also indicated that the Socialists would thereafter do little to help. “Don’t ask us to be the ones that support the government,” he said.
Montenegro himself said: “I understand that the PS does not identify with the programme we are going to present. What we ask of the PS is that it respects the will of the Portuguese people. What I hope is that the PS and Chega do not ally to overthrow the government.”
It now falls to Portugal’s President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to nominate a new prime minister, which he is likely to do after consulting with the parties in the coming days. The chosen candidate could take a week or two to try to form a government.
Ventura was quick to issue a plea to Rebelo de Sousa, referring to the president’s official residence when he said: “This is a victory that has to be heard in the Belém Palace.”
Santos, the Socialist leader, said: “Chega had a result that cannot be ignored. It is not the case that 18 per cent of Portuguese are racists, but there are many angry Portuguese. We want to regain the trust of these Portuguese people.”
The election was called following Costa’s resignation in November on the day police arrested five people and raided 43 government buildings and homes in a probe into alleged corruption related to investment projects. Costa has not been formally accused of wrongdoing but is still being investigated by prosecutors.
Chega has been fiercely critical of Portugal’s two mainstream parties — and the corruption scandal played perfectly into Ventura’s hands. But he has stirred more passion with his attacks on immigrants and Portugal’s small Roma community.
The election was also marked by voter anger over a cost of living crisis in which soaring housing costs — driven in part by an influx of foreign buyers — have left millions of Portuguese struggling to afford appropriate homes.
In the campaign Montenegro said the Socialists had wasted the opportunity of the parliamentary majority they won in 2022 and he rubbished the idea that the centre-left party had ended the era of austerity.
“Maximum taxes, minimum public services. What could be more austere than this?” Montenegro said. “Having an income per person that is at the bottom of the European table. What could be more austere?”
The Democratic Alliance is more moderate than many of Europe’s mainstream conservative parties, but it has vowed to break with nearly a decade of centre-left rule by cutting taxes and giving greater encouragement to the private sector.
