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Poll: 20-point deficit on handling economy highlights Biden’s struggles against Trump
Despite a growing economy and little opposition for his party’s nomination, President Joe Biden confronts a dissatisfied electorate and a challenging political climate nine months before he faces re-election, according to a new national NBC News poll.
Biden trails GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump on major policy and personal comparisons, including by more than 20 points on which candidate would better handle the economy. And Biden’s deficit versus Trump on handling immigration and the border is greater than 30 points.
The poll also shows Trump holding a 16-point advantage over Biden on being competent and effective, a reversal from 2020, when Biden was ahead of Trump on this quality by 9 points before defeating him in that election.
And Biden’s approval rating has declined to the lowest level of his presidency in NBC News polling — to 37% — while fewer than 3 in 10 voters approve of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
All together, these numbers explain why the poll shows Trump leading Biden by 5 points among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 general-election matchup, 47% to 42%. While the result is within the poll’s margin of error, the last year of polling shows a clear shift.
Perhaps the best news in the poll for Biden is that he pulls ahead of Trump when voters are asked about their ballot choice if the former president is convicted of a felony. Yet the margin then is just 2 points in Biden’s favor, also within the margin of error.
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff and his team at Public Opinion Strategies, says these findings reveal “a presidency in peril.”
“What is most concerning is the erosion of Biden’s standing against Trump compared to four years ago,” Horwitt said. “On every measure compared to 2020, Biden has declined. Most damning, the belief that Biden is more likely to be up to the job — the chief tenet of the Biden candidacy — has evaporated.”
McInturff, the GOP pollster, adds: “It is hard to imagine a more difficult set of numbers before a re-election.”
But Horwitt said that Biden still has time to change voters’ perceptions.
“Biden can take solace that we are in January and not October 2024. At this stage in prior cycles, attitudes can change,” he said.
The NBC News poll, conducted Jan. 26-30, comes after Trump won his party’s presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, as the Israel-Hamas war enters its fourth month, and amid positive news on the U.S. economy, including growing consumer confidence and more than 300,000 jobs created last month.
(The poll, however, was conducted before the U.S. military launched strikes Friday in retaliation for the killings of three U.S. service members in Jordan.)
“Inflation is coming down. Jobs are growing. We created 800,000 manufacturing jobs,” Biden boasted in Michigan on Thursday.
Despite those statistics, Trump holds a 22-point advantage over Biden on the question of which candidate would do a better job handling the economy, with 55% picking Trump and 33% choosing Biden.
When this question was last asked in October 2020 — a month before Biden’s victory over Trump — the then-president held only a 7-point advantage over Biden, 48% to 41%.
That said, the poll shows improving attitudes about the economy, with the share of voters believing the economy will get worse in the next year declining 14 points since October 2022.
Also in the poll, Trump has the edge on securing the border and controlling immigration (35 points over Biden), on having the necessary mental and physical health to be president (+23), on dealing with crime and violence (+21), on being competent and effective (+16), and on improving America’s standing in the world (+11).
Biden holds advantages over Trump on dealing with abortion (+12) and protecting immigrant rights (+17).
The two men are essentially tied on the issue of protecting democracy, with 43% of voters preferring Biden and 41% picking Trump.
Biden’s approval rating falls to new low
The NBC News poll also finds Biden’s overall approval rating dropping to the lowest point of his presidency, with 37% of registered voters approving and 60% disapproving — down from November’s score of 40% approving, 57% disapproving.
Biden’s current approval rating is the lowest for any president in the NBC News poll since George W. Bush’s second term.
In the new poll, Biden’s approval rating has declined especially among Latinos (just 35% of them now approve of his job performance), voters ages 18-34 (29%) and independents (27%).
Additionally, 36% of voters in the poll approve of Biden’s handling of the economy (down 2 points from November), 34% approve of his handling of foreign policy (down 1 point) and 29% approve of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza (down 5 points).
Among voters under 35 years old, only 15% approve of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, while a whopping 70% disapprove.
“A major through line in what ails Biden most are his travails with younger voters,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.
Measuring a Biden-Trump rematch
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in November’s presidential contest, Trump gets support from 47% of registered voters, versus 42% who back Biden.
That 5-point lead for Trump — within the poll’s margin of error — is up from November’s 2-point advantage for Trump, 46% to 44%.
It’s consistent with other recent polling, including CNN’s national survey and battleground-state polls from Bloomberg News and Morning Consult. But a recent national Quinnipiac University poll found Biden with a 6-point lead over Trump, 50% to 44%. Overall, national surveys point to a divided country in a testy mood — and a highly contested election on the horizon.
In the new NBC News poll, Biden holds the advantage over Trump among Black voters (75% to 16%), women (50% to 40%) and white people with college degrees (50% to 42%).
Trump, meanwhile, has leads among white people without college degrees (62% to 29%), men (56% to 34%) and independents (48% to 29%).
The two men are essentially tied among Latinos (Trump 42%, Biden 41%) and voters ages 18-34 (at 42% each). Among the youngest slice of voters measured, those ages 18-29, Biden has a narrow advantage (Biden 46%, Trump 38%).
But when the poll re-asks voters — on the survey’s final question — about their ballot choice if Trump is found guilty and convicted of a felony this year, the picture shifts. Biden jumps ahead of Trump among registered voters in that case, 45% to 43%. (Read more here.)
Testing Biden, Trump and third parties
In a hypothetical matchup featuring third parties, Trump’s advantage over Biden grows to 6 points, 41% to 35% — with an unnamed Libertarian Party candidate getting 5% support, an unnamed Green Party candidate getting another 5% and an unnamed No Labels candidate getting 4%.
(While the poll didn’t test a ballot including independent presidential candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, who are still seeking state ballot access across the country, it finds 34% of all registered voters saying they could see themselves supporting Kennedy and 10% saying the same of West.)
And in a hypothetical matchup featuring Biden and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the NBC News poll shows Haley leading Biden by 9 points, 45% to 36%.
Trump leads Haley by 60 points in GOP race
As for Haley and the GOP presidential race after Iowa and New Hampshire, the poll has Trump leading his former U.N. ambassador by a whopping 60 points among national GOP primary voters, 79% to 19%.
In a separate question, 61% of these Republican voters say Trump should continue as the party’s leader; 14% say Trump was a good president, but it’s time to consider other leaders; and 22% say the GOP needs a new leader with better personal behavior and a different approach.
The NBC News poll was conducted Jan. 26-30 of 1,000 registered voters — 867 contacted via cellphone — and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for the 349 Republican primary voters is plus-minus 5.25 percentage points.
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Video: Americans Exposed to Hantavirus on Cruise Ship Arrive in United States
new video loaded: Americans Exposed to Hantavirus on Cruise Ship Arrive in United States
transcript
transcript
Americans Exposed to Hantavirus on Cruise Ship Arrive in United States
Eighteen passengers who were aboard the MV Hondius, a cruise ship with a deadly hantavirus outbreak, landed in Omaha on a U.S. government medical flight. The passengers were being monitored at medical facilities in Nebraska and Georgia.
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We’re working diligently to ensure no one leaves the security in an unsecured way at an inappropriate time. No one who poses a risk to public health is walking out the front door of the streets of Omaha or beyond.
By Axel Boada
May 11, 2026
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White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting suspect pleads not guilty in federal court
The man charged with attempting to assassinate President Donald Trump at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner last month pleaded not guilty at a Monday arraignment in federal court.
Cole Tomas Allen, 31, wearing an orange shirt and trousers, was handcuffed and shackled as he was brought into the courtroom in Washington, D.C., federal court. His handcuffs were attached to a chain around his waist, which clanked as he was led to the defense table.
Speaking on behalf of Allen, federal public defender Tezira Abe said her client “pleads not guilty to all four counts as charged,” including attempting to assassinate the president of the United States, in connection with the April 25 incident at the Washington Hilton hotel.
Assistant U.S. Attorney Charles Jones advised the court that they plan to start producing their first tranche of discovery to the defense by the end of the week.
Officials said Allen, a California teacher and engineer, was armed with multiple guns, as well as knives, when he sprinted through a security checkpoint near the event where Trump and other White House officials had gathered with journalists.
He was arrested after an exchange of gunfire with a U.S. Secret Service officer who fired at him multiple times, a criminal complaint said. Allen was not shot during the exchange. The officer, who was wearing a ballistic vest, was shot once in the chest, treated at a hospital and released.
Trump and top members of his Cabinet and Congress were quickly evacuated from the room as others ducked under tables.
Allen was initially charged with attempting to assassinate the president, transportation of a firearm and ammunition through interstate commerce with intent to commit a felony, and discharge of a firearm during a crime of violence. On Tuesday, a federal grand jury indicted him on a new charge in the shooting of a Secret Service agent.
Moments before the attack, Allen had sent his family members a note apologizing and criticizing Trump without mentioning the president by name, according to a transcript of some of his writings provided to NBC News by a senior administration official. Allen also wrote that “administration officials (not including Mr. Patel)” were “targets.”
He also appeared to have taken a selfie in his hotel room. Prosecutors said Allen, who was dressed in a black button-down shirt and black pants, was “wearing a small leather bag consistent in appearance with the ammunition-filled bag later recovered from his person,” as well as a shoulder holster, a sheathed knife, pliers and wire cutters.
Officials have said they believe Allen had traveled by train from California to Washington, D.C., before checking into the hotel.
Allen’s sister, Avriana Allen, told law enforcement that her brother would make radical comments and constantly referenced a plan to fix the world, but said their parents were unaware that he had firearms in the home and that he would regularly train at shooting ranges.
Records show that he had purchased a Maverick 12-gauge shotgun in August 2025 and an Armscor Precision .38 semiautomatic pistol in October 2023.
After his arrest, Allen told the FBI that he did not expect to survive the incident, according to Assistant U.S. Attorney Jocelyn Ballantine. He was briefly placed on suicide watch at the Washington, D.C., jail, where he’s being held.
Allen is expected to appear in court for a June 29 hearing.
At Monday’s arraignment, his legal team said they plan on asking for the “entire office” of the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia to be recused because of U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s apparent involvement in the case in a “supervisory role.” Federal public defender Eugene Ohm said some of the evidence they receive from the government will further inform that decision.
News
Maps: Earthquakes Shake Southern California
Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown. The New York Times
Shake intensity
Pop. density
A cluster of earthquakes have struck near the U.S.-Mexico border, including ones with a 4.5 and 4.7 magnitude, according to the United States Geological Survey.
As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.
Subsequent quakes have been reported in the same area. Such temblors are typically aftershocks caused by minor adjustments along the portion of a fault that slipped at the time of the initial earthquake.
Aftershocks detected
Quakes and aftershocks within 100 miles
Aftershocks can occur days, weeks or even years after the first earthquake. These events can be of equal or larger magnitude to the initial earthquake, and they can continue to affect already damaged locations.
The New York Times
When quakes and aftershocks occurred
Sources: United States Geological Survey (epicenter, aftershocks, shake intensity); LandScan via Oak Ridge National Laboratory (population density) | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Pacific time. Shake data is as of Saturday, May 9 at 11:55 p.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Sunday, May 10 at 11:54 p.m. Eastern.
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