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Poll: 20-point deficit on handling economy highlights Biden’s struggles against Trump
Despite a growing economy and little opposition for his party’s nomination, President Joe Biden confronts a dissatisfied electorate and a challenging political climate nine months before he faces re-election, according to a new national NBC News poll.
Biden trails GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump on major policy and personal comparisons, including by more than 20 points on which candidate would better handle the economy. And Biden’s deficit versus Trump on handling immigration and the border is greater than 30 points.
The poll also shows Trump holding a 16-point advantage over Biden on being competent and effective, a reversal from 2020, when Biden was ahead of Trump on this quality by 9 points before defeating him in that election.
And Biden’s approval rating has declined to the lowest level of his presidency in NBC News polling — to 37% — while fewer than 3 in 10 voters approve of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
All together, these numbers explain why the poll shows Trump leading Biden by 5 points among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 general-election matchup, 47% to 42%. While the result is within the poll’s margin of error, the last year of polling shows a clear shift.
Perhaps the best news in the poll for Biden is that he pulls ahead of Trump when voters are asked about their ballot choice if the former president is convicted of a felony. Yet the margin then is just 2 points in Biden’s favor, also within the margin of error.
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff and his team at Public Opinion Strategies, says these findings reveal “a presidency in peril.”
“What is most concerning is the erosion of Biden’s standing against Trump compared to four years ago,” Horwitt said. “On every measure compared to 2020, Biden has declined. Most damning, the belief that Biden is more likely to be up to the job — the chief tenet of the Biden candidacy — has evaporated.”
McInturff, the GOP pollster, adds: “It is hard to imagine a more difficult set of numbers before a re-election.”
But Horwitt said that Biden still has time to change voters’ perceptions.
“Biden can take solace that we are in January and not October 2024. At this stage in prior cycles, attitudes can change,” he said.
The NBC News poll, conducted Jan. 26-30, comes after Trump won his party’s presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, as the Israel-Hamas war enters its fourth month, and amid positive news on the U.S. economy, including growing consumer confidence and more than 300,000 jobs created last month.
(The poll, however, was conducted before the U.S. military launched strikes Friday in retaliation for the killings of three U.S. service members in Jordan.)
“Inflation is coming down. Jobs are growing. We created 800,000 manufacturing jobs,” Biden boasted in Michigan on Thursday.
Despite those statistics, Trump holds a 22-point advantage over Biden on the question of which candidate would do a better job handling the economy, with 55% picking Trump and 33% choosing Biden.
When this question was last asked in October 2020 — a month before Biden’s victory over Trump — the then-president held only a 7-point advantage over Biden, 48% to 41%.
That said, the poll shows improving attitudes about the economy, with the share of voters believing the economy will get worse in the next year declining 14 points since October 2022.
Also in the poll, Trump has the edge on securing the border and controlling immigration (35 points over Biden), on having the necessary mental and physical health to be president (+23), on dealing with crime and violence (+21), on being competent and effective (+16), and on improving America’s standing in the world (+11).
Biden holds advantages over Trump on dealing with abortion (+12) and protecting immigrant rights (+17).
The two men are essentially tied on the issue of protecting democracy, with 43% of voters preferring Biden and 41% picking Trump.
Biden’s approval rating falls to new low
The NBC News poll also finds Biden’s overall approval rating dropping to the lowest point of his presidency, with 37% of registered voters approving and 60% disapproving — down from November’s score of 40% approving, 57% disapproving.
Biden’s current approval rating is the lowest for any president in the NBC News poll since George W. Bush’s second term.
In the new poll, Biden’s approval rating has declined especially among Latinos (just 35% of them now approve of his job performance), voters ages 18-34 (29%) and independents (27%).
Additionally, 36% of voters in the poll approve of Biden’s handling of the economy (down 2 points from November), 34% approve of his handling of foreign policy (down 1 point) and 29% approve of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza (down 5 points).
Among voters under 35 years old, only 15% approve of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, while a whopping 70% disapprove.
“A major through line in what ails Biden most are his travails with younger voters,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.
Measuring a Biden-Trump rematch
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in November’s presidential contest, Trump gets support from 47% of registered voters, versus 42% who back Biden.
That 5-point lead for Trump — within the poll’s margin of error — is up from November’s 2-point advantage for Trump, 46% to 44%.
It’s consistent with other recent polling, including CNN’s national survey and battleground-state polls from Bloomberg News and Morning Consult. But a recent national Quinnipiac University poll found Biden with a 6-point lead over Trump, 50% to 44%. Overall, national surveys point to a divided country in a testy mood — and a highly contested election on the horizon.
In the new NBC News poll, Biden holds the advantage over Trump among Black voters (75% to 16%), women (50% to 40%) and white people with college degrees (50% to 42%).
Trump, meanwhile, has leads among white people without college degrees (62% to 29%), men (56% to 34%) and independents (48% to 29%).
The two men are essentially tied among Latinos (Trump 42%, Biden 41%) and voters ages 18-34 (at 42% each). Among the youngest slice of voters measured, those ages 18-29, Biden has a narrow advantage (Biden 46%, Trump 38%).
But when the poll re-asks voters — on the survey’s final question — about their ballot choice if Trump is found guilty and convicted of a felony this year, the picture shifts. Biden jumps ahead of Trump among registered voters in that case, 45% to 43%. (Read more here.)
Testing Biden, Trump and third parties
In a hypothetical matchup featuring third parties, Trump’s advantage over Biden grows to 6 points, 41% to 35% — with an unnamed Libertarian Party candidate getting 5% support, an unnamed Green Party candidate getting another 5% and an unnamed No Labels candidate getting 4%.
(While the poll didn’t test a ballot including independent presidential candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, who are still seeking state ballot access across the country, it finds 34% of all registered voters saying they could see themselves supporting Kennedy and 10% saying the same of West.)
And in a hypothetical matchup featuring Biden and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the NBC News poll shows Haley leading Biden by 9 points, 45% to 36%.
Trump leads Haley by 60 points in GOP race
As for Haley and the GOP presidential race after Iowa and New Hampshire, the poll has Trump leading his former U.N. ambassador by a whopping 60 points among national GOP primary voters, 79% to 19%.
In a separate question, 61% of these Republican voters say Trump should continue as the party’s leader; 14% say Trump was a good president, but it’s time to consider other leaders; and 22% say the GOP needs a new leader with better personal behavior and a different approach.
The NBC News poll was conducted Jan. 26-30 of 1,000 registered voters — 867 contacted via cellphone — and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for the 349 Republican primary voters is plus-minus 5.25 percentage points.
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Supreme Court blocks redrawing of New York congressional map, dealing a win for GOP
The Supreme Court
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The Supreme Court on Monday intervened in New York’s redistricting process, blocking a lower court decision that would likely have flipped a Republican congressional district into a Democratic district.
At issue is the midterm redrawing of New York’s 11th congressional district, including Staten Island and a small part of Brooklyn. The district is currently held by a Republican, but on Jan. 21, a state Supreme Court judge ruled that the current district dilutes the power of Black and Latino voters in violation of the state constitution.
GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, who represents the district, and the Republican co-chair of the state Board of Elections promptly appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, asking the justices to block the redrawing as an unconstitutional “racial gerrymander.” New York’s congressional election cycle was set to officially begin Feb. 24, the opening day for candidates to seek placement on the ballot.
As in this year’s prior mid-decade redistricting fights — in Texas and California — the Trump administration backed the Republicans.
Voters and the State of New York contended it’s too soon for the Supreme Court to wade into this dispute. New York’s highest state court has not issued a final judgment, so the voters asserted that if the Supreme Court grants relief now “future stay applicants will see little purpose in waiting for state court rulings before coming to this Court” and “be rewarded for such gamesmanship.” The state argues this is an issue for “New York courts, not federal courts” to resolve, and there is sufficient time for the dispute to be resolved on the merits.
The court majority explained the decision to intervene in 101 words, which the three dissenting liberal justices summarized as “Rules for thee, but not for me.”
The unsigned majority order does not explain the Court’s rationale. It says only how long the stay will last, until the case moves through the New York State appeals courts. If, however, the losing party petitions and the court agrees to hear the challenge, the stay extends until the final opinion is announced.
Dissenting from the decision were Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson. Writing for the three, Sotomayor said that if nonfinal decisions of a state trial court can be brought to highest court, “then every decision from any court is now fair game.” More immediately, she noted, “By granting these applications, the Court thrusts itself into the middle of every election-law dispute around the country, even as many States redraw their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 election.”
Monday’s Supreme Court action deviates from the court’s hands-off pattern in these mid-term redistricting fights this year. In two previous cases — from Texas and California — the court refused to intervene, allowing newly drawn maps to stay in effect.
Requests for Supreme Court intervention on redistricting issues has been a recurring theme this term, a trend that is likely to grow. Earlier last month the high court allowed California to use a voter-approved, Democratic-friendly map. California’s redistricting came in response to a GOP-friendly redistricting plan in Texas that the Supreme Court also permitted to move forward. These redistricting efforts are expected to offset one another.
But the high court itself has yet to rule on a challenge to Louisiana’s voting map, which was drawn by the state legislature after the decennial census in order to create a second majority-Black district. Since the drawing of that second majority-black district, the state has backed away from that map, hoping to return to a plan that provides for only one majority-minority district.
The Supreme Court’s consideration of the Louisiana case has stretched across two terms. The justices failed to resolve the case last term and chose to order a second round of arguments this term adding a new question: Does the state’s intentional creation of a second majority-minority district violate the constitution’s Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments’ guarantee of the right to vote and the authority of Congress to enforce that mandate?
Following the addition of the new question, the state of Louisiana flipped positions to oppose the map it had just drawn and defended in court. Whether the Supreme Court follows suit remains to be seen. But the tone of the October argument suggested that the court’s conservative supermajority is likely to continue undercutting the 1965 Voting Rights Act.
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Map: Earthquake Shakes Central California
Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown. The New York Times
A minor earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 3.5 struck in Central California on Monday, according to the United States Geological Survey.
The temblor happened at 7:17 a.m. Pacific time about 6 miles northwest of Pinnacles, Calif., data from the agency shows.
As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.
Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Pacific time. Shake data is as of Monday, March 2 at 10:20 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Monday, March 2 at 11:18 a.m. Eastern.
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US says Kuwait accidentally shot down 3 American jets
The U.S. and Israel have been conducting strikes against targets in Iran since Saturday morning, with the aim of toppling Tehran’s clerical regime. Iran has fired back, with retaliatory assaults featuring missiles and drones targeting several Gulf countries and American bases in the Middle East.
“All six aircrew ejected safely, have been safely recovered, and are in stable condition. Kuwait has acknowledged this incident, and we are grateful for the efforts of the Kuwaiti defense forces and their support in this ongoing operation,” Central Command said.
“The cause of the incident is under investigation. Additional information will be released as it becomes available,” it added.
In a separate statement later Monday, Central Command said that American forces had been killed during combat since the strikes began.
“As of 7:30 am ET, March 2, four U.S. service members have been killed in action. The fourth service member, who was seriously wounded during Iran’s initial attacks, eventually succumbed to their injuries,” it said.
Major combat operations continue and our response effort is ongoing. The identities of the fallen are being withheld until 24 hours after next of kin notification,” Central Command added.
This story has been updated.
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